Strategy Simulator
@MSTR_simulator • 11,616 subscribers
Simulating $MSTR performance against Bitcoin 🟠⚡️| Not affiliated with Strategy Inc. Not financial advice. Do your own research. Educational purposes only.
Videos
Michael Saylor believes "working hard" is for losers. "I've worked hard... and made no progress."
Strategy Simulator99,704 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
Michael Saylor expects Bitcoin to outperform equities indefinitely - even after BTC matures to a $100T market cap. "If you're expecting 12% from the S&P, you'll probably get 18% from bitcoin - 20 years out." "Right now, it's a small asset, so it's gonna grow faster."
Strategy Simulator23,468 görüntüleme • 25 gün önce
$521.50 per MSTR. This is my current base case for Strategy's price by March 31, 2028, calculated using Strategy Simulator. The calculation is based on 7 input assumptions used to produce the price. I provide each of my assumptions and the rationale for each below. 1) Bitcoin price: $126,000 I chose March 2028 because I assume BTC will return to its old all-time high at or before this date, as it did in March 2024 in the previous cycle. Bull and bear cycles are muting, but also accelerating. The bulk of a bull cycle's gains and losses are now happening well before the post-halving year. Given we're at the cycle 200WMA, the power law floor, and we tend to bottom near midterms, I believe we will make an accelerated return to the previous high within the next 18 months, aided by capital rotation out of AI. This will be followed by months of chop close to that level, like in 2024. 2) mNAV: 2.0 This is in the realm of Strategy's bull market EV mNAV based on data from last cycle. In the particular months when it broke all-time highs, EV mNAV could expand as high as 2.5X. I do not doubt that people will buy in at 1.5X to 2.5X premiums again as BTC continues ripping: in a bull market, FOMO is a helluva drug. 3) Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding: 696.7M Since the start of 2023, Strategy has increased MSTR's share count at a rate of 40.5% per year. I assume this rate continues, moving from 402M shares today to 696M by March 2028. 4) Cost of Capital: 12% I assume Strategy will return STRC to par and begin heavy issuance again in the near future. I predict they will use proceeds from STRC to retire their convertible debt and all other preferred instruments, as was alluded into in Strategy's last earnings call, bringing their overall cost of capital to a blended, uniform 12%, as reflected by the current STRC dividend rate. I don't expect this rate to change soon. 5) The Balance Sheet Senior Claims: $95.79B Bitcoin Reserve: 2,058,409 BTC USD Reserve: $28.79B Here it gets really crazy. We have two clues from management as to how much STRC they'd like to issue at any given time. Firstly, they'd like to target a 90/10 BTC-to-USD split. Secondly, they'd like to target a range 2 to 3 years of USD coverage. Based on these clues, we can calculate how much STRC Strategy will issue based on how big we expect their balance sheet to get - using my previous assumptions of Bitcoin price, mNAV, and share issuance. It gets rather complex after that, since the amount of STRC issued also impacts the balance sheet assets - so it's a reflexive relationship. Running the numbers through Claude, these figures work out to the above. The numbers may seem astronomical now, but I daresay they're likely given how fast Strategy has proven it can accumulate BTC now - even in a bear market. Strategy is becoming a "MonSTR" and will likely be a growing method by which people get their BTC exposure going forward. I expect the business model to grow and continue to be validated (yet misunderstood) with time.
Strategy Simulator19,434 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
"Cardano is opening a floodgate of options for Bitcoin." - Dan 🟠🤝🔵
Strategy Simulator24,996 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Daha fazla içerik yok.