Decision Desk HQ
@DecisionDeskHQ • 446,827 subscribers
Fast and reliable results and analysis for elections at every level. Results: https://t.co/m72ZYzrXNp Analysis: https://t.co/yJw0tgfYdG
Videos
Strategists in both parties agree on Sen. Dan Sullivan's (R) path to holding Alaska: dent Mary Peltola's (D) favorability. The DDHQ Forecast gives Peltola a 62% chance of winning. Alaska Beacon || bsky @alaskabeacon.com reporter James Brooks joined DDHQ's Geoffrey Skelley on the race. #AKSen
Decision Desk HQ19,476 views • 7 days ago
James Talarico (D) has led in 25 of 30 polls. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke led in just *1* through September. Talarico is up 47%-44% over Ken Paxton (R) in DDHQ's poll average. Gabby Birenbaum from Texas Tribune joined DDHQ's Geoffrey Skelley on why that trend is "impossible to ignore." #TXSen
Decision Desk HQ46,615 views • 27 days ago
On DDHQ's latest podcast, Patrick Ruffini of @echeloninsights found that Senate polls in recent cycles have tended to overstate Democrats. What could this mean for their recent strong polling in key Senate races in red-leaning states like Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa?
Decision Desk HQ20,873 views • 1 month ago
In DDHQ's latest podcast, we looked at our new governors forecast! Texas remains a red state even though #TXSen is a toss-up — that's required a blue environment + weak candidate (Paxton). Meanwhile, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has about a 3 in 4 shot of winning reelection in #TXGov.
Decision Desk HQ16,682 views • 1 month ago
DDHQ's podcast had great convo with Rachel Janfaza about nuances of young Americans' more favorable view of socialism. Social programs espoused by left-wing candidates feel new to young voters & address concerns at a time when both parties' establishments seem out of touch.
Decision Desk HQ22,809 views • 2 months ago
This week's DDHQ podcast: Sean T at RCP joined to talk about the consequences of the Voting Rights Act's anticipated demise. We also dug into 2030 census projections. Sean noted how post-VRA redistricting could run into incumbents' preferences and complicate future redraws.
Decision Desk HQ53,676 views • 7 months ago
DDHQ spoke w/ FiftyPlusOne.news's Primary Project about which groups have been successful in 2026. It's can be hard to register how well groups like AIPAC have done — not always clear who they support, though they may oppose someone, like Tom Malinowski in February #NJ11 special.
Decision Desk HQ21,890 views • 2 months ago
In our latest podcast, the DDHQ team provides an overview of our 2026 election forecast. The overall situation, how it works, and much more. #MISen looms large: -El-Sayed is more left-wing candidate -He *could* be weaker in November -R win in MI = 86% chance Rs hold Senate.
Decision Desk HQ21,821 views • 2 months ago
Before anything else happens, listen to DDHQ's chat with Michael Shepherd from Bangor Daily News about Maine's Senate race. Democrats haven't yet abandoned Platner, but the drip, drip could reach a tipping point. We also, ahem, discussed how replacing a nominee works in Maine.
Decision Desk HQ30,271 views • 4 months ago
What's next in #MESen now that Graham Platner is (nearly) out? DDHQ spoke with Bangor Daily News politics editor Michael Shepherd. The new Maine Dem nominee will have 2 big challenges: Party unity post-Platner + winning over the Biden-Collins voters likely needed to flip the seat.
Decision Desk HQ23,712 views • 3 months ago
On this week's DDHQ Podcast, Erin Covey from Cook Political Report joined to talk about 2026's under-the-radar House races. Cook recently rated #TX23 as somewhat competitive, so we talked about how the race between guninfluencer Brandon Herrera (R) & Katy Padilla Stout (D) gets close.
Decision Desk HQ40,332 views • 7 months ago
Maps, maps & more maps. In this week's episode of the DDHQ Podcast, Geoffrey Skelley & guest Nathaniel Rakich toured the 6 states that have redistricted their congressional maps. A big ? is Texas, where a federal judicial panel just blocked the new map.
Decision Desk HQ57,683 views • 11 months ago
In this week's DDHQ podcast, Geoffrey Skelley & J. Miles Coleman talked Minnesota's gubernatorial race after Tim Walz's exit & Virginia redistricting. In #MNGov, Amy Klobuchar's strong electoral record suggests she'd be a formidable Walz substitute.
Decision Desk HQ44,935 views • 9 months ago
On this week's DDHQ podcast, Geoffrey Skelley & Scott Tranter spoke with Eli McKown-Dawson about the 2025 polls & looked ahead to 2026. Polls undershot Trump in recent pres races, but were closer to the mark in midterms or even overestimated GOP. Watch/listen here:
Decision Desk HQ42,005 views • 9 months ago