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Aaron Burnett

@aaronburnett • 16,339 subscribers

Founder, CEO @ Mach33 | Research and Investment in Space & Expansion Technologies

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Someone just caught Artemis from their flight. Cool view of little piece of history!

Someone just caught Artemis from their flight. Cool view of little piece of history!

3,062,492 views

There has been a lot of hand wringing on the appropriate valuation of SpaceX. Some large institutions believe SpaceX can only be valued at half what the market seems to be willing to pay for it. Others are claiming it has 15X appreciation ahead of it. Almost all of this difference of opinion comes down to how comfortable you are modeling beyond 2030 and what valuation method you use. 2030 valuation using a traditional Gordan DCF produces a very different result than a 2040 EV/EBITDA Multiple. Both have pros and cons. Most analysts don’t really discuss this and lead with a headline number. We are very comfortable modeling out to 2040, as large portions of what SpaceX is proposing is real world infrastructure, which provides modelable physics constraints to anchor against. The analysis we released today explores this in-depth, its open to the public all the way through IPO. I highly encourage you check it out prior to then. We’ve run 5,000 monte carlo runs across 500 variables (real number, even though it sounds fake) and three valuation methods. This video is of a 3D cloud chart showing every simulation outcome expected in valuation output across two of the most impactful variables to the model when using an EV/EBITDA multiple from 2026 to 2040. The horizontal axis is the steepness of the orbital data center demand S-curve. The vertical axis is the rate at which chip compute efficiency becomes cheaper. Each of the 5,000 dots is one simulated future; green dots are the ones where SpaceX's 2040 value clears the $1.77T IPO line, over time. Under EV/EBITDA valuation through 2040, 96% of our simulated futures clear the expected IPO price once the bell rings Friday. We aren’t publishing this publicly to tell investors what the stock is worth, we’re publishing this to help investors understand the world of outcomes, what the fundamentals suggest through 2040, and what frankly most analysis simply won’t share. SpaceX is a generational company working on long term infrastructure harnessing a domain no one has been able to tap in so far: space. It deserves doing the work as an investor. because this in not financial advice. The cleanest way to hold SpaceX is a bond stapled to a call option (AI-Compute); Starlink is the bond, the near term SatCom annuity that funds the next flywheel. Understand the world of outcomes and take your position accordingly. Comparables and P/E won't take you far enough.

There has been a lot of hand wringing on the appropriate valuation of SpaceX. Some large institutions believe SpaceX can only be valued at half what the market seems to be willing to pay for it. Others are claiming it has 15X appreciation ahead of it. Almost all of this difference of opinion comes down to how comfortable you are modeling beyond 2030 and what valuation method you use. 2030 valuation using a traditional Gordan DCF produces a very different result than a 2040 EV/EBITDA Multiple. Both have pros and cons. Most analysts don’t really discuss this and lead with a headline number. We are very comfortable modeling out to 2040, as large portions of what SpaceX is proposing is real world infrastructure, which provides modelable physics constraints to anchor against. The analysis we released today explores this in-depth, its open to the public all the way through IPO. I highly encourage you check it out prior to then. We’ve run 5,000 monte carlo runs across 500 variables (real number, even though it sounds fake) and three valuation methods. This video is of a 3D cloud chart showing every simulation outcome expected in valuation output across two of the most impactful variables to the model when using an EV/EBITDA multiple from 2026 to 2040. The horizontal axis is the steepness of the orbital data center demand S-curve. The vertical axis is the rate at which chip compute efficiency becomes cheaper. Each of the 5,000 dots is one simulated future; green dots are the ones where SpaceX's 2040 value clears the $1.77T IPO line, over time. Under EV/EBITDA valuation through 2040, 96% of our simulated futures clear the expected IPO price once the bell rings Friday. We aren’t publishing this publicly to tell investors what the stock is worth, we’re publishing this to help investors understand the world of outcomes, what the fundamentals suggest through 2040, and what frankly most analysis simply won’t share. SpaceX is a generational company working on long term infrastructure harnessing a domain no one has been able to tap in so far: space. It deserves doing the work as an investor. because this in not financial advice. The cleanest way to hold SpaceX is a bond stapled to a call option (AI-Compute); Starlink is the bond, the near term SatCom annuity that funds the next flywheel. Understand the world of outcomes and take your position accordingly. Comparables and P/E won't take you far enough.

