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Forward Guidance

@ForwardGuidance • 27,991 subscribers

Macro Investing Podcast Hosted by @fejau_inc Telegram: https://t.co/cccyP3IXAA

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The dollar wrecking ball could smash this year’s winners. Precious metals and other dollar-bearish trades dominated the past year, but a return to the dollar could test a lot of positioning fejau

The dollar wrecking ball could smash this year’s winners. Precious metals and other dollar-bearish trades dominated the past year, but a return to the dollar could test a lot of positioning fejau

26,298 просмотров

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NEW POD We Cover: 🔸 Bessent’s Yentervention 🔸 Arrival of state capitalism 🔸 Hyperscaler bonds 🔸 Nuclear supercycle? 🔸 Bitcoin’s turning point & more! Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau 00:00 Intro 00:58 Tyler's Farewell 04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime 06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility 15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle? 20:18 Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade 24:50 Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks? 28:48 Gold Sniffs Out The Policy Pivot 33:35 The AI Capex Boom Becomes Statecraft 40:42 Can Markets Survive The Midterms? 44:19 Regulation Builds The AI Moat 46:01 Bitcoin Enters A Cleansing Phase 50:31 How Narratives Drive Capital Flows 55:34 Final Thoughts

NEW POD We Cover: 🔸 Bessent’s Yentervention 🔸 Arrival of state capitalism 🔸 Hyperscaler bonds 🔸 Nuclear supercycle? 🔸 Bitcoin’s turning point & more! Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau 00:00 Intro 00:58 Tyler's Farewell 04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime 06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility 15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle? 20:18 Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade 24:50 Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks? 28:48 Gold Sniffs Out The Policy Pivot 33:35 The AI Capex Boom Becomes Statecraft 40:42 Can Markets Survive The Midterms? 44:19 Regulation Builds The AI Moat 46:01 Bitcoin Enters A Cleansing Phase 50:31 How Narratives Drive Capital Flows 55:34 Final Thoughts

Forward Guidance

37,451 просмотров • 19 дней назад

Bessent's Yentervention was a way to weaken the dollar without putting pressure on the long end. He used euros and alternative liquidity facilities to avoid selling Treasuries while still defending the Yen.

Bessent's Yentervention was a way to weaken the dollar without putting pressure on the long end. He used euros and alternative liquidity facilities to avoid selling Treasuries while still defending the Yen.

Forward Guidance

24,767 просмотров • 18 дней назад

Everyone bought protection. Nobody reduced risk. Put buying replaced de-risking, but elevated volatility and theta decay mean hedges bleed while longs fall. Quinn Thompson fejau “Puts haven't made any money for weeks…this is truly max pain.”

Everyone bought protection. Nobody reduced risk. Put buying replaced de-risking, but elevated volatility and theta decay mean hedges bleed while longs fall. Quinn Thompson fejau “Puts haven't made any money for weeks…this is truly max pain.”

Forward Guidance

32,394 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

What if the Greenland narrative is all about military readiness? Cem Karsan 🥐 Trump's rhetoric gives Europe political cover to ramp defense spending, deploy forces, and move onto a wartime footing without admitting that the strategic environment has already shifted.

What if the Greenland narrative is all about military readiness? Cem Karsan 🥐 Trump's rhetoric gives Europe political cover to ramp defense spending, deploy forces, and move onto a wartime footing without admitting that the strategic environment has already shifted.

Forward Guidance

38,859 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

ICYMI NEW POD: Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive We Cover: 🔸 Trump market management 🔸 Peak hawkishness? 🔸 Asymmetric rates trade 🔸 Will AI politics hit markets? Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 05:11 Trump’s Market Playbook 08:11 The Fed Pricing Trap 12:12 Volatility Positioning Unwinds 17:22 Markets Are Centrally Managed 21:48 Mag Loses Leadership 28:54 The AI Capex Risk 30:17 The Best Rates Trade 34:20 Policy Powers The AI War 38:20 Will AI Politics Hit Markets? 43:52 The AI Access Divide 50:34 The Centralization Trade

ICYMI NEW POD: Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive We Cover: 🔸 Trump market management 🔸 Peak hawkishness? 🔸 Asymmetric rates trade 🔸 Will AI politics hit markets? Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 05:11 Trump’s Market Playbook 08:11 The Fed Pricing Trap 12:12 Volatility Positioning Unwinds 17:22 Markets Are Centrally Managed 21:48 Mag Loses Leadership 28:54 The AI Capex Risk 30:17 The Best Rates Trade 34:20 Policy Powers The AI War 38:20 Will AI Politics Hit Markets? 43:52 The AI Access Divide 50:34 The Centralization Trade

