Anurag Singh
@anuragsingh_as • 52,920 subscribers
Value Investor | Hedge Fund | Ansid Capital
Videos
It’s happening. RBI recommends the finance minister to eliminate the LRS outflow limit from $250K to $0 & lower it to $50K for education & healthcare spends. It’s all on predictable lines. No domestic money can exit India. Looks like it’s the HNIs taking $ out. Don’t blame FIIs
Anurag Singh540,763 görüntüleme • 10 gün önce
SHORT POST: #RelianceJio IPO I haven’t heard a single critique of this IPO from anyone so far. So on the festive season of Dussehra, that stands for the victory of good over evil, I don’t want to be the evil one. Having said this, here are some facts. The basics The IPO is just a 3% share dilution that wipes off the Rs 30K debt. 3% sale will create a scramble & scarcity premium where people want to grab a share of the story. There is no real price discovery on such low free float. Jio is trying to benchmark Airtel at $110 - 120 BN and add a reliance growth premium to that. The strategy for IPO pricing seems fine relative to India valuation basket. But the argument look overstretched when we compare to global players. Verizon and AT&T are valued at $177 BN & $154 BN respectively. Jio at $16 Billion revenue & 14% growth rate (5 year avg), it may take another 20 years to catch up to AT&T revenues (Assume rupee depreciation rate of 4%). But Jio is asking for almost 70% of market cap as of the American peers today. So clearly, asking IPO price is not comparable internationally. But considering Airtel valuations, it seems okay. The Headwinds: The listing would make Jio one of the top 5 companies in India on market cap. How much future returns do you expect from top 5 company in India for next decade? You decide.The buy case gets weaker when we examine the 14% revenue growth achieved largely on the growth of 530 Million subscribers. Compared to the avg ARPU of $45 for American counterparts, the ARPU for Indian wireless customers has stayed notoriously stagnant below $2 per month (INR 200) since last 20 years (on nominal basis). So the bull case of rapidly improving ARPU looks like an impossibility given the experience of last 2 decades. Final take: If this gets a listing pop or appreciation of 30%, we’re looking at the biggest telecom company in the world on market cap. Ready for that. ? In a market devoid of serious technology plays & overstretched valuations, investors would latch on to anything that promises enterprise technology driven future. The IPO market may be underestimating the investments that are needed to be that technology player vs what it is today – a utility telecom services provider. Hope that doesn’t make me the evil one. Enjoy the party. My discussion with NDTV Profit.
Anurag Singh237,983 görüntüleme • 16 gün önce
India is unique amongst global markets where 75% of the retail money is being invested in the mid and small caps. In every other bull markets most money flows to mkt leaders. This gush of liquidity has distorted Indian valuations to unrealistic levels. An NSE is valued as much as the NASDAQ, imagine that. Some day this distortion has to get corrected. I’m sure the retail investors would soon realise that money is not made just by throwing good money after bad. It may not happen tomorrow but the day of reckoning is coming up. My discussion at NDTV Profit News this morning.
Anurag Singh174,275 görüntüleme • 16 gün önce
This is probably a first in MF industry. #NileshShah recommends investing in global defense companies using the LRS scheme. “Don’t be invested only in Indian defense firms. Make a global portfolio”. A clear voice on over-valuation in Indian cos. Invest outside. What’s your excuse?
Anurag Singh453,243 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Jio listing: Quick thoughts - World’s most valued telecom company belongs to India.? At $130 BN, Jio is almost hitting AT&T market cap of $155 BN & Verizon mkt cap of $177 BN. In other words, imagine if Indian economy becomes EQUAL to American economy “tomorrow”. That’s the valuations at which we’re buying Airtel & Jio today. Imagine how far is that. At 14% CAGR growth, Jio will take 20 years to catch up to AT&T revenue. Thats why international investors find valuations in India beyond sanity. On ARPU - Indian ARPU is at of below Rs 220 for last 20 years. It was the same in 2006. How can you count on future growth? Go ahead and enjoy the party. But if investors think they can make money on this in next 10 years- I don’t think so. If you overpay, you carry all the risk. My discussion on Business Today Business Today
Anurag Singh71,689 görüntüleme • 9 gün önce
Finally, an acknowledgment. Govt explains “high” #GDP “We knew there is a problem with the methodology. We couldn’t correct it in 2021 because of “COVID”. But when we corrected last year, we WARNED that the growth would look much better. Don’t complain about it later”😀 Unbelievable. Who needs a warning for high growth? May be the pliant media that runs with absolutely no understanding of the same. Business channels included. What a joke.
