Alfred
@CallmeAlfredo • 13,506 subscribers
Data Scientist during the day, Policy Analyst at odd hours. Views are my own.
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Since the NPP’s blame of COVID-19 for Ghana’s economic issues won’t go away, I took a few minutes of my presentation on TV3 this morning to address it. The pandemic undeniably impacted economies globally, but the extent of the damage matters. For instance, why did Ghana’s fiscal balance deteriorate so much compared to other countries in the sub-region? Before COVID-19, Ghana’s deficit wasn’t the worst in sub-Saharan Africa and was closer to the regional average. So what changed in 2020? Could election-related spending have played a role? The IMF later identified the 2020 elections as a factor in Ghana’s fiscal situation.
Alfred28,141 views • 1 year ago
Last night, I was on Ghana Tonight to share some thoughts on the ongoing debate about the Bank of Ghana’s losses linked to Goldbod’s operations. Here are some of the main points: - Any assessment of Goldbod’s impact must be comprehensive, covering both the positives and the undesirable outcomes. It cannot be about cherry-picking good news stories while spinning or discounting the downsides. The analysis must also account for costs, including environmental impacts (through galamsey) as small-scale gold volumes increase. - Under the current pricing model of buying at a premium and selling at a discount, losses are inevitable in transactions that must settle very quickly. - Profit and loss must matter to Goldbod. It cannot be only about the policy objective of generating forex reserves. If that were the case, we could put an inexperienced person in charge and, as long as forex keeps coming in, the costs would not matter. - These losses matter even more as Goldbod takes over the full operation next year. It will be operating with seed capital from the government. If losses persist, that seed capital would be quickly depleted, requiring government recapitalization. - We continue to advocate for more balanced and rigorous analysis in public policy debates and the assessment of government policies.
Alfred13,845 views • 6 months ago
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