Mark
@Mark4XX • 37,262 subscribers
Curious about global affairs and finance Enthusiast of gold, silver, commodities and resource stocks
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GOLD AND SILVER FACE SHORT-TERM PRESSURE BEFORE MASSIVE UPSIDE Veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie and Dario, host of the JustDario Cigar podcast,have both mapped out the same clear divergence. Short-term weakness in gold and silver looks likely even if peace talks advance, driven by specific selling flows and the oil situation. Yet the medium- and long-term forces are aligning for immense upside through tighter physical supply and monetary expansion. THE SHORT-TERM WEAKNESS FACTORS ➡️ Turkey’s central bank is selling gold reserves to defend the lira amid a deepening monetary crisis. ➡️ India is offloading gold to secure dollars for oil imports while the rupee weakens under high energy costs. ➡️ Retail investors in Japan and Korea are rotating out of precious metals into stocks showing stronger recent performance. ➡️ Relief rallies remain largely speculative bets on a fast resolution to the oil crisis rather than broad fundamental demand. THE MEDIUM-TERM PHYSICAL SUPPLY TIGHTENING ➡️ Higher energy prices will sharply raise mining and refining costs for both gold and silver. ➡️ Silver production, mostly a byproduct of other metals, will face reduced output as energy-intensive operations squeeze margins. ➡️ Miners will need materially higher prices simply to cover elevated costs and keep supply flowing. ➡️ This setup repeats the pattern seen after the 1970s oil crisis, when precious metals prices surged once supply constraints fully emerged. THE LONG-TERM MONETARY AND DEMAND DRIVERS ➡️ Producer price inflation above 6 percent will eventually pass through to consumers as companies protect their margins. ➡️ Central banks will continue providing ample liquidity to support massive global debt loads and avoid systemic stress. ➡️ Chronic silver deficits near 150 million ounces per year collide with rising industrial demand from EVs, solar, and electronics that cannot be recycled economically at current prices. ➡️ As Jeff Currie highlights, the dedollarization story is still early, with massive upside for gold once monetary conditions turn supportive. THE BOTTOM LINE Peace deal or not, short-term downside pressure on gold and silver is probable until the oil crisis stabilizes and immediate selling pressures ease. The combination of physical supply constraints, persistent inflation, and structural monetary growth creates one of the strongest long-term setups in decades. The same forces that propelled precious metals higher after the 1970s oil shocks are aligning again today from an even stronger base. HT: Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ JustDario #Gold #Silver #PreciousMetals #SupplyCrunch #InflationHedge #Dedollarization #OilCrisis
Mark46,751 次观看 • 1 天前
PAKISTAN FOREIGN MINISTER'S SECRET MESSAGE TO RUBIO: IRAN WILL DEMONSTRATE A NUCLEAR BOMB In a development that has flown under the radar of mainstream reporting, well-connected former CIA intelligence agent Larry Johnson has come forward with a direct warning from the highest levels. Pakistan's foreign minister personally delivered a message to Secretary Marco Rubio on Friday stating that Iran is prepared to demonstrate a nuclear weapon should the current escalation continue. This revelation, which Johnson is racing to confirm with his sources, introduces a terrifying new dimension to the conflict that few have anticipated. THE STARTLING MESSAGE DELIVERED ➡️ Pakistan's foreign minister delivered a direct message to Marco Rubio stating that Iran will do a demonstration with a nuclear weapon. ➡️ This would be detonated in a way to send a message to both Israel and the United States. ➡️ Larry Johnson explained that this move comes if the current escalation continues without resolution. THE CRITICAL UNKNOWN ➡️ It is not clear if this is a nuclear weapon developed by Iran or one given to Iran by Pakistan or North Korea. ➡️ The former CIA agent said he does not yet have the answer to that critical question. ➡️ Either way the ability to demonstrate it marks a dangerous new reality in the standoff. THE BOTTOM LINE This intelligence from a highly connected ex-CIA operative places the specter of an Iranian nuclear demonstration at the heart of the current crisis, turning what was a conventional standoff into something far more perilous. The world is now on notice that one side may soon cross a line that changes the rules of engagement forever. #IranNuclear #LarryJohnson #ExCIA #NuclearDemonstration #PakistanWarning #RubioAlert #EscalationRisk HT: YouTube Judge Napolitano
Mark187,035 次观看 • 13 天前
CHEVRON CEO: PHYSICAL OIL SHORTAGES HAVE BEGUN AND PRICES WILL FOLLOW Chevron CEO Mike Wirth just delivered a blunt assessment that cuts through the market noise. Traders keep crude pinned between 90 and 100 dollars because they believe the Strait of Hormuz crisis is almost over. The physical facts on the ground tell a far more dangerous story of collapsing inventories and shortages that have already arrived. THE MARKET PSYCHOLOGY TRAP ➡️ Traders see the conflict as closer to the end than the beginning and expect flows to resume very quickly. ➡️ That belief has kept the back end of the futures curve artificially low. ➡️ The psychology has so far prevented prices from moving toward the much higher levels the supply shock would normally justify. THE INVENTORY REALITY ➡️ Crude and product inventories are steadily drawing down in locations around the world right now. ➡️ June and July are going to be critical months as the trajectory heads straight toward the bottom. ➡️ The data shows a clear and concerning path that cannot be wished away. THE SHORTAGE EVIDENCE ➡️ Physical shortages have