Anurag Singh296,799 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
There are times when industry leaders are available at bargain prices. But market knows the price, not the value. You can either chase momentum train or buy value & sit at ease for 5 yrs. It’s time to sell the house & buy that bank. The blue one. My discussion on ET NOW
Anurag Singh131,845 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
History will bear the record. I’ve been very clear since 2024 that SIPs in Indian markets will not work for anyone and investors will eventually discontinue them. All this could unfold before 2030. Investing doesn’t work when it becomes a herd game. US is an exception to this.
Anurag Singh313,183 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
#GST reforms: Quick take FY 26 GST budget: INR 26 lac crore Post rationalisation: INR 25.5 lac crore Govt revenue post “reforms” is almost the same as before. How can you save tax when GST collection stays the same? Read numbers. Avoid noise. Knowledge is key!
Anurag Singh473,239 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
#ScottBessent just now: #China had 13% oil imports from Russia pre 2022 & now is 16%. So Chinas has diversified oil inputs #India had 1% Russian oil pre war but now has 42%. India is just profiteering…this Indian arbitrage has sprung post war, this is Unacceptable. #CNBC
Anurag Singh445,171 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
SIP disaster awaits: Short story. Why the India #SIP investors will struggle to make money ? When everyone believes an investing story, it crowds out the asset values to the point that the assumption fails to work. SIP story was a retrospective analysis story. It has ruined the markets just the same way as any other asset bubble. See the market construct now - Who are the sellers - FIIs, Pvt Equity & even promotors. They sell by choice. Who is the buyer - Retail money driven by DIIs who are forced buyers. This construct has never made money for retail investors. It results in disasters, globally. It’s a case of Rich getting richer & you are buying it. If you think that foreign institutions and Pvt equity don’t have value judgment but retail buyers understand the “India story”, then you probably have entered in markets after 2017. My discussion with Neeraj Bajpai
Anurag Singh541,008 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce
Short Post: India capital outflows: Foreign investors typically see 3 near term headwinds that could inhibit growth in Indian markets- 1. AI is a white collar job killer. Eventually it will and is already killing white collar jobs in legal, medical, media, financials & tech industries. This may impact employment & consumption in an economy like India that has surplus workforce. 2. Indian household debt to GDP has spiraled very quickly from 20% of GDP pre pandemic to almost 46% of GDP now. For reference, America is at 55%. A 46%, Indian household looks over leveraged & can crack. Income has grown slower than consumption post 2020 that indicates debt based consumption. 3. Finally, the economic reforms have come to a near halt. Instead, recent actions by few regulators indicates a real risk to governance across sectors. Recent hyper activity by regulators is just an indication that govt is okay with the same. Meanwhile the trade deal with US is nowhere in sight. My discussion with CNBC-AWAAZ
Anurag Singh60,635 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
SHORT POST: Time for contra #SIPs? Since SIP has become the new LIC. A herd behavior Quoting from the movie “Drishyam 2” “Sawaal ye nahin hai ke aapke ankhoon ke saamne kya hai. Sawaal ye hai ki aap dekh kya rahe hain ? “ #FIIs don’t matter anymore in Indian markets as they hold just 15% of market now. However, FIIs are speaking with their money. They’re selling. They see these prices as an opportunity to exit. But the focus on FIIs is a distraction. With 85% of Indian markets held by domestic money, the valuation is purely a function of how domestic investors value India. It is also a function of fund flows & your SIPs. Indian markets have capital controls. So money can’t freely invest outside. This makes the market overvalued compared to other developed peers like UK, Korea, Japan, etc where investors don’t have such restrictions. Promotor holdings have dropped from 48% to 40% in last few years. This should make investors think. While you’re buying, the owners are selling. Why ? Even the erstwhile US registered firms are now registering in India to list on #NSE. It’s not out of patriotism. It is because India is now listing the most expensively priced #IPOs. Everyone wants that. Real money is made by going against the herd. #SIPs are now a popular herd strategy. Hypothetical SIP works as nobody was doing that before. Now that everyone does that, it may not work anymore. A herd strategy doesn’t make money. Popular strategy becomes a #LIC. A generation invested there building dream castles. Nothing happened. These policies provided 5% returns when FDs were at 15% interest. SIPs are being used to buy expensive new #IPOs that is being leveraged by private equity players for smarter exits. This strategy can never make money for retail. Everyone is trying to time the listings here. Isn’t it fair for the investors also to “time the SIPs”?. Five years later, probably by 2030, most of us would realize that SIPs at these high valuations were poor investments. They are unlikely to provide the 15% to 25% returns that most are secretly plugging into their excel sheets. It has not worked anywhere outside the US market. How are you so sure? What will work is being smart about the strategy. Stop SIPs when markets are expensive & do a FD SIP. But when ,markets drop 20% or more, pull the funds into equity. This could be the only way to make more than 12% to 15% returns. It’s not for everyone but this is the only strategy. FIIs are timing. Promotors are timing. IPOs are timing. Everyone is timing the markets. Why shouldn’t you do the same?
