Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
@citrinowicz • 48,290 subscribers
Middle East, National Security and intelligence expert خبير لشؤون الشرق الأوسط وإيران Senior Fellow @inss_hebrew Nonresident Fellow @AtlanticCouncil
Videos
Told Becky Anderson: Reaching a deal with Iran’s current leadership will be extremely difficult. The targeted killings of senior figures such as Khamenei and Larijani have significantly radicalized the Iranian system, strengthening hardline elements and narrowing the space for pragmatic engagement. As a result, the likelihood of meaningful diplomacy in the near term is low — while escalation dynamics continue to intensify. Israel, for its part, is likely to continue its campaign, further reinforcing a cycle of action and reaction with limited off-ramps until president Trump will decide to stop.
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش177,265 次观看 • 3 个月前
My interview CNN International: A. The negotiations were never expected to be easy. However, at a fundamental level, both sides have an interest in reaching some form of agreement. The mediators will have to work very hard to bridge the significant gaps that remain. Still, as President Trump himself acknowledged, diplomacy remains the best available option for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing concerns regarding Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. B. The Lebanese issue remains a major potential spoiler. Israel, which is not a party to any potential agreement, is not necessarily enthusiastic about a deal that could undermine its broader strategy of maintaining maximum pressure on Iran. While Israel continues to conduct operations in Lebanon to address legitimate security concerns, its long-term strategy is not entirely clear. From Israel's perspective, and with encouragement from Washington, the most constructive path forward would be to accelerate negotiations with the Lebanese government, withdraw where possible, and allow the Lebanese Armed Forces to assume control over the relevant areas in accordance with existing understandings. C. Iran may be prepared to offer limited concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, particularly given the severe economic damage it has suffered following the war. However, if policymakers in Washington believe they can leverage Iran's economic weakness to secure major concessions on its regional power projection, support for proxy groups, or far-reaching additional nuclear restrictions, they are likely to be disappointed. These issues are deeply rooted in the ideological foundations of the Islamic Republic and are viewed by the leadership as core national security interests rather than negotiable bargaining chips.
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش27,376 次观看 • 16 天前
My interview CNN International: From an Israeli perspective, the proposed U.S.–Iran agreement is seen as highly problematic. Critics in Israel argue that it could strengthen the Iranian regime, precisely the outcome Israel has long sought to prevent, while offering only uncertain or limited constraints on Iran’s nuclear program. There are also concerns that any final deal will not include meaningful restrictions on Iran’s missile program or its network of regional proxies, or that such provisions would be weak and difficult to enforce . At the same time, Israel’s ability to directly challenge or reshape the position of the U.S. administration is viewed as limited. As a result, Israeli policymakers are expected to act cautiously, particularly so as not to undermine the U.S. president’s efforts to reach an agreement. Strategically, Israel has tried to separate the Lebanese and Iranian fronts in order to manage regional escalation more effectively. However, this approach has had limited success so far. Overall, Israel’s capacity to influence the direction of U.S. policy on this issue is perceived as more constrained than in the past, given the dependence in the administration and President Trump. #IranWar
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش33,509 次观看 • 24 天前
Told Isa Soares CNN International: Nobody should be surprised by the speed of Iran’s military recovery. We already saw indications of this during the 12-day conflict. Iran has the motivation, the technical knowledge, and, importantly, many of its strategic facilities are underground and heavily fortified. Even if the current campaign were to end today, Iran would eventually rebuild its capabilities. And if fighting resumes, Iran would still retain the ability to strike Israel and the Gulf states. The gaps between Iran and the United States remain significant, but mediators are working intensively behind the scenes because both sides understand they want to avoid another war. President Trump still wants to exhaust the diplomatic option, but we are entering a critical moment. From his perspective, if no agreement is reached, he may feel he has little choice but to return to military action. Israel is extremely concerned about the possibility of a U.S.-Iran agreement. Israel would prefer to maintain or renew military pressure, and it is clear that Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump are not fully aligned on the current approach while the White House is pursuing diplomacy. For Netanyahu, almost any agreement is problematic because it could limit Israel’s freedom of action not only now, but also in the future. That is why he is trying, as much as possible, to prevent such a deal from materializing. #iran
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش39,762 次观看 • 1 个月前
Told Christina Macfarlane CNN International: A. The tensions we've seen over the last few hours are driven not only by the deep mistrust between the parties. The fact that the negotiations are not being conducted directly means that each side is trying to maximize its public achievements while inflating the costs it is supposedly being asked to pay. B. At the end of the day, the parties are closer to an agreement than ever before because neither side particularly likes its alternatives. Despite the public drama and the tough rhetoric, there is a strong incentive to reach a deal. That said, it is important to acknowledge that such an agreement would effectively strengthen the very regime that both Israel and the United States were seeking to weaken only a few months ago . C. Reaching a comprehensive nuclear agreement within 60 days will be an extremely difficult task. We should also keep in mind that as time passes, the United States may lose some of its leverage over Iran. As a result, even if the parties reach a framework understanding in the coming weeks, there is no guarantee they will be able to translate it into a final, detailed agreement. #iran
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش19,372 次观看 • 25 天前
My interview CNN International Becky Anderson: In my view, the trajectory of escalation will largely depend on President Trump's strategic decision. If he wants to preserve the possibility of a diplomatic agreement with Iran, he will likely need to pressure Israel to halt its military campaign. Otherwise, Iran, seeking to establish a new deterrence equation in the region, will feel compelled to respond to every Israeli strike. Such a response would not necessarily come from Iran alone, but could also involve its regional partners and proxies, raising the risk of a broader regional confrontation. #IranWar
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش19,374 次观看 • 1 个月前
My full interview Jim Sciutto CNN International: Key Takeaways: Extending the ceasefire is not a viable long-term solution. President Trump’s threats are unlikely to compel the Iranian leadership to capitulate, and Tehran is more likely to respond to sustained pressure, such as a maritime blockade rather than to concede to U.S. negotiating demands. Over time, in order to reach a durable agreement, the administration will likely have to make concessions of its own. Absent such flexibility, escalation becomes increasingly likely. This could include significant disruptions to maritime traffic, up to and including attempts to close strategic chokepoints such as the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش37,575 次观看 • 2 个月前
My interview Becky Anderson CNN We are entering a critical window in the negotiations between the United States and Iran. Israel opposes any agreement with Iran and, as part of its strategy to prevent Iran from becoming a strategic threat, seeks to preserve the option of targeting not only military assets but also civilian infrastructure. The key question that should concern policymakers is: what is the objective of the current pressure campaign? It is increasingly clear that Iran is unlikely to capitulate, relinquish its enriched material, or accept externally imposed terms. Faced with a choice between surrender and escalation, Tehran is far more likely to choose escalation. Moreover, actions against civilian infrastructure risk strengthening the regime’s narrative and allowing it to frame the conflict as one against Iran as a nation, rather than against the regime itself. The gaps between the parties remain substantial. The real challenge lies in providing Iran with credible assurances that the conflict will truly end, even if, in practice, what is being offered is only a temporary ceasefire. To date, none of the core issues have been resolved, and the immediate priority should be identifying mechanisms that can bridge the deep mistrust between the sides. #iran
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش22,493 次观看 • 3 个月前
In my recent interview BBC I addressed the idea of a naval blockade on Iran and why, in my assessment, it is unlikely to force Iranian capitulation. If 40 days of sustained military strikes did not produce a fundamental strategic shift, it is hard to see how a blockade alone would achieve a different outcome. I also discussed the prospects for a nuclear agreement. A deal is possible, but it will largely depend on how far each side is willing to adjust its expectations and close the existing gaps. #iran
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش16,196 次观看 • 2 个月前
My interview, Becky Anderson CNN International - I argued that the central problem in current U.S.-Iran relations is the absence of a clear American strategic vision regarding the future of the relationship. What we are seeing instead is a pattern of strategic improvisation that reflects deep uncertainty within the administration about which course of action to pursue. The administration may still be able to secure two important objectives simultaneously: keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and imposing limits on Iran’s nuclear program — but only if Washington is ultimately prepared to accept some version of the Iranian negotiating framework. Even then, there is very little evidence to suggest that Tehran is prepared to wave a white flag or fundamentally surrender to american pressure. From Israel’s perspective, which remains highly dependent on President Trump’s decisions and broader U.S. policy, a flawed agreement may ultimately be viewed as more dangerous than the absence of an agreement altogether. #IranWar
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش10,697 次观看 • 2 个月前
My interview CNN regarding the Assessment of the campaign’s outcomes While the campaign produced a number of impressive tactical achievements, these did not translate into meaningful strategic gains or contribute to destabilizing the regime. The Strait of Hormuz episode illustrates the campaign’s flawed strategic preparation. The waterway was open prior to the conflict, yet the current outcome has effectively granted Iran a form of implicit international recognition of its control. Israel opposes such an arrangement, but in practice has limited ability to alter it. Notably, this may be one of the first instances in the campaign where Israel and the United States are not fully aligned regarding the desired end state. At the same time, the Lebanese front presents a different constraint. Prime Minister Netanyahu faces significant domestic political limitations that make agreement to a ceasefire highly unlikely. This dynamic complicates efforts to de-escalate and represents a challenge the U.S. administration will likely need to manage directly. #iran
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش13,593 次观看 • 3 个月前
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