Forward Guidance

12,874 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

ICYMI, Weekly Roundup out now! 🔥 We discuss: - The biggest takeaways from the Fed Minutes (QT ending?) - Bessent’s remarks on Treasury issuance and inflation - The near-term liquidity picture - The limited upside in crypto right now, and more! Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:33 FOMC Meeting Minutes 06:29 Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases 16:20 Skale Ad 16:42 Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (Con't) 20:15 Inflation Data and Fed's Perspective 22:41 Skale Ad 23:12 Liquidity Concerns and QT 27:07 Inflation and Economic Growth 29:11 Oil & Global Energy Policies 32:21 Microsoft CEO's Take on AI and CapEx 33:43 Yen & DAX 38:09 Crypto Market Update 45:02 Final Thoughts Quinn Thompson fejau Links below 👇

ICYMI, Weekly Roundup out now! 🔥 We discuss: - The biggest takeaways from the Fed Minutes (QT ending?) - Bessent’s remarks on Treasury issuance and inflation - The near-term liquidity picture - The limited upside in crypto right now, and more! Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:33 FOMC Meeting Minutes 06:29 Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases 16:20 Skale Ad 16:42 Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (Con't) 20:15 Inflation Data and Fed's Perspective 22:41 Skale Ad 23:12 Liquidity Concerns and QT 27:07 Inflation and Economic Growth 29:11 Oil & Global Energy Policies 32:21 Microsoft CEO's Take on AI and CapEx 33:43 Yen & DAX 38:09 Crypto Market Update 45:02 Final Thoughts Quinn Thompson fejau Links below 👇

Forward Guidance

49,234 просмотров • 1 год назад

Three bubbles, one revolution “Every major revolution in history has rapid technological change, accelerating nominal growth, and a sense that things are unraveling.” Vincent Deluard

Three bubbles, one revolution “Every major revolution in history has rapid technological change, accelerating nominal growth, and a sense that things are unraveling.” Vincent Deluard

Forward Guidance

19,048 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

DOGE failed. All of us all the losers because of it Jim Bianco

DOGE failed. All of us all the losers because of it Jim Bianco

Forward Guidance

28,691 просмотров • 1 год назад

NEW ROUNDUP: Commodities & Cyclicals Are 2026’s Mega-Cap Tech We Cover: 🔸 Metals supercycle 🔸 Economic re-acceleration 🔸 Trading CapEx bottlenecks 🔸 Geopolitics, tariff ruling & more! Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 03:03 Geopolitics, Reacceleration & The Metals Trade 07:52 Yield Curve Steepening 09:22 GDPNow & The Trade Deficit 13:42 Grayscale Ad 14:24 Economic Reacceleration 16:22 Market Rotation & K-Reversal 18:53 Stock-Bond Correlation Comeback? 20:40 The New G2 World 22:56 Who’s Buying Bonds? 26:50 Grayscale Ad 27:40 Small Cap & Metals Rotation 30:43 Tech & Trading The CapEx Cycle 37:26 SCOTUS Tariff Ruling 43:23 Making Moves For Midterms 46:34 Short Mag7 & Follow The Government 49:13 Commodities and Metals 51:02 Final Thoughts Links Below ↓

NEW ROUNDUP: Commodities & Cyclicals Are 2026’s Mega-Cap Tech We Cover: 🔸 Metals supercycle 🔸 Economic re-acceleration 🔸 Trading CapEx bottlenecks 🔸 Geopolitics, tariff ruling & more! Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 03:03 Geopolitics, Reacceleration & The Metals Trade 07:52 Yield Curve Steepening 09:22 GDPNow & The Trade Deficit 13:42 Grayscale Ad 14:24 Economic Reacceleration 16:22 Market Rotation & K-Reversal 18:53 Stock-Bond Correlation Comeback? 20:40 The New G2 World 22:56 Who’s Buying Bonds? 26:50 Grayscale Ad 27:40 Small Cap & Metals Rotation 30:43 Tech & Trading The CapEx Cycle 37:26 SCOTUS Tariff Ruling 43:23 Making Moves For Midterms 46:34 Short Mag7 & Follow The Government 49:13 Commodities and Metals 51:02 Final Thoughts Links Below ↓

Forward Guidance

14,685 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

ICYMI NEW POD: Why Today’s Economy Serves Assets, Not Workers We Cover: 🔸 Asset-driven feudalism 🔸 Why Main St. only had 6 days 🔸 Broken market structure 🔸 Where real growth is hiding 🔸 AI capital misallocation & more! Kuppy's Korner Tyler Neville Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:35 Economic Feudalism 06:51 Why Is Wage Growth Bad? 09:14 Malice Or Negligence? 12:28 Grayscale Ad 13:06 Global Feudalism 18:27 How Does This Unwind? 22:07 No Uses For Productive Capital 25:46 Positioning For Political Revolution 31:05 Grayscale Ad 31:52 Where Do You Invest? 38:27 Biggest Story In Macro 41:50 The Problems With US Allocators 48:50 Fixing Incentives & Finding The Bull Market 53:50 AI Boom Winners & Losers 57:27 Final Thoughts Links Below ↓

ICYMI NEW POD: Why Today’s Economy Serves Assets, Not Workers We Cover: 🔸 Asset-driven feudalism 🔸 Why Main St. only had 6 days 🔸 Broken market structure 🔸 Where real growth is hiding 🔸 AI capital misallocation & more! Kuppy's Korner Tyler Neville Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:35 Economic Feudalism 06:51 Why Is Wage Growth Bad? 09:14 Malice Or Negligence? 12:28 Grayscale Ad 13:06 Global Feudalism 18:27 How Does This Unwind? 22:07 No Uses For Productive Capital 25:46 Positioning For Political Revolution 31:05 Grayscale Ad 31:52 Where Do You Invest? 38:27 Biggest Story In Macro 41:50 The Problems With US Allocators 48:50 Fixing Incentives & Finding The Bull Market 53:50 AI Boom Winners & Losers 57:27 Final Thoughts Links Below ↓

Forward Guidance

13,394 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

🚀 ICYMI: All Roads Lead To Debasement We Discuss: 🔶 NFP & unemployment surprise 🔶 Impact of anti-immigration policy 🔶 What the BBB means for the deficit 🔶 Both political parties are terrible 🔶 EM-ification of the US & more! Timestamps: 00:00 Cold Open 04:00 Bullish NFP? 08:25 Ads (Aptos) 11:12 Anti-Immigration Impact 17:32 Wage Growth, Yields & Controlled Demolition 21:22 BBB Passed, Now What? 26:40 Ads (Aptos) 27:32 Both Sides Are Terrible 34:32 High-Yield Credit 37:17 Get Out on the Risk Spectrum 39:52 Active Treasury Issuance Greater Than QE 41:37 The Problem is Getting Worse 44:12 All Roads Lead to Debasement 46:58 Crushing Global Labor 48:52 DXY & the End of Central Banking 51:47 EM-ification of the US 54:12 MSTR & BTC Volatility 58:44 Seasonality, Leverage & Momentum 01:01:32 Symptoms of a Failed System 01:08:50 Buying vs Renting 01:13:28 Final Thoughts Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau Links Below ↓

🚀 ICYMI: All Roads Lead To Debasement We Discuss: 🔶 NFP & unemployment surprise 🔶 Impact of anti-immigration policy 🔶 What the BBB means for the deficit 🔶 Both political parties are terrible 🔶 EM-ification of the US & more! Timestamps: 00:00 Cold Open 04:00 Bullish NFP? 08:25 Ads (Aptos) 11:12 Anti-Immigration Impact 17:32 Wage Growth, Yields & Controlled Demolition 21:22 BBB Passed, Now What? 26:40 Ads (Aptos) 27:32 Both Sides Are Terrible 34:32 High-Yield Credit 37:17 Get Out on the Risk Spectrum 39:52 Active Treasury Issuance Greater Than QE 41:37 The Problem is Getting Worse 44:12 All Roads Lead to Debasement 46:58 Crushing Global Labor 48:52 DXY & the End of Central Banking 51:47 EM-ification of the US 54:12 MSTR & BTC Volatility 58:44 Seasonality, Leverage & Momentum 01:01:32 Symptoms of a Failed System 01:08:50 Buying vs Renting 01:13:28 Final Thoughts Tyler Neville Quinn Thompson fejau Links Below ↓

Forward Guidance

18,996 просмотров • 1 год назад