Ariel Hernandez
@RealSimpleAriel • 69,810 subscribers
Day trader turned swing trader. Here to help others improve their trading! Join me for live streaming on Discord. https://t.co/RRhmvGkkh0
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11/2/2026: Earnings disaster! Who leads next? - $USO after closing down 7% all of the energy names got solidly beaten up, from refiners, to drillers, to shippers. $VLO $XOM $LNG $CVX $ECO - I found growth names having an inability to bounce interesting after Fridays move because I figured some relief in crude could have helped. - $MRVL is now buying $LITE and we saw Lumentum closed down 18%. Is this merger bullish as we are reading with these headlines. I'll let price be my guide. - $INTC down another 8.8% today after Fridays 30% disaster! - $AMD $MU $SNDK $DELL a complete lack of a bid. - Is the market waiting for midterm elections to get out of the way before trying to stage a better bounce back rally? That's the expectation at this point. Even if that happens charts are still completely broken. - Genomics another group which had tried to bounce back early last week completely give up on Friday and today. Now losing the 50sma for $ARKG $TWST $TXG $NTRA - Home Builders with some healthy continuation trying to reclaim the 200sma for $ITB $XHB - Solar caught a bid but still broken $TAN $FSLR $NXT - $JETS with a nice move and it was likely caused by the drop in crude. - $XLP $XLY nice action today. - Almost 50% of my universe back above the 50sma. Looking at the $RSP you begin to realize that this nasty action is caused by the cap weighted names all taking a beating. Money doesn't seem to be leaving the market. It just continues to leave the AI and tech trade. - Look outside of the broken charts if you are looking for a trend.
Ariel Hernandez19,949 views • 3 days ago
Awesome conversation with Oliver Kell today! One of my biggest takeaways from Oliver was his discipline in staying focused on what he believes are the leading, most liquid stocks in the market. Get familiar with their price action, be patient, and let them work. He doesn't pretend to be perfect, nor does he need to be. He has a proven process that works for him over time, not every time. And I think that's a lesson a lot of traders could benefit from. You don't need to trade everything. You just need to know what works for you and have the discipline to stick with it. Thanks again for taking the time brother. The floor is yours anytime!
Ariel Hernandez74,042 views • 23 days ago
Bottleneck bros when you tell them they should use a stop loss 🤣🤣
Ariel Hernandez29,135 views • 15 days ago
10/26/2026: Where did the volatility go!? - Although we finished .7% on the $SPY I thought today was a total sleeper of a day. - $QQQ up 1.1% but really not the action I would have expected. - $SMH nice bounce attempt day. Seeing $INTC finding a bid against the 200sma makes sense after a 30% down move in 3 weeks. - $WGMI absolutely miserable group with a poor rally attempt out of $NBIS $HUT $CIFR $IREN $CRWV - Software remains your growth leadership with $HACK $CIBR really being the standout group. $NTSK $TENB $RBRK $CRWD $FTNT $PANW - $MAGS also a rebound attempt and even a nice job seeing $TSLA reclaim the 200sma. But $GOOGL and $META very sloppy charts and someone appears to be a bit broken with Google. - $USO slight down day but the $XOP $OIH $XLE don't show much sign of trying to slow. - $EWZ don't think I've ever seen a country ETF down 20%. Turns out the markets don't like socialism... Surprise! - I would call today underwhelming action where conviction wasn't gained for either side. - Are charts still broken? Yes. - Can they rally back up for a few days? Yes. - Do you know with a high degree of certainty, based on prior traction, what the market is capable of doing tomorrow? No! - For me this just means to stay patient.
Ariel Hernandez20,248 views • 10 days ago
Look ahead to next week. Will equal weight lead? - $RSP back above the 50sma. - 41.5% of my universe back above the 50sma - $XLE $XLV $XLP money going into the defensive parts of the S&P 500 - $XLC horrible week and a nasty rollover below the 200sma. $META $GOOGL $VZ $T $NFLX just a giant avoid for now. - $XLI steady trend below the 200sma. $CAT was being called a part of the AI trade, bet they wish that label was never applied to them. $GEV also down 11.5% for the week. Former leader having lost the 200sma. - $XLK flat week roughly but still the worst performer over the last month. Such a large part of the S&P 500 peaking out at nearly 40%. I would not be surprised to see continued unwind from that group. - $XLF nice to see this group sticking around but more importantly the $KRE. Regional banks playing a roll in keeping the $IWM buoyant. - Speaking of the Russell $IWM. We saw short positioning decrease for the prior two weeks. Hence the reason it has been flat this past month which the $QQQ is down 6%. - As for the Nasdaq small and large specs bought the dip. Hard to see how we meaningfully go higher with crowded positioning. - Software, in particular cyber security $HACK $CIBR leads the way for growth. $NTSK $RBRK $TENB $DDOG $NET $PANW $CRWD - This is a market for the patient. Get the idea out of your head that we are going to see new highs out of semis, memory, photonics and neoclouds. That party is over. - The focus should be on where is money going and where is money leaving. - Can we get a bounce in some of those themes? Yes! Should you reasonably expect clean trends to be born out of broken charts? You already know that answer.
Ariel Hernandez18,620 views • 12 days ago
10/23/2026 Daily Recap: Bottleneck bros in shambles - $XLP up 3.3% $WMT $COST $KO $CL $PM - $XLK down 3.3% $NVDA $MSFT $AMD $MU $INTC - That describes the market well. AI trade is getting destroyed at the moment. - $KRE nice push back above the 200sma with help from interest rates all along the curve being hammered. - $IWM we knew was crowded short and has been the obvious out performer all October despite being flat. - $QQQ opposite end of the spectrum has been the most crowded in over 5 years finally seeing some of that positioning unwind. - NAAIM was interesting because it jumped 13pts which means either active money managers are rotating into the consumer staples or they are still loading up the AI trade on the way down which we know wont end well. - $GLD down almost 3% has been a steady fade for two months. - $BTC gapped down and hugging the 50sma. I personally wont give $IBIT much more breathing room. - $DRAM $WGMI $FOTO $SMH which is your AI trade all had a miserable day. But the weakening action in that group has been notable for a few weeks now. Easy to sidestep a day like today. - $ITB $XHB leading group today. Helped by interest rates. Not constructive (pun intended) just yet but we will see how things shape up in that group over the coming weeks.
Ariel Hernandez19,977 views • 14 days ago
10/18/2026 Week ahead preview: It's a bear. - $QQQ with a 5% down week as the AI trades comes under massive distribution. - $DRAM nearly a 6% down day on Friday $MU $SNDK $WDC $SKHY $STX. - $WGMI just when we think the Neoclouds can't get much worse they have a 10% loss on Friday lead by $NBIS $CRWV. - $FOTO Photonics once a leading group in the AI theme has been completely undone . $LITE $CIEN $GLW. - $IGV was trying to hold up this week but on Friday finally fell under market pressure. $TWLO $CRWD $NET $OKTA $SNOW. - Energy continue to dominate my scans. $XLE $CVX $XOM $VLO $DINO $MPC $PBF $APA $EOG - $XLV a defensive sector has a few good looking charts. $LLY $MRK $PFE $ABBV $TMO - $XLP consumer staples also acting well over the last month. $COST $WMT $PM $KO. Again, defensive group but we that is where money is going for now. - Positioning fell from record crowding on the Nasdaq and I suspect that more people closed longs between Wednesday- Friday. - Does that mean we are "in the clear?" Not in my opinion. Charts are in rough shape and nothing suggests we spring into a clear uptrend here. - Money is going to defensive sectors and leaving growth. I don't know when that changes but we must be patient. - The plan is not to try and make your year in this environment. The plan is to not give back the awesome progress we have already made. When trends improve we want to have all of out capital in tact. Both mental and financial capital.
Ariel Hernandez21,974 views • 19 days ago
$SMH just hit 10x ATR from the 50sma today! The last time SMH was this extended from the 50sma was... Never That's right. Since inception it has NEVER been this stretched from the 50sma. We are now part of history! Make sure you share and tag those who bitched and moaned about the low volume on the way up
Ariel Hernandez157,437 views • 6 months ago
If you’re an intraday trader trading mid- and large-cap stocks, you need to understand resting orders. A lot of traders see a massive seller sitting on the offer and immediately assume it’s bearish. It’s not always that simple. In this video, I break down how I look at large resting orders, what the hell might actually be going on, and how you can use that information to better capitalize on shorter-term moves.
Ariel Hernandez49,691 views • 2 months ago
10/20/2026: Russell leads today! Now for how long!? - $IWM finally had a strong push from the groups within the ETF leading to a strong all day rally. - $KRE finished up nearly 2% - $XBI up 3.5% today as well. Both of those groups make up the large part of the Russell and we know the IWM has crowded positioning. - $SPCX reported in the after hours session and now trading up 5%. - $SMCI releases preliminary earnings and revenue was higher than estimates which lead to a recovery in $NVDA $AMD $DELL $INTC after the close - $XLV is our leading group at the moment. $HTFL was the standout in the healthcare space. $LLY $PFE $MRNA $ABBV continue to act well. - Software still has some impressive names worth noting $TEAM $NOW both with new closing highs. - $SN $ANF $ELF $FIGS pockets of strength across different names in different sectors. - $USO took a spill on the highs and we continue to see some pressure in the refiners which have certainly earned a rest. $VLO $MPC $PSX $DINO - Seems as if we are all waiting on an oversold rally, lets see if the market has a few days of healthier action.
Ariel Hernandez15,320 views • 16 days ago
A look ahead to next week: Time for breadth to expand? - $FOTO $EUV leading themes last week. Photonics $LITE $COHR $GLW - $SMH continues to lead this market as well $ASML $MRVL $TSM $NVDA $AMD - $CIBR also at a new closing high $CRWD $RBRK $OKTA $PANW $NET. - $IGV starting to base nicely back above the 200sma $MSFT $PLTR $CRM. - Marine Shipper continue to push highs $INSW $STNG $ECO. Not the most liquid group but the trend remains in tract. - Refiners spring back into action. $VLO $MPC $PSX $DINO. - $IWM found support at the rising 200sma on Thursday and we have regional banks starting to report on Tuesday. If you are considering playing the small cap group please keep an eye on yields. They would perform much better if interest rates didn't continue higher. - We have seen an unbelievable amount of destruction under the surface, yet we continue to see new leading groups pop up quickly. Our focus must remain on the themes into new high ground. ie: Electronic & Computer Distribution is a group that comes to mind. $AVT $ARW - I'm starting to get more and more traction which keeps me optimistic, and unless something meaningfully changes we need to be bullish while the $QQQ is at a new all time closing high.
Ariel Hernandez25,236 views • 1 month ago
10/13/2026: S&P looks great. Who else is ready to lead? - $SPY less than a quarter % from an all time closing high. - $MAGS new closing highs today. - $SMH 6 red days in a row but found a bid against the 50sma. Nice bullish engulfing bar from $AMD. $NVDA also finding support at an important spot. - $EWY tumbles more than 4% today but able to find some buyers from the open. The memory group is not out of the weeds yet, but the bulls are fighting for dear life with that group. - Powering the datacenter names still holding up well. $BE $VST $CEG $GEV $TLN - $XLE your undisputed leading group $XOM $CVX $COP $MPC $VLO $PSX not much to complain about if you have been long. - Nice to see some retail names catch a bid and build out well. $ANF $ELF $CAKE a few that come to mind. - Cyber names seem to have a seller over the past few days in the tape. $CRWD $PANW $FTNT $OKTA not the most idea closes today. Lets see if the 20sma shows up as support tomorrow. - $GLD $SLV remain weak and a no touch. - $BTC $ETH continue to consolidate. - $XLF not the most ideal day for banks after earnings. Lets see where we go from here. $JPM $WFC $C $GS. - $XLV what looked like a nice base setting up saw some distribution today because of $JNJ. - One day at a time in the market. Don't let the daily grind tire you out. This is a tape where less is more.
Ariel Hernandez18,322 views • 23 days ago
8/17/2026 Daily Recap: A sleepy session Zzzz - The market really felt like mid summer trading today. - 9/11 S&P sectors closed in the red today with $XLK effectively flat and $XLE continuing to lead - Bright spots with $TER $SNDK $LITE $ASML and others. - But before I jump all over memory names remember where they have come from. I did book a piece of $STX today above $1000 and I wouldn't be surprised to see some backfilling - $XOP $OIH $PSX $VLO $MPC accelerating nicely over the last 5 days. - $MAGS continues to give us a slow bleed out. $META $MSFT $AMZN continue to come under pressure. - $HACK $CIBR still leading groups but after the "panic buying" we say on Thursday in the $IGV I think it's likely we can continue to backfill a little more. Into the 20sma feels like the appropriate spot to look at some names. - No real reason to jump for joy or panic, the market was a complete snooze today. But a quiet tape doesn’t mean opportunities aren’t developing. Keep those watchlists sharp and be ready for your next trade.
Ariel Hernandez51,240 views • 2 months ago
10/15/2026: Oversold rally coming? - 489 names in my universe up 4% or more versus 69 down 4% - Finally a bit of the oversold thrust most of us had been waiting for. We were also able to claw back to > 30% of my universe back above the 50sma. - $WGMI names up 8.64% from the open. - $DRAM 5.5% from the open - $IGV very notable strength in some software names. $NOW $TEAM $CRM and even a $PLTR bounced exactly where it needed to (20sma) - $XRT powerful day and one of the better acting groups at the moment. $ANF $ELF $GME $OLLI $VSXY $BBY $EBAY and others. - $IWM also got a nice lift today with $KRE and $XBI both finishing green on a pickup in volume. - $OIH $XOP $XLE close down which I found interesting considering the strength in $USO. - Still a tricky environment but today was at least a solid opportunity to play a bounce, but far from out of the weeds. - $DELL $HPE $CRWD $PANW prior names showing RS are just not acting as well as I would have loved to see. - One day at a time as names need to repair before thinking we are all in the clear! - Don't think just because you nailed a nice entry this morning that it is THE LOW. Lets let the market give us more evidence of strength before making any assumptions. - Stocks are guilty until proven innocent. Ideally we can build out constructively from here!
Ariel Hernandez16,439 views • 21 days ago
Next week look ahead: A tale of two markets - $QQQ new all time closing high - New lows outpacing new highs since August 31st - $SPY 1% from an all time high - $IWM down 8% from the peak - $MU with important earnings coming up this Wednesday. - I lean to the bullish side of the market because I have been finding traction on new positions. But this is a tape where you need to be willing to flip your bias if the evidence changes. - Leadership still persists in genomics. - Energy names still act well, only the end of the war really tops that group in my opinion. - $XLK $SMH $MAGS carry enough weight to lead markets higher so that is where my focus is at the moment.
Ariel Hernandez23,822 views • 1 month ago
10/6/2026 Daily Recap: Nuclear Resurgence! - $CEG surges 12% on $GOOGL Nuclear Power Deal. - $XLU leading group today $VST $TLN on the back of constellation energy. - Recently beaten up photonics had themselves a day, in particular $CIEN. $LITE leading out to new highs. - The story of the day was Genomics. $ARKG has been a leading group for several months just had a very nasty 8.84% down day. $TWST $TXG $TEM $CRSP all got a colonoscopy. - $XBI also down 3.39% $MRNA did not help the cause. - Cryptos continue to consolidate. $BTC ethereum:native - Cyber security stretches out and reverses off the highs. Nothing wrong with some digestion here. - Recent strong semiconductors take a breather as well. $TER $AMAT $KLAC $FORM $ASML $TSM. - $IGV new closing highs from April lows. - $IWM was not helped today by biotech or regional banks. - Still room for optimism, but be very careful with how you are buying stocks. No reason to chase anything!
Ariel Hernandez19,055 views • 1 month ago
9/19/2026: Thoughts and prep for the week ahead - $MAGS has built a 5 months base looks about ready to lead - Memory names work up this week so they are back in focus. $MU $SNDK $SKHY - Genomics continue to lead $ARKG $TXG $TWST $NTRA - Energy through oil and gas takes a small breather but the refiners are relentless. The only thing that breaks the theme is an exit from the war. $VLO $MPC $PSX $DINO - Crypto follows through on Friday. Makes it hard to be negative when that theme is acting well. $BTC $ETH $MSTR $BMNR $HOOD $COIN - $SMH closes above the 50sma. $AMD is my personal favorite but eyes on $INTC $SMTC $ASX $ARM $SIMO and others. - Countless groups have been destroyed and I'm not calling for renewed uptrends in certain themes like aerospace and defense, but I think that some mean reversion can likely come soon. - Markets are being supported by the $XLK, that's the AI trade, if that group along with hyper scalers are ready for another leg higher it's best to get in line. - My expectation was a quarter point hike and a rally. We have gotten just that. So unless something changes, and quickly, I need to remain optimistic.
Ariel Hernandez26,306 views • 1 month ago
8/27/2026 Daily Recap: Software Reigns Supreme - $IGV $CRM $CRWD $OKTA stole the show today but really all software was on a tear today! - King $NVDA cannot be forgotten up 8.5% today on an extraordinary report. - Odd action out of memory names following the gap up last night. $MU $SNDK - I would be lying if I said todays action was perfect because it wasn't. Every single S&P sector with the exception of $XLK closed down today. - Not much more to comment with Jackson hole on tap for tomorrow! - Trade small if you are still finding yourself struggling to get properly positioned!
Ariel Hernandez36,368 views • 2 months ago
9/30/2026: What is keeping this market alive? - $MU reported in after hours and trading flat so far - $CIBR names continue to lead here $CRWD $PANW $NET $RBRK $OKTA. - The 30 year yield is relentless which you might suspect can't keep going forever before something breaks. $TLT on the flip side cannot find a bid. - Semiconductors have been doing an incredible job being the duct tape this market needs with leadership from $AMD $MRVL $INTC $TSM $ASML and a few others. - $XLF $KRE financials continue to stay weak and now firmly under the 200sma. I still don't think this would be the spot to put on new short exposure in that group. - $XLK was the only S&P 500 group to finish in the green last month but make up 40% of the index so really masked the weakness under the surface. - $BTC $ETH doing a nice job sticking around well and could use more consolidation before another leg higher. - $XLE $OIH $USO some energy names are acting better than others but far too news driven for me to play that group. - $GLD $SLV continue what looks to be a stage 4 decline. - If you have been having a hard time gaining traction you are not alone. This market has been incredibly tricky. I suggest not trying to make back losses by sizing up your next trade!
Ariel Hernandez20,016 views • 1 month ago