Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal • 3,736,174 subscribers
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Anyone who thinks a ground invasion of Iran is a serious possibility needs to watch this... Matt Bracken is a former Navy SEAL and spec ops veteran, and he just delivered one of the most sobering comparisons I've heard yet: Kharg Island is the size of Iwo Jima, where the U.S. pounded the island with battleships for WEEKS before landing 70,000 Marines... and still lost 7,000 lives and had 19,000 wounded in a single month. Qeshm Island is bigger than Okinawa, which took 3 months and cost 12,000 American lives. Iran has had decades to tunnel these islands, study U.S. tactics, and prepare for precisely this scenario, and unlike Japan in WWII, they have precision missiles that can reach every inch of the Persian Gulf. "If we went into Iran, I think we will lose everybody we send in, the more we send in, the more we lose, and the Iranians have been very open about saying, come on in, we welcome you." Matt ended by saying rationality is out the window, and that this started with a February 28th sneak attack, so nothing should be considered off the table. Great talking to you, Matt Bracken
Mario Nawfal791,225 次观看 • 1 天前
🇺🇸🇮🇷 America isn't fighting Iran over the Strait of Hormuz; it's fighting to stop Tehran from proving that U.S. control of the Middle East can be broken. Most people still think this war is about ships, oil, or transit fees, but military and political analyst Elijah Magnier says it stopped being about that a long time ago. According to him, Washington believed it could strip Iran of its greatest source of leverage by moving Gulf shipping away from the Iranian-controlled channel and through Oman instead. He says they fundamentally misunderstood how Iran thinks. Tehran could negotiate over uranium enrichment, frozen assets, and it could even tolerate parts of the Memorandum of Understanding being chipped away, but Hormuz was never negotiable. For twenty years, Iran lived under sanctions while the rest of the world largely carried on as normal. Now, for the first time, Tehran has a way to make everyone else feel the consequences too. Its message is simple: If we cannot export our oil normally, then nobody else in the Gulf will either. That is why Elijah believes this war has become much bigger than a dispute over a shipping lane; the U.S is now fighting for its reputation. Because if Iran proves that it can defy Washington, absorb U.S military power and still dictate the terms of navigation through one of the world's most important chokepoints, every American ally and adversary will draw the same conclusion. U.S dominance is over. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
Mario Nawfal331,921 次观看 • 6 小时前
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trump signed the MOU himself; nobody twisted his arm, and now there's no version of this where he walks away clean. Defense analyst Pravin Sawhney lays out why this stopped being Israel's war the moment America joined the strikes on Feb 28, and Iran shut the Strait 48 hours later. His read is that U.S. munitions reserves are running thin. Although the rate of use is nowhere near the first campaigns tempo, there’s no fast refill coming. Iran swapped missile guidance from GPS to China's BeiDou-3 in January. It gives their missiles much better accuracy, they’re hypersonic and highly maneuverable, fired from underground sites spread across the country. And the Gulf's soft spot is water. Kuwait is 90% desalination-dependent, and Saudi is 70%. Iran already proved it can reach them. "The petrodollar is at the heart of the American empire" If Trump walks away and he risks the dollar's grip on global energy slipping. Stay and he bleeds a military that can't hold the tempo, in a region where Iran can eat damage that its neighbours can't. Is Trump choosing between winning and losing, or just picking which way to lose? Pravin Sawhney
Mario Nawfal319,554 次观看 • 8 小时前
🇺🇸🇮🇷 America is fighting Iran like it has years to win, but it may only have weeks before the global economy starts collapsing around it. Most people are still comparing Iran to Iraq, Afghanistan or Vietnam, and former U.S Navy SEAL Matt Bracken says that's a fatal mistake. In those wars, America could spend years burning money, munitions and lives before eventually deciding to leave. This war doesn't give Washington that luxury, because every week it continues, the world economy loses more oxygen. The U.S can't simply fight for another decade and then fly home, because the battlefield isn't confined to Iran; it's the entire global trading system, and that's before you even get to the military economics. Every inexpensive drone and ballistic missile forces the U.S and its allies to launch interceptors worth millions of dollars: it's an exchange ratio that heavily favours Iran. Even if Washington succeeded in turning Iran into a failed state, Matt argues the price could be catastrophic. For more than a century, U.S and British strategy was built around controlling the world's sea lanes and preventing the great powers of Eurasia from consolidating. Now, he argues, America's foreign policy has done the opposite. Russia, China and Iran are drawing closer together. At the same time, cheap long-range missiles and drones are pushing the U.S Navy farther away from hostile coastlines. America once projected power deep into Asia with gunboats, but today, Matt argues, even non-state actors can force billion-dollar warships to keep their distance. Matt Bracken
