Ariel Hernandez
@RealSimpleAriel • 66,700 subscribers
Day trader turned swing trader. Here to help others improve their trading! Join me for live streaming on Discord. https://t.co/RRhmvGkkh0
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9/19/2026: Thoughts and prep for the week ahead - $MAGS has built a 5 months base looks about ready to lead - Memory names work up this week so they are back in focus. $MU $SNDK $SKHY - Genomics continue to lead $ARKG $TXG $TWST $NTRA - Energy through oil and gas takes a small breather but the refiners are relentless. The only thing that breaks the theme is an exit from the war. $VLO $MPC $PSX $DINO - Crypto follows through on Friday. Makes it hard to be negative when that theme is acting well. $BTC $ETH $MSTR $BMNR $HOOD $COIN - $SMH closes above the 50sma. $AMD is my personal favorite but eyes on $INTC $SMTC $ASX $ARM $SIMO and others. - Countless groups have been destroyed and I'm not calling for renewed uptrends in certain themes like aerospace and defense, but I think that some mean reversion can likely come soon. - Markets are being supported by the $XLK, that's the AI trade, if that group along with hyper scalers are ready for another leg higher it's best to get in line. - My expectation was a quarter point hike and a rally. We have gotten just that. So unless something changes, and quickly, I need to remain optimistic.
Ariel Hernandez24,922 görüntüleme • 2 gün önce
9/16/2026 Recap: Interest rates raised. Now what? - We got the telegraphed .25 rate hike - Interesting to see $XLE $XOP $OIH all close in the red. Refiners do not seem to care - $XLF under some big pressure losing the 50sma - $SPY looks like broken structure for now. $QQQ surprising to see close in the green. - $GLD $SLV both lower on the dollar rising. - $CIBR nice action from cybersecurity names. $CRWD $PANW $OKTA $RBRK - $SPCX sticking to that $150 level. Do we see some follow through soon? - $MAGS still has a constructive base. Can that group finally get going. - $XBI former leading group coming under more pressure. - Doing less here with smaller size feels like the right idea. Even if we bounce we have overhead supply to deal with.
Ariel Hernandez20,764 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce
9/15/2026 Daily Recap: Lack of clarity act - $ETH $BTC does not pass the clarity act proposal. $CRCL closing down -12% - FOMC tomorrow into the most telegraphed hike on planet earth. I think it's less about the possible hike and more about his tone. If he comes out Hawkish I think there is a chance we can rally back into supply - $SMH continues to live below the 50sma. $AMD $SWKS and a handful of others deserve some credit. Meanwhile $AVGO $ASML $TSM acting very poor here. - Same story for memory names. $SKHY $MU $SNDK $WDC $EWY just do not act well. - Photonics in the same boat. $AAOI $GLW $LITE $COHR not pretty. - $RSP $QQQE living below the 50sma and the idea of broadening out has been tabled for the time being. - $OIH $XOP $XLE continues to be the leadership of this market. - $CAKE $EAT $TXRH $CAVA and just about every other food stock on planet earth got smoked. Does this speak to the weakness in the consumer? Food for thought.... - $MAGS nice base built. Is this the group which leads us higher from this market sideways consolidation? - No reason to force trades before FOMC. If you get a stock or two that you can work off of a tight level, fine. Otherwise, a patient observer will be better rewarded
Ariel Hernandez21,873 görüntüleme • 6 gün önce
If you’re an intraday trader trading mid- and large-cap stocks, you need to understand resting orders. A lot of traders see a massive seller sitting on the offer and immediately assume it’s bearish. It’s not always that simple. In this video, I break down how I look at large resting orders, what the hell might actually be going on, and how you can use that information to better capitalize on shorter-term moves.
