Invest Like the Best
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Conversations with the world's best investors, founders & domain experts / hosted by @patrick_oshag / part of @colossusmag
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Gavin Baker (Gavin Baker) says the disaggregation of inference can extend GPU useful lives from 3-4 years to 10-15. That may single-handedly save private credit and reduce the financing rates for GPUs, which will drive demand and help finance the build-out. "The disaggregation of prefill and inference is going to be amazing for the useful lives of GPU and may single-handedly save private credit. Private credit is in pain from these SaaS loans. But there's a lot of private credit in GPUs too. They were underwriting that to 3-4. The disaggregation of inference means that these GPUs are going to have 10 or 15-year lives. The AI skeptics are like, "Oh, these companies are all cooking their books. The useful life of a GPU is only a year or two. The useful life of a CPU is only four years because the rapid technological change." No. What rapid technological change has done with the disaggregation of prefill and inference is you can put a Cerebras system or Groq LPUs effectively in front of a Hopper or even an Ampere, use that Hopper and Ampere for prefill, and extend the useful life of that GPU until it melts. This is going to be really good for the whole private credit industry. It's gonna help finance the AI build-out. Because if you can start to finance GPUs at 5% or 6% instead of – I think CoreWeave's lowest financing was low sevens – that actually mathematically changes the cost to finance this build-out."
Invest Like the Best206,845 次观看 • 1 个月前
SpaceX reportedly accounts for ~45% of D1 Capital's venture and private equity book. At a $1.75T IPO valuation, that stake would be worth about $20B. When we spoke with Dan Sundheim in February, here's how he described the investment: "SpaceX was pretty obvious to me that the launch business, at a minimum, was going to be a very good business. What they had achieved, just from an engineering perspective, was insane. If I could buy a company that had achieved the most amazing engineering feat I'd ever seen, at some multiple of revenue with very little cash burn at that point, I didn't know what was going to come, I just knew that the skew was very good. The initial prognosis was just always that they were going to be a low cost provider of launch. Starship is a game changer, which we knew about fairly early on, but didn't know if it would work. And what that means, very simply, is that the cost of launching everything goes down dramatically, 97% or whatever. And the engineering that they've done with the satellites to harness solar power and be able to deliver really high-speed bandwidth has surprised me to the upside. And there's a lot of software that goes into that too, just given these networks of satellites are all communicating. The ramification of that is that the telecom market globally is now the TAM. They've come so far down the cost curve, I think that in a relatively short amount of time they're going to be dramatically cheaper than any other form of delivering broadband."
Invest Like the Best138,372 次观看 • 1 个月前
Gavin's takes on Microsoft, Google, Meta, & Amazon: Microsoft ($MSFT): "I like Satya, I admire him. He's an exceptional CEO, and I give him a lot of credit for the decisions he's made. But he did go from, "We're going to make Google dance," to being the product manager of Copilot in 3 years. The decision Satya is making now, which the market has punished him for, but I think is the right decision — who knows how fast Azure could be growing if they were willing to just sell GPUs to OpenAI. 'We're going to use our compute internally to make our own products better.' One reason Copilot was so bad, or has been so bad, is that there wasn't enough compute available. They're fixing that. He's making good decisions that are risky decisions, to position Microsoft for this world where frontier models are no longer API-accessible. It's a really courageous decision that I give him a lot of credit for. Microsoft probably would be an $800 stock today if they were using their GPUs to serve solely OpenAI and Anthropic's capacity instead of using them for their own products." Google ($GOOG): "Google was incredible last year because they had that TPU advantage, which is now gone. The reason I think they're still in a great position is they have the most compute of everyone. We talked about the value of installed bases being higher as a result of shortages — they have the biggest installed base of compute. Google I/O is this week. If they don't release something that even slightly leapfrogs OpenAI and/or Claude, that's interesting. It's not a disaster for Google, it's just interesting. Between the amount of data they have, the YouTube data, the amount of compute, the search business — Google's never not going to be in a good position. You see that with GCP going crazy." Meta ($META): "You've got to give Zuckerberg immense credit, for what he's done in terms of making Meta an AI-first company internally. He is the only one of those true internet giants to have done that. I give him a lot of credit for paying up when he did for contracts, that talent. And Muse was a really big upside surprise. It was the first model from MSL, and it's not on the Pareto frontier with xAI, Google's one entrant, OpenAI and Claude, but it's pretty close. That was very impressive to me. So Meta is in a better position — still not as strong of an absolute position as Google, but a better position." Amazon ($AMZN): "Amazon is in a really strong position because of Trainium. You're going to see real P&L efficiencies from robotics over the next 18 months in their retail business. I actually think Nova — their internal models are not where Muse is, but they're better than they get credit for. The two companies who are the most deeply engaged with startups are Amazon and Nvidia by a mile. It's going to end up being a pretty big advantage for Nvidia and Amazon — with Google right behind them — to have this engagement that you just don't see from these other hyperscalers."
Invest Like the Best52,358 次观看 • 1 个月前
Shyam explains how China thinks about conflict: "It's not enough for China to be prosperous. America must fail." "There a formidable adversary in the sense that their conception of war is deception. Our conception of war is kinetic. It's the lone heroic cowboy against the odds winning through heroism." "If you look at agriculture, it's a business decision whether you want to buy American soybeans or not. It's a different thing when you're trying to smuggle in agricultural funguses, so we can't grow soybeans. That's the shape of what's happening." "A lot of the things that are happening are below what we would consider the threshold of conflict, but it absolutely is conflict. It is system destruction warfare." "There'll be some point at which we just react. The best quote I have from Admiral is it's no longer John Boyd's OODA loop -- observe, orient, decide, act -- it's the American OODA loop -- observe, overreact, destroy, apologize."
Invest Like the Best18,828 次观看 • 3 个月前
Osmo Founder, Alex Wiltschko, on Invest Like the Best: Giving Computers A Sense Of Smell 4:25 Introduction to Plum 1.0 6:20 Synthetic Chemistry & OI 7:09 Perfumer's Organ & Fragrance Creation 8:03 Launching Generation Fragrance House 9:15 The Fragrance Design Process 12:04 AI and Olfactory Intelligence 14:59 The GCMS Machine 22:08 The Scent Printer 26:47 The Journey of a Fragrance Enthusiast 30:47 The Unsolved Problem of Scent 32:45 Applying AI to the World of Scent 33:17 Validating AI Predictions with Double-Blind Trials 39:42 The Emotional Power of Scent 49:01 Challenges & Future Prospects 59:08 The Defining Moment: Digitizing Smell 1:00:41 The Kindest Thing Anyone Has Ever Done For Alex
Invest Like the Best53,526 次观看 • 1 年前
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