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Institute for the Study of War

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ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: [email protected]. https://t.co/FO1PVyOnYB

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.George Barros: "The Kremlin has exaggerated perceptions of Russian military performance by claiming faster advances and greater territorial control than the facts support. Moscow frequently asserts that Russian forces have seized settlements that in reality remain under Ukrainian control. The aim is to create the impression of steady Russian momentum and a Ukraine perpetually on the back foot—bolstering demands that Kyiv cede substantial territories as a condition for peace. This narrative persists despite Russia’s failure to fully conquer these areas after four years of war." GIF: Foreign Policy using data from ISW

.George Barros: "The Kremlin has exaggerated perceptions of Russian military performance by claiming faster advances and greater territorial control than the facts support. Moscow frequently asserts that Russian forces have seized settlements that in reality remain under Ukrainian control. The aim is to create the impression of steady Russian momentum and a Ukraine perpetually on the back foot—bolstering demands that Kyiv cede substantial territories as a condition for peace. This narrative persists despite Russia’s failure to fully conquer these areas after four years of war." GIF: Foreign Policy using data from ISW

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Ukraine's fortress belt has served as a major obstacle to the Kremlin's territorial ambitions in Ukraine over the last 11 years. The fortress belt is made up of four large cities and several towns and settlements that run north to south along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway, with a total pre-war population of over 380,537 people. Ukrainian forces first began building up defensive positions in and around these cities after retaking them from pro-Russian proxy forces who attacked and seized Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka in April 2014. Ukrainian forces have maintained control of these cities since July 2014. Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and effort into reinforcing the fortress belt and establishing significant defense industrial and defensive infrastructure in and around these cities. Russia's failure to seize Slovyansk in 2022 and ongoing struggles to envelop the fortress belt underscore the success of Ukraine's long-term efforts to reinforce the fortress belt cities. Russian forces are currently still attempting to envelop the fortress belt from the southwest and are engaged in an effort to seize it that would likely take several years to complete.

Ukraine's fortress belt has served as a major obstacle to the Kremlin's territorial ambitions in Ukraine over the last 11 years. The fortress belt is made up of four large cities and several towns and settlements that run north to south along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway, with a total pre-war population of over 380,537 people. Ukrainian forces first began building up defensive positions in and around these cities after retaking them from pro-Russian proxy forces who attacked and seized Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka in April 2014. Ukrainian forces have maintained control of these cities since July 2014. Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and effort into reinforcing the fortress belt and establishing significant defense industrial and defensive infrastructure in and around these cities. Russia's failure to seize Slovyansk in 2022 and ongoing struggles to envelop the fortress belt underscore the success of Ukraine's long-term efforts to reinforce the fortress belt cities. Russian forces are currently still attempting to envelop the fortress belt from the southwest and are engaged in an effort to seize it that would likely take several years to complete.

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Iranian Nuclear Program Reconstitution: The Institute for Science and International Security (Inst for Science) reported on October 20 that Iran is building unidentified structures at the former Taleghan 2 nuclear research site at Parchin Military Complex in southeastern Tehran Province. ISIS assessed that Iran has ”bunkered [two of the structures] over with earth,” likely to “improve their survivability” in the event of future Israeli strikes. Iranian Failures During the Israel-Iran War: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naghdi acknowledged that Iran failed to respond quickly during the Israel-Iran War. Naghdi stated that IRGC units requested authorization to strike Israel early on June 13, but the supreme leader delayed the order until the regime could appoint new commanders to replace those who Israel had just killed. Syria-Russia Relations: Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al Shaibani outlined several requirements that Russia must meet to secure basing rights and other benefits. Russia is unlikely to meet these requirements.

Iranian Nuclear Program Reconstitution: The Institute for Science and International Security (Inst for Science) reported on October 20 that Iran is building unidentified structures at the former Taleghan 2 nuclear research site at Parchin Military Complex in southeastern Tehran Province. ISIS assessed that Iran has ”bunkered [two of the structures] over with earth,” likely to “improve their survivability” in the event of future Israeli strikes. Iranian Failures During the Israel-Iran War: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naghdi acknowledged that Iran failed to respond quickly during the Israel-Iran War. Naghdi stated that IRGC units requested authorization to strike Israel early on June 13, but the supreme leader delayed the order until the regime could appoint new commanders to replace those who Israel had just killed. Syria-Russia Relations: Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al Shaibani outlined several requirements that Russia must meet to secure basing rights and other benefits. Russia is unlikely to meet these requirements.

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VIDEO: After four years of war, Ukraine’s lines are holding. Russia’s battlefield gains have stalled as Ukraine amps up its strike campaigns. The cornerstone of Ukraine’s defense is the Fortress Belt, a concentration of four large cities that Russia hasn’t been able to seize since 2014. ISW Director of Innovation and Open Source Tradecraft George Barros explains why the Fortress Belt is optimized for defense across nearly every possible topographical and geographical characteristic relevant for military terrain analysis.

VIDEO: After four years of war, Ukraine’s lines are holding. Russia’s battlefield gains have stalled as Ukraine amps up its strike campaigns. The cornerstone of Ukraine’s defense is the Fortress Belt, a concentration of four large cities that Russia hasn’t been able to seize since 2014. ISW Director of Innovation and Open Source Tradecraft George Barros explains why the Fortress Belt is optimized for defense across nearly every possible topographical and geographical characteristic relevant for military terrain analysis.

Institute for the Study of War

332,945 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

VIDEO: Russia has occupied about 20 percent of Ukraine for over four years. In this video, ISW National Security Fellow Karolina Hird explains Russia’s campaign to repopulate occupied areas of Ukraine with Russian citizens, of which occupied Mariupol has become the epicenter. The resettlement campaign is part of Moscow’s efforts to “Russify” Ukraine — forcibly remaking occupied areas in Russia’s own image.

VIDEO: Russia has occupied about 20 percent of Ukraine for over four years. In this video, ISW National Security Fellow Karolina Hird explains Russia’s campaign to repopulate occupied areas of Ukraine with Russian citizens, of which occupied Mariupol has become the epicenter. The resettlement campaign is part of Moscow’s efforts to “Russify” Ukraine — forcibly remaking occupied areas in Russia’s own image.

Institute for the Study of War

98,547 просмотров • 19 дней назад

VIDEO: Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign has undermined logistics in Russia’s operational rear. As of May 2026, Ukraine has secured a drone advantage on the battlefield, reintroduced limited elements of mechanized maneuver, and upheld a successful strike campaign against Russia. In this video, ISW’s Kateryna Stepanenko and George Barros explain how the war is entering a new phase as Ukraine's recent successes on the battlefield and beyond are challenging the positional character of the conflict that has dictated the battlefield since 2023.

VIDEO: Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign has undermined logistics in Russia’s operational rear. As of May 2026, Ukraine has secured a drone advantage on the battlefield, reintroduced limited elements of mechanized maneuver, and upheld a successful strike campaign against Russia. In this video, ISW’s Kateryna Stepanenko and George Barros explain how the war is entering a new phase as Ukraine's recent successes on the battlefield and beyond are challenging the positional character of the conflict that has dictated the battlefield since 2023.

Institute for the Study of War

108,678 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

In 2025, ISW’s independent, data-driven analysis shaped how policymakers and the public understood some of the most consequential conflicts of our time— from Ukraine’s defense and Russia’s campaign to the Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran, to China’s expanding coercive operations across the Indo-Pacific. ISW’s timely, factual intelligence ensured that decisions in Washington and allied capitals were informed by ground truth rather than adversary narratives. As the world grows more unstable and the pace of global crises accelerates, ISW’s work has never been more essential. Your support this Giving Tuesday sustains the independence, analytical depth, and precision that make ISW a trusted resource for those shaping strategy and policy.

In 2025, ISW’s independent, data-driven analysis shaped how policymakers and the public understood some of the most consequential conflicts of our time— from Ukraine’s defense and Russia’s campaign to the Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran, to China’s expanding coercive operations across the Indo-Pacific. ISW’s timely, factual intelligence ensured that decisions in Washington and allied capitals were informed by ground truth rather than adversary narratives. As the world grows more unstable and the pace of global crises accelerates, ISW’s work has never been more essential. Your support this Giving Tuesday sustains the independence, analytical depth, and precision that make ISW a trusted resource for those shaping strategy and policy.

Institute for the Study of War

21,109 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

ISW Senior Fellow Matthew McInnis spoke to Connell McShane on NewsNation about the possibility of the #Israel-#Hamas conflict escalating into a broader conflict. Watch his interview here:

ISW Senior Fellow Matthew McInnis spoke to Connell McShane on NewsNation about the possibility of the #Israel-#Hamas conflict escalating into a broader conflict. Watch his interview here:

Institute for the Study of War

45,648 просмотров • 2 лет назад

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