Anurag Singh277,554 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
#Whirlpool CEO just now on India share sale: “We’ve taken down our stake to 51%. We’re positive on India long term but when our share is trading at 50 times multiple & we expect it to be much lower, then it’s an asset arbitrage”. Valuation matters. Even for promoters & #FIIs
Anurag Singh453,622 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce
Short post: Why are India investors sad: Watch this interesting debate about recent market correction. Listen to Feroz’s point of view as well: 1. Why are investors disappointed: 80% of Investors entered markets after 2020. Majority of the 6 crore SIP investors entered in 2024 at peak levels. Mid & Small cap 3 year CAGR was 28% in 2024. In 2025 that became 22%. By the end of 2026, it is likely to be a 18% returns for last 5 years. It’s a game of expectations. Investors entered thinking 20*. They are npw probably sitting at single digit returns. Why would they be happy. 2. The fault lies with over optimistic investors: If they thought they can get 28% from markets, the fault is not with the industry. Fault lies with the investors. There is no such free lunch in markets. Why should it be? Investors haven’t studied enough market history. 3. India needs balanced debate vs one sided narratives : India after 2020 has changed incrementally while markets have priced in exponential trajectory. Markets ran ahead of the fundamentals. So whenever the markets rise , a steady flow of selling comes in to balance. We can’t blame investors for selling. They are making a rational decision. It’s the buyers who need more education. And the buyers are mostly retail investors. 4. Markets may give you 10% or thereabouts eventually. Anything more is bound to get averaged out. Mid & Small caps may lose your money. It’s a very likely scenario from these levels. Yet investors keep pumping the SMIDs. Every investor generation needs to learn their lesions with mistakes. This generation is no exception. My discussion on CNBC-AWAAZ
Anurag Singh26,631 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
There are Bulls There are Ultra-Bulls & then there is Ramdev Ji “Opportunity is large - If you’re young - say 21 yrs, think about making Billions or even Trillion. You can multiply wealth by 100 Million times” Feels great listening to him. Never mind the calculations. 🙏😀
Anurag Singh168,733 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Option mania in India? David Faber asks “There’s got to be some warnings about India too….85 BN options were purchased in India in 2023. This is 8 times the volume in US & with avg hold time of 30 min, that seems like a speculative bubble to me…” Options riding on #SIPs ?
Anurag Singh366,785 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce
India #GDP: Why are markets not excited at 7.8% growth? I explain why real GDP nos are flawed and why investors should only look at nominal growth of 8.8%. English biz channels acknowledge India’s weak growth but Hindi biz channels continue to celebrate. Why such ignorance?
Anurag Singh172,060 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Trump Tariffs: Short post India can decide to tariff other countries or even restrict access in national interest. It already does that. But US has a right to do the same. Let’s not worry if these tariffs will hurt US. That’s not our worry. We all know the red lines for India. But almost everything seems like a red line. What’s not clear are the green lines. What was offered on the table as a deal? India tariffs Luxury goods at 150%. Tesla at 70% tariff. So US tariffs of 25% should be fine too. Why the fuss ? US has decided that its market will not be free for unbalanced trade access. It’s a change of policy. We need a way to balance $40 BN of trade deficit. Either buy more from #US or sell less under tariffs ! It’s fine. India can find other markets. #India can either play strong like a leading economy or play victim like a developing nation. It can’t do both. India is more than capable of absorbing this small tariff rate & move on. It’s a low cost vs the alternative of opening up the economy. Time will tell if this was the right choice. Finally, pls don’t be too touchy or get carried away in the domestic narratives only. Fact is - most politicians & bureaucrats who are trying to champion for India, also have their kids settled in USA. And this will continue in future as well. You should look for your self interest too. Let’s keep a balance of perspectives here.
Anurag Singh146,334 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce