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Sam Altman reveals his favorite Naval quote: "Naval Ravikant used to say this thing that I loved, which is, if you had a fast-forward button on a remote for your life, your life would be over." "The boring parts, the bad parts, they're still much better than no experience. It’s all part of the interestingness and the kind of emotional depth and range. And I don’t know, I find it fairly easy to be grateful for the bad days."

Sam Altman reveals his favorite Naval quote: "Naval Ravikant used to say this thing that I loved, which is, if you had a fast-forward button on a remote for your life, your life would be over." "The boring parts, the bad parts, they're still much better than no experience. It’s all part of the interestingness and the kind of emotional depth and range. And I don’t know, I find it fairly easy to be grateful for the bad days."

545,063 görüntüleme • 2 gün önce

David Friedberg says Google basically used to ‘distill’ Microsoft and Yahoo “At Google, in the early days, we would submit millions of search queries to Yahoo and Microsoft search engines to see what the result sets were. We would compare our results against theirs as a way of improving our search engine rankings and our algorithm.” “It was a very common technique. It doesn’t mean we were stealing their algorithm. We didn’t go into their servers and steal their software. We looked at the output of their software and used that to improve our software.”

David Friedberg says Google basically used to ‘distill’ Microsoft and Yahoo “At Google, in the early days, we would submit millions of search queries to Yahoo and Microsoft search engines to see what the result sets were. We would compare our results against theirs as a way of improving our search engine rankings and our algorithm.” “It was a very common technique. It doesn’t mean we were stealing their algorithm. We didn’t go into their servers and steal their software. We looked at the output of their software and used that to improve our software.”

400,058 görüntüleme • 2 gün önce

Sam Altman says the four hour work week isn't coming, even with AI: "Technology for a long time has been promising people that they’re going to work less and have all this leisure. And it has gone in that direction." "But somehow we never get the promise of the four hour workweek at mass scale in society. And I don’t expect AI to change that." "Clearly, society is not working for a lot of people, and more productivity gains that actually accrue to people would be a great thing. And I suspect they will. I suspect that will happen."

Sam Altman says the four hour work week isn't coming, even with AI: "Technology for a long time has been promising people that they’re going to work less and have all this leisure. And it has gone in that direction." "But somehow we never get the promise of the four hour workweek at mass scale in society. And I don’t expect AI to change that." "Clearly, society is not working for a lot of people, and more productivity gains that actually accrue to people would be a great thing. And I suspect they will. I suspect that will happen."

148,243 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce

Chamath reveals his company's AI token costs are doubling every 45 days but productivity is only up 5% "I sat down with my CTO today, I said how are we doing on token spend. And he said the most incredible thing, he said right now, our token costs are doubling every 45 days. I said well what is the downstream productivity? And he said maybe 5% max." "So my costs are doubling every 45 days, my upside is essentially flat. He said honestly, what we're finding out is that you need to use a lot more tokens to get to this next iteration of improvement because we've effectively already asymptoted." "We're going to take a step back and try to figure out what to do. I don't know how many other companies will actually go through this reckoning now, but the point is everybody in the next three or four years will for sure go through it." "I suspect that if you can get out now, you should get out now before all of that starts to seep into the water table. Because I think that's probably what allows you to get out at a huge price and raise a huge amount of money."

Chamath reveals his company's AI token costs are doubling every 45 days but productivity is only up 5% "I sat down with my CTO today, I said how are we doing on token spend. And he said the most incredible thing, he said right now, our token costs are doubling every 45 days. I said well what is the downstream productivity? And he said maybe 5% max." "So my costs are doubling every 45 days, my upside is essentially flat. He said honestly, what we're finding out is that you need to use a lot more tokens to get to this next iteration of improvement because we've effectively already asymptoted." "We're going to take a step back and try to figure out what to do. I don't know how many other companies will actually go through this reckoning now, but the point is everybody in the next three or four years will for sure go through it." "I suspect that if you can get out now, you should get out now before all of that starts to seep into the water table. Because I think that's probably what allows you to get out at a huge price and raise a huge amount of money."

1,528,531 görüntüleme • 17 gün önce

David Sacks says Anthropic could stop Chinese distillation if they wanted to, but they won't because it slows growth "The way that you know that this whole distillation thing is fake, is because if stopping distillation was their primary objective, Anthropic would push to ban Chinese access to American models, not American access to Chinese models." "They’re the ones in the best position to block it. If industrial scale distillation is a national security threat, they’re the ones who need to stop it, because that is the place where distillation occurs. You have to stop it at the source." "They know that if they KYC their customers, it’ll slow their growth. So instead, what they’re saying is, “Hey, ban our competitors.” If they really think it’s that big a threat, they should use a few points of their 90% gross margins to do that." "It seems to me that this debate is all backwards. The question should be on Anthropic to explain why it’s doing such a bad job, not on the whole American open source ecosystem to be punished for Anthropic’s failure."