already appeared in some Asian markets. ➡️ "We've seen some rationing" and adjusted workweeks imposed in affected countries. ➡️ The system carries powerful inertia and turning it around will not be easy or fast. THE US TIGHTNESS ➡️ Distillate fuel inventories in the United States have reached their lowest levels since 2003. ➡️ Refineries are running at maximum utilization while record exports continue to support allies. ➡️ Seasonal demand is rising into an already extremely tight market. THE UNPRECEDENTED SCALE ➡️ Twenty percent of the world's energy production has been cut off for nearly 100 days. ➡️ A billion barrels that should have been in the market are simply not there. ➡️ This is not a normal cycle and the usual patterns may not apply in the usual way. THE BOTTOM LINE Mike Wirth makes it clear that the current price calm rests on hope rather than physical reality and the risk of genuine shortages spreading is rising fast. The calm before the storm is ending. #OilShortages #ChevronCEO #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #InventoryCrash #AsiaRationing #USDistillateLow
Mark207,294 次观看 • 16 天前
90 PERCENT PAPER GOLD: INSIDER FROM GOLDMAN AND JP MORGAN REVEALS THE REAL BACKING The Swiss Tonia Zimmermann from S spent decades structuring derivatives at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Credit Suisse before co-founding her financial platform. She just laid out exactly what paper gold really is and why the gap between paper promises and physical metal matters more than most investors realize. The numbers she shared turn conventional gold ownership on its head. What happens when everyone finally demands the real thing at once? THE PAPER GOLD EXPLAINED ➡️ Paper gold and paper silver are derivatives, mainly futures contracts that let traders buy or sell metal at a set future price without ever moving physical bars today. ➡️ These paper instruments generate daily trading volumes many times larger than the entire annual global mine production of gold or silver. ➡️ Because the paper market is so enormous, it alone drives price discovery for actual physical metal across the world. THE FRACTIONAL BACKING SHOCK ➡️ Gold accounts at banks function exactly like cash accounts and are not 100 percent backed by real metal in the vault. ➡️ Typical reserves sit between 10 and 20 percent, so for every seven ounces an investor believes they own, only about one ounce may actually exist in physical form. ➡️ Futures contracts work the same way: only a small margin is required, not the full value of the gold. THE PHYSICAL DELIVERY CRISIS ➡️ The entire system runs without issue as long as clients never actually demand physical delivery from their gold accounts or futures positions. ➡️ The moment broad physical demand hits, whether through bank accounts or major exchanges, only around 10 percent of the claimed gold is truly available in metal. ➡️ "The faster one wins," she noted, describing exactly who gets the real gold when a rush begins. THE CREDIT FOUNDATION OF EVERYTHING ➡️ Our whole economy creates assets and money through credit, meaning every piece of wealth has a matching debt created somewhere else in the system. ➡️ If debts across the board must be reset or wiped, the corresponding wealth on the other side disappears at the same moment. ➡️ This credit mechanism is why paper gold can trade at such extreme multiples of real physical supply without immediate problems. THE BOTTOM LINE Paper gold creates the comfortable feeling of ownership while resting on a thin slice of actual metal and endless credit creation. The day physical demand tests the structure, the gap between promises and reality becomes impossible to ignore. Insiders have always known the difference. The rest of the market is about to find out. HT: YouTube Rohstoff Investor #PaperGold #PhysicalGold #FractionalReserves #GoldAccounts #FuturesReality #DeliveryRisk #CreditSystem
Mark68,455 次观看 • 5 天前
GOLD PRICE SLIDES BUT SWISS GOLD DEMAND EXPLODES: NEGATIVE RATES THREAT RETURNS AS CITIZENS FLEE TO PHYSICAL GOLD Gold prices have fallen steadily for weeks after January's record peak, yet Swiss gold dealers report customers lining up in numbers not seen for a long time. People are treating the lower prices as a chance to buy rather than a reason to stay away. This surge arrives just days before the Swiss National Bank delivers its key rate decision on June 18, a move that could change what happens to savings sitting in bank accounts across the country. THE GOLD PRICE PARADOX ➡️ Gold currently costs around 108 Swiss francs per gram, with the ounce near 4,200 dollars, down slightly on easing Gulf news. ➡️ Many who bought near the top now sit on months of losses. ➡️ The drop has not scared buyers off. It has pulled them in because the metal simply costs less than it did six months ago. THE CENTRAL BANK SIGNAL ➡️ Private buyers are not acting alone. ➡️ Central banks in China, India, and Turkey have shifted large parts of their reserves from dollars into gold at a scale unseen in years. ➡️ When major states quietly move away from paper currencies they publicly defend, the action reveals more than any headline. THE ZERO RATE TRAP ➡️ The Swiss National Bank holds its key rate at zero percent, making new borrowing almost free. ➡️ Its director has stated the hurdle for negative rates is higher, yet the bank stands ready to reintroduce them if needed to fulfill its mandate. ➡️ Negative rates reverse the rules: savers pay the bank instead of earning interest on their money. THE STRONG FRANC PRESSURE ➡️ Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have lifted the Swiss franc as a classic safe-haven currency. ➡️ A stronger franc makes Swiss exports more expensive abroad, squeezing pharmaceuticals, machinery, and watches. ➡️ Negative rates become one tool to ease that pressure, but the cost lands on ordinary savers. THE GOLD ATTRACTION ➡️ At zero or negative rates, money in bank accounts slowly loses value over time. ➡️ Gold does not depend on central bank rate decisions to protect its worth. ➡️ This difference explains why many now see physical metal as the clearer store of value. THE BOTTOM LINE The rush to physical gold in Switzerland while prices fall and the June 18 National Bank decision approaches shows a quiet shift toward assets that sit outside policy control. When official rates offer little or nothing, tangible gold becomes the alternative people actually reach for. Your savings account and the gold price are now linked through the same pressures. #SwissGold #GoldDemand #NegativeRates #SNB #June18 #StrongFranc #SafeHaven
