Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch • 777,162 subscribers
Macro investment research at https://t.co/hQqAza8GGP Our total return index is at https://t.co/vta9eqevnU The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth
Shorts
Videos
Rational Dissent Episode 008. One Commodity Cycle or Many? Commodities as an asset class are rarely homogenous. Today, prices are moving together, which either reflects a structural relationship or a set of unrelated drivers arriving at once. Available on YT, Apple, Spotify, Overcast, etc. --- Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & The Commodity Rally 02:25 - How Commodity Total Return is Calculated 06:02 - The Structural Case for "Easy Money" 13:03 - Supply Disruption Drivers in Energy Markets 16:46 - The "Sovereignty Premium" & Central Bank Gold Buying 23:28 - Debating the Multi-Factor Reality Behind Commodities 31:46 - Closing Question: How Should the Fed Respond to Structural Commodity Shocks?
Jim Bianco78,375 次观看 • 6 天前
Rational Dissent Episode 007. Are Yields Good Enough To Compete? A yield is only as good as what you compare it to, right now, rates aren't promising enough for investors to want in. Available on YT, Apple, Spotify, Overcast, etc. --- Chapters 00:00 - Introduction 01:46 - Determining the "Right" Level for Interest Rates 05:46 - Price-Sensitive vs. Price-Insensitive Treasury Buyers 12:00 - Comparing Treasuries to Alternatives 16:43 - Term Premium and the Market's Demand for Higher Yields 20:57 - The 4-5-6 Rule and Unrealistic Investor Expectations 24:28 - Will Foreign Central Banks and Price-Insensitive Buyers Return? 28:25 - Lightning Round: Will Bonds Win, or Will Everything Else Lose? 32:24 - Outro and Conclusion
Jim Bianco101,062 次观看 • 13 天前
Rational Dissent Episode 006. Can the Treasury Bully the Bond Market? Financial conditions never tightened and liquidity never left, the Treasury could open its wallet the same week the Fed decides whether to hike. Is it a fool’s errand? Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, Overcast, etc. -- Chapters 00:00 - Introduction and Topic Overview 02:23 - Defining Financial Conditions vs. Liquidity 05:54 - Liquidity and the Fed's Balance Sheet 08:26 - The Role of the Treasury General Account (TGA) 12:48 - Market Liquidity and Inflation Fears 21:51 - Term Premium and Market Risk 24:41 - The "Liz Truss Moment" and Bond Vigilantes 32:26 - Outro
Jim Bianco108,226 次观看 • 19 天前
Episode 2 of Rational Dissent, "This Is Not Your Father Fed." Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, etc. --- 00:00 – The Fed Put & Market Expectation 00:51 – Introduction & "Rational Dissent" Overview 01:22 – FOMC Meeting Recap & Warsh's Agenda 02:30 – Removing Forward Guidance: History & Impact 06:18 – The Risks and Moral Hazard of Forward Guidance 11:15 – Warsh's Vision: Independent Markets Check the Fed 13:36 – The Unintended Consequences of the Fed Put 15:38 – The "Good Family Fight": Dissents & Board Dynamics 18:18 – Historical Perspective on Fed Dissents (Volcker to Present) 25:34 – Reaction Function vs. Forward Guidance 30:30 – Lightning Round: Biggest Risks of Warsh’s Approach 33:41 – Closing Remarks & Wrap-Up
Jim Bianco134,924 次观看 • 1 个月前
Rational Dissent Episode 005. Is Bessent Helping? Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, Overcast, etc. --- Chapters 00:00 - Teaser & Introduction 01:09 - The Treasury's Rough Week 03:13 - Opening the Toolbox: Fed vs. Treasury 08:00 - The TBAC and the Optimal Issuance Mix 11:39 - The Core Issue: Unchecked Inflation 20:43 - Washington's Reluctance to Fix the Deficit 29:12 - Closing Question: Warsh vs. Bessent
Jim Bianco71,466 次观看 • 27 天前
My reaction on Bloomberg TV is below. Two takeaways. 9 - 3 vote. Dissents are the new forward guidance. I think when we get to the end of the Warsh term as Fed Chairman, we're going to see a vast majority of the meetings were 11-1 or 12-0 votes. But when they are moving to change policy, dissents are the forward guidance that tells you the Fed is about to go a different direction. What Changed? Bob Michael of JP Morgan asked what changed. He asked why the Fed would hike rates because the data didn't really move that much from June, when we had a 12-0 vote. Correct. I would argue what changed is the way that the Fed now operates. It's no longer the chairman dictating and everybody doing what he tells them. They are now independent, and this hawkishness was always there; this desire to raise rates was always there. It was just not allowed to be expressed or acted on. Now it is. That's what's changed.
Jim Bianco111,060 次观看 • 1 个月前
It's here: my new podcast, Rational Dissent Episode 001, "Why Do Investors Expect So Much?" Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, etc. --- Investors have become accustomed to stocks returning double digits year after year. Is that the new normal? What should investors expect? Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction to Rational Dissent 00:32 - Welcome & Market Returns Overview 02:22 - CapEx vs. Cash Flow: The 3-in-1 Tech Supercycle 06:43 - S&P Concentration: A Two-Asset Class Market 09:16 - Valuation Breakdown: The Shiller CAPE Ratio 11:38 - Explaining the 4-5-6 Market Model 17:51 - Retail Sentiment, Bubble Behavior & Software Spending 26:09 - TIPS & Long-Term Real Return Opportunities 28:13 - Lightning Round: AI's Long-Run Sector Comparable 32:42 - Closing Remarks
Jim Bianco106,296 次观看 • 1 个月前
Rational Dissent Episode 004. The State of the Labor Market Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, Overcast, etc. --- Shifting dynamics in the U.S. Labor Market have everyone from the Fed to recent graduates playing on their heels. Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & Labor Market Equilibrium 03:30 - Demographics, Immigration, and Breakeven Rates 13:00 - Data Quality & Measuring Labor Market Speed Limits 17:55 - Youth Unemployment, Demographics, and Degree Selection 28:37 - AI's Real Impact on White-Collar Jobs & Education 33:34 - How the Definition of Work is Evolving
Jim Bianco35,912 次观看 • 1 个月前
