Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch • 790,491 subscribers
Macro investment research at https://t.co/hQqAza8GGP Our total return index is at https://t.co/vta9eqevnU The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth
Shorts
Videos
What Being in the Market Means Rational Dissent Episode 015 This week's episode unpacks what it really means to be "in the market"—breaking down active versus passive investing in stocks and bonds and explaining why overly optimistic return expectations can lead to a painful reality check. ---- Available on YT, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Overcast, etc. Chapters 00:00 - Time in the Market vs. Timing the Market 03:02 - Active vs. Passive Equities (SPIVA Data) 07:07 - Why Active Works in Fixed Income 13:30 - Commodities, Roll Yield & New Asset Classes 15:57 - Return Expectations: Retail vs. Institutions 22:24 - High Expectations, Risk Tolerances & Time Horizons 27:10 - What Will Reset Investor Sentiment? 32:44 - Conclusion
Jim Bianco34,371 просмотров • 8 дней назад
Inflation is Still the Problem Rational Dissent Episode 014 Post-COVID structural shifts like deglobalization and tariffs have permanently eliminated the cheap goods deflation that previously offset services inflation, leaving the U.S. settled in a 3% inflation world where a 5% nominal growth rate justifies matching 5% interest rates. ---- Available on YT, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Overcast, etc. Chapters 00:00 Introduction: Inflation Reality vs. Consensus 02:22 Nominal GDP Framework and 5% Yields 06:36 Core PCE, China, and the End of Goods Deflation 11:15 Protectionism, Tariffs, and the BYD Example 15:02 Why We Are Stuck in a 3% Inflation World 23:38 Rising Inflation Volatility and Remote Work 28:13 Monetary Policy: Why the Fed Must Focus on Nominal GDP 32:37 Closing Remarks
Jim Bianco41,514 просмотров • 15 дней назад
Bubble Talk: Tulips to Tech Rational Dissent Episode 013 Despite bubbly valuations, persistent market skepticism suggests the AI boom is expanding like 1996—not collapsing like 2000. -- Available on YT, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Overcast, etc. Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & Sponsor 02:13 - Defining Bubbles: Tulips, Dot-Com & 2008 06:37 - Bubble Expansion vs. Market Peak 09:34 - S&P 500 Valuations & AI Concentration 17:20 - Why Equities Require "Hopes and Dreams" 21:52 - Are We Closer to 1996 or 2000? 26:27 - AI Monetization: Frontier Models vs. Applications 32:10 - The Real Risk: Overcapacity & Technological Disruption 36:27 - Conclusion & Outro
Jim Bianco46,925 просмотров • 22 дней назад
Rational Dissent Episode 010. Will the Bond Market End Humanity? With the 10-year Treasury yield hitting a 16-year high of 5.20%, is this a return to historical normal—or the start of a market break? Available on YT, Apple, Spotify, Overcast, etc. --- Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & Market Overview 03:01 - Analyzing the Week's Bond Market Frenzy 07:09 - Shifts in FOMC Rate Expectations 08:27 - Economic Growth and Potential GDP 13:30 - Historical Context: 5,000 Years of Interest Rates 17:04 - Economic Resilience vs. Market Fears 18:38 - Drivers of Yields: Growth, Energy, Policy, and Deficits 23:03 - The Fed's Dilemma Heading into October 26:14 - Bond Math and Are Yields Near a Peak? 29:56 - Closing Question: Does the Fed Lead or Follow the Market?
Jim Bianco81,604 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Rational Dissent Episode 007. Are Yields Good Enough To Compete? A yield is only as good as what you compare it to, right now, rates aren't promising enough for investors to want in. Available on YT, Apple, Spotify, Overcast, etc. --- Chapters 00:00 - Introduction 01:46 - Determining the "Right" Level for Interest Rates 05:46 - Price-Sensitive vs. Price-Insensitive Treasury Buyers 12:00 - Comparing Treasuries to Alternatives 16:43 - Term Premium and the Market's Demand for Higher Yields 20:57 - The 4-5-6 Rule and Unrealistic Investor Expectations 24:28 - Will Foreign Central Banks and Price-Insensitive Buyers Return? 28:25 - Lightning Round: Will Bonds Win, or Will Everything Else Lose? 32:24 - Outro and Conclusion
Jim Bianco101,850 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Rational Dissent Episode 006. Can the Treasury Bully the Bond Market? Financial conditions never tightened and liquidity never left, the Treasury could open its wallet the same week the Fed decides whether to hike. Is it a fool’s errand? Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, Overcast, etc. -- Chapters 00:00 - Introduction and Topic Overview 02:23 - Defining Financial Conditions vs. Liquidity 05:54 - Liquidity and the Fed's Balance Sheet 08:26 - The Role of the Treasury General Account (TGA) 12:48 - Market Liquidity and Inflation Fears 21:51 - Term Premium and Market Risk 24:41 - The "Liz Truss Moment" and Bond Vigilantes 32:26 - Outro
Jim Bianco108,226 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Episode 2 of Rational Dissent, "This Is Not Your Father Fed." Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, etc. --- 00:00 – The Fed Put & Market Expectation 00:51 – Introduction & "Rational Dissent" Overview 01:22 – FOMC Meeting Recap & Warsh's Agenda 02:30 – Removing Forward Guidance: History & Impact 06:18 – The Risks and Moral Hazard of Forward Guidance 11:15 – Warsh's Vision: Independent Markets Check the Fed 13:36 – The Unintended Consequences of the Fed Put 15:38 – The "Good Family Fight": Dissents & Board Dynamics 18:18 – Historical Perspective on Fed Dissents (Volcker to Present) 25:34 – Reaction Function vs. Forward Guidance 30:30 – Lightning Round: Biggest Risks of Warsh’s Approach 33:41 – Closing Remarks & Wrap-Up
Jim Bianco134,924 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
Rational Dissent Episode 008. One Commodity Cycle or Many? Commodities as an asset class are rarely homogenous. Today, prices are moving together, which either reflects a structural relationship or a set of unrelated drivers arriving at once. Available on YT, Apple, Spotify, Overcast, etc. --- Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & The Commodity Rally 02:25 - How Commodity Total Return is Calculated 06:02 - The Structural Case for "Easy Money" 13:03 - Supply Disruption Drivers in Energy Markets 16:46 - The "Sovereignty Premium" & Central Bank Gold Buying 23:28 - Debating the Multi-Factor Reality Behind Commodities 31:46 - Closing Question: How Should the Fed Respond to Structural Commodity Shocks?
Jim Bianco81,171 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
My reaction on Bloomberg TV is below. Two takeaways. 9 - 3 vote. Dissents are the new forward guidance. I think when we get to the end of the Warsh term as Fed Chairman, we're going to see a vast majority of the meetings were 11-1 or 12-0 votes. But when they are moving to change policy, dissents are the forward guidance that tells you the Fed is about to go a different direction. What Changed? Bob Michael of JP Morgan asked what changed. He asked why the Fed would hike rates because the data didn't really move that much from June, when we had a 12-0 vote. Correct. I would argue what changed is the way that the Fed now operates. It's no longer the chairman dictating and everybody doing what he tells them. They are now independent, and this hawkishness was always there; this desire to raise rates was always there. It was just not allowed to be expressed or acted on. Now it is. That's what's changed.
Jim Bianco111,162 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
It's here: my new podcast, Rational Dissent Episode 001, "Why Do Investors Expect So Much?" Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, etc. --- Investors have become accustomed to stocks returning double digits year after year. Is that the new normal? What should investors expect? Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction to Rational Dissent 00:32 - Welcome & Market Returns Overview 02:22 - CapEx vs. Cash Flow: The 3-in-1 Tech Supercycle 06:43 - S&P Concentration: A Two-Asset Class Market 09:16 - Valuation Breakdown: The Shiller CAPE Ratio 11:38 - Explaining the 4-5-6 Market Model 17:51 - Retail Sentiment, Bubble Behavior & Software Spending 26:09 - TIPS & Long-Term Real Return Opportunities 28:13 - Lightning Round: AI's Long-Run Sector Comparable 32:42 - Closing Remarks
Jim Bianco106,296 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
Rational Dissent Episode 005. Is Bessent Helping? Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, Overcast, etc. --- Chapters 00:00 - Teaser & Introduction 01:09 - The Treasury's Rough Week 03:13 - Opening the Toolbox: Fed vs. Treasury 08:00 - The TBAC and the Optimal Issuance Mix 11:39 - The Core Issue: Unchecked Inflation 20:43 - Washington's Reluctance to Fix the Deficit 29:12 - Closing Question: Warsh vs. Bessent
Jim Bianco71,466 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Rational Dissent Episode 011. Three Risks That Matter More Than Terminator AI Available on YT, Apple, Spotify, Overcast, etc. Looking past the sensational headlines, we analyze the measurable risks truly driving markets—from Europe's winter energy vulnerabilities and cracks in distressed corporate credit to the Fed funding pressures behind the Treasury basis trade. --- Chapters - Introduction & Risks - Energy Market Breakdown - Europe Natural Gas Watch - AI Debt and Credit Spreads - Oracle and CCC Stress - Basis Trade Explained - Funding Market Triggers - Crowded Trade and Transparency - Energy and Global Fallout - One Number to Watch - Final Takeaways and Signoff
Jim Bianco33,868 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Rational Dissent Episode 009. Did the Fed Get it Right? Kevin Warsh delivered the first hike in a few years as persistent inflation bites; was it the right move? Available on YT, Apple, Spotify, Overcast, etc. --- Chapters 00:00 – Introduction & FOMC Rate Hike Overview 02:38 – Rising Bond Yields & Financial Conditions 08:02 – Structural Inflation & the Post-Pandemic Economy 24:10 – The 12–0 Vote & Threats to Fed Independence 29:10 – Eliminating Forward Guidance & Outro
Jim Bianco35,625 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
too low an interest rate is just as bad as too high an interest rate. Full podcast in the repost below.
Jim Bianco34,762 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Is the stock market now two asset classes? From our new podcast (See the repost below).
Jim Bianco50,075 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
Should the Fed hike? I say yes. This AM on Bloomberg TV
Jim Bianco51,929 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
Rational Dissent Episode 004. The State of the Labor Market Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, Overcast, etc. --- Shifting dynamics in the U.S. Labor Market have everyone from the Fed to recent graduates playing on their heels. Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & Labor Market Equilibrium 03:30 - Demographics, Immigration, and Breakeven Rates 13:00 - Data Quality & Measuring Labor Market Speed Limits 17:55 - Youth Unemployment, Demographics, and Degree Selection 28:37 - AI's Real Impact on White-Collar Jobs & Education 33:34 - How the Definition of Work is Evolving
Jim Bianco35,912 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад