Jim Bianco
@biancoresearch • 718,541 subscribers
Macro investment research at https://t.co/hQqAza8GGP Our total return index is at https://t.co/vta9eqevnU The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth
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My reaction on Bloomberg TV is below. Two takeaways. 9 - 3 vote. Dissents are the new forward guidance. I think when we get to the end of the Warsh term as Fed Chairman, we're going to see a vast majority of the meetings were 11-1 or 12-0 votes. But when they are moving to change policy, dissents are the forward guidance that tells you the Fed is about to go a different direction. What Changed? Bob Michael of JP Morgan asked what changed. He asked why the Fed would hike rates because the data didn't really move that much from June, when we had a 12-0 vote. Correct. I would argue what changed is the way that the Fed now operates. It's no longer the chairman dictating and everybody doing what he tells them. They are now independent, and this hawkishness was always there; this desire to raise rates was always there. It was just not allowed to be expressed or acted on. Now it is. That's what's changed.
Jim Bianco107,532 次观看 • 2 天前
It's here: my new podcast, Rational Dissent Episode 001, "Why Do Investors Expect So Much?" Available on YT, Spotify, Apple, etc. --- Investors have become accustomed to stocks returning double digits year after year. Is that the new normal? What should investors expect? Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction to Rational Dissent 00:32 - Welcome & Market Returns Overview 02:22 - CapEx vs. Cash Flow: The 3-in-1 Tech Supercycle 06:43 - S&P Concentration: A Two-Asset Class Market 09:16 - Valuation Breakdown: The Shiller CAPE Ratio 11:38 - Explaining the 4-5-6 Market Model 17:51 - Retail Sentiment, Bubble Behavior & Software Spending 26:09 - TIPS & Long-Term Real Return Opportunities 28:13 - Lightning Round: AI's Long-Run Sector Comparable 32:42 - Closing Remarks
Jim Bianco106,296 次观看 • 7 天前
Me talking about the economy this morning on Bloomberg Radio "I am in the three-ish percent camp for inflation. And why is that important? Because that would put the Fed Funds Neutral Rate somewhere around four and they're at 3.75 right now. So I'd argue that they're probably a slightly easy where they think that they're actually still restrictive." tom keene
Jim Bianco59,236 次观看 • 8 个月前
