Bob Elliott

@BobEUnlimited • 216,988 subscribers

CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFGM, $HFEQ, $HFMF, $HFND | Fmr @Bridgewater IC | One of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments not investment advice

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The AI hyperscalers haven't shown any indication they can generate revenues from the real economy (not each other) over time that is commensurate with the current capex boom. The question is how long will it take for markets to object to such low ROI spending.

Too Little Wage Growth and Spending &amp; Too Much Inflation Today's PCE report will give an updated lens into the challenges facing income-driven expansion. Households are facing an increasing squeeze with income growth slowing and little relief on prices.

Consumers Are Bearing The Majority of Tariff Costs The PCE goods price data shows a clear shift upward in trajectory starting in January and suggests that most of the tariff cost so far is falling on the shoulders of households.

Putting PE in 401ks is just another money grab from the big private asset industry that frankly can't get anybody else to buy their assets given their illiquidity challenges.

The only thing that matters for AI's impact on GDP is whether its making people more money in the real economy. The answer for the vast majority of use cases is no, which suggests there is much more of a consumer surplus benefit than productivity enhancement.

The Housing Market Is Starting to Crack For years the housing market has almost levitated despite drags from high rates and high prices thanks to limited supply and other assets financing demand. But in recent months that's started to flip.

The AI optimists often make the case that tech will improve company margins. What they miss is in the process it will cut the incomes needed for household spending that drive companies revenues.

The asset management industry is full of consensus repeating follower types. Generating alpha requires nonconsensus thinking which almost by definition will offend most folks above who are stuck to the prevailing narrative.

No Immigration, Weak Growth Ahead The post-covid surge in immigration provided a 0.8-1% boost in real growth for the US economy. The impact of the admin's policies restricting immigration ahead are not well reflected in asset prices.

The best periods for global macro in recent years were in 2Q22 and 3Q25, two times of very different price action. That highlights how macro managers can go flexibly long and short across assets to take advantage of a wide range of circumstances. w/ Shana Orczyk Sissel "Queen of Alternatives"

If institutional investors can't make money on PE/VC/PC/RE relative to public market comps b/c the fees are too high, retail investors sure as shit don't need "access" to these types of assets.

Bonds, the dark horse of investment options these days.

Foreign Producers Are Not Paying the Tariffs Now that we are a few months into the tariff surge, we've got enough data that makes it pretty clear that foreign producers aren't cutting their prices in response to the surge in duties.

The Hard Data Read The slew of hard data released over the last couple weeks confirms a broad based slowing of the US economy. With most of the drag from tariff and immigration policies ahead, 2H25 is looking soft.

The Household Demand Problem The US expansion remains reliant on household consumption powering the rest of the economy forward. That's tough in an environment of weak job growth, slowing incomes, and elevated inflation.

For the last few months I’ve posted short videos shot while walking my dog each morning covering the most important macro theme of the day. Today’s is below. Follow me on TT or LinkedIn to get them each day if interested.

Unless these economies choose to tighten their belts (unlikely), this underlying dynamic will favor hard assets and stocks relative to bonds.

Hedge fund managers deliver pretty good returns and plenty of alpha, the problem is that nearly all of that is wiped away in fees &amp; taxes for most investors. Lower the fees and taxes and these strategies are much more compelling.

Most developed world countries have more government debt than can get paid off under current macro trajectories. There are only a few paths out: 1) much higher productivity &amp; labor force growth or 2) poor real returns on bonds &amp; currency over time.

The Fed Will Do Nothing Longer Than Most Expect The Fed decides based on the data it sees. With UE low and stable and inflation still elevated, holding policy steady is the right choice. Tariff &amp; ME conflict risks make the choice even clearer.

Too Little Wage Growth and Spending & Too Much Inflation Today's PCE report will give an updated lens into the challenges facing income-driven expansion. Households are facing an increasing squeeze with income growth slowing and little relief on prices.

Hedge fund managers deliver pretty good returns and plenty of alpha, the problem is that nearly all of that is wiped away in fees & taxes for most investors. Lower the fees and taxes and these strategies are much more compelling.

Most developed world countries have more government debt than can get paid off under current macro trajectories. There are only a few paths out: 1) much higher productivity & labor force growth or 2) poor real returns on bonds & currency over time.

The Fed Will Do Nothing Longer Than Most Expect The Fed decides based on the data it sees. With UE low and stable and inflation still elevated, holding policy steady is the right choice. Tariff & ME conflict risks make the choice even clearer.