Mario Nawfal
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S has just introduced a new rule in its war with Iran: A tanker for a tanker. If Iran attacks a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S will retaliate by hitting an Iranian tanker, and Washington has already done it. Two Iranian government tankers were struck in port this week, the first time the U.S has targeted Iranian vessels specifically in retaliation for attacks on shipping rather than to enforce its blockade. On the surface, this looks like escalation, but something stranger is happening. The enormous exchanges earlier in the war have gradually diminished into a much more limited fight centred almost entirely on Hormuz. No massive bombing campaign, and no immediate push toward regime change. Instead, both sides appear to be developing rules for an open-ended war neither is willing to end. And the underlying problem hasn't changed: Washington needs Hormuz reliably open, but Tehran only needs to prove it can still make it dangerous. Shipping traffic remains far below normal, and the IRGC responded to the latest U.S strikes by warning they would only “tighten the lock” on the Strait. So this war may actually be de-escalating in intensity while becoming more permanent in structure. That's the danger of a tanker for a tanker. It doesn't provide a way out of the war; instead, it creates rules for staying in it. Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal278,132 görüntüleme • 7 saat önce
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Alan Dershowitz and Dave Smith went 90 minutes on the Iran war, and it got as heated as you'd expect... Dershowitz argues the war was justified before the first strike, and he builds the case from 1935, the year Europe could have stopped Hitler cheaply and chose not to. Smith argues the opposite from the wars he actually lived through, Iraq to Libya, and says this one is the most reckless decision of the lot. From there it covers the ground that matters: whether any of the war's stated goals were ever reachable, what reopening Hormuz would really take, whether sanctions hit regimes or the people under them, the Netanyahu remark everyone's quoting, and Gaza. Debates like this barely exist anymore, most rooms are built so nobody has to face the strongest version of the other side. This one wasn't. Worth the full 90. Watch the full debate. Dave Smith
Mario Nawfal117,485 görüntüleme • 1 saat önce
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump warns the biggest attack of all is still waiting in the wings, but every conventional rung on the ladder has already been climbed Joe Kent joined as Jordan came under fire again and Trump posted that if Iran hits back it will be struck harder still, with something larger held in reserve. His warning ended with this: "There will be very little left of the Islamic Republic of Iran" Kent, who ran America's counterterrorism center until recently, sees a president back at square one. The strikes are the same tool that failed months ago, the strait still runs at half its pre-war flow, and the periodic-strikes plan assumes Iran absorbs punishment without answering, which Iran is disproving in real time. The trap he fears is casualties: one lucky Iranian hit forces an escalation from a toolbox the Pentagon has nearly emptied. Trump himself said yesterday there is no way he would use a nuclear weapon, which leaves the question of what "biggest of all" means unanswered. Moscow, in Kent's reading, sees the same emptiness. He explained why the CIA director's message carried no weight: "The battlefield didn't change under the Trump administration, but the rhetoric did" Joe Kent
Mario Nawfal354,527 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce
1:24
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When your Uber shift turns you into a getaway driver 🤣 Writer: Ian
Mario Nawfal4,400,996 görüntüleme • 11 gün önce
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran built a trap where every American move loses, and the oil chart has been keeping score since July Robert Pape sees the drone, the barrage and the radar strikes as one designed sequence, a catch-22 with two bad horns. Do nothing after an Iranian volley and Tehran looks stronger. Respond and Tehran out-escalates, and Washington looks weaker. Every round since mid-July has run the same way. He calls the strategy bait and bleed, and it's older than Iran. Bismarck wanted Napoleon III to attack Prussia, calculated there'd be no quick victory, bled France white for eighteen months, and modern Germany was born in the aftermath. Each American strike now burns interceptors, spikes oil and rallies Iranians around a government they were supposed to abandon. The chart is the scoreboard. Oil stayed tame for the war's first half, then turned straight up in July and hasn't looked back, and the president's ability to talk it down has vanished. As for why sanctions and hunger don't break them: "as long as they think they can win, they'll suck it up" Pape's darker forecast is that the next target won't be a base but the Gulf's governments themselves, whose central banks hold American debt. Robert A. Pape