Ariel Hernandez48,972 görüntüleme • 18 gün önce
9/12/2026: Some thoughts for next week. - With the $RSP down and nearly every group in the $SPY in an intermediate downtrend, $XLK has has every excuse to roll over. Except, it's done nothing but consolidate for the past 4 months. - $SMH trading very tight here leading up to the interest rate decision - $DELL $HPE $NTAP $HPQ leadership - $MAGS very constructive and could also spring back out to a leadership role. - $CIBR weakening or better said, trading poorly. - $USO trading on highs which has been the culprit for the inflation narrative. - $BWET tanker shipping rates has been going vertical. An interesting idea soon for some mean reversion - Traction remains tough to come by but in an ideal world that changes soon with technology leading. - Happy Saturday!
Ariel Hernandez23,658 görüntüleme • 9 gün önce
8/17/2026 Daily Recap: A sleepy session Zzzz - The market really felt like mid summer trading today. - 9/11 S&P sectors closed in the red today with $XLK effectively flat and $XLE continuing to lead - Bright spots with $TER $SNDK $LITE $ASML and others. - But before I jump all over memory names remember where they have come from. I did book a piece of $STX today above $1000 and I wouldn't be surprised to see some backfilling - $XOP $OIH $PSX $VLO $MPC accelerating nicely over the last 5 days. - $MAGS continues to give us a slow bleed out. $META $MSFT $AMZN continue to come under pressure. - $HACK $CIBR still leading groups but after the "panic buying" we say on Thursday in the $IGV I think it's likely we can continue to backfill a little more. Into the 20sma feels like the appropriate spot to look at some names. - No real reason to jump for joy or panic, the market was a complete snooze today. But a quiet tape doesn’t mean opportunities aren’t developing. Keep those watchlists sharp and be ready for your next trade.
Ariel Hernandez51,240 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
8/27/2026 Daily Recap: Software Reigns Supreme - $IGV $CRM $CRWD $OKTA stole the show today but really all software was on a tear today! - King $NVDA cannot be forgotten up 8.5% today on an extraordinary report. - Odd action out of memory names following the gap up last night. $MU $SNDK - I would be lying if I said todays action was perfect because it wasn't. Every single S&P sector with the exception of $XLK closed down today. - Not much more to comment with Jackson hole on tap for tomorrow! - Trade small if you are still finding yourself struggling to get properly positioned!
Ariel Hernandez36,368 görüntüleme • 25 gün önce
$SMH just hit 10x ATR from the 50sma today! The last time SMH was this extended from the 50sma was... Never That's right. Since inception it has NEVER been this stretched from the 50sma. We are now part of history! Make sure you share and tag those who bitched and moaned about the low volume on the way up
Ariel Hernandez157,437 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
9/8/2026 Daily Recap: Heavy Weights vs Equal weight. - $SMH nice day today on the back of a great push from $AMD $INTC $SMTC $ASML $TSM. - Photonics with a group wide move. $LITE your leader. - Memory with a weak close but still living above their respective 50sma $MU $SNDK $DRAM - $CRAK starting to get a bit extended here $VLO $MPC $PSX $DINO. Time for rest? - $RSP first close below the 50sma since April. Something or nothing? - #AI trade still feels like it can be the theme which leads sentiment but seeing equal weight sell off telling us about the real trend? I don't know the answer to that question just yet. - $SPCX clears the relevant $150 level. - bitcoin:native $ETH continues to digest the most recent run. - Market seems to be in wait and see mode for interest rate decision. - Uninspired action today outside of the AI trade. But some would argue that is the most important group and you would get no pushback from me on that front.
Ariel Hernandez18,773 görüntüleme • 13 gün önce
8/31/2026 Daily Recap: Window dressing - $DRAM nice example of the end of month window dressing. $SNDK 8% move in the final 30min of the day - bitcoin:native $ETH continue to consolidate their most recent gains and we got fantastic action out of $CRCL $COIN - $SMH $SOXX structurally looks terrible and is going to need a healthy push here soon. - FTC & 22 states to sue $AMZN over alleged secret AD price hikes. The stock continues to trade like crap. - $GOOGL coming into the 200sma, A good spot to see if buyers are interested! - $ITA $UFO continue to come under pressure. $HWM after a multiyear trend has come back into the 200sma. - $CRWD $NET $PANW $CIBR $OKTA Cyber security names are a tough trade at the moment with price action all over the place. Although trend remains up. - $VLO $MPC $PSX $DINO and Crude Oil continue to trend. - Commodities and Agriculture pushing higher. Hard to say what that does for the inflation narrative. $DBA $MOO. - Tough tape to have massive conviction one way or another, but continue to update your watchlist and focus on earnings winners.
Ariel Hernandez27,385 görüntüleme • 21 gün önce
8/25/2026: Punched in the Dicks... Sporting Goods - $CCJ $UEC $DNN $URA $URNM Nuclear energy powering higher. No pun intended - Gold miners very impressive but this is not the place to initiate a new position. $NEM $AU $GFI $HL $WPM $AEM - Cyber Security names could not bounce where I would have expected. $CRWD $RBRK $PANW $OKTA and come under more pressure. - $DELL hangs onto the 50sma. Unfortunately was not able to keep yesterdays position. - $NVDA big report on deck tomorrow after the close. Good report, bad reaction? or Good report and ignite the semis? - $ARKG $XBI continue to be far and away the dominant group. - Crude oil takes an end of day spill. - $QQQ reclaims the FTD low but $NVDA can send us in any direction. Better to form an opinion after that reaction. - The best focus is still outside of AI for the time being.
Ariel Hernandez20,611 görüntüleme • 27 gün önce
8/20/2026 Daily Recap: Materials set to lead? - $XLB has been building a 6 month base and we are already seeing signs of materials trying to fly up the right side. - $GLD $GDX $SLV $SILJ $NEM we have gold and silver continuing to push and the US dollar doesn't look ready to go higher anytime soon. - $XLE took a well earned breather today $XOM $VLO $MPC - $BTC $ETH explosive day 2. Both back above the 200sma so I am welcoming all Michael Saylor posts as I own $IBIT. - $MRVL $MU $PLTR a few growth names which are really standing out amongst the crowd. - Cyber security continues to come under pressure. $CRWD $PANW $NET very quickly into the 50sma. Now we wait to see if there is a positive reaction to that area. Otherwise we do nothing. - After $MRNA cured cancer we get a gap down and follow through in the biotech sector $XBI. Truth be told that group also needed a breather. - $QQQ resting against the follow through day low and tomorrow would be as great of a day as any for the markets to bounce from this spot. - Software still looks like a group worth watching going forward $NOW $TEAM $SHOP $MDB - As much as I dislike the positioning in copper it is impossible to ignore the multi month base that has been built in $FCX $SCCO $COPX
Ariel Hernandez23,522 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
7/28/2026 Daily Recap: Time for a snapback!? - Price and volume accelerated today on the $QQQ which was a welcomed sign. - Nice early snapback on the software names. $SNOW $DDOG $NTAP $RBRK $CRWD. - Volatility high on the memory names after the close with both $STX and $SKHY reporting. - $EWY very washed out here making me think there may be a countertrend rally for a few days after reversing that $SKHY earnings dump. - $SPCX finally closing over the 5sma is a welcomed sign. I was afraid Elon Musk was about to become a millionaire soon. - $XLP big gap but ugly close. I never like to see toilet paper leading this market. - $XRT new all time closing high. Hope your prepared to own $TJX and $ROST. Because I know I'm not lol. - $IGV group with cyber security names is where my focus is at the moment for software. - Maybe a bounce idea for a few days on the memory group. - Staying open minded while growth leadership emerges.
Ariel Hernandez36,815 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
8/12/2026 Daily Recap: Something for everyone - $MAGS continue to disappoint or is it rest? - $QQQ the open on CPI was the high print which was interesting considering how strong growth names were. - $NBIS up on earnings and the first time I buy an earnings gap in what feels like forever. Closing up 35%. Makes me feel bad for young Leopold. - $DRAM work up some today trying to get out of this tight range they had been in for days. 50sma coming up soon and we are going to need to get through that as well. - $FOTO ETF on the back of $LITE was fantastic. - Metals $GLD $SLV rest. - Crypto still dead for now. - Software takes a breather $SNOW $CRWD $RBRK $OKTA $FTNT - Financials quietly trending $XLF $KRE - $DELL $HPE finally start to speed up and both with new 52wk closing highs. - $CBRS a bit of an earnings disappointment so we will see what happens with semis on the back of that tomorrow.
