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Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch • 718,541 subscribers

Macro investment research at https://t.co/hQqAza8GGP Our total return index is at https://t.co/vta9eqevnU The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth

Shorts

Interesting video from Kpler via the CNBC story below. It shows the shipping activity in the Persian Gulf today. After it was announced that the Strait was open, dozens of ships turned on their AIS (GPS) and sailed to the Strait. Then they abruptly stopped, U-turned, and turned off their AIS. In the end, the traffic that went through was no different than any other day of the war. Shippers are still thinking it is closed. Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ John Ʌ Konrad V

Interesting video from Kpler via the CNBC story below. It shows the shipping activity in the Persian Gulf today. After it was announced that the Strait was open, dozens of ships turned on their AIS (GPS) and sailed to the Strait. Then they abruptly stopped, U-turned, and turned off their AIS. In the end, the traffic that went through was no different than any other day of the war. Shippers are still thinking it is closed. Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ John Ʌ Konrad V

126,683 views

This really is a good explanation of banking.

This really is a good explanation of banking.

885,162 views

Videos

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My reaction on Bloomberg TV is below. Two takeaways. 9 - 3 vote. Dissents are the new forward guidance. I think when we get to the end of the Warsh term as Fed Chairman, we're going to see a vast majority of the meetings were 11-1 or 12-0 votes. But when they are moving to change policy, dissents are the forward guidance that tells you the Fed is about to go a different direction. What Changed? Bob Michael of JP Morgan asked what changed. He asked why the Fed would hike rates because the data didn't really move that much from June, when we had a 12-0 vote. Correct. I would argue what changed is the way that the Fed now operates. It's no longer the chairman dictating and everybody doing what he tells them. They are now independent, and this hawkishness was always there; this desire to raise rates was always there. It was just not allowed to be expressed or acted on. Now it is. That's what's changed.

My reaction on Bloomberg TV is below. Two takeaways. 9 - 3 vote. Dissents are the new forward guidance. I think when we get to the end of the Warsh term as Fed Chairman, we're going to see a vast majority of the meetings were 11-1 or 12-0 votes. But when they are moving to change policy, dissents are the forward guidance that tells you the Fed is about to go a different direction. What Changed? Bob Michael of JP Morgan asked what changed. He asked why the Fed would hike rates because the data didn't really move that much from June, when we had a 12-0 vote. Correct. I would argue what changed is the way that the Fed now operates. It's no longer the chairman dictating and everybody doing what he tells them. They are now independent, and this hawkishness was always there; this desire to raise rates was always there. It was just not allowed to be expressed or acted on. Now it is. That's what's changed.

107,532 views • 2 days ago

It's here: my new podcast, Rational Dissent Episode 001, "Why Do Investors Expect So Much?" Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, etc. --- Investors have become accustomed to stocks returning double digits year after year. Is that the new normal? What should investors expect? Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction to Rational Dissent 00:32 - Welcome & Market Returns Overview 02:22 - CapEx vs. Cash Flow: The 3-in-1 Tech Supercycle 06:43 - S&P Concentration: A Two-Asset Class Market 09:16 - Valuation Breakdown: The Shiller CAPE Ratio 11:38 - Explaining the 4-5-6 Market Model 17:51 - Retail Sentiment, Bubble Behavior & Software Spending 26:09 - TIPS & Long-Term Real Return Opportunities 28:13 - Lightning Round: AI's Long-Run Sector Comparable 32:42 - Closing Remarks

It's here: my new podcast, Rational Dissent Episode 001, "Why Do Investors Expect So Much?" Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, etc. --- Investors have become accustomed to stocks returning double digits year after year. Is that the new normal? What should investors expect? Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction to Rational Dissent 00:32 - Welcome & Market Returns Overview 02:22 - CapEx vs. Cash Flow: The 3-in-1 Tech Supercycle 06:43 - S&P Concentration: A Two-Asset Class Market 09:16 - Valuation Breakdown: The Shiller CAPE Ratio 11:38 - Explaining the 4-5-6 Market Model 17:51 - Retail Sentiment, Bubble Behavior & Software Spending 26:09 - TIPS & Long-Term Real Return Opportunities 28:13 - Lightning Round: AI's Long-Run Sector Comparable 32:42 - Closing Remarks

106,296 views • 7 days ago

Is the stock market now two asset classes? From our new podcast (See the repost below).

