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Itamar Avni / Chief Hasbara Officer

@AvniItamar8,115 subscribers

I pursued my enemies and overtook them; I did not turn back till they were destroyed (Psalms 18)

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1am, 2am, 3am, 4am... that was a rough night. Iran can't kill the Jews so it's killing their sleep. But let me tell you: running to shelter even 10 times a night won't break the people who came out of Egypt. Am Israel Chai (but sleepless).

1am, 2am, 3am, 4am... that was a rough night. Iran can't kill the Jews so it's killing their sleep. But let me tell you: running to shelter even 10 times a night won't break the people who came out of Egypt. Am Israel Chai (but sleepless).

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Furkan Gözükara Disruption is all Iran can do, force Israelis to stop for 10 minutes and find shelter, like normal people do when you target them with ballistic missiles . And that's all. At in the meantime, this is Isfahan. Just look at the secondary explosions - isn't is something, Furkan?

Furkan Gözükara Disruption is all Iran can do, force Israelis to stop for 10 minutes and find shelter, like normal people do when you target them with ballistic missiles . And that's all. At in the meantime, this is Isfahan. Just look at the secondary explosions - isn't is something, Furkan?

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🔺 Rising Lion’s 2nd week 🔺 Iran goes for civilians 🔺 1 drone out of 1000 🔺 Khamenei threatens 🔺 Special guest: Israel’s next move 🔺 Middle East Report / Saturday, June 21 🔺 It’s been one week since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion with the goal of dismantling Iran’s nuclear project and ballistic missile infrastructure. 2 nights ago, for the first and only time in a week, I slept through the night—thanks to the extraordinary efforts of Israeli Air Force pilots and the intelligence apparatus operating above Iran. Between Thursday and Friday only one missile was fired, landing in a parking lot in Be’er Sheva. Three additional launchers were neutralized before they could be used. The number of Iranian launches is dwindling—not because Iran has abandoned its thirst for revenge, but because it's running out of means. 🔺 Thursday night once again proved the strategic importance of a preemptive strike. As we saw on October 7, surprise disorients the enemy, paralyzes decision-making, and grants the attacker invaluable momentum. Hamas enjoyed its surprise for about 24 hours—but still shows no regret. Israel, however, continues to crush Iranian military infrastructure from 1,500 kilometers away. But let’s be clear: Iran has not surrendered. It has merely shifted tactics, operating now more like a terror group—firing the minimum number of missiles to remain in the game while stalling for time and hoping someone else saves the regime from collapse. 🔺 The Middle East Report was created to provide a concise summary of regional developments based on a wide array of sources plus my own insights. But it’s always valuable to hear alternative perspectives. That’s why I invited British military analyst Andrew Fox to weigh in on three questions I had. I'm grateful he agreed—keep reading for his eye-opening take. 🔺 America Ramps Up in the Middle East The U.S. continues to bolster its regional posture—first deploying dozens of aerial refueling aircraft and 2 aircraft carriers (USS Nimitz and USS Ford), then fighter squadrons, and now even fearsome B-2 bombers capable of carrying the massive MOP bunker-buster, designed to penetrate deep into hardened facilities like Iran’s Fordow enrichment site. Meanwhile, the UK is still weighing its options, but the HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier was spotted passing through the Suez Canal eastward. France, predictably, would prefer Israel to stop fighting—hoping to avoid unrest among its own Muslim population. Nothing new. Will the U.S. join the fight? I have no idea. American politics isn’t my field. But the level of coordination, the tone in which the administration talks, and the unwavering support for Israel suggest Washington is aiming to bring Iran to its knees—either through psychological warfare, acting the “bad cop”, or direct force. 🔺 The Numbers Tell the Story So far, Iran has fired ~520 missiles at Israel. About 90% were intercepted by Israel’s missile defense systems. Another 5% landed harmlessly in open areas. Only ~25 missiles (mere 5%) hit their targets—tragically causing civilian casualties and huge damage. Only 25. On average, it takes over 20 missiles to kill one Israeli. Even Hamas is more effective. Iran also launched over 1,000 UAVs at Israeli territory; only one of them hit (on an empty house in Beit She’an, just hours ago). What a staggering waste of resources. To date, 24 civilians have been killed by Iranian attacks, including four Arab family members in Tamra, five Ukrainian family members who came to Israel for medical care, two elderly spouses killed when a missile directly struck their protected room. No soldiers. No army bases. No aircraft, ship, or command post. Only civilians. Thanks to Israel’s home-front readiness—reinforced rooms, shelters, clear civil defense instructions, and a disciplined public—the death toll is far lower than it could have been. Israel is the only country in the world where every new building must include a fortified room. Meanwhile, in Gaza, Hamas hides in tunnels while civilians have no protection at all. Iranian rockets struck residential towers, destroyed years of research at the Weizmann Institute, and damaged hospital wings at Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva. Today they managed to hit a mosque in Haifa and a Christian home for children with disabilities, and caused havoc in a Bedouin (Muslim) town in the south. Iran is no longer fighting for military victory—it is aiming only to terrorize and destroy, but after 77 years of existential threats, Israel is not so easily rattled. 🔺 Striking Iran’s Regime In response to continued attacks on Israeli civilian infrastructure, Israel has escalated strikes against key regime symbols in Iran—targeting police headquarters, Revolutionary Guard bases, and internal security networks. These forces are central to suppressing domestic dissent, and weakening them aims to destabilize the regime's grip on power. In response, Tehran has cut off internet access entirely to prevent images of unrest from spreading and to paralyze opposition groups. Opposition forces are slowly joining in. For example, the Shah’s Air Force Pilots’ Union, a pre-revolutionary group, issued a call to the Iranian military to abandon the regime and side with the people. Meanwhile, an Israeli cyber group successfully targeted Iran’s cryptocurrency exchange NOBITEX, a key mechanism used by the regime to circumvent sanctions. Foreign reports indicate the exchange’s holdings dropped from $1.8 billion to just $100 million. Oops. 🔺 What About Hezbollah? Iran’s most prominent proxy, Hezbollah, has mostly stuck to empty threats. While it still possesses advanced launch capabilities and tens of thousands of fighters, the group is weak, isolated, and lacks popular and governmental support. Lebanese Christian political leader Samir Geagea, publicly rebuked Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem, saying: "You are not entitled to act unilaterally. If you have proposals, bring them to the government. This isn’t a country where everyone acts on their own." Israel’s defense minister fired back: “The Hezbollah Secretary General continues to act on Tehran’s orders. He should understand—Israel has lost patience with terrorists. If terrorism persists—Hezbollah will cease to exist.” If Hezbollah truly believed Iran would prevail, they’d already be in the fight. But who bets on the losing side? Better to short Iran and profit. 🔺 Iran’s Leaders Speak—From the Shadows On Wednesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader, speaking from hiding, declared: "Our nation will not forget its martyrs’ blood and will not sit idly by as our airspace is violated. The Zionist entity has made a grave mistake—and it will suffer the consequences. The Americans must understand: Iran cannot be subdued. Any military interference will bring irreversible damage." Then on Friday morning, after that single missile hit the parking lot in Be’er Sheva, the Supreme Leader posted a defiant tweet: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi maintained a diplomatic front: “The U.S. approached us for negotiations—we refused. We will not negotiate while aggression continues (rings a bell? It's the same tactic used by Hamas, which Israel politely ignores). We will not discuss our missile program with anyone.” This reminds me of Exodus 7:3 - "And I will harden Pharaoh's heart, and multiply my signs and my wonders in the land of Egypt." Every dog has his day. 🔺 Iran’s Image Crisis Iran’s greatest fear is losing face. The regime cannot admit weakness—it fears the domino effect this might trigger among its proxies and adversaries across the region. But when ego overrides strategy, bad decisions follow. That’s why I turned to Andrew Fox Andrew Fox, a respected British military thinker, to provide an outside perspective. Andrew is a former British airborne officer, a Middle East expert, and a fellow at the Henry Jackson Society (Henry Jackson Society). Since the beginning of the war, Andrew has stood with Israel, not because he’s Jewish or Israeli (he’s not) but because he hates injustice, and he recognizes how the Palestinian psychological warfare is waged against Israel and even against Jews all over the world. He’s been to Israel countless times and has seen things first handedly here and in Gaza. I’m grateful he agreed to share his thoughts. Q1: In hindsight, what could Israel have done better in the first week of the war? A: Militarily, Israel’s opening strikes were highly effective. Tactically, it could not have gone much better. My one concern is that Israel might have started a job it does not have the capability to finish - destroying the entirety of the nuclear programme is a huge challenge. Everyone fixates on Fordow but there are other underground facilities that will be challenging to strike from the air without American involvement. Shaldag (an IAF commando unit, specializing in intelligence gathering and striking deep inside the enemy's territory - IA) may be able to destroy Fordow with a raid, but other sites present a similar challenge. Q2: If Iran tries to wait Israel out like Hamas did, what’s Israel’s wild card? A: Israel needs to shift from attrition to strategic paralysis. Cyber warfare could cripple Iran’s command systems and public infrastructure without more civilian deaths. Covertly supporting restive minorities could stretch the regime internally. And a second wave of targeted strikes against political and clerical elites might fracture Tehran’s inner circle. Paired with a serious diplomatic off-ramp, that’s how Israel forces real concessions. Q3: Could Iran use chemical weapons as a last resort? A: It’s unlikely but not impossible. Iran has the knowledge and possibly the stockpiles, though it denies both. Using chemical warheads would be suicidal: it would provoke massive Israeli (and potentially US) retaliation, destroy Iran’s diplomatic support, and risk internal backlash. The only scenario where they might consider it is if the regime believes it’s days from collapse. Until then, it’s more of a deterrent than a realistic option. Follow Andrew on - highly recommended. 🔺 As we enter the second week of the war with Iran, let’s remember: just two weeks ago, Greta Thunberg was dominating headlines from the Middle East. An entire report without once mentioning Gaza? Things are hectic and we have tough days ahead of us. Pray for the safety of Israeli soldiers and civilians. And always remember—the eternal people are not afraid of a long journey. For those who might have forgotten, see the amazing video (who made it? Please share!). Speakers on. Shabbat Shalom 🙏🌸🇮🇱💪 ************************************* Reached the bottom of the Middle East Report? Don’t forget to follow the Chief Hasbara Officer 😘 Please share, like, follow and help others get the news... see you all in the next report. ************************************* #Syria #Houthis #Yemen #Lebanon #Israel #Hamas #Hezbollah #Iran #Gaza #BringThemHome #TimeToSurrender

Itamar Avni / Chief Hasbara Officer

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