Benjamin Freeman
@benwfreeman1 • 4,710 subscribers
Politics Growth @Kalshi, Election prediction guy since 2019
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I went to both Jasmine Crockett’s and James Talarico’s final election Eve rallies. These events could not have been more different. My experiences at both made me convinced of who was going to win tomorrow. Crockett’s event was a “Community Conversation with Congresswomen Crockett, Pressley & Grijalva” at New Faith Church. About ~100 people attended. Talarico’s event was a “Take Back Texas Tour: Rally in Houston.” About ~1,000 people attended. Crockett’s event started nearly an hour later. The pews were half full, and the energy just wasn’t there. I don’t think Crockett’s event was designed to be energetic, but it just wasn’t inspiring. The speakers and the crowd were older, and at one point, one older speaker said “Tomorrow, use Google and Social Media to get your friends to go out and vote.” What does that even mean? Some members of the media left before the event was even over. Crockett’s message was constantly negative against Republicans. There was a lot of focus on identity, too. On how it was really cool that most of the people on stage were congressWOMEN. I would say that crowd of ~100 was 90% black and skewed older On the other hand, Talarico’s event was packed. He had several speakers speak before him to rally up the crowd. The energy was there. When Talarico came on stage, everyone went crazy. Talarico gave his classic stump speak that he’s given at other rallies, but you could tell he was hitting his stride. Talarico’s crowd was more diverse and included a mix and white and Latino people (probably 45% each). I would guess the rest was 5% black and 5% Asian. Talarico didn’t lean into identity, but his message was one of love, and his biggest applause lines were that he was going to win. After the rally concluded, they announced that Talarico would meet anyone and take pictures with anyone that wanted to. The line went out the door. I was in the first half and was able to meet him, but it probably took hours to get through everyone. My conclusion: the late momentum is 100% with Talarico. His campaign is a well oiled machine. There were volunteers with yellow vests everywhere, and they were very aware that the Kalshi odds had them having a last minute surge. My on the ground experience explains why Talarico has jumped 18% from 67% to 85% in the last 24 hours on the Kalshi odds. Momentum means everything in a primary, and let me tell you, James Talarico HAS THE JUICE. I think he wins by double digits
Benjamin Freeman764,330 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Boston 25 News This video is not a good look for Diggs. At all.
Benjamin Freeman238,884 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce
The prediction market goat, Domer, explains his life before PMs: “From college, I had a normal job” “I was making more playing poker at night than my normal job, so I quit my job.” “If you know math and you take a little bit of risk, you are going to beat the game.”
Benjamin Freeman126,437 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce
Debunking Coffeezilla’s prediction market claims In his recent video “prediction markets aren’t just gambling,” Coffeezilla made the three untrue or misleading claims below: 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” I want to start by saying that I’ve really enjoyed Coffeezilla’s content in the past, and I appreciate him blacking out my name in the tweet he screenshared. I also watched the full video and agreed with parts of it (and disagreed with other parts). That said, these three claims are egregiously incorrect, and I want to correct the record. I hope Coffeezilla reads this and reconsiders these points 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” Merriam-Webster defines insider trading as “the illegal use of information available only to insiders in order to make a profit in financial trading.” This claim is wrong because it is clearly possible to get information early in entirely legal ways. For example, in CPI inflation markets, someone might notice prices rising on goods they regularly buy, or a sophisticated trader might aggregate pricing data across many products and form a forecast before the CPI release. Journalists may later report on inflation, but the information existed beforehand. Markets also react faster to sudden events, like a Trump Truth Social post or an earthquake, than journalists do. Traders are financially incentivized to react in seconds; journalists are not. Recent high-profile examples include Nobel Peace Prize, Spotify, and Time POTY markets, where traders had information before the news broke. In the Nobel case, there was disinformation claiming insider trading, but as far as most observers can tell, the information was obtained legally via web-scraping. Even if the Nobel Committee disliked it, legally obtained information is fair game. 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” This is easy to debunk. Prediction markets do aggregate information, but not merely sentiment or headlines. That’s likely why CNN and CNBC partnered with Kalshi. News is filtered through editors, incentives, and bias. Taking headlines at face value is not a winning trading strategy. Savvy traders treat news as one input among many variables. If a headline says “Poll X shows Clinton up 10 points,” markets may adjust, but they don’t blindly price the headline. They factor in other variables. I’d argue markets are often smarter than the news. Domer❤️🔥 has even argued that Fed markets on Kalshi are more accurate than CME due to traders like himself making them more efficient, and I think he’s right. 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” Merriam-Webster defines insider information as “information not known to the public that one has obtained by virtue of being an insider.” You can obtain non-news information without being an insider. This overlaps with point one, but here’s a concrete example. For the recent TN-07 special election, I traveled to TN-07 and spoke with voters leaving early-voting sites and with everyday residents. I learned how little awareness there was that a special election was even happening, and how voters were thinking about the race. That information wasn’t in the news, but it informed how I traded. I’m not an insider. This was “alpha hunting” through firsthand observation. Almost every serious prediction market trader has similar stories. This is certainly not "insider trading." I’m genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, Coffeezilla, and hope for a good-faith dialogue. I hope you are doing well!
Benjamin Freeman80,021 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce
Anderson Cooper: Did you bet on the Papal Conclave? Domer: Yeah, I made $100,000
Benjamin Freeman62,646 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce
“You can bet on anything. You’ve seen these sites like Kalshi.” SNL made a pretty hilarious fictional skit about mention markets on Kalshi (Reminder: This skit would never occur in real life because insider trading / manipulation is strictly forbidden on Kalshi)
Benjamin Freeman19,851 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
This morning, Trump dropped the odds of him picking a Fed Chair in January from 18% -> 1% when he said he would pick him “next week” Then tonight, Trump said he would pick the Fed Chair “tomorrow morning” pumping the odds from 1%->90% instantly Some traders made a 90x return
Benjamin Freeman23,071 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
Daha fazla içerik yok.