Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal • 3,732,557 subscribers
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Anyone who thinks a ground invasion of Iran is a serious possibility needs to watch this... Matt Bracken is a former Navy SEAL and spec ops veteran, and he just delivered one of the most sobering comparisons I've heard yet: Kharg Island is the size of Iwo Jima, where the U.S. pounded the island with battleships for WEEKS before landing 70,000 Marines... and still lost 7,000 lives and had 19,000 wounded in a single month. Qeshm Island is bigger than Okinawa, which took 3 months and cost 12,000 American lives. Iran has had decades to tunnel these islands, study U.S. tactics, and prepare for precisely this scenario, and unlike Japan in WWII, they have precision missiles that can reach every inch of the Persian Gulf. "If we went into Iran, I think we will lose everybody we send in, the more we send in, the more we lose, and the Iranians have been very open about saying, come on in, we welcome you." Matt ended by saying rationality is out the window, and that this started with a February 28th sneak attack, so nothing should be considered off the table. Great talking to you, Matt Bracken
Mario Nawfal358,504 Aufrufe • vor 4 Stunden
🚨🇯🇴 🇮🇷 The missile that killed two American soldiers in Jordan also damaged multiple U.S. aircraft, both manned and unmanned... -Per the WSJ, manned and unmanned American aircraft were hit in Iran's attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, where hundreds of U.S. personnel and dozens of warplanes have staged strikes on Iran -The most alarming detail: U.S. officials say Iran has ADAPTED, firing missiles that travel at extremely high speeds and maneuver as they descend, with concerns the regime is getting targeting help from CHINA or Russia -The base is defended by THAAD, America's most advanced missile shield, and the salvo still got through to housing units and flight lines -Washington's answer is reinforcement: F-16s from Germany, stealth F-35s from England, and more tankers are all rushing to the region -Iran formally withdrew from the MOU Saturday, with Mojtaba warning of "unforgettable lessons" if strikes continue Source: Wall Street Journal, OSINTdefender / Writer: Daniel
Mario Nawfal675,094 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
🇮🇱🇮🇷 Trump stopped a 50 plane Israeli strike on Iran with pilots already in their cockpits, and the plan is still sitting there loaded Three to four weeks ago, roughly 50 Israeli jets were set for a massive strike on Iran, some pilots already strapped in, when Trump called it off at the last moment. Israeli journalist Amichai Stein carried the story: the plan, he says, still exists, the targets are still standing, and Israel wants to finish the mission. The buildup around him points the same way. More than 60 American refueling aircraft have landed in Israel with 16 F-16s on the way. Which means the machinery for a much bigger air war is being assembled on Israeli soil. His trigger logic is dark and simple. Israel wants in, and it takes one of two things: Iranian fire landing on Israel, or Washington asking. Either one "opens the game completely," because Israel flies without limitations, Tehran included, and the US gets dragged the rest of the way. And the exit? He sees none. The MOU was already the minimum deal in existence, nothing smaller is left to sign, and after two dead American soldiers Trump cannot walk anything back. His forecast, delivered from Jerusalem: all out war. Amichai Stein
Mario Nawfal542,064 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The worst case for this war now has a number: $250 oil and 11% inflation by the fall Edward Dowd ran money at BlackRock and now models exactly this kind of shock, and his May call, $125 oil peaking then rolling over, played out in print. The new worst case: Gulf energy infrastructure starts coming apart, oil runs toward $250 FAST, and his model puts inflation between 8 and 11 percent by early fall. The mercy in the math: prices that high destroy demand so quickly they cannot hold, and the spike itself tips the world into recession. Which means Sunday night is the thing to watch. Markets have learned this war's rhythm, escalation talk on weekends, then a headline about Iran wanting a deal before futures open. The first weekend that pattern breaks, this becomes a different market. The home fuse is credit. The AI buildout leaned on private credit for its financing, and that market has gone cold, withdrawals frozen and early bankruptcies landing. Credit ends every party; stocks find out last. His compass has one needle: "Watch the price of oil and it'll tell you how the war is going." The baseline stays a painful but ordinary recession, on one condition. Oil under $100. But it is climbing. Edward Dowd
Mario Nawfal465,412 Aufrufe • vor 23 Stunden
