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Tradable Astronaut

@TradableAstro • 20,382 subscribers

My personal trading journey & insights │ Not Financial Advice │ Using The AI Terminal to catch big regime shifts 👉 @AionAnalytics

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“if you're early it is useless” Getting close to October

“if you're early it is useless” Getting close to October

14,374 Aufrufe

What Jane Street has planned for retail this October:

What Jane Street has planned for retail this October:

60,801 Aufrufe

On August 31 I posted a September roadmap with three windows: the leg, the air pocket from the 10th to the 21st, and resolution higher after. Today is the 21st. $SPX +1.5%. $NDX +2.6%. The pocket closed ON THE DATE. And under the hood the machine flipped harder than price did: macro regime 0% to 67% risk on in two sessions, liquidity upgraded to LONG, and dealers swung TWENTY THREE BILLION dollars of gamma from short to long over one opex. The full flip, page by page 🧵

On August 31 I posted a September roadmap with three windows: the leg, the air pocket from the 10th to the 21st, and resolution higher after. Today is the 21st. $SPX +1.5%. $NDX +2.6%. The pocket closed ON THE DATE. And under the hood the machine flipped harder than price did: macro regime 0% to 67% risk on in two sessions, liquidity upgraded to LONG, and dealers swung TWENTY THREE BILLION dollars of gamma from short to long over one opex. The full flip, page by page 🧵

17,746 Aufrufe

Wow this is the guy that called the bottom on $SPY 2 years in a row

Wow this is the guy that called the bottom on $SPY 2 years in a row

216,822 Aufrufe

People being long this weekend

People being long this weekend

35,458 Aufrufe

The August chop window closes at 4pm today. The window for the leg higher opens tomorrow. But read the path before you chase it: the leg is short lived. Strength into September 10, an air pocket into the 21st, and then the real move into end of September. The Aion line gives you an idea of the route. Dates, levels & receipts below 🧵

The August chop window closes at 4pm today. The window for the leg higher opens tomorrow. But read the path before you chase it: the leg is short lived. Strength into September 10, an air pocket into the 21st, and then the real move into end of September. The Aion line gives you an idea of the route. Dates, levels & receipts below 🧵

34,079 Aufrufe

Good morning Ladies & Gentleman I am sure many of you wondered why there have been a lack of posts from me, 2 reasons. 1 personal issues (all good) 2 there was no reason to update until now... We are getting closer into the end of the month that we have been talking about, one thing I would like to say is I love you all, but please with some sugar on top manage your risk always. I am not a god , i am human and data shifts everyday. Let's get into it🧵

Good morning Ladies & Gentleman I am sure many of you wondered why there have been a lack of posts from me, 2 reasons. 1 personal issues (all good) 2 there was no reason to update until now... We are getting closer into the end of the month that we have been talking about, one thing I would like to say is I love you all, but please with some sugar on top manage your risk always. I am not a god , i am human and data shifts everyday. Let's get into it🧵

14,181 Aufrufe

Two days ago the read was simple. Lose $740 and $720 prints first. $SPY just dropped 2.13% and is sitting practically on the 100 day EMA. Here is why this flush has a shelf life. I do not see it lasting past next week. Full read below🧵

Two days ago the read was simple. Lose $740 and $720 prints first. $SPY just dropped 2.13% and is sitting practically on the 100 day EMA. Here is why this flush has a shelf life. I do not see it lasting past next week. Full read below🧵

60,839 Aufrufe

Beginning of Oct vs 2 weeks in

Beginning of Oct vs 2 weeks in

12,492 Aufrufe

Yesterday the washout scanner fired on 46 names in one day, at the 90th percentile of the last 60 days of scans. Mass washouts like that have one address in the history: near lows, not tops. Today the solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr 20 day forecast flipped from 49% to 76% and $QQQ's dealer book eased back to PINNED. The board is picking a bottom while the risk models are still wearing helmets. Full read 🧵

Yesterday the washout scanner fired on 46 names in one day, at the 90th percentile of the last 60 days of scans. Mass washouts like that have one address in the history: near lows, not tops. Today the solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr 20 day forecast flipped from 49% to 76% and $QQQ's dealer book eased back to PINNED. The board is picking a bottom while the risk models are still wearing helmets. Full read 🧵

26,943 Aufrufe

Yesterday's thread ended with one sentence: the leg is on when the book finishes flipping. It finished overnight. $SPY dealers: POSITIVE gamma, +$6.08B. $QQQ: POSITIVE, +$1.7B. Two days ago $SPY was -$9.65B, the shortest book of the year. A $15 billion swing in 48 hours, and the dashboards flipped with it. The whole terminal, top to bottom 🧵

Yesterday's thread ended with one sentence: the leg is on when the book finishes flipping. It finished overnight. $SPY dealers: POSITIVE gamma, +$6.08B. $QQQ: POSITIVE, +$1.7B. Two days ago $SPY was -$9.65B, the shortest book of the year. A $15 billion swing in 48 hours, and the dashboards flipped with it. The whole terminal, top to bottom 🧵

17,184 Aufrufe

" I have started to add, but want to wait for the fed to be over as there is still some risk with $720 node for Thursday, after this week going into the following weeks we should see $770/$780 $SPY " - in video "If $QQQ tags 660 this week, I'm buying with both hands." hit $661, now at $723: This will be my last full public thread with full data for everyone Data & thoughts below🧵

" I have started to add, but want to wait for the fed to be over as there is still some risk with $720 node for Thursday, after this week going into the following weeks we should see $770/$780 $SPY " - in video "If $QQQ tags 660 this week, I'm buying with both hands." hit $661, now at $723: This will be my last full public thread with full data for everyone Data & thoughts below🧵

30,564 Aufrufe

Nine days ago I put solar on bottom watch. Dead last sector, zero names in the top tier, everyone's favorite thing to ignore. Since then it seems to have printed the exact same sequence the July low printed. Capitulation, then stress stabilizing while price stops going down. Nobody is watching this board. That is usually when it pays to. 🧵

Nine days ago I put solar on bottom watch. Dead last sector, zero names in the top tier, everyone's favorite thing to ignore. Since then it seems to have printed the exact same sequence the July low printed. Capitulation, then stress stabilizing while price stops going down. Nobody is watching this board. That is usually when it pays to. 🧵

18,536 Aufrufe

Now let me tell you about September…

Now let me tell you about September…

45,387 Aufrufe

Jobs came in hot this morning, 162K against 55K expected, and the tape barely blinked: $SPX 7,720, off a third of a percent. $NDX flat and green. $VIX 14, DOWN on a hawkish print. Underneath, the three most important books in the market have not moved their story an inch: turbulence dated mid month, quarter end higher. The full tour: both dashboards, all three heatmaps, one sector map 🧵

Jobs came in hot this morning, 162K against 55K expected, and the tape barely blinked: $SPX 7,720, off a third of a percent. $NDX flat and green. $VIX 14, DOWN on a hawkish print. Underneath, the three most important books in the market have not moved their story an inch: turbulence dated mid month, quarter end higher. The full tour: both dashboards, all three heatmaps, one sector map 🧵

12,855 Aufrufe

It’s not June 23rd yet is it? - PDT removed tomorrow - $SPCX IPO June 12th - Liquidity spike into next week None of those look bearish to me, market has to be HOT for these things

It’s not June 23rd yet is it? - PDT removed tomorrow - $SPCX IPO June 12th - Liquidity spike into next week None of those look bearish to me, market has to be HOT for these things

32,203 Aufrufe

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just some clarity post here for everyone October expectation from my opinions & research is $SPY 5%ish drawdown and $QQQ 7-10% by end of oct around 18-22nd and put in the floor there for a choppy uptrend into eoy Buying that dip with both hands $SPY $730-$735 if it gets there $QQQ $680-$690 (more volatile ik, maybe even $700) These are my own rough estimates from what i am seeing so please take it with a grain of salt and DYOR. Things can change and moves can extend due to panic and things unravel / accelerate. Indices can visit near ATHs/make new AThs but i will be more risk off as i stated earlier this week, near interim tops high beta names can be explosive so i may play some things with small size. Weird market we have been in for a while. I will take advantage of oct to sell puts on names i want along with taking some put debits when the time is right, if you're early it is useless. Markets tend to extend both ways so if we get there, things accelerate the models wont flinch until it starts to see a flip, it is better to be patient than to be early Looking for model consensus flips, extreme measures hitting, heatmaps starting to flip and macro regime to shift These are some of the things i look for along with analogues/quant tab that has the built in indicators as well Can eat my alive in the comments, but that is my thesis and i believe big in "avoid ruin at all costs", so when these bigger windows for pain open up i take them seriously. Hope this helps and if you want to eat me alive in the comments that also works

just some clarity post here for everyone October expectation from my opinions & research is $SPY 5%ish drawdown and $QQQ 7-10% by end of oct around 18-22nd and put in the floor there for a choppy uptrend into eoy Buying that dip with both hands $SPY $730-$735 if it gets there $QQQ $680-$690 (more volatile ik, maybe even $700) These are my own rough estimates from what i am seeing so please take it with a grain of salt and DYOR. Things can change and moves can extend due to panic and things unravel / accelerate. Indices can visit near ATHs/make new AThs but i will be more risk off as i stated earlier this week, near interim tops high beta names can be explosive so i may play some things with small size. Weird market we have been in for a while. I will take advantage of oct to sell puts on names i want along with taking some put debits when the time is right, if you're early it is useless. Markets tend to extend both ways so if we get there, things accelerate the models wont flinch until it starts to see a flip, it is better to be patient than to be early Looking for model consensus flips, extreme measures hitting, heatmaps starting to flip and macro regime to shift These are some of the things i look for along with analogues/quant tab that has the built in indicators as well Can eat my alive in the comments, but that is my thesis and i believe big in "avoid ruin at all costs", so when these bigger windows for pain open up i take them seriously. Hope this helps and if you want to eat me alive in the comments that also works

Tradable Astronaut

32,104 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

The market has a window for one more move higher into the end of this week. After that I am not carrying real size on the risk on side anymore. October is coming, and the same machine that dated the September pocket to the day has already dated the next one. Here is the window and here is the deadline 🧵

The market has a window for one more move higher into the end of this week. After that I am not carrying real size on the risk on side anymore. October is coming, and the same machine that dated the September pocket to the day has already dated the next one. Here is the window and here is the deadline 🧵

Tradable Astronaut

37,629 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

4 days ago I gave a warning that things have changed Most ignored it, over-leveraged traders get destroyed in times like this. The market will have head-fakes both ways into Sept. Sept should have a new ATH, but careful into EOM We are the only ones giving live updates Here's why🧵:

4 days ago I gave a warning that things have changed Most ignored it, over-leveraged traders get destroyed in times like this. The market will have head-fakes both ways into Sept. Sept should have a new ATH, but careful into EOM We are the only ones giving live updates Here's why🧵:

Tradable Astronaut

52,335 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Market Update & thoughts Along with a brand new update to Aion! Hope everyone likes it❤️ $SPY l $QQQ l $NVDA

Tradable Astronaut

56,966 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$SPY looks like it has a small pocket to the end of week but it's very thin and the bigger picture shows the market could lead sideways / lower into the middle of the month, with a leg higher into quarter end. We were supposed to make new ATH's this week, if we don't it is quite disappointing how small the upside move was. Here is the full data read that you don't want to miss below🧵

$SPY looks like it has a small pocket to the end of week but it's very thin and the bigger picture shows the market could lead sideways / lower into the middle of the month, with a leg higher into quarter end. We were supposed to make new ATH's this week, if we don't it is quite disappointing how small the upside move was. Here is the full data read that you don't want to miss below🧵

Tradable Astronaut

13,584 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen

So it has been 6 days since the original post saying - "Well that was fun, story has changed for the next 2 weeks. Time to be more selective & nimble if you're a leveraged trader" Indices since: $SPY -2% $QQQ -4% Over-leveraged traders wiped.. The story is nimble into the final stretch for a new ATH in Sept... and well you know what happens October Here's the full breakdown that you don't want to miss🧵:

So it has been 6 days since the original post saying - "Well that was fun, story has changed for the next 2 weeks. Time to be more selective & nimble if you're a leveraged trader" Indices since: $SPY -2% $QQQ -4% Over-leveraged traders wiped.. The story is nimble into the final stretch for a new ATH in Sept... and well you know what happens October Here's the full breakdown that you don't want to miss🧵:

Tradable Astronaut

22,962 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

All right a little clarity post for everyone as it seems i could've read things incorrectly. This post will be data that i will explain and I want to hear everyone's interpretation of it. Multiple things at play, let's get into it🧵

All right a little clarity post for everyone as it seems i could've read things incorrectly. This post will be data that i will explain and I want to hear everyone's interpretation of it. Multiple things at play, let's get into it🧵

Tradable Astronaut

14,496 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen

Being long over the weekend On Friday vs On Saturday

Being long over the weekend On Friday vs On Saturday

Tradable Astronaut

66,622 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

1 month giveaway to 5 people for Aion PSG have to win the final today 3 month giveaway to whoever gets the score right Allez Paris SG!🇫🇷 (Must be following + repost to enter)

1 month giveaway to 5 people for Aion PSG have to win the final today 3 month giveaway to whoever gets the score right Allez Paris SG!🇫🇷 (Must be following + repost to enter)

Tradable Astronaut

13,063 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Trump: "are you guys having fun yet?"

Trump: "are you guys having fun yet?"

Tradable Astronaut

11,841 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

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