(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten • 226,350 subscribers

Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories. https://t.co/9MdpDsMxJd

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(((Harry Enten)))

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What happened in NYC tonight represents a larger trend among Dems... 1. Dem Socialists (+17 pt net fav) are more popular than Dems in Congress (+4 pt net fav) with Dems. 2. Socialism's popularity with Dems is way up in the last 15 years &amp; is far more popular than capitalism.

Mamdani (vs. other Dems) is far closer to where Dems are on Israel. -Dems now heavily sympathize with the Palestinians vs. Israelis (a 47 pt shift in 2.5 years to the Palestinians). -Now 53% (vs. 34% in 2024) say AIPAC backing makes them less likely to vote for a candidate.

The LA mayor stuff is the dumbest conspiracy theory I've ever heard &amp; makes no sense. Dem establishment/Bass wanted Pratt, not Raman, to advance. Bass crushes Pratt in a 1-on-1 by 18 pt, while Raman beat Bass by 4. Pratt's the rarity in LA less popular than the unpopular Bass!

The Dems midterm warning sign is pretty clear: There are high quality polls (Ipsos, MU Law, &amp; NBC), which show Dems shy of their generic ballot benchmark in past wave years. Their Dems avg. lead is just 3 pts... &amp; Dems need a 3-4 pt win to take the House given redistricting.

The big problem with these UFC fights for Trump is that they reinforce the idea that he's is out of touch with Americans. Just 16% say these fights are appropriate. Even just 31% of the GOP do. This comes as 60% of voters &amp; 80% of indies say the White House is out of touch.

Trump's been the most transformative prez on border security... He's far more popular on it (+2 pt net approve) than Biden was (-23 pts). The GOP would love to run on this issue in Nov (a 16 pt lead on the Dems). Extending the border wall is also popular (+14 net support).

Tucker Carlson has been in absolute free fall among the GOP. His net favorable has dropped by 47 points. Meanwhile, Trump crushes Tucker among the GOP. Trump's net favorable is 54 pts higher than Carlson's. When you up against Trump, you in the grinder to quote Good Burger.

John Fetterman's had a 108 pt drop in his net approval with PA Dems since 2023. His net rating is -40 pt net approval with them. His net popularity with his own party is worse than all senators who lost a primary this century. There's no historical analog to his unpopularity.

Talarico winning in Texas is no fantasy. He's polling better than any Dem Senate nominee at this point since 2002. Unlike O'Rourke in 2018, Talarico's ahead now. Paxton's much less popular than Cruz was. Trump is less popular now than in 2018. The GOP is right to be scared.

Trump's GOP is holding on to the generational gains they made with Black voters in the 2024 election. The GOP has gained 12 pts on the Dems on party id with African Americans vs. Trump term 1 at this point. Trump's approval with Black voters is higher than it was in term 1.

Trump's not the only one who gets the vapors around Mamdani. Mamdani's net favorable rating is up to +48 pts in NYC (up from +14 in Sept). Mamdani's the most popular Dem statewide in NY too. GOP had wanted to run against Mamdani in the midterms, but they can't right now.

2026 may be the most promising midterm year for Georgia Dems this century. Ossoff is a favorite to win &amp; has raised the most $ of any Senate nominee. Bottoms has a legit shot to be gov. It'd be the 1st year GA Dems won both the Sen/Gov race in the same year since 1990!

Trump's numbers on inflation aren't just the worst for him ever. They're the worst I've seen for any president. They're worse than Biden's worst &amp; worse than Carter's pre-1980 election. On the cost of living, just 9% of indies &amp; 39% (!) of the GOP say we're on the right track.

Trump's "I love the inflation" is one of the most politically tone deaf statements I've ever heard. No prez before him ever had a -50 pt or worse net approval in an inflation poll. Trump's done it 8+ times. Trump's the only prez to ever hit 80% disapproval on gas prices.

Why this time could be different for Platner. -Google searches for him are way up in Maine &amp; hit all-time high on Sunday -Market odds have moved ~10 pt in Collins' direction -Collins has long history of beating her polls by 8+ pt Hard for Dems to win the Senate without Maine.

GOP congressmen should be saying "Oh God No!" with Trump &amp; the housing bill. Google searches for affordability are the highest ever. Trump was elected on bringing prices down. Now, 55% now say Trump's not keeping his campaign promises. Polls show this will funnel down-ballot.

The bottom has completely fallen out for Trump with Latino voters. After winning a record share for a GOP nominee in 2024, just 28% of Latinos approve of Trump now. The drop with Latino men is even more dramatic. He won em by 10 in 2024. His net approval now is -41 pts!

Well it's official: the final polls of 2024 project out an electoral map that is the closest since at least 1972 with the leader (Harris) getting 270 electoral votes. The polls were tight at the end of 2000 too, but final map projected by the final polls was Gore at 281 votes.

Trump won in 2024 because of men. They are abandoning him right now. He won men by 13 pt in 2024, but his net approval is now -7 pt with them. Men under 45: Trump won by 5 pt in 2024. Now he's 19 pt underwater with them. On cost living, he's now 30 pt underwater with men!

Americans have one message for the Bidens: Go away. Joe Biden left office tremendously unpopular &amp; remains so (-19 pt net favorable). He's by far the least popular of any former Dem prez at this point after their presidency. Jill Biden was the least popular Dem first lady.

What happened in NYC tonight represents a larger trend among Dems... 1. Dem Socialists (+17 pt net fav) are more popular than Dems in Congress (+4 pt net fav) with Dems. 2. Socialism's popularity with Dems is way up in the last 15 years & is far more popular than capitalism.

The LA mayor stuff is the dumbest conspiracy theory I've ever heard & makes no sense. Dem establishment/Bass wanted Pratt, not Raman, to advance. Bass crushes Pratt in a 1-on-1 by 18 pt, while Raman beat Bass by 4. Pratt's the rarity in LA less popular than the unpopular Bass!

The Dems midterm warning sign is pretty clear: There are high quality polls (Ipsos, MU Law, & NBC), which show Dems shy of their generic ballot benchmark in past wave years. Their Dems avg. lead is just 3 pts... & Dems need a 3-4 pt win to take the House given redistricting.

The big problem with these UFC fights for Trump is that they reinforce the idea that he's is out of touch with Americans. Just 16% say these fights are appropriate. Even just 31% of the GOP do. This comes as 60% of voters & 80% of indies say the White House is out of touch.

2026 may be the most promising midterm year for Georgia Dems this century. Ossoff is a favorite to win & has raised the most $ of any Senate nominee. Bottoms has a legit shot to be gov. It'd be the 1st year GA Dems won both the Sen/Gov race in the same year since 1990!

Trump's numbers on inflation aren't just the worst for him ever. They're the worst I've seen for any president. They're worse than Biden's worst & worse than Carter's pre-1980 election. On the cost of living, just 9% of indies & 39% (!) of the GOP say we're on the right track.

Why this time could be different for Platner. -Google searches for him are way up in Maine & hit all-time high on Sunday -Market odds have moved ~10 pt in Collins' direction -Collins has long history of beating her polls by 8+ pt Hard for Dems to win the Senate without Maine.

GOP congressmen should be saying "Oh God No!" with Trump & the housing bill. Google searches for affordability are the highest ever. Trump was elected on bringing prices down. Now, 55% now say Trump's not keeping his campaign promises. Polls show this will funnel down-ballot.

Americans have one message for the Bidens: Go away. Joe Biden left office tremendously unpopular & remains so (-19 pt net favorable). He's by far the least popular of any former Dem prez at this point after their presidency. Jill Biden was the least popular Dem first lady.