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Are Democrats more likely to flip Kansas than Iowa?Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor thinks that might be the case. Sen. Roger Marshall (R) has arguably run the worst campaign in 2026, and Adam Hamilton (D) might be able to spring an upset in the historically red state.
1:26
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Are Democrats more likely to flip Kansas than Iowa?Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor thinks that might be the case. Sen. Roger Marshall (R) has arguably run the worst campaign in 2026, and Adam Hamilton (D) might be able to spring an upset in the historically red state.

Decision Desk HQ

38,502 views • 7 days ago

Kentucky's 6th District could be the first House bellwether on election night. Cook Political Report's Erin Covey on why this double-digit Trump seat is in play: It's open, Democrats have tied Ralph Alvarado (R) to ex-Gov. Matt Bevin, and Zach Dembo (D) is well funded. #KY06
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Kentucky's 6th District could be the first House bellwether on election night. Cook Political Report's Erin Covey on why this double-digit Trump seat is in play: It's open, Democrats have tied Ralph Alvarado (R) to ex-Gov. Matt Bevin, and Zach Dembo (D) is well funded. #KY06

Decision Desk HQ

33,276 views • 15 days ago

James Talarico (D) has led in 25 of 30 polls. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke led in just *1* through September. Talarico is up 47%-44% over Ken Paxton (R) in DDHQ's poll average. Gabby Birenbaum from Texas Tribune joined DDHQ's Geoffrey Skelley on why that trend is "impossible to ignore." #TXSen
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James Talarico (D) has led in 25 of 30 polls. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke led in just *1* through September. Talarico is up 47%-44% over Ken Paxton (R) in DDHQ's poll average. Gabby Birenbaum from Texas Tribune joined DDHQ's Geoffrey Skelley on why that trend is "impossible to ignore." #TXSen

Decision Desk HQ

46,615 views • 1 month ago

Close the other ten tabs. VOTES PRO puts results, polls and markets on one screen you design — plus the vote drop history nobody else shows you: every batch, every county, every swing.
1:24
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Close the other ten tabs. VOTES PRO puts results, polls and markets on one screen you design — plus the vote drop history nobody else shows you: every batch, every county, every swing.

Decision Desk HQ

66,978 views • 2 months ago

Strategists in both parties agree on Sen. Dan Sullivan's (R) path to holding Alaska: dent Mary Peltola's (D) favorability. The DDHQ Forecast gives Peltola a 62% chance of winning. Alaska Beacon || bsky @alaskabeacon.com reporter James Brooks joined DDHQ's Geoffrey Skelley on the race. #AKSen
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Strategists in both parties agree on Sen. Dan Sullivan's (R) path to holding Alaska: dent Mary Peltola's (D) favorability. The DDHQ Forecast gives Peltola a 62% chance of winning. Alaska Beacon || bsky @alaskabeacon.com reporter James Brooks joined DDHQ's Geoffrey Skelley on the race. #AKSen

Decision Desk HQ

20,174 views • 22 days ago

This week's DDHQ Podcast is a Redistricting Refresher. What map changes are happening? What could the Dem/GOP gains be? One wrinkle is that parties aren't always respecting the reality that the other side will eventually have a good year! Listen/watch:
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This week's DDHQ Podcast is a Redistricting Refresher. What map changes are happening? What could the Dem/GOP gains be? One wrinkle is that parties aren't always respecting the reality that the other side will eventually have a good year! Listen/watch:

Decision Desk HQ

58,384 views • 8 months ago

On DDHQ's latest podcast, Patrick Ruffini of @echeloninsights found that Senate polls in recent cycles have tended to overstate Democrats. What could this mean for their recent strong polling in key Senate races in red-leaning states like Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa?
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On DDHQ's latest podcast, Patrick Ruffini of @echeloninsights found that Senate polls in recent cycles have tended to overstate Democrats. What could this mean for their recent strong polling in key Senate races in red-leaning states like Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa?

Decision Desk HQ

20,873 views • 2 months ago

This week's DDHQ podcast: Sean T at RCP joined to talk about the consequences of the Voting Rights Act's anticipated demise. We also dug into 2030 census projections. Sean noted how post-VRA redistricting could run into incumbents' preferences and complicate future redraws.
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This week's DDHQ podcast: Sean T at RCP joined to talk about the consequences of the Voting Rights Act's anticipated demise. We also dug into 2030 census projections. Sean noted how post-VRA redistricting could run into incumbents' preferences and complicate future redraws.

Decision Desk HQ

53,676 views • 8 months ago

DDHQ's podcast had great convo with Rachel Janfaza about nuances of young Americans' more favorable view of socialism. Social programs espoused by left-wing candidates feel new to young voters & address concerns at a time when both parties' establishments seem out of touch.
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DDHQ's podcast had great convo with Rachel Janfaza about nuances of young Americans' more favorable view of socialism. Social programs espoused by left-wing candidates feel new to young voters & address concerns at a time when both parties' establishments seem out of touch.

Decision Desk HQ

22,809 views • 2 months ago

In DDHQ's latest podcast, we looked at our new governors forecast! Texas remains a red state even though #TXSen is a toss-up — that's required a blue environment + weak candidate (Paxton). Meanwhile, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has about a 3 in 4 shot of winning reelection in #TXGov.
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In DDHQ's latest podcast, we looked at our new governors forecast! Texas remains a red state even though #TXSen is a toss-up — that's required a blue environment + weak candidate (Paxton). Meanwhile, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has about a 3 in 4 shot of winning reelection in #TXGov.