Ariel Hernandez27,143 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
stockbee I was lucky enough to marry into that culture 😅
Ariel Hernandez48,108 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
8/3/2026 Daily Recap: Ready for both sides. - We have a possible FTD on tap this week with $QQQ - $SPY less than 1% away from an ATH. I would suspect we get there tomorrow. - Software continues to act best with cybersecurity leading the charge. $DDOG $CRWD $PANW. - But you also have some mega caps carrying the torch as well these last few days $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $META and $NVDA. - Semis can continue to rest here while other parts of this market have taken charge. - Industrials, Emerging markets, Genomics, Software, travel and leisure, restaurant and retail. It's a market of stocks and not just semiconductors and that is what is really helping over the past few weeks. - The market can easily rest tomorrow as we churn through some of this supply OR we can rally and get that FTD as soon as tomorrow. - No need for a crystal ball, just keep your RS list updated with some setups. and In case we reject, what names do you go after in that scenario. Let the traction in your portfolio be your guide.
Ariel Hernandez30,059 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
8/14/2026 Daily recap & Watchlist: Software takes over! - $IGV $CLOU $XSW $SKYY $HACK leading. - $WDAY buyout news sent software names flying. - $ESTC $FROG $MDB $PATH $RBRK $FROG $TEAM $SHOP $ABNB $NET $S $PANW - Memory names finally woke up. $STX the most constructive but $SNDK closing up 14% on the day sent the group flying. - $WGMI related names look god awful $HUT $IREN $CIFR. Even $CRWV with a big reversal off the highs. - Copper, positioning is very crowded so likely a pass for now, sells off most of the day. - $QQQ $SPY follow through so until something changes with failed breakouts it feels like full steam ahead. - Don't get ahead of yourself and start buying extended. Let the market keep pulling you in.
Ariel Hernandez23,073 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
8/18/2026 Daily Recap: AI trade on it's last leg? - $XLE continues to dominate the tap. $PSX $MPC $VLO $XOM - $DRAM under some major pressure as the group quickly loses the 50sma again. $MU $SNDK $ - $FOTO a failed move higher lead by $LITE $AAOI $AXTI - $IGV $HACK $CIBR held in well with but it was market action that didn't elicit much confidence. - $HPE $DELL are we possibly looking at failed breakouts? I was forced to reduce my position in both of them. - $SMH back under the 50sma and the most recent semi which saw a new ATH $AEHR back under the June high. - Hard to say if the market was just rinsing out some of the recent euphoric excess or if this was just an oversold rally that finally saw the bounce highs for now. - Stopped out on $STX $NET and reduced all of my other longs. - Added $FCX on the short side because of the crowded positioning - Now we wait for some names to tighten back up and for a bid to step back into the market.
Ariel Hernandez19,299 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
7/6/2026: Samsung takes the wind out of memory? - Samsung reported earnings and brought down $EWY which causes a domino effect in $MU $SNDK $WDC after the close. - $QQQ continues to consolidate but the action out of semiconductors was a bit lack luster. - $MAGS on the other hand trying to bounce some lead by $AAPL $TSLA $GOOGL. - $NVDA looks borderline lifeless and the market has been able to brush past that fact for several weeks now. Does that change on a loss of the 200sma. - $ARKG $XBI $IBB $PPH still the leading group but mostly extended and hard to chase at this point. - $XLF $KRE impressive action out of the banking stocks. - You can be comfortable playing themes you may not normally find yourself in. You can short former leadership. Or you can go fishing.
Ariel Hernandez36,152 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce