Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch • 718,541 subscribers
Macro investment research at https://t.co/hQqAza8GGP Our total return index is at https://t.co/vta9eqevnU The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth
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My reaction on Bloomberg TV is below. Two takeaways. 9 - 3 vote. Dissents are the new forward guidance. I think when we get to the end of the Warsh term as Fed Chairman, we're going to see a vast majority of the meetings were 11-1 or 12-0 votes. But when they are moving to change policy, dissents are the forward guidance that tells you the Fed is about to go a different direction. What Changed? Bob Michael of JP Morgan asked what changed. He asked why the Fed would hike rates because the data didn't really move that much from June, when we had a 12-0 vote. Correct. I would argue what changed is the way that the Fed now operates. It's no longer the chairman dictating and everybody doing what he tells them. They are now independent, and this hawkishness was always there; this desire to raise rates was always there. It was just not allowed to be expressed or acted on. Now it is. That's what's changed.
Jim Bianco107,532 görüntüleme • 2 gün önce
It's here: my new podcast, Rational Dissent Episode 001, "Why Do Investors Expect So Much?" Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, etc. --- Investors have become accustomed to stocks returning double digits year after year. Is that the new normal? What should investors expect? Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction to Rational Dissent 00:32 - Welcome & Market Returns Overview 02:22 - CapEx vs. Cash Flow: The 3-in-1 Tech Supercycle 06:43 - S&P Concentration: A Two-Asset Class Market 09:16 - Valuation Breakdown: The Shiller CAPE Ratio 11:38 - Explaining the 4-5-6 Market Model 17:51 - Retail Sentiment, Bubble Behavior & Software Spending 26:09 - TIPS & Long-Term Real Return Opportunities 28:13 - Lightning Round: AI's Long-Run Sector Comparable 32:42 - Closing Remarks
Jim Bianco106,296 görüntüleme • 7 gün önce
Is the stock market now two asset classes? From our new podcast (See the repost below).
Jim Bianco50,075 görüntüleme • 6 gün önce
1/8 Yesterday, Jim appeared on Bloomberg TV, warning that if the Fed cuts rates and the market thinks this is wrong, 10-year yields could surge through 5%. (Perspective ... 10-year yields were last above 5% in October 2023 and as high as 4.85% in January). 🧵
Jim Bianco130,709 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Me talking about the economy this morning on Bloomberg Radio "I am in the three-ish percent camp for inflation. And why is that important? Because that would put the Fed Funds Neutral Rate somewhere around four and they're at 3.75 right now. So I'd argue that they're probably a slightly easy where they think that they're actually still restrictive." tom keene
Jim Bianco59,236 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce
My take on why bond yields are soaring around the world, and what it means for US bond yields
Jim Bianco77,275 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Me on Bloomberg TV talking about Venezuela, the bond market and the Fed
Jim Bianco33,576 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce
Good explanation of the Mar-A-Lago accord by Liz Capo McCormick on Bloomberg TV
Jim Bianco58,684 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Me on the Schwab Network to discuss tariffs, the Fed, and current investment themes.
Jim Bianco41,881 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Me on Bloomberg TV talking about markets. Romaine Bostick Alix Steel
Jim Bianco37,098 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
Me on CNBC's Fast Money discussing the bond market into 2025.
Jim Bianco39,714 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce