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The Kobeissi Letter

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Official X account for The Kobeissi Letter, an industry leading commentary on the global capital markets. Email us: [email protected]

Shorts

The biggest lesson of the AI era: never get comfortable. On June 2nd, IBM, $IBM, was up +13% for the year and trading at its highest level on record. Today, just 42 days later, $IBM fell -25% posting its biggest daily decline since 1968. The stock is now down -35% in 42 days erasing over -$100 billion in market cap. AI is rapidly transforming the global economy. Adapt or be left behind.

The biggest lesson of the AI era: never get comfortable. On June 2nd, IBM, $IBM, was up +13% for the year and trading at its highest level on record. Today, just 42 days later, $IBM fell -25% posting its biggest daily decline since 1968. The stock is now down -35% in 42 days erasing over -$100 billion in market cap. AI is rapidly transforming the global economy. Adapt or be left behind.

563,212 Aufrufe

15 months ago, Micron, $MU, was worth just $60 billion producing $8.1 billion in quarterly revenue. Today, it's worth $1.3 trillion and producing $41.5 billion in quarterly revenue. Rarely ever does the world experience a revolution like we are seeing right now now.

15 months ago, Micron, $MU, was worth just $60 billion producing $8.1 billion in quarterly revenue. Today, it's worth $1.3 trillion and producing $41.5 billion in quarterly revenue. Rarely ever does the world experience a revolution like we are seeing right now now.

1,176,451 Aufrufe

American consumers are now facing 7%+ mortgage rates, 4.2%+ inflation, and a 30% loss in the purchasing power of the US Dollar since 2020. Meanwhile, US CPI inflation continues to follow a similar trajectory as the late 1970s. Will history repeat itself?

American consumers are now facing 7%+ mortgage rates, 4.2%+ inflation, and a 30% loss in the purchasing power of the US Dollar since 2020. Meanwhile, US CPI inflation continues to follow a similar trajectory as the late 1970s. Will history repeat itself?

1,238,127 Aufrufe

Crypto markets have now seen their largest ever 8-month decline in market cap, at -$2.3 trillion.

Crypto markets have now seen their largest ever 8-month decline in market cap, at -$2.3 trillion.

410,340 Aufrufe

Exactly 4 days ago: "Boy, Micron is great... they could invest over $100 billion in New York." Micron stock, $MU, has now added +$160 BILLION in market cap today alone. The stock is now up +1,350% since April 2025.

Exactly 4 days ago: "Boy, Micron is great... they could invest over $100 billion in New York." Micron stock, $MU, has now added +$160 BILLION in market cap today alone. The stock is now up +1,350% since April 2025.

954,220 Aufrufe

It was a historic day for markets. Over 500 million shares of SpaceX, $SPCX, were traded today, with volume exceeding $80 BILLION. SpaceX is now the 7th largest public company in the world. Congratulations to all!

It was a historic day for markets. Over 500 million shares of SpaceX, $SPCX, were traded today, with volume exceeding $80 BILLION. SpaceX is now the 7th largest public company in the world. Congratulations to all!

612,728 Aufrufe

Inflation in the US is now up to levels that were last seen after $4 trillion in pandemic stimulus was handed out for "free." The worst part? Most Americans have no idea that it is happening.

Inflation in the US is now up to levels that were last seen after $4 trillion in pandemic stimulus was handed out for "free." The worst part? Most Americans have no idea that it is happening.

630,070 Aufrufe

BREAKING: President Trump says the US will be "selling large amounts of oil" pumped from Venezuela. Trump also says US oil companies will be "reimbursed" for spending billions to build new infrastructure in Venezuela.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US will be "selling large amounts of oil" pumped from Venezuela. Trump also says US oil companies will be "reimbursed" for spending billions to build new infrastructure in Venezuela.

1,417,556 Aufrufe

President Trump effectively announces that Kevin Hassett will be the next Fed Chair. 2026 is going to be a wild year.

President Trump effectively announces that Kevin Hassett will be the next Fed Chair. 2026 is going to be a wild year.

1,218,928 Aufrufe

Warren Buffett receives a standing ovation from a sold-out arena as he announces he will be stepping down from CEO at Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett has been CEO for 55 years, making him the longest-serving CEO of any S&P 500 company. Truly incredible.

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Warren Buffett receives a standing ovation from a sold-out arena as he announces he will be stepping down from CEO at Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett has been CEO for 55 years, making him the longest-serving CEO of any S&P 500 company. Truly incredible.

1,794,185 Aufrufe

BREAKING: President Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries who opposite his plan for the US to acquire Greenland.

BREAKING: President Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries who opposite his plan for the US to acquire Greenland.

679,735 Aufrufe

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has shut down Ras Tanura, its largest oil refinery, following an Iranian drone strike. Ras Tanura processes 550,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has shut down Ras Tanura, its largest oil refinery, following an Iranian drone strike. Ras Tanura processes 550,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

507,249 Aufrufe

BREAKING: President Trump says he is announcing his new Fed Chair pick tomorrow morning.

BREAKING: President Trump says he is announcing his new Fed Chair pick tomorrow morning.

538,160 Aufrufe

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Nobody convinced me [to not strike Iran]. I convinced myself."

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Nobody convinced me [to not strike Iran]. I convinced myself."

495,172 Aufrufe

Jim Cramer warns of a potential "Black Monday" scenario this week and suggests the S&P 500 could fall 22% on Monday.

Jim Cramer warns of a potential "Black Monday" scenario this week and suggests the S&P 500 could fall 22% on Monday.

1,140,471 Aufrufe

BREAKING: President Trump says the US just received 80 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US just received 80 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil.

351,966 Aufrufe

BREAKING: President Trump reportedly tells CNN that the "big wave is yet to come" regarding US military operations in Iran.

BREAKING: President Trump reportedly tells CNN that the "big wave is yet to come" regarding US military operations in Iran.

300,047 Aufrufe

BREAKING: President Trump and China’s President Xi officially meet in person for the first time in Trump’s second term.

BREAKING: President Trump and China’s President Xi officially meet in person for the first time in Trump’s second term.

441,889 Aufrufe

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "On a scale of 0 to 10, I would say the meeting with President Xi was a 12."

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "On a scale of 0 to 10, I would say the meeting with President Xi was a 12."

434,641 Aufrufe

BREAKING: President Trump says he will announce his new Fed Chair next week.

BREAKING: President Trump says he will announce his new Fed Chair next week.

276,556 Aufrufe

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BREAKING: President Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is "over." "I don't want to deal with them anymore, they are scum," Trump says.

BREAKING: President Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is "over." "I don't want to deal with them anymore, they are scum," Trump says.

The Kobeissi Letter

1,863,787 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen

New footage captures the moment the Iranian delegation supposedly left the negotiation venue in Switzerland in "protest" over President Trump's threats VP JD Vance proceeds to speak with Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif following the Iranians' exit.

New footage captures the moment the Iranian delegation supposedly left the negotiation venue in Switzerland in "protest" over President Trump's threats VP JD Vance proceeds to speak with Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif following the Iranians' exit.

The Kobeissi Letter

2,974,312 Aufrufe • vor 26 Tagen

BREAKING: President Trump says the US is "cutting off all trade with Spain." "I don't want anything to do with Spain," Trump says.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US is "cutting off all trade with Spain." "I don't want anything to do with Spain," Trump says.

The Kobeissi Letter

670,848 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen

BREAKING: President Trump says "I love the inflation" and explains why after US CPI inflation rises to 4.2%. Trump also announces that the US has been taking oil from Iran, including 22 ships of oil "last night."

BREAKING: President Trump says "I love the inflation" and explains why after US CPI inflation rises to 4.2%. Trump also announces that the US has been taking oil from Iran, including 22 ships of oil "last night."

The Kobeissi Letter

1,818,891 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Absolutely incredible. ALL 7 hourly candlesticks on today's Nasdaq 100 chart were red as tech stocks fell in a literal straight-line lower. Biggest drop since "Liberation Day."

Absolutely incredible. ALL 7 hourly candlesticks on today's Nasdaq 100 chart were red as tech stocks fell in a literal straight-line lower. Biggest drop since "Liberation Day."

The Kobeissi Letter

1,188,846 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

BREAKING: Crypto markets have now erased -$1 TRILLION in market cap since January 14th. That's -$1 trillion in market cap in 22 days, or -$45 billion per day. There has never been more noise in capital markets than now. Eliminate the noise.

BREAKING: Crypto markets have now erased -$1 TRILLION in market cap since January 14th. That's -$1 trillion in market cap in 22 days, or -$45 billion per day. There has never been more noise in capital markets than now. Eliminate the noise.

The Kobeissi Letter

5,404,923 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "We are winning so much, that we really don't know what to do about it. People are asking me, please, please, please Mr. President, we are winning too much, we can't take it anymore."

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "We are winning so much, that we really don't know what to do about it. People are asking me, please, please, please Mr. President, we are winning too much, we can't take it anymore."

The Kobeissi Letter

3,293,418 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Absolutely incredible: Over the last 6 years, the S&P 500 has risen +130% while US Consumer Sentiment has collapsed by -55%, to its lowest since data began in 1952. We are witnessing the formation of the biggest wealth divide in modern history.

Absolutely incredible: Over the last 6 years, the S&P 500 has risen +130% while US Consumer Sentiment has collapsed by -55%, to its lowest since data began in 1952. We are witnessing the formation of the biggest wealth divide in modern history.

The Kobeissi Letter

1,019,066 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

The most costly trade of the last 12 months was investing in crypto over AI. Will that change?

The most costly trade of the last 12 months was investing in crypto over AI. Will that change?

The Kobeissi Letter

647,733 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

There has rarely been a market with more opportunity than now. The key to winning in this market? Tune out the noise. As shown in our below, our strategy has returned nearly 5 TIMES the S&P 500 since 2020, at +516.3%. And, we expect a highly eventful second half of 2026.

There has rarely been a market with more opportunity than now. The key to winning in this market? Tune out the noise. As shown in our below, our strategy has returned nearly 5 TIMES the S&P 500 since 2020, at +516.3%. And, we expect a highly eventful second half of 2026.

The Kobeissi Letter

786,153 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Our stock market dip is peanuts, that stock market is going to be doubled." Trump says the Dow is "going to hit 50,000" and double to 100,000 "in a relatively short period of time."

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Our stock market dip is peanuts, that stock market is going to be doubled." Trump says the Dow is "going to hit 50,000" and double to 100,000 "in a relatively short period of time."

The Kobeissi Letter

2,776,763 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Absolutely insane. Micron's, $MU, rally over the last 12 months makes the S&P 500's historic run look like a rounding error. What a time to be an investor.

Absolutely insane. Micron's, $MU, rally over the last 12 months makes the S&P 500's historic run look like a rounding error. What a time to be an investor.

The Kobeissi Letter

691,328 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW: Trump: "Colombia is run by a sick man, he's not going to be doing it for very long." Reporter: "So there will be an operation by the US in Colombia?" Trump: "Sounds good to me."

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW: Trump: "Colombia is run by a sick man, he's not going to be doing it for very long." Reporter: "So there will be an operation by the US in Colombia?" Trump: "Sounds good to me."

The Kobeissi Letter

2,303,538 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

There is a near-perfect correlation between US oil prices and US CPI inflation, as shown in our below analysis. Oil prices have averaged near $100/barrel since March 6th, or 79 days. The longer this persists, the more inflation we will see. Asset owners are the only winners.

There is a near-perfect correlation between US oil prices and US CPI inflation, as shown in our below analysis. Oil prices have averaged near $100/barrel since March 6th, or 79 days. The longer this persists, the more inflation we will see. Asset owners are the only winners.

The Kobeissi Letter

488,414 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

PRESIDENT TRUMP: “When the market goes up, the Fed should lower interest rates.” Fed Chair Powell “kills every rally,” Trump adds. You do not own enough assets.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: “When the market goes up, the Fed should lower interest rates.” Fed Chair Powell “kills every rally,” Trump adds. You do not own enough assets.

The Kobeissi Letter

1,626,322 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

BREAKING: President Trump says he will NOT take military action on Greenland. "I don't have to use force, I won't use force," Trump says. We are nearing step #8 of our tariff playbook.

BREAKING: President Trump says he will NOT take military action on Greenland. "I don't have to use force, I won't use force," Trump says. We are nearing step #8 of our tariff playbook.

The Kobeissi Letter

1,451,261 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

US inflation is red hot. 1. CPI Inflation: 3.8%, highest since May 2023 2. PCE Inflation: 3.8%, highest since May 2023 3. PPI Inflation: 6.0%, highest since March 2023 4. Services Inflation: 3.4%, highest since Sept 2025 5. Shelter Inflation: 3.3%, highest since Sept 2025 6. Energy Inflation: 17.9%, highest since Sept 2022 7. Gasoline Inflation: 28.4%, highest since June 2022 Inflation is reaccelerating across nearly every major category of the US economy. Are you positioned accordingly?

US inflation is red hot. 1. CPI Inflation: 3.8%, highest since May 2023 2. PCE Inflation: 3.8%, highest since May 2023 3. PPI Inflation: 6.0%, highest since March 2023 4. Services Inflation: 3.4%, highest since Sept 2025 5. Shelter Inflation: 3.3%, highest since Sept 2025 6. Energy Inflation: 17.9%, highest since Sept 2022 7. Gasoline Inflation: 28.4%, highest since June 2022 Inflation is reaccelerating across nearly every major category of the US economy. Are you positioned accordingly?

The Kobeissi Letter

379,570 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

What is happening here? The US birthrate is now down -30% since pre-2008 levels while financial wealth is at record highs. Why? Because only asset owners are able to afford this economy. As shown in our below analysis, this crisis accelerated in both 2008 and 2020. And, with every recession and every round of inflationary economic stimulus, the crisis simply accelerates even further. Now, we are seeing the biggest divergence between the S&P 500 and the US birth rate in history. The result? Tons of young Americans simply cannot afford to have kids in another sign of the "K-Shaped" economy. The US is facing a massive demographic crisis.

What is happening here? The US birthrate is now down -30% since pre-2008 levels while financial wealth is at record highs. Why? Because only asset owners are able to afford this economy. As shown in our below analysis, this crisis accelerated in both 2008 and 2020. And, with every recession and every round of inflationary economic stimulus, the crisis simply accelerates even further. Now, we are seeing the biggest divergence between the S&P 500 and the US birth rate in history. The result? Tons of young Americans simply cannot afford to have kids in another sign of the "K-Shaped" economy. The US is facing a massive demographic crisis.

The Kobeissi Letter

354,411 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

BREAKING: President Trump addresses the people of Iran: "Stay sheltered, don't leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside, bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. This will be probably your only chance for generations."

BREAKING: President Trump addresses the people of Iran: "Stay sheltered, don't leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside, bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. This will be probably your only chance for generations."

The Kobeissi Letter

930,275 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

PRESIDENT TRUMP ON IRAN: “We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. I think you'll see it's going to be a short-term excursion. Short term!”

PRESIDENT TRUMP ON IRAN: “We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. I think you'll see it's going to be a short-term excursion. Short term!”

The Kobeissi Letter

829,704 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten