Anurag Singh
@anuragsingh_as • 50,467 subscribers
Value Investor | Hedge Fund | Ansid Capital
Videos
Finally, an acknowledgment. Govt explains “high” #GDP “We knew there is a problem with the methodology. We couldn’t correct it in 2021 because of “COVID”. But when we corrected last year, we WARNED that the growth would look much better. Don’t complain about it later”😀 Unbelievable. Who needs a warning for high growth? May be the pliant media that runs with absolutely no understanding of the same. Business channels included. What a joke.
Anurag Singh293,525 görüntüleme • 10 gün önce
History will bear the record. I’ve been very clear since 2024 that SIPs in Indian markets will not work for anyone and investors will eventually discontinue them. All this could unfold before 2030. Investing doesn’t work when it becomes a herd game. US is an exception to this.
Anurag Singh313,183 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
Short Post: India capital outflows: Foreign investors typically see 3 near term headwinds that could inhibit growth in Indian markets- 1. AI is a white collar job killer. Eventually it will and is already killing white collar jobs in legal, medical, media, financials & tech industries. This may impact employment & consumption in an economy like India that has surplus workforce. 2. Indian household debt to GDP has spiraled very quickly from 20% of GDP pre pandemic to almost 46% of GDP now. For reference, America is at 55%. A 46%, Indian household looks over leveraged & can crack. Income has grown slower than consumption post 2020 that indicates debt based consumption. 3. Finally, the economic reforms have come to a near halt. Instead, recent actions by few regulators indicates a real risk to governance across sectors. Recent hyper activity by regulators is just an indication that govt is okay with the same. Meanwhile the trade deal with US is nowhere in sight. My discussion with CNBC-AWAAZ
Anurag Singh60,050 görüntüleme • 18 gün önce
#GST reforms: Quick take FY 26 GST budget: INR 26 lac crore Post rationalisation: INR 25.5 lac crore Govt revenue post “reforms” is almost the same as before. How can you save tax when GST collection stays the same? Read numbers. Avoid noise. Knowledge is key!
Anurag Singh473,180 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
#ScottBessent just now: #China had 13% oil imports from Russia pre 2022 & now is 16%. So Chinas has diversified oil inputs #India had 1% Russian oil pre war but now has 42%. India is just profiteering…this Indian arbitrage has sprung post war, this is Unacceptable. #CNBC
Anurag Singh445,171 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
SIP disaster awaits: Short story. Why the India #SIP investors will struggle to make money ? When everyone believes an investing story, it crowds out the asset values to the point that the assumption fails to work. SIP story was a retrospective analysis story. It has ruined the markets just the same way as any other asset bubble. See the market construct now - Who are the sellers - FIIs, Pvt Equity & even promotors. They sell by choice. Who is the buyer - Retail money driven by DIIs who are forced buyers. This construct has never made money for retail investors. It results in disasters, globally. It’s a case of Rich getting richer & you are buying it. If you think that foreign institutions and Pvt equity don’t have value judgment but retail buyers understand the “India story”, then you probably have entered in markets after 2017. My discussion with Neeraj Bajpai
Anurag Singh482,536 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce
SHORT POST: Time for contra #SIPs? Since SIP has become the new LIC. A herd behavior Quoting from the movie “Drishyam 2” “Sawaal ye nahin hai ke aapke ankhoon ke saamne kya hai. Sawaal ye hai ki aap dekh kya rahe hain ? “ #FIIs don’t matter anymore in Indian markets as they hold just 15% of market now. However, FIIs are speaking with their money. They’re selling. They see these prices as an opportunity to exit. But the focus on FIIs is a distraction. With 85% of Indian markets held by domestic money, the valuation is purely a function of how domestic investors value India. It is also a function of fund flows & your SIPs. Indian markets have capital controls. So money can’t freely invest outside. This makes the market overvalued compared to other developed peers like UK, Korea, Japan, etc where investors don’t have such restrictions. Promotor holdings have dropped from 48% to 40% in last few years. This should make investors think. While you’re buying, the owners are selling. Why ? Even the erstwhile US registered firms are now registering in India to list on #NSE. It’s not out of patriotism. It is because India is now listing the most expensively priced #IPOs. Everyone wants that. Real money is made by going against the herd. #SIPs are now a popular herd strategy. Hypothetical SIP works as nobody was doing that before. Now that everyone does that, it may not work anymore. A herd strategy doesn’t make money. Popular strategy becomes a #LIC. A generation invested there building dream castles. Nothing happened. These policies provided 5% returns when FDs were at 15% interest. SIPs are being used to buy expensive new #IPOs that is being leveraged by private equity players for smarter exits. This strategy can never make money for retail. Everyone is trying to time the listings here. Isn’t it fair for the investors also to “time the SIPs”?. Five years later, probably by 2030, most of us would realize that SIPs at these high valuations were poor investments. They are unlikely to provide the 15% to 25% returns that most are secretly plugging into their excel sheets. It has not worked anywhere outside the US market. How are you so sure? What will work is being smart about the strategy. Stop SIPs when markets are expensive & do a FD SIP. But when ,markets drop 20% or more, pull the funds into equity. This could be the only way to make more than 12% to 15% returns. It’s not for everyone but this is the only strategy. FIIs are timing. Promotors are timing. IPOs are timing. Everyone is timing the markets. Why shouldn’t you do the same?
Anurag Singh277,554 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
#Whirlpool CEO just now on India share sale: “We’ve taken down our stake to 51%. We’re positive on India long term but when our share is trading at 50 times multiple & we expect it to be much lower, then it’s an asset arbitrage”. Valuation matters. Even for promoters & #FIIs
Anurag Singh453,300 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce
There are Bulls There are Ultra-Bulls & then there is Ramdev Ji “Opportunity is large - If you’re young - say 21 yrs, think about making Billions or even Trillion. You can multiply wealth by 100 Million times” Feels great listening to him. Never mind the calculations. 🙏😀
Anurag Singh168,733 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce
India #GDP: Why are markets not excited at 7.8% growth? I explain why real GDP nos are flawed and why investors should only look at nominal growth of 8.8%. English biz channels acknowledge India’s weak growth but Hindi biz channels continue to celebrate. Why such ignorance?
Anurag Singh172,060 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Option mania in India? David Faber asks “There’s got to be some warnings about India too….85 BN options were purchased in India in 2023. This is 8 times the volume in US & with avg hold time of 30 min, that seems like a speculative bubble to me…” Options riding on #SIPs ?
Anurag Singh366,785 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce
Trump Tariffs: Short post India can decide to tariff other countries or even restrict access in national interest. It already does that. But US has a right to do the same. Let’s not worry if these tariffs will hurt US. That’s not our worry. We all know the red lines for India. But almost everything seems like a red line. What’s not clear are the green lines. What was offered on the table as a deal? India tariffs Luxury goods at 150%. Tesla at 70% tariff. So US tariffs of 25% should be fine too. Why the fuss ? US has decided that its market will not be free for unbalanced trade access. It’s a change of policy. We need a way to balance $40 BN of trade deficit. Either buy more from #US or sell less under tariffs ! It’s fine. India can find other markets. #India can either play strong like a leading economy or play victim like a developing nation. It can’t do both. India is more than capable of absorbing this small tariff rate & move on. It’s a low cost vs the alternative of opening up the economy. Time will tell if this was the right choice. Finally, pls don’t be too touchy or get carried away in the domestic narratives only. Fact is - most politicians & bureaucrats who are trying to champion for India, also have their kids settled in USA. And this will continue in future as well. You should look for your self interest too. Let’s keep a balance of perspectives here.
Anurag Singh146,334 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
India Markets - 2025: Short post For those who say I’m always bearish: There are no bad stocks, there are only bad prices. Same with markets. Despite ever bullish sentiments, last 4 year returns since Oct 2021 are Nifty 50 - 8% Nifty 500 - 10% Returns reflect nominal GDP when PE reaches peak levels of 25 plus. That is exactly how it has turned out since 2021 #SIP investors should hope for a deep correction in markets. Coz that’s great for their long term returns. There is no point cheering for markets everyday at these prices. It only helps those who are selling now. Regardless of permanent bulls, that’s exactly how it has turned out to be. Only nominal GDP growth. 8% to 10%. Finally, More than half of all historical returns from Nifty is pure inflation. The 12% historic returns has 6.5% from inflation only. Real returns - 5.5%. These are good times for the economy . But not good prices for markets. Stay balanced, stay cautious. When markets correct big, back up the truck and buy. This is not the time. My thoughts CNBC-AWAAZ
Anurag Singh107,428 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Short Post: #SEBI report on trading losses in India Why is everyone trying to educate traders when 10% of them still make money? Consider this: 14 lac apply for Civil services exam in India for 800 seats, success rate of 0.05%. We see lacs of students wasting precious years in their 20s doing nothing but - prepare for #IAS . Why does the Nation celebrate such youth who’re chasing govt. jobs. Success rate for such jobs is 0.5% at best. What a waste of productive years. Who educates them? However, when it comes to the youth who is trading in F&O in stocks, the success rate is 10%. This is a good enough probability. If the trader can learn better skills, the success could improve to 30% plus. Why does the nation look at them with contempt ? In a nation with limited avenues, these young ones are chasing every opportunity they get. And unlike others, this one doesn’t need degrees. Who’s the bigger gambler here? Who needs more regulation - those “aspiring” for Sarkari jobs OR the self-employed youth who trades on the side with their savings? Let’s try to look at the market traders with some respect. They just need a fair playing field. They don’t need throttling regulation which usually kills the small guy. Many interpret #SEBI report to indicate that these traders are ignorant and they need “education”. The truth may be entirely the opposite. A trader is fine losing 1 lac annually as it still allows him to dream of a bigger pay day when stars collude in his favour. On the other hand, Rs 1 lac when invested grows too slow for his dreams. He knows the trade-offs. Let’s stop assuming that these traders are ignorant. Finally, the action on #JaneStreetGroup was easy to predict. Most will clap this as a masterstroke. But the problem in India is a shallow, one sided cash market driven by flows & the most frothy F&O market globally, largely due to poor design. You still can’t effectively short sell in India while the stocks rise to astronomical levels. Jane street could have lost big time had there been enough cash buyers or the options market was better designed. Or if short selling was permitted with full efficiency. The solution was to encourage many such bigger foreign players to create a balance and depth of trades on both sides. Also let the domestic funds play with more freedom. But that’s a solution for free markets. In a market where good regulation means more regulation, a further tightening is the only expected outcome. And that’s what we got. The value of traders in Bank Nifty options to cash market was 400:1. This is too much skew that needed regulatory design fix, within the free market principles. SEBI has done the opposite – ban the foreign player. The market now is less free & more skewed. All the basic flaws still persist. The bigger fish will still have the larger profit pool in trading , just they will all be the domestic players now. That’s not a surprise. The small trader will still be on the losing side. And more will jump in to “educate” them about the virtues of long term investing. In a long only market with an ever shrinking pool of sellers, what could go wrong? #Nifty #Nifty50 #BankNifty #India
Anurag Singh66,716 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
#FII selling in India markets: Arz kiya hai - Humein toh apno ne loota, gairon mein kahan dum tha humari kashti wahan doobi, paani jahan kam tha. - Firaq #DIIs & retail have bought $70 Bn worth of shares in 2025. FIIs sold just $17 Bn. Who sold the rest $53 Bn ? It’s all domestic selling by promoters & fresh #IPOs. But we all like to pin it on “foreign investors”. It’s a distraction. Blind purchase can never be a wise idea. Unfortunately, Investors have been sold an idea to keep buying regardless of the price. It is a sellers paradise now. And sellers continue to get brazen every year. After all, stocks don’t rise up to the moon. Markets are not a buy always. Sensible action at times is to sell ! What side of the trade are you on ?
Anurag Singh51,615 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce
#SIP investors face some challenges 1. Majority flows are to Mid & Small caps. This is classic bull market trap of chasing past returns. 2. Investors think that fund will manage risk. Fact is - All risk lies with investors 3. How many 25 yr SIPs exist today? Appx. Zero
Anurag Singh74,791 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
I’ve pinned tweet since Aug 2024 that #India markets are way too expensive to invest. Time for the Ultra Bulls to answer now. Markets are unlikely to rise in a hurry for 2026. Not a great time for amateurs. Stay invested with good Mutual Funds. Reset your expectations.
Anurag Singh33,896 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce