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Craig Steinke

@Craig_Steinke • 49,101 subscribers

Co-founder, CEO & Director of BluEnergies Ltd. A West Africa deepwater oil & gas explorer targeting Cretaceous basin floor fan plays. TSXV: BLU | OTCQX: BLUGF

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The Houthis just reignited the Middle East oil crisis. This could be one of the biggest actions of the conflict so far, and one that American consumers feel at home within days. They've just claimed they hit the two remaining things that have kept Saudi oil flowing throughout this war: • Pumping stations on the East-West pipeline • Aramco's Abqaiq plant, the biggest oil processing site on the planet With Iran choking off the Strait of Hormuz, that pipeline is Saudi Arabia's escape hatch. It runs 1,200 km across the desert to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and can move up to 7M barrels a day without going anywhere near the Gulf. Abqaiq is where most Saudi crude gets processed before it ships. The last time it was hit, in 2019, Saudi output was cut in half overnight and oil jumped almost 15% in a single day. Now both are in the firing line at the same time. The Houthis also said they went after Riyadh's main airport and its financial district. They already hit that district on Sunday, when debris tore into several floors of the Aramco Tower. That makes three days in a row of strikes on Saudi energy. Sunday was the Aramco Tower. Monday brought a fire on the same pipeline near Medina. Today it's Abqaiq. Saudi Arabia has played down every attack so far, and nobody has confirmed today's damage yet. But the Houthis keep coming back to the same targets, and Saudi oil has no other big route around Hormuz. Assuming this announcement is true, the world loses the barrels it's been counting on to get through this war. This could change the tide of the fuel markets dramatically.

The Houthis just reignited the Middle East oil crisis. This could be one of the biggest actions of the conflict so far, and one that American consumers feel at home within days. They've just claimed they hit the two remaining things that have kept Saudi oil flowing throughout this war: • Pumping stations on the East-West pipeline • Aramco's Abqaiq plant, the biggest oil processing site on the planet With Iran choking off the Strait of Hormuz, that pipeline is Saudi Arabia's escape hatch. It runs 1,200 km across the desert to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and can move up to 7M barrels a day without going anywhere near the Gulf. Abqaiq is where most Saudi crude gets processed before it ships. The last time it was hit, in 2019, Saudi output was cut in half overnight and oil jumped almost 15% in a single day. Now both are in the firing line at the same time. The Houthis also said they went after Riyadh's main airport and its financial district. They already hit that district on Sunday, when debris tore into several floors of the Aramco Tower. That makes three days in a row of strikes on Saudi energy. Sunday was the Aramco Tower. Monday brought a fire on the same pipeline near Medina. Today it's Abqaiq. Saudi Arabia has played down every attack so far, and nobody has confirmed today's damage yet. But the Houthis keep coming back to the same targets, and Saudi oil has no other big route around Hormuz. Assuming this announcement is true, the world loses the barrels it's been counting on to get through this war. This could change the tide of the fuel markets dramatically.

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Elon Musk says the AI boom is about to hit a wall on power, and the hold-up is gas turbines. They're sold out through 2030, and only three companies on earth make the blades inside them. Now, Silicon Valley just found out it's in the natural gas business:👇 Musk told Dwarkesh Patel that AI chips are now being made faster than anyone can build the power plants to switch them on. He says other forms of power are very hard to scale quickly, which leaves gas. And you can't just order more gas turbines. The choke point is a single part. According to Musk, you can get everything else for a turbine 12 to 18 months before the vanes and blades arrive. Only three casting companies in the world make them, and all three are massively backlogged. The order books say the same thing. GE Vernova, America's biggest gas turbine maker, reported last week that 122 GW of its turbines are now ordered or reserved. It expects at least 130 GW by year-end. At the 20 GW a year it was aiming to build at by this quarter, that's roughly six years of production spoken for. Here's what that looks like on the ground. Musk says his xAI team had to gang together a whole bunch of turbines just to get a gigawatt online. They hit permit problems in Tennessee, so they crossed the border and built the power plant in Mississippi. Every one of those turbines burns natural gas. Gas already makes 40% of America's electricity, and the EIA expects record US power generation this year and again next year, with data centres one of the main drivers. I've said for a long time that years of underinvestment in oil and gas end one way: the industry hits a wall on supply. And Elon just described what that wall looks like. For years, Western energy policy treated gas as a fuel on its way out. Exploration was discouraged, projects were slowed and capital went elsewhere. Now the AI boom needs more of it than anyone planned for, and the supply chain behind it is already stretched. The energy transition was always going to be a longer road than its advocates admitted. Musk's long-term answer is solar in space, but the AI clusters going up on the ground right now are running on natural gas.

Craig Steinke

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