Mario Nawfal119,278 görüntüleme • 3 saat önce
1:07
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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's answer spread to Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain in a single night, while the American strikes meant to stop it hit radars that will likely be rebuilt by the weekend Larry Johnson joined as sirens went off in Kuwait, drones reached Bahrain, missiles fell on Jordan and the US consulate in Erbil was reportedly targeted. Iran's promised twelve-fold rule is being enforced in real time, and Larry's source says the CENTCOM battle staff has been stood back up, which in his words means you are going to war. Washington's side of the exchange hit radars, mine-laying gear and communications along the entire Iranian coast. Larry's problem with that is history: the same campaign ran for three weeks a month ago, satellites showed the radars back within days, and the weapons that matter never surface for a strike anyway: "they're launching out of caves. They're not destroying the caves" Meanwhile Treasury insisted 17 million barrels crossed the strait yesterday on the same day Brent spiked, and the Financial Times reported Russia has been secretly helping Iran build supersonic cruise missiles since 2023, the kind that make every ship in the Gulf harder to defend. SonofNewAmericanRevolution
Mario Nawfal285,602 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Oil is back near $95. Japanese bond yields are surging. U.S. 30-year yields are back around levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis. And Philip Pilkington thinks we're watching the early stages of something much bigger. His argument is that the pressure has moved beyond individual geopolitical shocks and become structural. Treasury is trying to suppress long-term borrowing costs. The Fed is signalling tighter policy. Japan is struggling to defend the yen. Meanwhile, the Iran war is pushing energy prices higher and adding another inflationary shock. Pilkington says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is effectively trapped between the bond market and the Federal Reserve, while Trump's own policies are making the inflation problem harder to contain. And he thinks the usual tricks are running out. Bessent is now publicly pressuring Japan to raise rates and unwind the carry trade, which Pilkington calls an “admission of defeat” for Treasury's attempts to stabilize the situation itself. His warning is extreme: If current trends continue, he fears a serious financial crisis within 3 to 6 months, potentially the worst episode of financial instability the U.S. has faced since the Great Depression. And Washington is escalating against Iran right in the middle of it. Pilkington's concern isn't simply that the war could cause the crisis, but that the financial system may already be entering one, and the war is pouring oil on it. Philip Pilkington
Mario Nawfal308,097 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran war has turned from a fight about Tehran's nuclear program into a battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is trying to prove it can break Iran's grip on shipping through the Strait, while Tehran is just as determined to prove that it can't. And that's created an extraordinary cycle, with both sides threatening to make the next round even bigger. The most worrying change, though, is Iran's calculation. Earlier in the conflict, Tehran appeared determined to avoid giving Washington an excuse to escalate. Now, parts of the Iranian leadership may no longer fear being struck at all. A limited U.S attack gives Iran justification to hit back harder while forcing America to burn through more munitions and expensive air defenses. It's as if Tehran WANTS Trump to strike them. And Washington has its own version of the same trap: backing down risks looking like Iran forced America out of one of the world's most strategically important waterways. So both sides increasingly have reasons to believe the next escalation improves their position, yet neither appears capable of delivering the decisive blow that actually ends this. That's what makes Hormuz so dangerous now: the question isn't who wants a full-scale war. It's whether either side still believes it can afford to be the first one to stop. Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal299,013 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce
🇺🇸🇻🇪 Trump wants to refill America's oil reserve with Venezuelan crude, and the math says the well is far too small for the hole Raymond Zucaro, an emerging-markets fund manager with family in Venezuela, started with the arithmetic. Venezuela pumps about 1.2 million barrels a day, up 50 percent since Maduro's removal, and might reach two million in a year with real investment. Hormuz has been taking roughly ten million a day off the world for six months. The reserve sits at a 40-year low. Nothing about that adds up. The 65 billion figure is reserves, not deliveries: a no-bid, 100-year concession over Venezuela's oil handed to a single company, one year longer than Britain's lease on Hong Kong's New Territories. Since the government changed, roughly $15 billion in oil revenue has been generated and about half has reached the country. The fields are intact, unlike Kuwait's in 1991, so the oil is recoverable with capital. Raymond doubts who provides it, after two nationalizations: "I don't think ExxonMobil is going to go in for a third time" Which points at the deal's real audience. Tehran reads a century-long concession and offshore revenue as the shape of surrender, and a country that survived zero exports during Covid and the killing of its leader concludes that fighting costs less. Ray Zucaro Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal244,364 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is now trapped in a war he can't win, easily leave, or escalate without falling into Iran's trap America went to war over Tehran's nuclear program, yet months later, U.S Tomahawks are hitting Iranian islands because Washington still can’t force open the Strait of Hormuz. Military analyst Elijah Magnier says Trump has ended up exactly where Iran wants him. The nuclear program has disappeared from the negotiations, so has Iran’s missile program, and even its support for regional allies is no longer the immediate issue. The fight has come down to something much more fundamental: who controls safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. And Elijah argues that's a fight Iran is uniquely equipped to drag out. America can bomb radars, launchers and facilities along Iran’s coast, and it can clear mines and escort tankers. But Iran only needs a few drones, missiles or mines to demonstrate that Washington still cannot guarantee safe navigation. Every time America declares the Strait secure, Tehran gets another opportunity to prove it isn't. Now Trump is reportedly considering periodic strikes, but what will that achieve? Iran already considers itself at war, so more bombing gives Tehran another opportunity to retaliate, disrupt shipping and keep the economic and political cost rising. Unless those bombs can reopen Hormuz and force Tehran to concede, Trump isn't demonstrating that he has an answer. He's showing that he's run out of them. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
Mario Nawfal293,646 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce
🇺🇸🇺🇦 Bessent just blamed Ukraine for the fuel prices hitting Americans, and the diesel shortage has a stranger source closer to home Larry Johnson joined as the Treasury Secretary offered a new explanation for the pump. On camera, Bessent said upward pressure on prices comes partly from Kyiv's strikes on Russian refineries: "Ukraine has decided that they want to blow up Russian energy assets" Larry's diesel research points somewhere Bessent didn't. American refineries are producing plenty, but substantial volumes are being shipped abroad, to Israel and to the US military according to his sources, which he can't independently confirm. If true, the squeeze on farmers and truckers is partly a paper shortage of Washington's own making: "the United States is creating its own shortage" The global shortage is real, and Russia made it worse by halting its own diesel exports, though two Americans just back from driving Vladivostok to Moscow report fuel everywhere and no crisis. The bigger picture came from two summits. At the G20 in North Carolina, China reportedly refused to sign a declaration that Hormuz must be open. At the SCO in Bishkek, India joined Russia and China in calling the strait Iran's business. Larry calls the new world multimodal, many neurons firing at once, and for the next two weeks those neurons meet in Vladivostok and Delhi with no American in the room. SonofNewAmericanRevolution Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal99,623 görüntüleme • 3 saat önce
🇨🇳🇷🇺 India, China, Russia and Pakistan just condemned America's strikes on Iran in a joint declaration, and the system they're building to ditch the dollar is a recipe for American inflation The Shanghai Cooperation Organization closed its summit in Bishkek with a declaration most Americans never saw: condemnation of the US strikes, a defense of Iran's right to nuclear energy, rejection of all unilateral sanctions against members, settlement of trade in national currencies, and a new SCO development bank. Andy Schectman, who has spent 36 years in the metals trade, says the point isn't a bloc that replaces the dollar. It's a system built to work without it. Payment rails that bypass SWIFT, gold-settlement vaults from Mumbai to Moscow, a Hong Kong exchange that converts yuan into physical gold the same day, and a land corridor linking India, Iran and Russia that no navy patrols, which is part of how Iran keeps trading under blockade. Central banks, he notes, are buying gold at record pace and underreporting it, and Poland's central bank chief explained why: in a world where every record is electronic, someone can pull the plug. Andy's version of the same idea: "If you hold your wealth in dollars, it's