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DeFi_Machine

@DeFi_Machine • 2,757 subscribers

Investor and Trader | AI + Crypto + Macro 🌐 Daily market analysis. No noise. Not financial advice.

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🚨 THIS IS HOW THE NEXT GLOBAL CRISIS BEGINS, AND IT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE ONE MARKET NOBODY WATCHES Three weeks ago I warned about a debt crisis building. Since then every number moved the wrong way. Here is the truth almost nobody wants to hear. The S&P 500, Bitcoin, all of crypto, they are dust compared to the bond market. The global bond market sets the price of money itself. Every stock, every coin, every mortgage, every government is built on top of it. When it moves, everything moves. And right now, it is cracking on three fronts at once. THE UNITED STATES → 30Y yield: 5.31%, a 19-YEAR high → 10Y: 4.73%, closing in on 5% → Levels last seen right before 2008 → Foreign buyers pulled $72B out in a single month America's biggest lenders are walking away. CHINA → Cut its US Treasury holdings to $633B, an 18-YEAR low → The lowest since September 2008 For years China was one of the biggest buyers of US debt. Now it is doing the opposite, steadily backing away from funding America and the rest of the world. The buyer that helped keep borrowing cheap is gone. JAPAN → Near-zero rates for THREE DECADES, now ending → 10Y yield hit 3%, highest since 1996 → 30Y broke above 4% When Japanese bonds pay again, Japanese money stops funding the world and stays home. Another giant buyer disappears. EUROPE → France's 10Y at 4.10%, highest since 2009 → Germany's 30Y at 3.73%, highest since 2011 → UK's 30Y gilt at 5.85% France is the weak link. Italy must refinance debt worth 17% of its GDP this year. Every major government on earth is paying more to borrow, at the same time, for the same reasons. The trigger could be anything. But the weakest point in the whole system is Japan. Three decades of cheap money unwinding at once is the crack that could split the entire foundation. Watch the bond market first. Everything else is a sideshow. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE NEXT GLOBAL CRISIS BEGINS, AND IT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE ONE MARKET NOBODY WATCHES Three weeks ago I warned about a debt crisis building. Since then every number moved the wrong way. Here is the truth almost nobody wants to hear. The S&P 500, Bitcoin, all of crypto, they are dust compared to the bond market. The global bond market sets the price of money itself. Every stock, every coin, every mortgage, every government is built on top of it. When it moves, everything moves. And right now, it is cracking on three fronts at once. THE UNITED STATES → 30Y yield: 5.31%, a 19-YEAR high → 10Y: 4.73%, closing in on 5% → Levels last seen right before 2008 → Foreign buyers pulled $72B out in a single month America's biggest lenders are walking away. CHINA → Cut its US Treasury holdings to $633B, an 18-YEAR low → The lowest since September 2008 For years China was one of the biggest buyers of US debt. Now it is doing the opposite, steadily backing away from funding America and the rest of the world. The buyer that helped keep borrowing cheap is gone. JAPAN → Near-zero rates for THREE DECADES, now ending → 10Y yield hit 3%, highest since 1996 → 30Y broke above 4% When Japanese bonds pay again, Japanese money stops funding the world and stays home. Another giant buyer disappears. EUROPE → France's 10Y at 4.10%, highest since 2009 → Germany's 30Y at 3.73%, highest since 2011 → UK's 30Y gilt at 5.85% France is the weak link. Italy must refinance debt worth 17% of its GDP this year. Every major government on earth is paying more to borrow, at the same time, for the same reasons. The trigger could be anything. But the weakest point in the whole system is Japan. Three decades of cheap money unwinding at once is the crack that could split the entire foundation. Watch the bond market first. Everything else is a sideshow. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

304,193 просмотров

🚨 JAPAN'S GDP JUST MISSED HARD — 1.1% vs 2.0% EXPECTED The headline number is bad. The details are worse. → Private consumption FLAT. First non-positive reading in 8 quarters → Domestic demand SUBTRACTED from growth → Exports were the only thing keeping this positive → Prices rising 2.6% while the economy barely grows This complicates everything I laid out here. BOJ wants to hike in September to defend the yen and fight inflation. But you don't hike into a domestic demand collapse like this. Weak growth. Sticky inflation. Rising rates anyway. Sound familiar? That's the same stagflation trap the Fed is in right now, just hitting Japan first.

🚨 JAPAN'S GDP JUST MISSED HARD — 1.1% vs 2.0% EXPECTED The headline number is bad. The details are worse. → Private consumption FLAT. First non-positive reading in 8 quarters → Domestic demand SUBTRACTED from growth → Exports were the only thing keeping this positive → Prices rising 2.6% while the economy barely grows This complicates everything I laid out here. BOJ wants to hike in September to defend the yen and fight inflation. But you don't hike into a domestic demand collapse like this. Weak growth. Sticky inflation. Rising rates anyway. Sound familiar? That's the same stagflation trap the Fed is in right now, just hitting Japan first.

20,705 просмотров