Mark27,978 次观看 • 2 天前
RAY DALIO: THE ERA OF US HEGEMONY IS OVER Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio just delivered a direct and sobering assessment of America's global position. Drawing from recent conversations with leaders across Asia and China, he explained why the United States can no longer project power the way it once did. His words reveal a superpower hitting hard limits that the rest of the world has already noticed. What he described about shifting alliances and rising risks around Taiwan changes how every investor and leader must think about the future. THE OVEREXTENSION REALITY ➡️ Ray Dalio stated that world leaders now see clearly the United States cannot fight a war against other major powers like China. ➡️ The American population refuses to accept the cost of living spikes and loss of life that prolonged conflicts would bring. ➡️ The country is already stretched far too thin trying to manage pressures in the Middle East at the same time. THE CONTAINMENT POLICY ENDS ➡️ For years the United States followed a strategy of containing China's rise through a network of alliances and military posture. ➡️ Dalio made it plain that this approach is now over because America's limitations have become impossible to hide. ➡️ The realization among global powers is already triggering major geopolitical adjustments. ➡️ Nations that once relied on US containment are rapidly recalibrating their strategies and expectations. THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ PARALLEL ➡️ Dalio has warned for some time that the Strait of Hormuz represents a critical vulnerability for the United States. ➡️ He draws a direct line to Britain's experience during the 1956 Suez Crisis when control of a vital chokepoint slipped away. ➡️ Failure to secure these strategic passages could spark a broader crisis of confidence in US financial markets. ➡️ The world is watching closely to see whether America can still protect the assets that underpin its global influence. THE BOTTOM LINE Ray Dalio's message leaves no room for wishful thinking. The era of uncontested American hegemony has reached its practical limit, and the world is already moving to a new and more dangerous balance of power. Those who pretend nothing has changed are ignoring the clearest signals yet. This is the sound of global dominance slipping away in real time. #RayDalio #USHegemony #ChinaContainment #TaiwanCrisis #StraitOfHormuz #GeopoliticalShift #BridgewaterAssociates
Mark55,713 次观看 • 9 天前
THE MAN WHO CALLED 1987, 1990, AND 2000: MARC FABER'S UNFILTERED WARNING ON RATES, BRICS, AND CASH Marc Faber stands as one of the most respected and feared voices in global finance. With more than fifty years of experience that includes calling the 1987 crash, the Japanese asset bubble, and the dotcom mania, his words carry weight that mainstream analysts simply cannot match. When he speaks about the true state of inflation, the safety of American gold, and the future of money itself, smart money listens closely. THE LEGENDARY TRACK RECORD ➡️ Marc Faber has more than five decades of stock market experience under his belt. ➡️ He not only witnessed but also predicted the October 1987 crash, the Japan bubble collapse in 1990, and the dotcom bubble burst in 2000. ➡️ As editor of the legendary Gloom Boom Doom Report, he continues to deliver unvarnished analysis to subscribers around the world. THE INFLATION REALITY CHECK ➡️ Official statistics claim inflation runs at just 2 to 3 percent in the United States and Europe. ➡️ Faber cites rigorous calculations from Shadowstats showing actual consumer cost increases closer to 10.5 percent per year. ➡️ These hidden costs include insurance, housing, education, and automobiles that far outpace the manipulated official numbers. THE FORT KNOX GOLD DOUBT ➡️ Faber harbors serious doubts that America's gold reserves remain safely stored in Fort Knox. ➡️ He wonders aloud whether past officials or presidents may have removed the gold without anyone noticing. ➡️ "Tell me, what is the word of an American worth?" he asks pointedly, referencing broken promises from Vietnam to questionable election results involving mail-in ballots. THE RISING YIELDS AND LONG-TERM CYCLE ➡️ After four decades of falling interest rates from 1981 to 2020, a new rising trend has begun. ➡️ Faber expects this upcycle to last until around 2040 or 2045 and possibly exceed the 15 percent peaks seen in 1981. ➡️ Higher borrowing costs will feed directly into business expenses and ultimately higher prices for consumers. THE BRICS AND THE UNIT ➡️ BRICS nations have launched a pilot gold-backed trading currency called The Unit to reduce reliance on the dollar. ➡️ This move follows repeated US seizures of foreign currency reserves held in America. ➡️ Faber advises central banks to pull their physical gold out of US custody because its very existence there remains unverified. THE AI WINNERS AND LOSERS ➡️ Massive technological shifts driven by artificial intelligence will cause most companies to go bankrupt. ➡️ A select