Is the stock market now two asset classes? From our new podcast (See the repost below).

50,075 views • 6 days ago

A reminder ... This is what Strait of Hormuz traffic looked like the day before the war started (February 27). Now compare it to the repost below. Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ John Ʌ Konrad V

A reminder ... This is what Strait of Hormuz traffic looked like the day before the war started (February 27). Now compare it to the repost below. Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ John Ʌ Konrad V

195,086 views • 3 months ago

Should the Fed hike? I say yes. This AM on Bloomberg TV

Should the Fed hike? I say yes. This AM on Bloomberg TV

51,519 views • 1 month ago

Me talking about the bond market today.

Me talking about the bond market today.

189,120 views • 1 year ago

1/8 Yesterday, Jim appeared on Bloomberg TV, warning that if the Fed cuts rates and the market thinks this is wrong, 10-year yields could surge through 5%. (Perspective ... 10-year yields were last above 5% in October 2023 and as high as 4.85% in January). 🧵

1/8 Yesterday, Jim appeared on Bloomberg TV, warning that if the Fed cuts rates and the market thinks this is wrong, 10-year yields could surge through 5%. (Perspective ... 10-year yields were last above 5% in October 2023 and as high as 4.85% in January). 🧵

130,709 views • 1 year ago

Me talking about the economy this morning on Bloomberg Radio "I am in the three-ish percent camp for inflation. And why is that important? Because that would put the Fed Funds Neutral Rate somewhere around four and they're at 3.75 right now. So I'd argue that they're probably a slightly easy where they think that they're actually still restrictive." tom keene

Me talking about the economy this morning on Bloomberg Radio "I am in the three-ish percent camp for inflation. And why is that important? Because that would put the Fed Funds Neutral Rate somewhere around four and they're at 3.75 right now. So I'd argue that they're probably a slightly easy where they think that they're actually still restrictive." tom keene

59,236 views • 8 months ago

Me on Bloomberg TV this morning

Me on Bloomberg TV this morning

28,596 views • 3 months ago

My take on why bond yields are soaring around the world, and what it means for US bond yields

My take on why bond yields are soaring around the world, and what it means for US bond yields

77,275 views • 1 year ago

I agree with Ray Dalio , and said similar things today ...

I agree with Ray Dalio , and said similar things today ...

55,663 views • 1 year ago

Me on Bloomberg TV this AM talking about Yields and Powell's Successor. All our videos are here Jonathan Ferro Lisa Abramowicz annmarie hordern

Me on Bloomberg TV this AM talking about Yields and Powell's Successor. All our videos are here Jonathan Ferro Lisa Abramowicz annmarie hordern

60,071 views • 1 year ago

Me on Bloomberg TV talking about Venezuela, the bond market and the Fed

Me on Bloomberg TV talking about Venezuela, the bond market and the Fed

33,576 views • 6 months ago

Good explanation of the Mar-A-Lago accord by Liz Capo McCormick on Bloomberg TV

Good explanation of the Mar-A-Lago accord by Liz Capo McCormick on Bloomberg TV

58,684 views • 1 year ago

Me on the Schwab Network to discuss tariffs, the Fed, and current investment themes.

Me on the Schwab Network to discuss tariffs, the Fed, and current investment themes.

41,881 views • 1 year ago

Me on Bloomberg TV talking about markets. Romaine Bostick Alix Steel

Me on Bloomberg TV talking about markets. Romaine Bostick Alix Steel

37,098 views • 1 year ago

Talking about the biggest surprises in 2025 with Daniel Lacalle All our videos are here (they will change your life!)

Talking about the biggest surprises in 2025 with Daniel Lacalle All our videos are here (they will change your life!)

41,151 views • 1 year ago

Me on CNBC's Fast Money discussing the bond market into 2025.

Me on CNBC's Fast Money discussing the bond market into 2025.

39,714 views • 1 year ago