The U.S. and Iran signed the same document, read it completely differently, and now the Middle East is on fire again... Former JCPOA negotiator Robert Malley broke it all down for me: Paragraph five, on Hormuz administration, was the fault line. Iran read it as confirmation of their control over the strait, the U.S. read it as guaranteeing free flow of commerce. The moment either side tested that ambiguity, the deal was ALWAYS going to unravel. "You could drive an aircraft carrier through the ambiguities, every paragraph could be read in a thousand different ways." On Iran striking Gulf civilian infrastructure: they simply want to demonstrate that attacking Iran carries a price, paid in dollars by U.S. allies and the world economy. On Trump's strategy: "His mindset always seems to be, if I strike them they'll cry uncle, if they don't cry uncle I'll strike them harder, and in this case he is DEAD wrong." On what comes next: "He is capable of doing a 180 and deciding tomorrow, you know what, we're out of there." Also discussed: the CNN report that Trump has agreed to allow Saudi to enrich uranium w/out the international safeguards designed to prevent nuclear weapons development. And what that signals about where this war is actually heading... Great speaking with Robert Malley
Mario Nawfal249,292 Aufrufe • vor 7 Stunden
🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Tehran's newest warning names Dubai and Abu Dhabi directly: bomb Iranian bridges again, and the Emirates' airports and ports get hit The reported threat goes further. Per a claimed Iranian military source, a phased plan runs all the way to the region's power plants and desalination facilities, with Kuwait named as stage one, and two of Kuwait's eight desalination plants already knocked out. Every capital in the Gulf now has a line item in Iran's escalation ledger. Larry Johnson's answer to whether that deters Trump came in two parts: no, it won't stop him, and yes, Iran will follow through. What actually ends this, in his reading, is arithmetic rather than threats. Casualties coming home, pump prices creeping, and munitions stocks he insists sit in the low thousands, not tens of thousands, with no production surge available to refill them. The detail that stuck was a retreat nobody announced. A $250 MILLION Triton surveillance drone, chased out of Jordan by repeated missile strikes, now sits in Sicily, too far from Iran to fly the missions it exists for. Larry reads the Jordanian bases as weeks from unusable, which pushes American operations toward Israel, and makes Israel a target for the first time in this round. On the ground-move chatter, he relayed Professor Marandi's argument that summer heat alone shoves any island landing past the midterms. His forecast: tomorrow bigger, Monday bigger still... SonofNewAmericanRevolution
Mario Nawfal474,426 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
CENTCOM confirmed it mid-interview: two U.S. service members killed in Jordan, one missing, four medevaced. Trump's own stated red line, crossed on the record. Professor Marandi's answer was that the number is higher than that and it doesn't matter anyway. American lives aren't holy to Iranians, he said, and Trump's red lines mean nothing in Tehran. The targeting map made more sense once he laid out the logic. Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan getting pummeled because that's where the American assets sit. Saudi got hit because Saudi airspace and airbases are in use. The UAE stays quiet because of months of quiet diplomacy and, likely, money. Same read Alan gave me. Two very different people arriving at the same answer about the Emirates. On the ground offensive he was more careful than I expected. He called it mental and said it would fail, and two former senior U.S. officers he spoke to agreed the summer humidity makes it a bad idea. But Iranian military officials read the bombing pattern as shaping for exactly that. So: crazy, unlikely, still possible. Seyed Mohammad Marandi
Mario Nawfal493,259 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
🇹🇭 An 11-year-old in northeastern Thailand drove his parents' pickup truck into a single line procession of monks, killing 8 and seriously injuring 10 more today. It's not yet clear what led up to this horrendous tragedy. May they rest in the peace they already found. Writer: Mhedi
Mario Nawfal10,773,709 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen
When American soldiers die and the president's response is "it happens, it's just one of those things," retired generals takes notice. Maj. Gen. Randy Manner and I had a wide-ranging conversation today about where we are, and where we're headed in this war. "This is probably the highest risk situation I've heard of so far in the Middle East over the past several months." He says the fact America has committed 1/4 to 1/3 of its refueling capability to a single theater is a real indicator of what's to come... On a potential ground operation to secure the Strait of Hormuz: "...a course of action I would NEVER recommend, ever... absolute insanity." On Iran's true capabilities: "They aren't acting illogically compared to the U.S., they have the capability to sink a U.S. warship, they're choosing not to." What comes next: "I am now upping my probability to very, very high, things are going to get really bad THIS coming week..." Great having the Major General back on...
Mario Nawfal191,279 Aufrufe • vor 6 Stunden
🇪🇺 Europe is down to less than a month of jet fuel, and airlines are already starting to cut flights Europe's jet fuel cover just fell below a month, the lowest of any major market, and airlines in some pockets are already trimming schedules. Jeff Snider watches the airlines as this war's canary, and the canary is coughing. His map of the damage runs through the refinery, which is why crude at $82 undersells the problem. Refineries starved of crude wind down slowly and restart slower, the profit for turning oil into fuel just hit record highs, US gasoline stocks sit at mid 2010s lows after America exported fuel to plug holes abroad, and China is importing 41% LESS crude than last June, cooling oil prices while starving the world of diesel and jet fuel. The real energy shock is still ahead. Turns out the forecast is grimmer for being calmer. No 1929 rerun, since 2008 already cleaned out the banks. Instead, the silent depression the world has lived in since 2008 finally gets its 1970s fuel lines, and a world "somewhat short of 1929 is not a good place to live in." His clock is the hard part. This cannot run five years; it ends, one way or another, by New Year. And food prices join the story in the back half regardless.
Mario Nawfal350,168 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington may be running the Syria playbook on Iran: chip away for years and wait for the breakthrough CENTCOM has confirmed it: two American soldiers were killed defending Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan against Iranian missiles and drones, one more is missing, and AP calls them the first US deaths from direct Iranian fire since the war's opening days. That is the exact red line Trump once said would mean full war. The same day, Iran declared the MOU dead, placed every Kuwaiti power and desalination plant in its "target bank," and set a deadline: strikes past Monday end the tit for tat entirely. Alex Christoforou of The Duran has one big takeaway, and it stretches the clock. The decision to break Iran was made long ago, and the model is Syria: sanctions, strikes, and proxies grinding away for as long as it takes. "Think of it as a bigger Syria." Round one hit the nuclear sites, round two chased regime change, and round three is a straight fight for Hormuz. The catch: Washington waited TEN YEARS for its breakthrough in Syria, and that strategy never had to survive $100 oil with a draining strategic reserve. Neocons don't do economics, and this time the economics vote. His darkest worry is water. If desalination keeps getting hit on both sides, the Gulf tips toward a humanitarian catastrophe, and nobody is drawing that guardrail. Alex Christoforou
Mario Nawfal358,620 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran just claimed another high-value American target. Footage appears to show an Iranian missile shooting down a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper over southern Iran yesterday Each one is worth more than $30 million and one of Washington's most important intelligence and surveillance assets. Source: Tabz, Tasnim News / Writers: Mhedi, Ian
Mario Nawfal238,623 Aufrufe • vor 14 Stunden
Alan Eyre wouldn't give the escalation a start date, and that was the point: trace the causal chain back far enough and blame dissolves. What's left is the cycle itself, and no one visible trying to break it. No Qatari shuttle, no Turkish channel, no Omani back door. Both sides letting the military talk. The ledger from the last 72 hours reads like the spring's red lines being run in sequence. The U.S. took out the Jask desalination plant, leaving roughly ten thousand people without water, and spent the week isolating Bandar Abbas by dropping the bridges into it. Iran answered by striking Kuwait's desalination plant, a power station, and the NPK crude export facility. Then came the warning that reframed the night: evacuate Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports, plus Fujairah and Jebel Ali, if American strikes hit civilian infrastructure again. Alan thinks they'd do it. His reasoning was about Iranian fear, not confidence. Tehran is losing a corrosive war of attrition. The tell is in the weapons: fewer rockets and drones, more anti-ship cruise missiles they can't easily replace. That suggests the coastal campaign is working, making escalation more likely, not less. Push oil toward $120, rattle markets, make Trump feel something. Alan was blunt on Trump: coercion needs a believable off-ramp, and Tehran doesn't believe he'll honor one. Still, two developments point the other way. The Majlis quietly replaced two hardliners on the Foreign Affairs Committee with moderates, and the MOU remains suspended rather than dead after the release of a detained Iranian-American. Iran is keeping a door cracked while it burns the house down. On Mojtaba: 6% dead, 75% disfigured and injured enough to limit day-to-day function. The silence changed Alan's assessment. Disfigurement explains no video. Nothing explains no audio. Alan Eyre
Mario Nawfal356,884 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
🚨🇮🇷🇯🇴 2 Iranian ballistic missiles reportedly struck in a second wave of attacks the Jordanian Army did not intially acknowledge. This came after 3 reported interceptions over the Red Sea city of Aqaba, with a 4th reported falling in a remote area. Source: MES (Telegram) / Writers: Samuel, Michael
Mario Nawfal191,044 Aufrufe • vor 10 Stunden
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran may be one announcement away from quitting the nuclear treaty and unveiling a weapon Lawrence Wilkerson, Colin Powell's former chief of staff, opened with what his generation of officers keeps telling him near the end: they never expected to live long enough to see the country in this shape. He raised an Iranian nuclear weapon five times in one conversation, more than in any appearance before, and when asked why, he laid out the case. In his read, the decision came after the funeral and moved through every body that needed to approve it, ending with Iran's parliament. The fallback, per his sourcing, runs through Islamabad and possibly Beijing. And Tehran can exit the Non-Proliferation Treaty any morning it chooses with its legal case already written: we complied with everything, we were punished anyway, now we leave. He believes the door on talks is closed for good: "The next thing they'll do is show us that they have a nuclear weapon." His arithmetic for disarming Iran by force instead: 2.5 MILLION troops, years of occupation, trillions spent, in a country the size of Western Europe. Anything smaller gets fed in piecemeal and lost. Meanwhile the one officer with the legal power to walk into the Oval Office and force the truth, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, has not visibly used it. Powell used it twice and won both times. Asked which scenario worries him most, he did not pick the bomb. He picked Iran turning its new precision onto the machinery the world economy runs on, Saudi export terminals above all, and put a date on the fallout: global depression by fall.
Mario Nawfal486,673 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen
🇺🇸 Tucker got chills: "I have known writers on the Simpsons… they're not yogis.” He reacts to yet another eerie Simpsons “prediction” blowing up online, and dives into why this 30+ year-old cartoon keeps nailing real-world events with scary accuracy. Coincidence… or something way stranger? The Simpsons reputation is getting impossible to ignore. Tucker Carlson / Writer: Val
Mario Nawfal433,549 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag
🇮🇱🇵🇸 Roger Waters to Tucker: “I believed the propaganda… then I went there. I saw the apartheid, I saw what was happening. I’ll never forget it. If you’re an Arab, you’re not allowed on the road. They created hell on Earth.” This is why they try to cancel anyone who tells the truth. Source: Tucker Carlson / Writer: Val
Mario Nawfal221,455 Aufrufe • vor 19 Stunden