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Michael Kovrig

@MichaelKovrig • 21,668 subscribers

Founder/CEO/writer/analyst/advocate/ex-diplomat | Senior Adviser, ICG | China/Indo-Pacific/geopolitics/geoeconomics | Don't start none, won't be none 己所不欲,勿施於人

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Canadian MP Michael Chong is in Taiwan this week despite objections from Beijing. “Canada is a sovereign and independent country,” he said, and does not take direction from a foreign government on where Canadian MPs can travel or where Navy warships transit. Good for him.

Canadian MP Michael Chong is in Taiwan this week despite objections from Beijing. “Canada is a sovereign and independent country,” he said, and does not take direction from a foreign government on where Canadian MPs can travel or where Navy warships transit. Good for him.

58,627 次观看 • 17 天前

This is the best speech by a world leader that I have read in a very long time. More later, but for now, just read what Mark Carney has to say. Rhetorically, at least, he has met the geopolitical moment.

This is the best speech by a world leader that I have read in a very long time. More later, but for now, just read what Mark Carney has to say. Rhetorically, at least, he has met the geopolitical moment.

457,451 次观看 • 4 个月前

The real danger in Canada-China trade isn’t scale. It’s over-dependence. China can buy Canadian goods, but it’s risky to let a sector or company become so dependent on the Chinese market that Beijing can use that dependence to apply political pressure. That isn’t a hypothetical. The Chinese Communist Party has a history of weaponising trade and economic ties to achieve its political objectives.

The real danger in Canada-China trade isn’t scale. It’s over-dependence. China can buy Canadian goods, but it’s risky to let a sector or company become so dependent on the Chinese market that Beijing can use that dependence to apply political pressure. That isn’t a hypothetical. The Chinese Communist Party has a history of weaponising trade and economic ties to achieve its political objectives.

113,326 次观看 • 4 个月前

Turning to China to hedge against Trump carries serious risks. The CCP playbook runs from inducements to dependency, to demands for deference, to coercion. Stay out of the doom-loop. That and more in my testimony to Canada’s House of Commons Committee on Trade, now online:

Turning to China to hedge against Trump carries serious risks. The CCP playbook runs from inducements to dependency, to demands for deference, to coercion. Stay out of the doom-loop. That and more in my testimony to Canada’s House of Commons Committee on Trade, now online:

45,606 次观看 • 2 个月前

Canada still tends to approach trade with China as if it were mainly about economics. In practice, it rarely is. Talk of a new “strategic partnership” risks obscuring a basic reality. China hasn’t changed how it uses trade, investment, and diplomacy as tools of state power.

Canada still tends to approach trade with China as if it were mainly about economics. In practice, it rarely is. Talk of a new “strategic partnership” risks obscuring a basic reality. China hasn’t changed how it uses trade, investment, and diplomacy as tools of state power.

57,988 次观看 • 4 个月前

🤔Is that a yes or a no? Or just a “did you really have to ask me that here in Beijing?”

🤔Is that a yes or a no? Or just a “did you really have to ask me that here in Beijing?”

47,616 次观看 • 4 个月前

The most important takeaway from the Canada-China trade deal on canola and EVs isn’t the short-term relief. It’s the precedent. Canada got limited concessions. Beijing kept the leverage. And what this demonstrates to the Chinese Communist Party is that pressure worked. That’s a lesson China is unlikely to forget, especially when it’s deciding where to apply pressure next. More in my interview with Vassy Kapelos on CTV Question Period. Full clip linked in the comments.

The most important takeaway from the Canada-China trade deal on canola and EVs isn’t the short-term relief. It’s the precedent. Canada got limited concessions. Beijing kept the leverage. And what this demonstrates to the Chinese Communist Party is that pressure worked. That’s a lesson China is unlikely to forget, especially when it’s deciding where to apply pressure next. More in my interview with Vassy Kapelos on CTV Question Period. Full clip linked in the comments.

39,034 次观看 • 4 个月前

There’s a difference between diversification and substitution. Canada needs alternatives to overdependence, but replacing U.S. dependence with China dependence would be worse, not better. Any move that weakens coordination with allies carries long-term costs, particularly in autos, manufacturing, and security cooperation. This isn’t about one trip. It’s about structural alignment.

There’s a difference between diversification and substitution. Canada needs alternatives to overdependence, but replacing U.S. dependence with China dependence would be worse, not better. Any move that weakens coordination with allies carries long-term costs, particularly in autos, manufacturing, and security cooperation. This isn’t about one trip. It’s about structural alignment.

24,289 次观看 • 3 个月前

Prime Minister @MarkJCarneyney’s trip to Beijing was widely touted as a chance to stabilize relations. In reality, it was a test of whether Canada can manage pressure without giving ground where it matters. How do you think the PM performed?

Prime Minister @MarkJCarneyney’s trip to Beijing was widely touted as a chance to stabilize relations. In reality, it was a test of whether Canada can manage pressure without giving ground where it matters. How do you think the PM performed?

17,705 次观看 • 4 个月前

Turning to China to hedge against Trump carries serious risks. Ephemeral stability purchased through accommodation invites more coercion. The CCP playbook runs from inducements to dependency, to demands for deference, to coercion. Stay out of the doom-loop. That and more in my testimony to Canada’s House of Commons Committee on Trade last week.

Turning to China to hedge against Trump carries serious risks. Ephemeral stability purchased through accommodation invites more coercion. The CCP playbook runs from inducements to dependency, to demands for deference, to coercion. Stay out of the doom-loop. That and more in my testimony to Canada’s House of Commons Committee on Trade last week.

11,991 次观看 • 3 个月前

China is drawing Canada closer. Which country will be next? When Alexander Sjöberg of Danish newspaper Berlingske put that question to me, I forecast South Korea, the United Kingdom, and Germany as Beijing’s next targets. No crystal ball required—their leaders are all visiting China this winter. As Sjöberg puts it, while the US president is tearing apart the West's geopolitical armour, the Chinese government sees its chance to put out feelers and promote itself as a more “predictable” partner. Trump has given the CCP golden opportunities to improve its position through negotiations. Article link in comments. Which countries do you think top Beijing's priority list this year for influencing and coercing?

China is drawing Canada closer. Which country will be next? When Alexander Sjöberg of Danish newspaper Berlingske put that question to me, I forecast South Korea, the United Kingdom, and Germany as Beijing’s next targets. No crystal ball required—their leaders are all visiting China this winter. As Sjöberg puts it, while the US president is tearing apart the West's geopolitical armour, the Chinese government sees its chance to put out feelers and promote itself as a more “predictable” partner. Trump has given the CCP golden opportunities to improve its position through negotiations. Article link in comments. Which countries do you think top Beijing's priority list this year for influencing and coercing?

12,804 次观看 • 4 个月前

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