Decision Desk HQ

16,682 views • 1 month ago

Dan Osborn in Nebraska. Kevin Kiley in California. What's with all these quasi-independents running for Congress? The DDHQ Podcast dug into this trend. So far, independents running effectively as stand-ins for a major party really hasn't worked.
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Dan Osborn in Nebraska. Kevin Kiley in California. What's with all these quasi-independents running for Congress? The DDHQ Podcast dug into this trend. So far, independents running effectively as stand-ins for a major party really hasn't worked.

Decision Desk HQ

46,662 views • 8 months ago

DDHQ spoke w/ FiftyPlusOne.news's Primary Project about which groups have been successful in 2026. It's can be hard to register how well groups like AIPAC have done — not always clear who they support, though they may oppose someone, like Tom Malinowski in February #NJ11 special.
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DDHQ spoke w/ FiftyPlusOne.news's Primary Project about which groups have been successful in 2026. It's can be hard to register how well groups like AIPAC have done — not always clear who they support, though they may oppose someone, like Tom Malinowski in February #NJ11 special.

Decision Desk HQ

21,890 views • 3 months ago

In our latest podcast, the DDHQ team provides an overview of our 2026 election forecast. The overall situation, how it works, and much more. #MISen looms large: -El-Sayed is more left-wing candidate -He *could* be weaker in November -R win in MI = 86% chance Rs hold Senate.
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In our latest podcast, the DDHQ team provides an overview of our 2026 election forecast. The overall situation, how it works, and much more. #MISen looms large: -El-Sayed is more left-wing candidate -He *could* be weaker in November -R win in MI = 86% chance Rs hold Senate.

Decision Desk HQ

21,821 views • 3 months ago

Maps, maps & more maps. In this week's episode of the DDHQ Podcast, Geoffrey Skelley & guest Nathaniel Rakich toured the 6 states that have redistricted their congressional maps. A big ? is Texas, where a federal judicial panel just blocked the new map.
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Maps, maps & more maps. In this week's episode of the DDHQ Podcast, Geoffrey Skelley & guest Nathaniel Rakich toured the 6 states that have redistricted their congressional maps. A big ? is Texas, where a federal judicial panel just blocked the new map.

Decision Desk HQ

57,683 views • 11 months ago

On this week's DDHQ Podcast, Erin Covey from Cook Political Report joined to talk about 2026's under-the-radar House races. Cook recently rated #TX23 as somewhat competitive, so we talked about how the race between guninfluencer Brandon Herrera (R) & Katy Padilla Stout (D) gets close.
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On this week's DDHQ Podcast, Erin Covey from Cook Political Report joined to talk about 2026's under-the-radar House races. Cook recently rated #TX23 as somewhat competitive, so we talked about how the race between guninfluencer Brandon Herrera (R) & Katy Padilla Stout (D) gets close.

Decision Desk HQ

40,332 views • 7 months ago

Before anything else happens, listen to DDHQ's chat with Michael Shepherd from Bangor Daily News about Maine's Senate race. Democrats haven't yet abandoned Platner, but the drip, drip could reach a tipping point. We also, ahem, discussed how replacing a nominee works in Maine.
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Before anything else happens, listen to DDHQ's chat with Michael Shepherd from Bangor Daily News about Maine's Senate race. Democrats haven't yet abandoned Platner, but the drip, drip could reach a tipping point. We also, ahem, discussed how replacing a nominee works in Maine.

Decision Desk HQ

30,271 views • 5 months ago

On the latest DDHQ podcast, we explored the chaotic U.S. House of Representatives. Guest Josh Huder highlighted how internal conflicts within both parties have made it harder to manage the chamber — currently Speaker Mike Johnson's problem. Watch here:
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On the latest DDHQ podcast, we explored the chaotic U.S. House of Representatives. Guest Josh Huder highlighted how internal conflicts within both parties have made it harder to manage the chamber — currently Speaker Mike Johnson's problem. Watch here:

Decision Desk HQ

48,760 views • 9 months ago

What's next in #MESen now that Graham Platner is (nearly) out? DDHQ spoke with Bangor Daily News politics editor Michael Shepherd. The new Maine Dem nominee will have 2 big challenges: Party unity post-Platner + winning over the Biden-Collins voters likely needed to flip the seat.
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What's next in #MESen now that Graham Platner is (nearly) out? DDHQ spoke with Bangor Daily News politics editor Michael Shepherd. The new Maine Dem nominee will have 2 big challenges: Party unity post-Platner + winning over the Biden-Collins voters likely needed to flip the seat.

Decision Desk HQ

23,712 views • 4 months ago

New from DDHQ: We spoke with Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate about Virginia's redistricting referendum. The YES side looks somewhat favored, but Chaz laid out what needs to happen for the NO campaign to win.
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New from DDHQ: We spoke with Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate about Virginia's redistricting referendum. The YES side looks somewhat favored, but Chaz laid out what needs to happen for the NO campaign to win.

Decision Desk HQ

35,484 views • 6 months ago