like holding a melting ice cube" Andy Schectman Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal234,584 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Even the hawks think Washington had Iran exactly where it wanted it, until the order came to hit back Admiral Mark Montgomery, retired Navy flag officer and no dove, backed the original strike without hesitation: Iran had rehearsed launching sea mines from those rocket batteries, Trump had warned two months ago he'd strike anyone who tried, and he did. Iran's answer, eight missiles at Jordan, all failed. That, in his view, was the moment to stop: "We had it exactly where we wanted" The blockade is choking 95 to 99 percent of Iran's oil, the rial is sinking, and escorted ships running dark on the Omani side have restored 65 to 70 percent of pre-war flows by tracker estimates. Every new strike lowers that number and shifts Iran's fire onto Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, which can't intercept what America can. His deeper worry is the formal objections filed by commanders. The Pacific faces 18 months without a carrier, the Navy's deployable destroyers are sliding from 40 percent toward 25, and the last time a Gulf buildup ran this long, January 2017 arrived with no carrier ready to sail for the first time in 70 years. The president acknowledged the objections and moved on, as presidents do. The bill lands in 2029, on whoever sits in the chair next. Mark Montgomery Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal218,313 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce
1:15
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🇺🇸 This absolute monster named Tesfaye Cooper, the same thug who tortured a disabled teenager on Facebook Live, is back on the streets. The twist?? He just got arrested again... okay, who am I kidding? Of course he was. He chased down a cyclist who simply waved at him, beat him, spat on him, screamed “Gangster Disciples,” and stole his bike. Released after only 7 years for the first savage attack. In a saner penal system, this predator would never see daylight again. Disgusting. Lock him up for good. Source: Collin Rugg
Mario Nawfal57,698,441 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump says the U.S is going to “hit Iran hard,” while Tehran is warning that from now on, every American attack will be met with a response “dozens of times greater.” That's an extremely dangerous change in the rules of this war. The latest U.S strike was deliberately limited: American forces hit rocket launchers on Larak Island that CENTCOM says were preparing to deploy sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. Iran didn't respond proportionally; it launched a much larger barrage of missiles and drones toward U.S positions in the region. And that's the part that matters. Earlier in the war, Iran largely calibrated its responses because it still believed there was a deal to be made with Washington. That calculation appears to be disappearing, because Tehran believes America no longer possesses the escalation dominance it had at the beginning of the war. And Iran is now willing to prove it by deliberately responding harder than it gets hit, meaning Trump now faces a brutal dilemma. If he doesn't respond after publicly promising to “hit them hard,” Tehran can portray it as proof that American threats have lost their force. But if he does hit Iran hard, Tehran is explicitly threatening to escalate even more, and warning that no target in the region is beyond its reach. The most dangerous assumption Trump could make now is that the U.S still gets to decide where the escalation ends. Iran's telling him it has a say in that. Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal336,090 görüntüleme • 2 gün önce
🇺🇸🇮🇷 America destroyed one rocket launcher with a single drone, and Iran answered with 515 missiles Andreas Krieg zeroed in on the mismatch. Washington chose a drone rather than an airstrike, deliberately small, hoping to stop the mine-laying without provoking much. Tehran replied with a strategic barrage across Jordan, US naval targets and the UAE. "This is a different regime from the regime that we saw in 23, 24 and early 25" They no longer wait, and they no longer answer in proportion. Which exposes the flaw in the periodic-strikes plan Axios describes. Andreas reads that leak as pressure rather than policy, and warns that telling Iran you'll hit it whenever you please, mid-negotiation, only convinces Tehran the Americans must be pushed out of the region entirely. His deeper point should worry every Gulf capital. Iran doesn't aim at Israel because Israel absorbs punishment. It aims at the Gulf because the Gulf breaks first and picks up the phone to Washington. A retired Navy captain wrote in Military Times that losing the Bahrain base equals "losing an aircraft carrier" Meanwhile Riyadh is quietly seeking $8 billion in new loans. Fifty years of punishment never bent Iran once. The only deterrent left is making the Gulf too tough to hurt, and that takes years nobody has. Dr Andreas Krieg
Mario Nawfal316,477 görüntüleme • 2 gün önce