Firas Maksad
@FirasMaksad • 20,993 subscribers
Managing Director for Middle East & North Africa @EurasiaGroup; Associate Fellow @MiddleEastInst; views my own.
Videos
Rubio is visiting UAE, Kuwait, & Bahrain to offer reassurance, but the region is moving on, and is diversify away from an erratic & unreliable US. Till then, expect a mix of detente & deterrence towards Tehran. Short-term accommodations, including financial arrangements, are necessary. But to overcome the Iranian extortion trap, the GCC will significantly boost its militarily capabilities. More with Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad69,944 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce
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NOW Our view from a #Lebanon wedding. Those aren’t fireworks from #Iran to #Israel 🚀🚀
Firas Maksad744,809 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
• The GCC is over as a political entity, polarized with #UAE on one end of the spectrum, #Oman on the other. • For the first time ever, #Israel defended an Arab country, while despite much promise, #Egypt’s vaunted Air Force remained absent. • This, and the aftermath of the #Iran war, will feed further fragmentation, despite all Gulf countries being US allies attacked by Iran. More with Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad93,595 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
“We’re no longer interested in being an American satellite state. We are a regional middle power. We are a partner, even if the junior one.” (Arab Foreign Minister on background) America’s inability to bring war with #Iran to a decisive victory will further diminish US standing in the region. The alternative is not China, but greater local agency, as new regional coalitions seek greater leverage to compensate for an increasingly unreliable American partner. The full discussion PBS Nick Schifrin
Firas Maksad50,925 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Trump lumping the UAE together with Saudi & Qatar is an oversimplification & a pretext to backdown from unattractive military options. Saudi, coordinating closely with Pakistan, wants to midwife a diplomatic off-ramp. The risks on another round out-way the benefits for them. That much is clear. The UAE doesn’t seem to have reached that conclusion. Iran needs to be weakened further, as evidenced by ongoing intransigence, before they sign on to an acceptable deal. Even if/when Trump gets to a deal with Iran, GCC countries will be left to carry the burden on reaching difficult separate understandings with Tehran on drones, missiles and proxies. They are positioning to meet the day after challenge differently. Saudi is leveraging the emerging regional construct including Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt to deal collectively with the Iranian challenge. UAE is leveraging Israeli and American power. Reflecting on some of that with Becky Anderson earlier today.
Firas Maksad41,420 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Saudi - #Israel normalization is dead. Trump will proceed despite Bibi with the GCC, as he did on #Yemen ceasefire & negotiations with #Iran. Expecting big deals on president’s first foreign visit- including on issues key to US global dominance. More with the great Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad168,000 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
The Lebanon-Israel declaration is historic — a pathway to ending 80 years of official enmity. It was also deliberately designed for Hezbollah to refuse. And its leader obliged on cue today. But de-escalation leading to a ceasefire remains possible. Hezbollah is weak. Israel has established escalation dominance — seizing strategic territory and threatening to resume bombing of Beirut’s southern suburbs. The real watch point isn’t the rhetoric. It’s whether Hezbollah limits attacks to Israeli forces inside Lebanon rather than continuing to strike northern Israel. Such restraint eases Netanyahu’s domestic pressure — and clears a major stumbling block in US-Iran negotiations. More with Bianna Golodryga & Zain Asher on CNN International
Firas Maksad14,337 görüntüleme • 24 gün önce
This is what remains of the South Beirut apartment of the woman who helped raise me. She & her family were never affilaited with Hezbollah. In fact, they were once openly opposed. She now has no where to go. Real lives. Real people. Real heartbreak ❤️🩹
Firas Maksad205,064 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
The test of wills between Iran & #Israel over Hezbollah in Lebanon is not over. Israel needed to preserve deterrence by responding to Iran. It did. It also needs to demonstrate its continued freedom of action against Hezbollah, irrespective of Iran’s attempt to protect its asset in #Lebanon. So its action in South Lebanon will continue. Israel may go even further, unleashing a full military campaign against the group, including its HQ in Beirut’s southern suburbs, to reverse the current dynamic & pressure #Iran to be the one making concessions if Hezbollah is to be salvaged. While still possible, and there’s certainly domestic pressure on Netanyahu to go on the offensive, Trump’s vocal opposition makes the more aggressive scenario less likely. A full ceasefire in Lebanon becomes more likely only after a US - Iran understanding is reached. Not now. Part of the conversation with Bianna Golodryga
Firas Maksad12,089 görüntüleme • 20 gün önce
The fragile political construct in #Lebanon will not allow Netanyahu & Aoun to meet in the White House anytime soon. The ceasefire is set to come apart, as Hezbollah takes advantage of Trump publicly putting the cabash of Bibi. Hezbollah’s purposeful attacks on northern #Israel, not just occupation in the south, are a pressure cooker. ⏳💥 With Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad18,607 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
The message from Beirut: ▪️Current part war/part ceasefire benefiting #Iran, re-legitimizing Hezbollah ▪️Speaker Berri support for direct #Lebanon - #Israel talk in retreat as Hezbollah regains footing ▪️Trump - Aoun summit much more likely than one with Netanyahu ▪️Hezbollah’s disarmament will require regional understanding (#Saudi - Iran) translated locally via “new Taef.” Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad15,485 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
“Check your mineral table & let us know what you got,” senior US official to Saudi Arabia. There is no F-35 without critical minerals China weaponized against US. #Saudi securing mineral rights in Africa & processing is under appreciated aspect of MBS - Trump talks. Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad41,352 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce
A ceasefire in #Lebanon will only come about as a result of a US-led process, not an #Iran precondition. The US pressed #Israel for deescalation, but a full ceasefire will become more likely after a US - Iran deal is achieved, not before. Washington is keen to see Beirut emerge from under Tehran’s shadow. This will be a lengthy and challenging process, but a worthy one nonetheless. Glad to discuss these issues and more with Bianna Golodryga Zain Asher
Firas Maksad17,319 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
An interceptor vs drone war doesn’t bode well for President Trump. Iran is low on missiles, but has some 80,000 drones & can manufacture more. To win, he needs to aggressively target production & delivery systems, and break #Iran’s will to fight ⏳ MS NOW Chris Jansing
Firas Maksad23,187 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Direct, high-level, talks is what #Lebanon is offering #Israel. Unprecedented. Here’s the catch. Its army is resisting government pressure to clampdown on Hezbollah. Lebanon will wait for Israel to degrade Hezbollah. For US to weaken #Iran. Maybe then it can act, not just talk. Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad19,174 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
The center of gravity of the #Iran conflict will shift further towards the GCC & away from #Israel in days ahead, with important implication for energy infrastructure. The USS Ford leaving the Mediterranean for the Gulf. Here’s why, in a conversation with Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad20,100 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
This is an earthquake in the heart of the Middle East. What is happening in #Syria, won’t stay in Syria. But first/foremost, its a human moment for millions of Syrians, Lebanese & Palestinians the Ba’ath oppressed under mantra of freedom, unity & socialism. More CNN Omar Jimenez
Firas Maksad61,132 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Progress in Geneva is limited & narrow. Support for striking #Iran is wall-to-wall in #Israel, across political spectrum, taking advantage of US military muscle to defend Israel. Whether it’s Israel-led, US-led, or Israel only, war remains the most likely outcome. w/ Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad18,671 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce