Michael McFaul

@McFaul • 887,532 subscribers

Professor of Political Science, Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute & Hoover Institution, all at Stanford University. U.S. Ambassador to Russia, 2012-2014.

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Michael McFaul

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Russia isn't the reason Trump wants Greenland.

1/5 Are we in a new Cold War with China? Yes — and no. And understanding the similarities and differences matters. Here’s why 👇 (From my conversation with Walter Isaacson on Amanpour and Company)

I’m cautiously optimistic that our democratic institutions are stronger than Trump. But as I write in Autocrats vs. Democrats, this is the greatest test of American democracy in my lifetime — maybe since the Civil War. Out now:

In the Cold War, we all knew whose side we were on. Today, it's different. The struggle between autocrats and democrats is now just as much within states, as it is between them. More from my interview with The Last Word

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To our friends around the world: Trump is not America, and America is not Trump.

We've become remarkably desensitized to Trump's rhetoric. Declaring the Iran ceasefire "over," threatening to end all trade with Spain, calling Japan an "Islamic Republic"—a few years ago, each would have been a major story. Now they barely register. Why?

Undermining trust in the justice and electoral systems, denigrating the media, targeting rivals. I’ve seen this playbook before in Putin’s Russia in the early 2000s. America’s democratic institutions may be stronger, but we should never take them—or our rights—for granted.

Opening the Strait of Hormuz wasn't one of Trump's original war aims because it was already open before the war.

Giving Ukraine a license to produce Patriots will be big if it happens. But Ukraine needs missile defense interceptors now, and can’t wait for the production of them in the future.

Trump's strategy is to flood the zone until everyone forgets. Remember what he said his war with Iran would accomplish—and compare that with what's actually happened so far. The costs have been enormous. The results have yet to materialize.

Communist China performed as well as it did over the last four decades not because it doubled down on state planning, but because it opened its economy and embraced market reforms.

I’m struck by how often Trump referred to Xi as his “friend” and a “great leader.” Xi Jinping, chairman of the Chinese Communist Party, is a dictator. He also offered no such reciprocal praise for Trump. That asymmetry makes Trump appear in a visibly weaker position.

Trump’s comments last night about “Obama’s Iran deal” were simply wrong. It wasn’t perfect, but it capped uranium enrichment at 3.67%. Since Trump scrapped it, Iran has enriched to 60%—much closer to weapons-grade. And that stockpile still hasn’t been eliminated.

Once in power, Putin cut taxes for wealthy elites, consolidated media &amp; sought to shape the electoral process. Sound familiar? Some parallels are hard to ignore. The difference? The US has strong checks, an active civil society &amp; deep democratic traditions. That gives me hope.

What lessons will our regional partners draw from Trump’s war against Iran? If they conclude that Washington cannot guarantee their security, they may increasingly hedge their bets and seek accommodation with Tehran. That would diminish American influence in the Middle East.

Right now, the conversation isn’t about nuclear programs, or free and fair elections in Iran. It's about reopening a body of water that was open before this war started. Chalk that up as a win for Tehran.

From threatening to invade Greenland to calling Canada "the 51st state" and slapping tariffs on everyone—this isn't "America First," it’s a massive self-inflicted wound. Now Trump wants to abandon NATO. That would be an all-time own goal.

We’ve spent billions on the world’s largest navy, yet cheap Iranian drones can shut the Strait of Hormuz, and we have no answer. Ukraine has vast experience countering such drones, but Trump has arrogantly dismissed Zelensky’s offer of help. We need to catch up. Fast.

The Russian army is exhausted too. Russia is taking far higher casualties than Ukraine, and after 3.5 years has barely moved the front line. The idea that Russia is “winning” is simply not supported by the evidence. As I told DW News

Trump started a war in Iran without knowing why. He then put in place a ceasefire because we’d “met and exceeded” our military objectives. If he resumes fighting, will Trump explain to the American people why?

Putin is losing this war. Tried to take all Ukraine—failed. Tried to overthrow Zelenskyy—failed. Tried to demilitarize Ukraine—failed. Tried to stop NATO expansion—failed. I honestly can't believe this war has not ended yet.

Russian attacks like the one on Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, a UNESCO world heritage site and one of Ukraine’s most significant cultural and religious sites, show just how desperate Putin's become. He’s losing on the battlefield, so he resorts to terrorism. Ukraine is winning.

So we’re telling Ukraine to accept limits on its sovereignty, cede territory &amp; weaken its military. Whose interests does that serve? Not Ukraine’s, America’s or those of our democratic allies. Undermining Ukraine &amp; dividing NATO will empower Putin &amp; embolden autocrats worldwide.

Once in power, Putin cut taxes for wealthy elites, consolidated media & sought to shape the electoral process. Sound familiar? Some parallels are hard to ignore. The difference? The US has strong checks, an active civil society & deep democratic traditions. That gives me hope.

So we’re telling Ukraine to accept limits on its sovereignty, cede territory & weaken its military. Whose interests does that serve? Not Ukraine’s, America’s or those of our democratic allies. Undermining Ukraine & dividing NATO will empower Putin & embolden autocrats worldwide.