Mario Nawfal244,536 次观看 • 5 小时前
🇺🇸 Oil is spiking like the 1970s but the economy underneath looks like 2008, and the latest inflation report just showed it George Gammon read the week's strangest number as a warning. Oil spiked, yet core inflation, the basket outside food and energy, came in flat, meaning families are covering the pump by cutting everything else. That is demand destruction arriving early. His frame is 2008. Oil hit $140 that summer, inflation jumped, and two months later rates sat at zero inside a deflationary bust. The deciding variable both times: whether banks kept lending. They are risk off now, and by his count 95 percent of recent lending growth is AI buildout spending and borrowed stock bets. Strip that out and credit falls off a cliff. The wild part? He cited a report from Korea's melt up: ONE IN 30 South Koreans, the count including toddlers and grandmothers, wiped out in margin calls. Private credit runs the same leverage stacking, marked at full value inside black boxes nobody can open. And the war just reached the market that does not do drama. Long term rates are climbing faster than short ones, plain English for the bond market pricing a longer war and stickier prices while stocks shrug. His verdict on the AI economics ran four words: "that dog don't hunt." George Gammon
Mario Nawfal195,770 次观看 • 3 小时前
🇹🇭 An 11-year-old in northeastern Thailand drove his parents' pickup truck into a single line procession of monks, killing 8 and seriously injuring 10 more today. It's not yet clear what led up to this horrendous tragedy. May they rest in the peace they already found. Writer: Mhedi
Mario Nawfal10,773,709 次观看 • 18 天前
🚨🇯🇴 🇮🇷 The missile that killed two American soldiers in Jordan also damaged multiple U.S. aircraft, both manned and unmanned... -Per the WSJ, manned and unmanned American aircraft were hit in Iran's attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, where hundreds of U.S. personnel and dozens of warplanes have staged strikes on Iran -The most alarming detail: U.S. officials say Iran has ADAPTED, firing missiles that travel at extremely high speeds and maneuver as they descend, with concerns the regime is getting targeting help from CHINA or Russia -The base is defended by THAAD, America's most advanced missile shield, and the salvo still got through to housing units and flight lines -Washington's answer is reinforcement: F-16s from Germany, stealth F-35s from England, and more tankers are all rushing to the region -Iran formally withdrew from the MOU Saturday, with Mojtaba warning of "unforgettable lessons" if strikes continue Source: Wall Street Journal, OSINTdefender / Writer: Daniel
Mario Nawfal685,276 次观看 • 2 天前
The U.S. is running out of places to park its aircraft. Fmr CIA Larry Johnson ran the list live on air. Prince Sultan in Saudi, no. Al Dhafra in the UAE, no. Al Udeid, Bahrain, absolutely not. Ali Al Salem in Kuwait, no. Jordan is already being emptied out. Every option is inside the envelope of missiles that have gotten dramatically more accurate. So everything flows into Israel. Over a hundred refueling tankers, F-35s, F-15s, F-16s. Which makes Israel the next target on the list. His words. And when I asked whether Israel joins the war: yes, and about a week and a half later they'll be begging to get out of it. Same as the 12-day war, except Iranian missiles are far more accurate now than they were then. Watch what's already happening. Iran hit an airport in southern Jordan, nine miles from an Israeli base hosting American tankers. Debris got intercepted over Israel. Israeli media read it exactly the way it was meant to be read: a warning shot. And the thing that got least attention today may matter most. The U.S. struck the Darkhovin site, a civilian nuclear plant under construction, under safeguards. Iran's standing position is that if their nuclear facilities get hit, they go after Israel's. Bridges weren't struck yesterday. The Gulf states all issued de-escalation statements in unison. Trump promised the gates of hell and nothing followed. Then CENTCOM announced the 9th round while we were still on air. SonofNewAmericanRevolution
Mario Nawfal319,639 次观看 • 23 小时前
The U.S. and Iran signed the same document, read it completely differently, and now the Middle East is on fire again... Former JCPOA negotiator Robert Malley broke it all down for me: Paragraph five, on Hormuz administration, was the fault line. Iran read it as confirmation of their control over the strait, the U.S. read it as guaranteeing free flow of commerce. The moment either side tested that ambiguity, the deal was ALWAYS going to unravel. "You could drive an aircraft carrier through the ambiguities, every paragraph could be read in a thousand different ways." On Iran striking Gulf civilian infrastructure: they simply want to demonstrate that attacking Iran carries a price, paid in dollars by U.S. allies and the world economy. On Trump's strategy: "His mindset always seems to be, if I strike them they'll cry uncle, if they don't cry uncle I'll strike them harder, and in this case he is DEAD wrong." On what comes next: "He is capable of doing a 180 and deciding tomorrow, you know what, we're out of there." Also discussed: the CNN report that Trump has agreed to allow Saudi to enrich uranium w/out the international safeguards designed to prevent nuclear weapons development. And what that signals about where this war is actually heading... Great speaking with Robert Malley
