apsk32
@apsk32 • 39,385 subscribers
Engineer. Bitcoin, data viz., space, art
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Bitcoin's last three cycle peaks all happened in November or December and were spaced four years apart. Previous cycle highs: 10 Nov 2021: $69,000 17 Dec 2017: $19,891 29 Nov 2013: $1,242 If that pattern continues, then we would expect this cycle to peak in November-December of 2025. Bitcoin has also followed a power curve for nearly 15 years. The power curve (law) forms a nice support line that I consider the intrinsic value of the network. Each cycle, Bitcoin explodes above the support trendline and then returns to it during the cycle bear. The percentage amount that the price rises above the support line gets smaller each cycle. Last cycle, in Spring 2021, the bull market started early, but we ended up with a double top that put us back on the 4-year timing. We have never been as early as we are right now. This time could be different. We have the ETFs, a favorable political environment, and Saylor (MSTR) borrowing every loose dollar on the bond market to buy more bitcoin. But, this time doesn't have to be different. We could pause or correct for months while still aligning with previous cycles. Be careful with all the new option products available to you this cycle. You could be right about your MSTR or IBIT price target and still lose all your money by misjudging the timing. I'm just holding bitcoin in cold storage. It's not as sexy as some of the other strategies, but at least I know I'll still have my coins deep into the future. That is most important to me.
apsk32880,955 次观看 • 1 年前
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Bitcoin's last three cycles all peaked in November or December, spaced four years apart. Previous cycle highs: 10 Nov 2021: $68,997 17 Dec 2017: $19,804 29 Nov 2013: $1,242 If that pattern continues, this cycle would peak in November or December of 2025. Bitcoin has also followed a power curve for 15 years. The power curve forms a nice support line that I consider the intrinsic value of the network. My favorite way to measure current price relative to the support is the "years ahead" metric. This metric tells you how long it could be, in the worst case, before the support "forces" prices higher than they are today. Many on CT have declared that this cycle is different. I heard the same when I posted this last summer. Back then, everyone was sure that the ETFs and MSTR would end the cycle pattern and invalidate the power curve trendline. What ended up happening was that Bitcoin underperformed expectations over the following year and now price is back to the mean of the cycle pattern. The mood has shifted over this last year. Now, people seem to believe we couldn't possibly move from $100,000 to $200,000+ by the end of the year. I still believe that we will. If we zoom out though, this cycle doesn't matter. My coins have been in cold storage for years and they'll still be there ten years from now. You don't need to trade, you don't need leverage, you don't need to pick the next btc treasury company, and you don't need to learn about options. You can build generational wealth by simply saving in bitcoin. Follow apsk32
apsk32123,737 次观看 • 1 年前
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Bitcoin's last three cycles all peaked in November or December and were spaced four years apart. Previous cycle highs: 10 Nov 2021: $69,000 17 Dec 2017: $19,891 29 Nov 2013: $1,242 If that pattern continues, then we would expect this cycle to peak in November or December of 2025. Bitcoin has also followed a power curve for nearly 15 years. The power curve (law) forms a nice support line that I consider the intrinsic value of the network—the value when all hope and hype are gone. My favorite way to measure current price relative to the support is the "years ahead" metric. This metric tells you how long it could be, in the worst case, before the support "forces" prices higher than they are today. Each cycle, Bitcoin rises above the support trendline and then returns to it during the cycle bear. Last cycle, in Spring 2021, the bull market started early, but we ended up with a double top that put us back on the four-year timing. This time could be different, but Bitcoin's price action this cycle has been fairly normal. I think most of the pessimism of late is because the ETFs pumped Bitcoin early and people expected it to continue. I prefer to hold my coins in cold storage. They're safe there, regardless of whether or not the cycle patterns continue. Godspeed, holders. Follow @apsk32
apsk32124,667 次观看 • 1 年前
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