1,522,437 views

i'm not sure what spacex uses internally, but i'm about 90% sure this is the most comprehensive (and maybe complex) starlink connectivity financial model on the planet today. building off years of starlink analysis, a freshly built 192 market/377,270 geographic area data pack, and more than a month of iterations. a full reference model is available to the public at this link including python to help you run your own model scenarios. (hint: ask grok bot to download the plugin or model directly and manage the python) this model splits the world into over 300,000 cells and tracks each satellite beam by beam to granularly predict how much throughput can make it to literally any location on the globe based on its population density. (in the video you can see the forecasted beam spread simulation over 15 years) One of my favorite charts is the model assumption sensitivity analysis. It tells the story of which assumption carries the most weight over time starting with adoption and giving way to enterprise penetration and pricing over the 2030s. highly recommend copying the prompt and asking grok bot to dive in. pro tip: internally all of our team shares model insights via html charts. ask grok bot to condense core learnings that you care about into charts, websites or explainer videos for you. grok probably won't make fun of you for asking stupid questions (i know this for sure). kudos to Vlad Saigau for building the connectivity model with one hand literally behind his back (he broke his wrist).

i'm not sure what spacex uses internally, but i'm about 90% sure this is the most comprehensive (and maybe complex) starlink connectivity financial model on the planet today. building off years of starlink analysis, a freshly built 192 market/377,270 geographic area data pack, and more than a month of iterations. a full reference model is available to the public at this link including python to help you run your own model scenarios. (hint: ask grok bot to download the plugin or model directly and manage the python) this model splits the world into over 300,000 cells and tracks each satellite beam by beam to granularly predict how much throughput can make it to literally any location on the globe based on its population density. (in the video you can see the forecasted beam spread simulation over 15 years) One of my favorite charts is the model assumption sensitivity analysis. It tells the story of which assumption carries the most weight over time starting with adoption and giving way to enterprise penetration and pricing over the 2030s. highly recommend copying the prompt and asking grok bot to dive in. pro tip: internally all of our team shares model insights via html charts. ask grok bot to condense core learnings that you care about into charts, websites or explainer videos for you. grok probably won't make fun of you for asking stupid questions (i know this for sure). kudos to Vlad Saigau for building the connectivity model with one hand literally behind his back (he broke his wrist).

15,107 views

I’m pretty sure SpaceX accidentally built a transformer. At least that’s what it sounds like here.

I’m pretty sure SpaceX accidentally built a transformer. At least that’s what it sounds like here.

206,928 views

What will it cost to launch a kilogram into space in 2040, if you don't own the rocket? We took a stab at forecasting customer launch price over the next decade. We try very hard to account for everything in a bottom up model. Built off 77k rows of cleaned historical data, more than 500 assumptions and then monte carlo'd 1,999 times. hopefully, we are less wrong then the next guy, but we'll see. Core takeaways: Starship opening to customers and when it does is 'the hinge' in the model. no one else has a viable path to the scale of reusable tonnage to orbit to effect customer prices. Internal usage (like Starlink/Starmind for SpaceX, or similar constellations for others like Terrawave/Blue Origin) dramatically dominates the total upmass to orbit driven by reduced internal costs. Even with the dropping customer prices the difference in $/kg between internal and external uses is dramatic. due to things like payload optimization. Interestingly enough, this model produces a fairly negative case (for customers purchasing launch) in the late 2030s where starship capacity is driven away from customers and toward Moon/Mars and internal endeavors causing a demand shock. You can read about the model, core assumptions and it's build methodology here...

What will it cost to launch a kilogram into space in 2040, if you don't own the rocket? We took a stab at forecasting customer launch price over the next decade. We try very hard to account for everything in a bottom up model. Built off 77k rows of cleaned historical data, more than 500 assumptions and then monte carlo'd 1,999 times. hopefully, we are less wrong then the next guy, but we'll see. Core takeaways: Starship opening to customers and when it does is 'the hinge' in the model. no one else has a viable path to the scale of reusable tonnage to orbit to effect customer prices. Internal usage (like Starlink/Starmind for SpaceX, or similar constellations for others like Terrawave/Blue Origin) dramatically dominates the total upmass to orbit driven by reduced internal costs. Even with the dropping customer prices the difference in $/kg between internal and external uses is dramatic. due to things like payload optimization. Interestingly enough, this model produces a fairly negative case (for customers purchasing launch) in the late 2030s where starship capacity is driven away from customers and toward Moon/Mars and internal endeavors causing a demand shock. You can read about the model, core assumptions and it's build methodology here...

12,444 views

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Cathie discussing SpaceX convergence on orbital data centers and reusable rockets with Peter and friends. Ark and team deserve a ton of credit for not only recognizing that last year was the right time to begin diving deep into SpaceX modeling, but also for being so generous with crediting us for the help that we provided. Every single time Cathie discusses the open source model, she goes out of her way to mention that it was a collaborative effort with Mach33. In my experience, Ark is a high character organization and I’m proud to work with them. Thank you for giving us a shot early on. I’m very excited for the next model release! We are hard at work on it.

Cathie discussing SpaceX convergence on orbital data centers and reusable rockets with Peter and friends. Ark and team deserve a ton of credit for not only recognizing that last year was the right time to begin diving deep into SpaceX modeling, but also for being so generous with crediting us for the help that we provided. Every single time Cathie discusses the open source model, she goes out of her way to mention that it was a collaborative effort with Mach33. In my experience, Ark is a high character organization and I’m proud to work with them. Thank you for giving us a shot early on. I’m very excited for the next model release! We are hard at work on it.

5,930,693 views • 9 months ago

What’s crazy is that this bandwidth growth is well known but it’s likely impact is totally dismissed at the same time. For context here is Starlinks historic bandwidth growth by generation. The V2 -> V3 inflection will 3-10x greater than the V1 -> V2 inflection was on this video.

What’s crazy is that this bandwidth growth is well known but it’s likely impact is totally dismissed at the same time. For context here is Starlinks historic bandwidth growth by generation. The V2 -> V3 inflection will 3-10x greater than the V1 -> V2 inflection was on this video.

654,167 views • 1 month ago

To put V3 Starlink significance into context for investors, here is a starlink bandwidth estimate based on our conservative launch forecasts out to 2028. Our base case launch forecast suggests 8 Pbps of bandwidth (8,000 Terabits per second) in orbit by 2028, which only uses 151 Starship launches (1 launch every ~2 days, Elon and SpaceX are targeting 8k+ a year) 8 Pbps is enough bandwidth to more than 10x all of Starlink's bandwidth today, and put Starlink's global 2028 bandwidth supply about equal to ALL of the global internet traffic bandwith demand in 2025.

To put V3 Starlink significance into context for investors, here is a starlink bandwidth estimate based on our conservative launch forecasts out to 2028. Our base case launch forecast suggests 8 Pbps of bandwidth (8,000 Terabits per second) in orbit by 2028, which only uses 151 Starship launches (1 launch every ~2 days, Elon and SpaceX are targeting 8k+ a year) 8 Pbps is enough bandwidth to more than 10x all of Starlink's bandwidth today, and put Starlink's global 2028 bandwidth supply about equal to ALL of the global internet traffic bandwith demand in 2025.

360,206 views • 1 month ago

Since 1957 more than 22,196 tonnes of usable payload has been deployed to space by more than 20 countries and private companies. For 69 of the last 70 years, Russia (including the Soviet Union) led the world in cumulative usable payload. According to our global launch manifest, that changed in 2026 when SpaceX tallied 7,962 T of usable payload into orbit as of July 2026, driven heavily by Starlink deployments. Based on current trajectory, it seems unlikely SpaceX will be giving up their lead anytime soon. The Mach33 global launch manifest has 7,117 rows of launch and 27,537 rows of payloads. Our premium analysis this week looked at all 70 years of launch. This animation compares usable payload mass, which removes the Shuttle Orbiter Mass to correct for actual usable mass deployed. Grok Bot was used to animate the Mach33 data. Also Grok Bot was used to compose an original symphony for the music on this animation.

Since 1957 more than 22,196 tonnes of usable payload has been deployed to space by more than 20 countries and private companies. For 69 of the last 70 years, Russia (including the Soviet Union) led the world in cumulative usable payload. According to our global launch manifest, that changed in 2026 when SpaceX tallied 7,962 T of usable payload into orbit as of July 2026, driven heavily by Starlink deployments. Based on current trajectory, it seems unlikely SpaceX will be giving up their lead anytime soon. The Mach33 global launch manifest has 7,117 rows of launch and 27,537 rows of payloads. Our premium analysis this week looked at all 70 years of launch. This animation compares usable payload mass, which removes the Shuttle Orbiter Mass to correct for actual usable mass deployed. Grok Bot was used to animate the Mach33 data. Also Grok Bot was used to compose an original symphony for the music on this animation.

320,318 views • 2 months ago

There is some confusion about Elon’s mention of $1T revenue from internal targets moving from 2031 to 2030/2029. He said explicitly that the $1T was not ARR just revenue (I believe that means cumulative revenue). Their goals are pretty audacious already good idea not to get ahead of ourselves and put even bigger claims into the expectations sphere. In theory this would place the ARR in 2029/2030 in that ~$300B+ range, though I’m not privy to internal targets. Here is a clip of the recording of that exact phrasing.

There is some confusion about Elon’s mention of $1T revenue from internal targets moving from 2031 to 2030/2029. He said explicitly that the $1T was not ARR just revenue (I believe that means cumulative revenue). Their goals are pretty audacious already good idea not to get ahead of ourselves and put even bigger claims into the expectations sphere. In theory this would place the ARR in 2029/2030 in that ~$300B+ range, though I’m not privy to internal targets. Here is a clip of the recording of that exact phrasing.

305,312 views • 2 months ago

In case you want to relive the epic Terafab intro over and over again. “In order to understand the universe you must explore the universe” - Elon Musk

In case you want to relive the epic Terafab intro over and over again. “In order to understand the universe you must explore the universe” - Elon Musk

670,365 views • 7 months ago

Here’s the thing about this, if you look at the actual historical data SpaceX (which we have extensively). It’s conclusive that even if somehow this was all “old wine” (it isn’t) as Gibney describes it’s an absolutely historic story of repackaging. Across the board all time records for humanity. Here are some of the charts to prove it. When you are upset ideologically there is a very strong need to belittle the violators truth be damned. If you can’t acknowledge the undeniable truth then you don’t have credibility as narrator of truth, imo. Instead you are narrator of ideological fiction.

Here’s the thing about this, if you look at the actual historical data SpaceX (which we have extensively). It’s conclusive that even if somehow this was all “old wine” (it isn’t) as Gibney describes it’s an absolutely historic story of repackaging. Across the board all time records for humanity. Here are some of the charts to prove it. When you are upset ideologically there is a very strong need to belittle the violators truth be damned. If you can’t acknowledge the undeniable truth then you don’t have credibility as narrator of truth, imo. Instead you are narrator of ideological fiction.

82,086 views • 1 month ago

Starbase is a surreal experience. This megastructure is building and assembling 10 starships and 5 super heavy boosters (according to Elon) this year. Steel comes in one end and the world’s largest most powerful rockets come out the other. You can just drive by and look directly into the future. It’s crazy to think this whole structure, vehicles, and launch pads only cost ~$15B (the same amount Google spends on EU fines in 18 months).

Starbase is a surreal experience. This megastructure is building and assembling 10 starships and 5 super heavy boosters (according to Elon) this year. Steel comes in one end and the world’s largest most powerful rockets come out the other. You can just drive by and look directly into the future. It’s crazy to think this whole structure, vehicles, and launch pads only cost ~$15B (the same amount Google spends on EU fines in 18 months).

124,830 views • 5 months ago

This sure looks like hot-swappable compute nodes on the AI sat. Incredible. Maybe I’m just seeing what I want to see?