Mario Nawfal372,641 次观看 • 1 天前
🇮🇱🇮🇷 Trump stopped a 50 plane Israeli strike on Iran with pilots already in their cockpits, and the plan is still sitting there loaded Three to four weeks ago, roughly 50 Israeli jets were set for a massive strike on Iran, some pilots already strapped in, when Trump called it off at the last moment. Israeli journalist Amichai Stein carried the story: the plan, he says, still exists, the targets are still standing, and Israel wants to finish the mission. The buildup around him points the same way. More than 60 American refueling aircraft have landed in Israel with 16 F-16s on the way. Which means the machinery for a much bigger air war is being assembled on Israeli soil. His trigger logic is dark and simple. Israel wants in, and it takes one of two things: Iranian fire landing on Israel, or Washington asking. Either one "opens the game completely," because Israel flies without limitations, Tehran included, and the US gets dragged the rest of the way. And the exit? He sees none. The MOU was already the minimum deal in existence, nothing smaller is left to sign, and after two dead American soldiers Trump cannot walk anything back. His forecast, delivered from Jerusalem: all out war. Amichai Stein
Mario Nawfal555,042 次观看 • 2 天前
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The first nuclear use since 1945 could be sold as a harmless demonstration shot on an empty Iranian mountain... Pickaxe Mountain sits on the reported target list, buried too deep for conventional bombs, and a scenario circulating among military analysts goes like this: a nuclear bunker buster, framed as an underground demonstration against a remote site not yet fully operational, few casualties, maximum message. Karen Kwiatkowski, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, was asked whether that pitch could actually land. Her answer was the alarming part: yes, easily, because it arrives dressed as restraint, no treaties bind Washington anymore, and the word demonstration does all the reassuring. What follows, in her read, is the part nobody prices. Iran answers the unthinkable with resolve, treating the broken taboo as final proof of who it faces, and its nuclear armed friends, North Korea among them, need only hand over a device or two. Her rendering of Tehran's reply was ice cold: "Let us show you who we are." Her larger warning frames the week. Iran's campaign has run like a textbook, radars first, then logistics, then maintenance, pushing America farther out with every strike. A power squeezed that methodically starts reaching for shortcuts, and the demonstration shot is the shortcut she fears most. Karen Kwiatkowski Brandon Weichert
Mario Nawfal119,503 次观看 • 2 小时前
The oil market is being manipulated to hide a CRISIS that's already here, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will hit critical levels BEFORE the midterms... Economist Philip Pilkington returns with his most alarming assessment yet: If Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb, and the Gulf pipelines are all disrupted simultaneously, that is roughly 20-22% of world oil supply offline... His comparison for what that looks like? COVID. "You'd have to shut down about a fifth of global economic activity, fuel rationing, QR codes for diesel, military doing school runs, it's the same as the lockdowns without the masks." China just ended its 60-day oil purchasing pause and is moving back toward 12 million barrels a day, which he believes was always the deadline after which Beijing would return to the market regardless of any deal. The crack spread on diesel is already significantly higher than the diesel price itself, meaning the actual cost of fuel delivery is far above what futures markets show. Whoever is suppressing the paper oil price is prolonging the war by giving Trump a false picture of the energy situation. On negotiations: "It's become completely controversial now to even talk about diplomacy in Iran, and I think the Americans have pretty much reached the point where they may actually not be able to negotiate." On where this ends: "My underlying assumption is anything that can be hit will eventually be hit, we might be waiting for Godot here, not TACO." "We're definitely in the retarded simulation now, for sure." Philip, we might be, but at least we have you to explain it Philip Pilkington
Mario Nawfal307,177 次观看 • 1 天前
3 Americans died in 48 hours. Trump has spent months promising overwhelming force if that ever happened. He's said almost nothing. That silence was the thing Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller kept circling. Either the president doesn't want to escalate... or the quiet is cover for what's already moving. Refuelers, F-15s, F-16s, F-35s flowing toward Israel. Not the coastal campaign Centcom has been running. Something much wider. Wars end, Miller said, when 3 things become true at once: both sides stop believing time is on their side, both stop believing escalation helps, and the pain becomes intolerable. Zartman called it the hurting stalemate. Washington and Tehran currently meet zero of the 3. Both think they're winning. Both think escalation is an asset. Both think they can take it. The clock isn't comforting either. Uppsala studied every interstate war since 1815, the average is 4 to 5 months. Past that, they turn into Ukraine. We've gone from near-silence since June 17th to 8 straight days of kinetic. And there's no deal to reach for. This is now a war about the strait, and Miller can't build a version where both sides leave the table feeling they won rather than got conned. He's blunt about the machinery too: Witkoff and Kushner running 3 of the hardest files on earth by phone. Then the asymmetry that decides all of it. For America this isn't existential. For the IRGC, whose entire position after the war depends on how the war ends, it is. Small powers with everything at stake outlast large ones with something at stake. Russia can't break Ukraine. Israel couldn't break Hamas or Hezbollah. Trump can't break Iran. He left me with LBJ, 1968: a hitchhiker in a Texas hailstorm. Can't run, can't hide, can't make it stop. Aaron David Miller
Mario Nawfal289,166 次观看 • 1 天前
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The worst case for this war now has a number: $250 oil and 11% inflation by the fall Edward Dowd ran money at BlackRock and now models exactly this kind of shock, and his May call, $125 oil peaking then rolling over, played out in print. The new worst case: Gulf energy infrastructure starts coming apart, oil runs toward $250 FAST, and his model puts inflation between 8 and 11 percent by early fall. The mercy in the math: prices that high destroy demand so quickly they cannot hold, and the spike itself tips the world into recession. Which means Sunday night is the thing to watch. Markets have learned this war's rhythm, escalation talk on weekends, then a headline about Iran wanting a deal before futures open. The first weekend that pattern breaks, this becomes a different market. The home fuse is credit. The AI buildout leaned on private credit for its financing, and that market has gone cold, withdrawals frozen and early bankruptcies landing. Credit ends every party; stocks find out last. His compass has one needle: "Watch the price of oil and it'll tell you how the war is going." The baseline stays a painful but ordinary recession, on one condition. Oil under $100. But it is climbing. Edward Dowd
Mario Nawfal472,153 次观看 • 1 天前
When American soldiers die and the president's response is "it happens, it's just one of those things," retired generals takes notice. Maj. Gen. Randy Manner and I had a wide-ranging conversation today about where we are, and where we're headed in this war. "This is probably the highest risk situation I've heard of so far in the Middle East over the past several months." He says the fact America has committed 1/4 to 1/3 of its refueling capability to a single theater is a real indicator of what's to come... On a potential ground operation to secure the Strait of Hormuz: "...a course of action I would NEVER recommend, ever... absolute insanity." On Iran's true capabilities: "They aren't acting illogically compared to the U.S., they have the capability to sink a U.S. warship, they're choosing not to." What comes next: "I am now upping my probability to very, very high, things are going to get really bad THIS coming week..." Great having the Major General back on...
Mario Nawfal319,612 次观看 • 1 天前
🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Tehran's newest warning names Dubai and Abu Dhabi directly: bomb Iranian bridges again, and the Emirates' airports and ports get hit The reported threat goes further. Per a claimed Iranian military source, a phased plan runs all the way to the region's power plants and desalination facilities, with Kuwait named as stage one, and two of Kuwait's eight desalination plants already knocked out. Every capital in the Gulf now has a line item in Iran's escalation ledger. Larry Johnson's answer to whether that deters Trump came in two parts: no, it won't stop him, and yes, Iran will follow through. What actually ends this, in his reading, is arithmetic rather than threats. Casualties coming home, pump prices creeping, and munitions stocks he insists sit in the low thousands, not tens of thousands, with no production surge available to refill them. The detail that stuck was a retreat nobody announced. A $250 MILLION Triton surveillance drone, chased out of Jordan by repeated missile strikes, now sits in Sicily, too far from Iran to fly the missions it exists for. Larry reads the Jordanian bases as weeks from unusable, which pushes American operations toward Israel, and makes Israel a target for the first time in this round. On the ground-move chatter, he relayed Professor Marandi's argument that summer heat alone shoves any island landing past the midterms. His forecast: tomorrow bigger, Monday bigger still... SonofNewAmericanRevolution
Mario Nawfal479,265 次观看 • 2 天前