few survivors will make enormous amounts of money in the process. ➡️ Asia enjoys a structural advantage because it lacks the green activists and heavy socialist interventions that stifle growth in Europe. THE CASH RECOMMENDATION ➡️ Faber strongly advises to diversify and avoid taking huge risks in the current climate. ➡️ Almost everyone is rushing into stocks, real estate, and collectibles, leaving cash with low returns and unloved by the crowd. ➡️ This very fact makes cash potentially interesting right now, precisely because nobody wants it. ➡️ When the risk-off moment arrives, cash becomes king, exactly as Warren Buffett has long described. THE BOTTOM LINE Marc Faber entered this interview with the same directness that has defined his five-decade career. He sees a world of eroding trust, hidden inflation, and dangerous policy interventions, yet he offers a clear path forward through diversification and a fresh look at cash that nobody else seems to want right now. Cash is king when everyone else is chasing the next bubble. HT: YouTube Kettner-Edelmetalle (Gold & Silber) #MarcFaber #GloomBoomDoom #RealInflation #FortKnoxGold #BRICS #InterestRateCycle #CashIsKing
Mark28,372 次观看 • 4 天前
⚠️ BUCKLE UP: 2026 GEOPOLITICAL PREDICTIONS FROM A PROFESSOR WHO GOT TRUMP, IRAN, & UKRAINE RIGHT. Professor Jang uses game theory & history to forecast global shifts. His track record is uncanny. Here’s his alarming analysis for 2026. THE GRAND GAME: US vs. CHINA ➡️ The core of 2026 is the U.S.-China relationship. Everything else is secondary. ✅ Trump’s planned state visit to China in April is the pivotal event. The goal? A "grand bargain" to secure the US dollar's dominance. ❌ The U.S. strategy is contradictory: it seeks to coerce China while needing its cooperation. This cannot hold. THE REAL WAR IS FINANCIAL 🔗 The 1971 move off the gold standard created a system where China’s addiction to dollars stabilized the U.S. economy. ⚠️ Now, China is destabilizing that system by internationalizing the Yuan and creating gold-backed corridors. ⚔️ U.S. actions in Venezuela & the Middle East are not just about oil—they are about forcing China to buy resources using dollars, strangling its economy into submission. MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION ➡️ Professor Jang uses a powerful metaphor: two nations on a ladder over an abyss. ✅ If they climb together, they are stable. ❌ If one tries to climb too far ahead, both fall. The U.S. insistence on hegemony is that destabilizing force. 💥 China’s weapons are financial: it can restrict silver exports or dump U.S. treasuries, causing market havoc. THE AMERICAN PONZI SCHEME ✅ The U.S. economy is built on bubbles: AI speculation, over-leveraged paper silver (300:1), and cryptocurrency. ⚠️ These bubbles are sustained only by oligarchic control and endless money printing. A self-correction could mean collapse—and potential civil war. “The American financial industry is one great Ponzi scheme.” EUROPE: SLEEPWALKING INTO DISASTER ➡️ The Ukraine war is settled in all but name. The front is stabilized. ❌ Yet, Europe’s elite, living in a bubble, will continue a suicidal policy. They cannot admit they were wrong. 🎯 The endgame is Odessa. NATO will commit to defending it, Russia will besiege it, and European conscription will spark internal revolt. “Europe is a lumbering bureaucracy that cannot imagine its own demise.” THE DECLINE OF EMPIRE: MICRO-MILITARISM ✅ The kidnapping of Maduro was a televised spectacle, not strategy. ⚠️ It humiliated a nation and turned the Global South against the U.S. It’s a sign of an empire in decline—sacrificing long-term strategy for short-term optics. “Trump thinks like a mafia boss, not a president. He lives in Trump World, where TV ratings equal victory.” APRIL 2026: THE SHOWDOWN All roads lead to Trump’s visit to China. The goal is to negotiate from a position of strength, controlling the Western Hemisphere to dictate terms. The wildcard is China’s response. Will it cut a deal or choose a different path? The professor’s bet: A grand bargain is reached, but it merely delays the inevitable collapse of the current order. THE BOTTOM LINE The world is being pushed toward conflict by a declining power that confuses television ratings for statecraft, while its rivals hold the financial weapons to ensure mutual destruction. I highly recommend watching the entire interview ! - Glenn Diesen #Geopolitics #2026Predictions #USChina #USDollar #EconomicCollapse #WarInEurope #GlobalRisk #GameTheory
Mark884,038 次观看 • 5 个月前
7% CRASH FROM "95% DONE" DEAL THAT NEVER HAPPENED - MARKET MANIPULATION AT PEAK: WHY OIL SHOULD BE $130 Energy markets expert Ross Hendrix of Porter and Co. just laid bare the most blatant case of oil market manipulation in years. Over one weekend the administration blasted out headlines claiming a deal was "95% done" with Iran set to open the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices immediately plunged 7% on Monday. Yet on that same Monday ships were being attacked in the Persian Gulf and Israel launched fresh strikes on Lebanon with zero increase in actual tanker traffic through the strait. THE WEEKEND HEADLINE SCAM ➡️ Administration officials told markets the deal was 95% complete and Iran would surrender its uranium and reopen the strait. ➡️ Oil crashed 7% the next trading day on nothing but those tweets and press releases. ➡️ The very same day ships were being blown up in the Persian Gulf and new attacks hit Lebanon. ➡️ There was still no measurable pickup in traffic through the strait that supposedly just reopened. THE REALITY THEY ARE HIDING ➡️ A minimum of 10 million barrels per day remain blocked from the Strait of Hormuz entering month four. ➡️ Global inventories have already lost over one billion barrels with no end in sight. ➡️ The market is trading off social media posts instead of physical barrels and actual tanker data. THE DEMAND DESTRUCTION THEY ARE BLOCKING ➡️ To balance this market oil needs to rise high enough to destroy 10 million barrels of daily demand. ➡️ Every jawboning headline keeps prices artificially low and prevents that destruction from happening. ➡️ The slack in the system is being chewed through day by day with nothing to replace it. THE VIOLENT RECKONING AHEAD ➡️ Ross Hendrix warns we should already be at $120 to $130 if the market were pricing reality. ➡️ Instead we are being set up for one of the most horrific price spikes in commodity history. ➡️ The longer they suppress the truth the more violent the snap higher will be when the final buffer disappears. THE BOTTOM LINE They are not managing a crisis. They are managing the narrative while the physical oil market burns. When the last barrel of slack is gone the price will not politely rise. It will explode. HT: YouTube Michael Farris (Coffee and a Mike) Ross Hendricks #OilManipulation #HormuzBlockade #FakePeaceDeals #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #ViolentReckoning #MarketTruth
Mark86,023 次观看 • 18 天前
GOLD & SILVER CRASHING NOW: SWISS TOP MANAGER REVEALS THE FINAL MANIPULATION BEFORE THE EXPLOSION Dieter Lüscher from Premium Strategy Partners AG is one of Switzerland’s most decorated wealth managers. Multiple times named best in the conservative risk class after managing ultra-high-net-worth clients at a major Swiss bank. In his latest interview he cuts through the noise and delivers a crystal-clear warning on gold and silver right now. What he says will stop you mid-scroll. THE QUARTER-END TRAP EXPOSED ➡️ Commercial banks and shorts still hold massive positions and options expiring in just nine days. ➡️ Their only goal is to push gold and silver as low as possible so those options expire worthless and they pocket maximum profit. ➡️ This exact game has run for fifteen years but Dieter says we are now in the endgame. THE LOW IS COMING FAST ➡️ The bottom in precious metals arrives in the next few days, maybe already today. ➡️ Even with war escalating daily the price action is purely technical, driven by futures and option expiry. ➡️ Once that window closes the structural bid returns with force. THE ASIA POWER SHIFT ACCELERATES ➡️ India just announced that from April 1 gold and silver ETFs will price at the local Indian spot, not LBMA. ➡️ China is openly pushing yuan-denominated gold pricing and demanding it gains importance. ➡️ COMEX inventories are plunging while Shanghai Gold Exchange official stocks sit at just 600 tonnes. THE PHYSICAL DEMAND REALITY ➡️ Silver supply is turning chaotic with mines shipping directly to producers, bypassing exchanges entirely. ➡️ Physical metal carries zero counterparty risk, exactly what investors and nations now demand. ➡️ Wars and exploding debt force massive new money printing that only gold and silver can truly absorb. THE BOTTOM LINE Dieter’s message is simple and urgent: this engineered dip is the final gift before the real bull market resumes and pricing power permanently shifts east. Buy the physical metal now while the manipulators still control the paper price. HT: YouTube Rohstoff Investor #GoldSilver #GoldLow #SilverShortage #COMEXDrain #IndiaGold #YuanPricing #PreciousMetalsBull
Mark376,465 次观看 • 2 个月前
BIGGEST ENERGY CRISIS IN HISTORY: $150 OIL IN WEEKS AS INVENTORIES PLUNGE TO RECORD LOWS Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, delivered a sobering message in his Bloomberg TV interview. We are living through the biggest energy crisis anyone alive has ever seen — yet most of the world still has no idea what is coming. With Middle East production slashed by 14 million barrels per day, the safety buffer is gone and inventories are about to hit all-time lows. THE UNPRECEDENTED SHORTAGE ➡️ Middle Eastern production is down a staggering 14 million barrels per day. ➡️ Already lost 650 million barrels of production — and that climbs to 1.5 billion even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow. ➡️ The last ships that left before closure have now unloaded, leaving zero safety buffer. THE INVENTORY COLLAPSE ➡️ US diesel stocks fell 4% in a single week while gasoline dropped 3% outside driving season. ➡️ Global oil inventories are heading straight to all-time record lows by the end of May. ➡️ Complacency rules because the human mind simply cannot grasp something this enormous. THE INEVITABLE PRICE SPIKE ➡️ Demand must be rationed more severely than during COVID — and price is the only way to do it. ➡️ Expect oil well in excess of $150 per barrel in the coming days or weeks. ➡️ Physical markets are already trading at these brutal levels. THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK ➡️ Nuttall went 100% oil weighted back in January — his fund is already up 44%. ➡️ Once the Strait reopens he still sees an $80 floor with demand boosted 40% from restocking depleted inventories and SPRs. THE BOTTOM LINE Eric Nuttall has spent 25 years in this market and calls this the biggest disruption of his lifetime. The world is sleepwalking into a supply shock that will force prices higher faster than anyone expects. This is the calm before the storm hits hard. #EnergyCrisis #150Oil #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #RecordLowInventories #OilPrices #EnergyShock
Mark192,717 次观看 • 1 个月前
THIS IS THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT Arthur Kachikan, doctor of political science from Armenia, just delivered the clearest verdict yet on the nine-day Iran war. This is not another regional conflict. It is the final earthquake that buries the entire system humanity built after 1945. THE CORE THESIS: EVERY PILLAR IS COLLAPSING ➡️ International law no longer exists. ➡️ The UN system, global legitimacy, and public opinion have all vanished. ➡️ Every arms-control treaty from the INF to the ABM to Open Skies is gone. ➡️ Non-proliferation is finished; nuclear weapons will now spread. THE LIBERAL DREAM IS DEAD ➡️ Four hundred years of thinkers from Hobbes to Locke to Mill promised democracies would never attack each other. ➡️ That promise died the moment the leading democracy launched this war. ➡️ Britain, France, Germany, and NATO all lined up behind it. ➡️ Fukuyama’s “end of history” is now officially buried next to the League of Nations and the Concert of Europe. THE CEMETERY OF WORLD ORDERS ➡️ This conflict walks us through a graveyard: Wilson’s League, Gorbachev’s New Thinking, Bush’s New World Order, even MAGA. ➡️ All the ideals of equilibrium, common security, and compromise are now tombstones. ➡️ The very liberals who preached these rules tore them down themselves. THE BOTTOM LINE Arthur Kachikan says we are standing on the fresh grave of every idea humanity ever had to stop war, and the people who claimed to defend democracy are the ones holding the shovel. This war is the end of the world as we know it. HT: YouTube Neutrality Studies Pascal Lottaz #IranWar #EndOfLiberalOrder #Post1945Collapse #InternationalLawDead #ArmsControlOver #CemeteryOfWorldOrders #NuclearSpreadWarning
Mark381,562 次观看 • 3 个月前
DOUG CASEY'S NEXT BIG WIN: OIL STOCKS POISED FOR A RUNAWAY BULL MARKET Legendary investor Doug Casey has identified a sector that the market has almost completely forgotten. Oil stocks trade at valuations that would have seemed impossible just a few years ago, yet they come with solid cash flows and attractive yields. With political tensions in the Middle East refusing to cool, this forgotten corner of the market may be about to wake up in dramatic fashion. THE HISTORICAL COLLAPSE IN ATTENTION ➡️ In 1980, during the last major oil market peak, oil and natural gas stocks made up 30 percent of the S&P 500. ➡️ Today that weighting has fallen all the way to just 4 percent. ➡️ Investors have turned their backs on the entire sector. THE ATTRACTIVE FUNDAMENTALS TODAY ➡️ Oil has reached what Casey describes as a new equilibrium level around 95 dollars per barrel. ➡️ Production costs for the industry sit near 60 dollars. ➡️ This spread allows producers to generate strong returns at current prices. THE GEOPOLITICAL TAILWIND ➡️ The conflict between Iran and Israel shows no signs of ending. ➡️ Casey puts it bluntly: "This thing with Iran and Israel ain't going to go away." ➡️ He believes oil prices are going to go higher for political reasons. THE DIVIDEND AND VALUATION EDGE ➡️ Most oil stocks offer fat dividend yields that the market is completely ignoring. ➡️ The sector trades at deeply depressed valuations relative to almost everything else. ➡️ Doug Casey sees this as the setup for a runaway bull market in oil stocks. THE BOTTOM LINE Doug Casey sees the oil stocks sector as one of the most compelling opportunities available to investors right now. The extreme underrepresentation in major indices, reliable profitability at current prices, and building pressure from geopolitics create conditions for significant appreciation that the broader market has yet to price in. Smart money positions itself before the rest of the world wakes up to what is hiding in plain sight. #OilStocks #DougCasey #EnergyInvesting #OilPrices #Geopolitics #DividendStocks #ContrarianInvesting
Mark33,949 次观看 • 7 天前
WALL STREET'S FATAL MISCALCULATION: WHY OIL PRICES REFUSE TO PRICE IN REALITY Legendary commodities expert Jeff Currie just laid out the uncomfortable truth. Every analyst he speaks with calls the current disruptions unprecedented across supply chains. Yet oil and other commodity prices remain strangely calm, as if none of it matters. The market's dangerous disconnect comes down to flawed assumptions and short-term thinking that could soon prove catastrophic. THE HISTORICAL BLIND SPOT ➡️ Most traders active today have never witnessed a disruption of this magnitude. ➡️ Today’s market participants and traders have never experienced anything like this before and are therefore in the dark. ➡️ You must go back to the 1970s and 80s to grasp the true potential impact. THE DEFICIT NOT SHORTAGE ILLUSION ➡️ Right now we face a deficit where demand exceeds supply and inventories are being drawn down fast. ➡️ Nothing has actually run out yet, so everything still feels fine on the surface. ➡️ Currie compares it perfectly to the Jaws scene where the mayor declares the beaches open while the shark still lurks in the water. THE VOLUMETRIC REALITY CHECK ➡️ Macro analysts focus solely on oil's tiny share of global GDP and its notional dollar value. ➡️ They claim price spikes simply do not matter from that narrow perspective. ➡️ But commodities experts measure in actual volumes: millions of barrels per day or metric tons. THE POWERFUL ANALOGY ➡️ Spend $100 million on a luxury diamond necklace for one rich buyer and the system barely notices. ➡️ Hand that same $100 million to low-income families buying basic goods like corn and the volumetric stress on supply chains becomes enormous. ➡️ Who spends the money and how determines the real economic impact, not the headline price tag. THE COMMODITY VERSUS MACRO DIVIDE ➡️ Commodity specialists warned early in COVID that a big problem was building. ➡️ Macro and finance voices dismissed it completely at the time. ➡️ Then inflation exploded over 10 percent year-over-year, proving the volumetric warnings right once again. THE BOTTOM LINE Markets are discounting this crisis because of recency bias, surface-level notional metrics, and a total failure to respect volumetric shocks that actually move the real economy. The calm you see today is simply the quiet before inventories run dry and reality hits hard. HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal #OilShock #MarketBlindSpot #JeffCurrie #CommodityCrisis #VolumetricImpact #EnergyDeficit #SupplyChainReality
Mark144,593 次观看 • 1 个月前
ART BERMAN'S BASE CASE: OIL SPIKES TO $160 THEN STABILIZES PERMANENTLY AT $110 Petroleum geologist Art Berman built a probability model for the current oil crisis that rejects political theater and quick deals. He treats every forecast as a distribution of outcomes because the situation has no historical precedent. His base case carries the highest weight and it points to a permanent break from the energy world of 2025. ART BERMAN'S PROBABILITY MODEL ➡️ He maps best case, base case, and worst case scenarios instead of offering single predictions because no one can know the exact path through unprecedented disruption. ➡️ The best case assumes a perfect deal by early June yet still delivers only 50 percent of normal flows by the end of 2026 due to demining, insurance delays, and weeks of tanker queuing. ➡️ Even that optimistic path leaves three quarters of 2026 operating under severely reduced energy supplies with catastrophic economic consequences. THE BASE CASE THAT DRIVES EVERYTHING ➡️ Iran has no incentive to ever fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and will likely maintain control indefinitely. ➡️ Restarting shut-in production faces massive lags from damaged reservoirs, lost investment confidence, and infrastructure that may never fully recover. ➡️ The global system faces irreversible change with no realistic path back to 2025 economic conditions. THE OIL PRICE PROJECTION ➡️ In the realistic base case oil prices will almost certainly spike into the 150 to 160 dollar per barrel range by summer. ➡️ Extreme prices trigger demand destruction that pulls Brent back down to around 100 to 105 dollars. ➡️ Prices then slowly rise and stabilize in the 105 to 115 dollar per barrel range through 2027 and likely beyond. WHY THIS SHOCK IS 60 TO 99 TIMES FASTER ➡️ The rate of supply loss is 60 to 99 times faster than the greatest previous oil shocks in recorded history. ➡️ No rapid solutions like vaccines or policy reversals exist this time to cushion the blow. ➡️ Inventories have masked the crisis so far but those savings are running out fast and the full impact is coming. THE BOTTOM LINE Art Berman's model shows the world just suffered its greatest energy blunder in modern history by jeopardizing the entire global economy with one move. Oil will spike hard then settle into a permanently higher range because the old supply system is broken beyond repair. #OilPrices #ArtBerman #EnergyCrisis #OilShock #HormuzBlockade #DemandDestruction #NewOilNormal HT: YouTube Palisades Gold Radio Art Berman
Mark48,650 次观看 • 12 天前
L. JOHNSON: PUTIN GREENLIGHTS KIEV CAPTURE TO END UKRAINE CONFLICT Larry Johnson, the former CIA officer with direct lines into Russian strategic thinking, has just issued the clearest prediction yet on how this war actually ends. After years of careful attrition Russia has crossed its final threshold and is now preparing a ground assault to seize and hold Kiev. The blunt evacuation order to every Western diplomat and military adviser in the capital is not theater. It is the starting gun. THE WATERSHED DECISION ➡️ Russia has officially decided to change its entire approach to the conflict. ➡️ The brutal terrorist attack that slaughtered teenagers in Lugansk was the final straw that ended all remaining restraint. ➡️ Moscow is no longer willing to absorb endless Western-backed strikes on its people while pretending the old rules still apply. THE EVACUATION SIGNAL ➡️ Foreign diplomats and intelligence personnel in Kiev have been told in plain language to leave now. ➡️ Russia does not make idle threats and this one carries the full authority of the Kremlin. ➡️ The message is unmistakable: clear the city before the strikes intensify ahead of the ground operation. THE SUMMER TIMELINE ➡️ Larry Johnson states Russian forces will capture and control Kiev by the end of the summer. ➡️ This is not wishful thinking. It is an assessment based on Russia’s current overwhelming supply of missiles, artillery, and combat-ready troops. ➡️ The city is being systematically prepared for takeover while Ukrainian defenses continue to erode. THE TOTAL VICTORY PLAN ➡️ Kiev falls first but Odessa and Transnistria are also marked for liberation before the campaign concludes. ➡️ Ukrainian military forces will be defeated outright on the battlefield. ➡️ The special military operation phase is over. Full-scale victory operations have begun. THE NO MORE MR. NICE GUY REALITY ➡️ Vladimir Putin personally instructed his foreign minister to deliver this uncompromising message to Washington. ➡️ Russia now possesses both the capability and the political will to finish the job inside Ukraine. ➡️ The previous caution was deliberate. That chapter has closed. THE BOTTOM LINE Russia absorbed every provocation the West could throw at it and has now assembled the forces and the resolve to end the war on its own terms by capturing Kiev and breaking the remaining Ukrainian army in the coming months. The prediction is precise and the window is closing fast. #KievCapture #RussiaVictory #UkraineEndgame #LarryJohnson #SummerOffensive #PutinUltimatum #WarOverSoon
Mark63,884 次观看 • 17 天前
GEN KEANE FUMES ON FOX: IRAN TIME ADVANTAGE CRUSHES AMERICAN HOPES IN LEAKED DEAL A shocking leak of the Iran memorandum of understanding has laid bare the true state of American negotiations. What was sold as progress is a calculated Iranian stall that highlights every flaw in the US approach. General Jack Keane erupted with visible frustration on Fox News as he dismantled the illusion of American control. ➡️ The general exposed how Iran is using the talks to buy time ahead of US elections. ➡️ This delay tactic works because America has shown it lacks the stomach for prolonged confrontation. THE USELESS STRIKES REALITY ➡️ US forces pounded missile launchers and mining boats in southern Iran. ➡️ Keane pointed out that Iran still mined the Strait and continues firing into Israel anyway. ➡️ Hundreds of rockets and drones later the so-called victories look like expensive theater. THE STRAIT CONTROL FIASCO ➡️ Keane warned Iran wants authority over the straits and even fees despite international law. ➡️ America cannot accept this but the leaked MOU suggests negotiators may be softening. ➡️ The general made it clear any such language would be a total surrender of principle. THE LEVERAGE BLUNDER ➡️ Keane stressed the 100 billion frozen assets must stay frozen or the regime gets rescued. ➡️ Releasing money early like past US administrations would be catastrophic again. ➡️ Iran knows American politics will pressure for a deal before sanctions bite hard. THE KEANE FURY AT US VULNERABILITY ➡️ The retired general fumed about Saudi Arabia blocking US airspace earlier and now hedging on reattacks. ➡️ This leaves America relying only on carrier aircraft and unreliable partners. ➡️ Keane slammed the lack of real regional commitment to the American position. THE BOTTOM LINE The United States launched strikes and issued ultimatums believing it held total dominance over a broken Iran. The leaked MOU and Keane's explosive analysis on Fox prove the opposite: America is being played for time, its military gains are hollow, and its political calendar has become Iran's greatest ally. Every day of delay makes the US look weaker and more desperate on the world stage. This is the unmistakable sound of American power eroding under its own strategic miscalculations. #IranMouLeak #USStrategicFailure #KeaneErupts #IranDelayWin #AmericaPlayed #HormuzHumiliation #TrumpWeakness
Mark65,709 次观看 • 19 天前
PEACE DEAL YESTERDAY? OIL STILL HEADED TO $150 Traders are convinced any peace deal in the Strait of Hormuz will crash oil prices overnight. Morgan Downey, the man who literally wrote the book on oil markets just destroyed that assumption. Even if a deal was signed yesterday the physical realities of global energy flows guarantee prices stay wrong and head much higher. **THE FLYWHEEL RESTART TRAP** ➡️ Tankers need one to two full months to resume normal transit and restart the global supply chain from the Middle East. ➡️ Shut-in wells across Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq and others require slow complex engineering restarts that have never been attempted at this scale before. ➡️ Damaged LNG facilities in Qatar alone could take four to five years to return to full capacity because critical turbines are backlogged worldwide. **THE TEMPORARY BUFFERS HAVE EXPIRED** ➡️ Strategic petroleum reserve releases and Iranian floating storage have already been largely drawn down to mask the shortage. ➡️ Technology-driven inventory efficiencies over the past five years created a hidden one-time cushion of roughly one billion barrels but that advantage is now spent. ➡️ The world has consumed its safety margins and now sits on a fuse measured in weeks not months. **THE PERSISTENT RISK PREMIUM** ➡️ Even with peace declared today Iran could restart disruptions within six months forcing traders to keep a permanent risk premium in prices. ➡️ Full confidence in tanker traffic and production infrastructure takes far longer to rebuild than any headline can deliver. ➡️ Oil is a physical flow commodity not an electronic market that resets with the stroke of a pen or a government press release. **THE DEMAND DESTRUCTION MANDATE** ➡️ Roughly ten million barrels per day of global demand must be destroyed to rebalance the market after losing that much daily production. ➡️ History shows oil demand only falls after violent price spikes and it always damages the broader economy in the process. ➡️ Current levels near one hundred dollars are simply not high enough to force the necessary cuts in jet fuel gasoline and diesel fast enough. **THE BOTTOM LINE** A peace deal implemented yesterday fixes the politics but completely ignores the physics of oil markets. Prices remain incorrect at current levels and the path to one hundred fifty dollar oil is still wide open regardless of any headline. This is the sound of markets finally waking up to the real cost of the crisis. HT: YouTube Macro Voices Erik Townsend 🛢️ #OilRestart #HormuzCrisis #PeaceDealMyth #OilPrices #EnergyShock #DemandDestruction #MorganDowney
Mark65,085 次观看 • 21 天前
🚀 ERIC SPROTT: INSIGHTS FROM A LEGEND 🚀 “When gold broke through $2000 in 2024, they lost control of the #gold market. The same thing has now happened in #silver.” ❌ The banks that were perpetually short can no longer hold back the physical demand. THE ALLOCATION SHIFT IS COMING. ➡️ Imagine if major institutions adopted the new model portfolio: 60/20/20, with 20% in precious metals. ✅ “We wouldn't even recognize the price… It could be like $1,000 for silver.” The re-rating would be historic. THE HIDDEN GEMS: SILVER JUNIORS ➡️ “I own every silver junior there is. They are all overlooked.” ⚠️ Most investors are still valuing these companies as if silver is $25-$30. It's double that. ✅ The leverage is incredible: “At $150 silver, these stocks go up by 10 times.” 📈 A 30-million-ounce silver deposit at $200/oz is worth $6 BILLION. Many such companies trade for a tiny fraction of that today. The Bottom Line: The paper market facade is crumbling. The physical shortage is real and accelerating. While silver itself is set to soar, the greatest leverage lies in the overlooked junior miners. We are in the early stages of a historic move. HT: TF Metals Report Sprott Money #Silver #Gold #PreciousMetals #SilverStocks #JuniorMiners #BullMarket #Investing #Commodities #Sprott #Finance
Mark493,958 次观看 • 5 个月前