This sure looks like hot-swappable compute nodes on the AI sat. Incredible. Maybe I’m just seeing what I want to see?

96,332 views • 4 months ago

David Sacks giving Starlink V3 math the attention it deserves. Each Starship is the equivalent of 20 F9 launches of bandwidth. Elon estimated that they get up 1,000 V3 by Q2 (not one of his aggressive estimates) which would more the double the total global Starlink bandwidth in less than a year. Our modeling suggests they will be able to put up to 4,000s V3 sats by EoY 2027. Global bandwidth from orbit could very well be 5x what it is today within 18 months. This is a cash generating business that will handle a lot of their data center build out. All of Brad’s points on handwringing around compute financing become far easier to understand in that light.

David Sacks giving Starlink V3 math the attention it deserves. Each Starship is the equivalent of 20 F9 launches of bandwidth. Elon estimated that they get up 1,000 V3 by Q2 (not one of his aggressive estimates) which would more the double the total global Starlink bandwidth in less than a year. Our modeling suggests they will be able to put up to 4,000s V3 sats by EoY 2027. Global bandwidth from orbit could very well be 5x what it is today within 18 months. This is a cash generating business that will handle a lot of their data center build out. All of Brad’s points on handwringing around compute financing become far easier to understand in that light.

53,980 views • 2 months ago

It’s clear that Wall Street doesn’t get the SpaceX culture of conquering audacious challenges. It blows their mind that aerospace engineers can jump into super compute infrastructure and dominate with what appears to be relative ease. It’s good to see Elon, Gwynne and Bret united on what makes them special in this era of infrastructure buildout. If you’ve followed the company for a while and talked with employees this isn’t that surprising. Insane goals and audacious challenge tackling is in the DNA. You’re welcome to question their abilities to tackle some tough goals, but I wouldn’t bet against them. Their track record of execution is historic. They won’t hit every target but I’d bet the exceed expectations

It’s clear that Wall Street doesn’t get the SpaceX culture of conquering audacious challenges. It blows their mind that aerospace engineers can jump into super compute infrastructure and dominate with what appears to be relative ease. It’s good to see Elon, Gwynne and Bret united on what makes them special in this era of infrastructure buildout. If you’ve followed the company for a while and talked with employees this isn’t that surprising. Insane goals and audacious challenge tackling is in the DNA. You’re welcome to question their abilities to tackle some tough goals, but I wouldn’t bet against them. Their track record of execution is historic. They won’t hit every target but I’d bet the exceed expectations

22,079 views • 1 month ago

David Friedberg on All-in this week asking about what happens if Elon is successful with space data centers. What stuck out to me is he frames his question on China as if they aren’t already pursuing this. Similar to energy generation investment at large China is ahead of space data centers (from a national planning and commitment perspective). Obviously China has several national champions pursuing different strategies and launched early tests on their “Three Body Problem Compute Constellation” over 6 months ago. It’s a bit surprising how few even know that simple fact. I think it would help the national narrative if we stopped pretending like this science project from an overly optimistic trillionaire and position it that way it should be… as arguably the most important international infrastructure race of the early 21st century. We’re lucky that Elon is leading that charge with the massive Starship upmass and cost advantage today. I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see a US national imperative in similar scale to Golden Dome in 2028-2029 time frame.

David Friedberg on All-in this week asking about what happens if Elon is successful with space data centers. What stuck out to me is he frames his question on China as if they aren’t already pursuing this. Similar to energy generation investment at large China is ahead of space data centers (from a national planning and commitment perspective). Obviously China has several national champions pursuing different strategies and launched early tests on their “Three Body Problem Compute Constellation” over 6 months ago. It’s a bit surprising how few even know that simple fact. I think it would help the national narrative if we stopped pretending like this science project from an overly optimistic trillionaire and position it that way it should be… as arguably the most important international infrastructure race of the early 21st century. We’re lucky that Elon is leading that charge with the massive Starship upmass and cost advantage today. I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see a US national imperative in similar scale to Golden Dome in 2028-2029 time frame.

21,345 views • 8 months ago

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