David Sacks says Anthropic could stop Chinese distillation if they wanted to, but they won't because it slows growth "The way that you know that this whole distillation thing is fake, is because if stopping distillation was their primary objective, Anthropic would push to ban Chinese access to American models, not American access to Chinese models." "They’re the ones in the best position to block it. If industrial scale distillation is a national security threat, they’re the ones who need to stop it, because that is the place where distillation occurs. You have to stop it at the source." "They know that if they KYC their customers, it’ll slow their growth. So instead, what they’re saying is, “Hey, ban our competitors.” If they really think it’s that big a threat, they should use a few points of their 90% gross margins to do that." "It seems to me that this debate is all backwards. The question should be on Anthropic to explain why it’s doing such a bad job, not on the whole American open source ecosystem to be punished for Anthropic’s failure."

188,369 görüntüleme • 3 gün önce

Palmer Luckey reveals the only type of chemical weapon he would ever build "Chemical weapons I would build, but in a very specific vertical. And this is a very controversial thing. So I want to be very specific about this, and so if you post it, please include this as well." "I'll give you an example: pepper spray is illegal for most military units to use. We are not able to use pepper spray, tear gas, as part of our conventional offensive military tactics. I think that's a huge mistake." "I think we understand chemical weapons enough to know there's no real slippery slope from literally hot pepper juice to nerve agents that are going to kill you. There is no slope." "I think it is inarguably a moral win for us to be able to have a continuum of force that does not have a gap between shouting at people and shooting them. And I think pepper spray is right in that continuum." "I absolutely would love to build certain types of chemical weapons that give you something in that continuum. But biological weapons I would not build."

Palmer Luckey reveals the only type of chemical weapon he would ever build "Chemical weapons I would build, but in a very specific vertical. And this is a very controversial thing. So I want to be very specific about this, and so if you post it, please include this as well." "I'll give you an example: pepper spray is illegal for most military units to use. We are not able to use pepper spray, tear gas, as part of our conventional offensive military tactics. I think that's a huge mistake." "I think we understand chemical weapons enough to know there's no real slippery slope from literally hot pepper juice to nerve agents that are going to kill you. There is no slope." "I think it is inarguably a moral win for us to be able to have a continuum of force that does not have a gap between shouting at people and shooting them. And I think pepper spray is right in that continuum." "I absolutely would love to build certain types of chemical weapons that give you something in that continuum. But biological weapons I would not build."

763,229 görüntüleme • 13 gün önce

David Friedberg says the greatest lie of the 20th century was putting all your net worth in your home "When you do that, then the only way to keep Americans wealthy and to keep the middle class stable is to keep the price of homes going up, because that’s the only asset." “So if you want your net worth to go up every year, they need to have policies that drive the price of homes up every year. That ultimately leads to a point where we're at today where young people can’t afford those super expensive homes." “Back in the day, 30, 40 years ago, you got a good job, you could buy a home. Today, because we made everyone put all of their net worth in their home and we had to keep home prices going up, people got screwed." “So these are the fundamental issues, the mistakes that were made over the last couple of decades that lead to this great socialist wave that’s underway right now.”

David Friedberg says the greatest lie of the 20th century was putting all your net worth in your home "When you do that, then the only way to keep Americans wealthy and to keep the middle class stable is to keep the price of homes going up, because that’s the only asset." “So if you want your net worth to go up every year, they need to have policies that drive the price of homes up every year. That ultimately leads to a point where we're at today where young people can’t afford those super expensive homes." “Back in the day, 30, 40 years ago, you got a good job, you could buy a home. Today, because we made everyone put all of their net worth in their home and we had to keep home prices going up, people got screwed." “So these are the fundamental issues, the mistakes that were made over the last couple of decades that lead to this great socialist wave that’s underway right now.”

232,072 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce

Chamath and David Sacks start laughing at Jcal's $AAPL thesis: “I think $AAPL is a screaming buy right now. And that's not financial advice, but my Lord, that company could just run the table on AI if they get this right." “It’s just like the iPhone. Everybody laughed at the first iPhone.” "If you think about how Apple makes money off of hardware, off of their devices, they will put so much downward pressure on Claude and OpenAI by just running local models and supporting them with this memory architecture." "It’s going to be wild when people have unlimited tokens on their desktop, I'm telling you."

Chamath and David Sacks start laughing at Jcal's $AAPL thesis: “I think $AAPL is a screaming buy right now. And that's not financial advice, but my Lord, that company could just run the table on AI if they get this right." “It’s just like the iPhone. Everybody laughed at the first iPhone.” "If you think about how Apple makes money off of hardware, off of their devices, they will put so much downward pressure on Claude and OpenAI by just running local models and supporting them with this memory architecture." "It’s going to be wild when people have unlimited tokens on their desktop, I'm telling you."

323,451 görüntüleme • 7 gün önce

David Friedberg says if you want to bet on AI you should own Google ($GOOG) "If you want to bet against Google’s deployment of capital into infrastructure because you’d rather have them give you cash for your shares today, you shouldn’t own the stock. Someone else will buy it." "I think Google wins in a lot of different ways. There’s the consumer business, there’s also YouTube. There’s also GCP." "I think there’s no better suited enterprise layer than GCP to take advantage of capturing value with AI for that enterprise setting. You can run any model you want and you can run any workflow you want, and you don’t have to be tied in." "There’s also this portfolio of other bets, which includes 10% of SpaceX and a good chunk of Anthropic that they own, worth way more than $100 billion. They just went up $20 billion on Anthropic in the quarter." "The worst, worst, worst case scenario is they have the lowest cost infrastructure in the world to run other people’s models as a service, like Elon did with Grok and the Colossus."

David Friedberg says if you want to bet on AI you should own Google ($GOOG) "If you want to bet against Google’s deployment of capital into infrastructure because you’d rather have them give you cash for your shares today, you shouldn’t own the stock. Someone else will buy it." "I think Google wins in a lot of different ways. There’s the consumer business, there’s also YouTube. There’s also GCP." "I think there’s no better suited enterprise layer than GCP to take advantage of capturing value with AI for that enterprise setting. You can run any model you want and you can run any workflow you want, and you don’t have to be tied in." "There’s also this portfolio of other bets, which includes 10% of SpaceX and a good chunk of Anthropic that they own, worth way more than $100 billion. They just went up $20 billion on Anthropic in the quarter." "The worst, worst, worst case scenario is they have the lowest cost infrastructure in the world to run other people’s models as a service, like Elon did with Grok and the Colossus."

96,194 görüntüleme • 2 gün önce

David Friedberg predicts AOC will be President and says red states might leave the U.S. if she wins "I do predict AOC will be president. I would say AOC would be my front runner based on the extraordinary cost of living and wealth disparity. Those two things are going to continue to drive the socialist movement over the next 24 months." "And if AOC comes in and they bail out California and they federalize California's liabilities, you're going to see parts of this union, the red states... say, why should we be part of this union anymore?" "We don't want to pay for all of these liabilities that these blue states have accrued and that we are now being asked to bail out. And that is where I think you face a crisis of the union in the years ahead."

David Friedberg predicts AOC will be President and says red states might leave the U.S. if she wins "I do predict AOC will be president. I would say AOC would be my front runner based on the extraordinary cost of living and wealth disparity. Those two things are going to continue to drive the socialist movement over the next 24 months." "And if AOC comes in and they bail out California and they federalize California's liabilities, you're going to see parts of this union, the red states... say, why should we be part of this union anymore?" "We don't want to pay for all of these liabilities that these blue states have accrued and that we are now being asked to bail out. And that is where I think you face a crisis of the union in the years ahead."

791,892 görüntüleme • 23 gün önce

Chamath reveals why the market doesn't trust Sam Altman and Dario yet "Let's be clear. There are three leaders of AI labs who have been in the spotlight for 20 years: Elon, Sundar and Demis, Zuck." "I think those folks have shown that they basically run a straightforward, well understood business. There aren't any rug pulling situations." "Then all of a sudden you have these two guys (Sam Altman and Dario), who are incredible entrepreneurs, clearly. But the amount of collectible data that you can look at, behavioral instances where they've had to make hard decisions, is still relatively limited. They're only a few years into being this public and being this scrutinized."

Chamath reveals why the market doesn't trust Sam Altman and Dario yet "Let's be clear. There are three leaders of AI labs who have been in the spotlight for 20 years: Elon, Sundar and Demis, Zuck." "I think those folks have shown that they basically run a straightforward, well understood business. There aren't any rug pulling situations." "Then all of a sudden you have these two guys (Sam Altman and Dario), who are incredible entrepreneurs, clearly. But the amount of collectible data that you can look at, behavioral instances where they've had to make hard decisions, is still relatively limited. They're only a few years into being this public and being this scrutinized."

255,806 görüntüleme • 13 gün önce

Martin Shkreli reveals what separates great traders from everyone else "Traders are risk managers, fundamentally. Alpha is critical, but you cannot be a trader without excellent risk management." "You have to be able to get out of a losing position, which for so many people is really hard to do. To a great trader, it's very easy. But you also have to be able to resist lots of different impulses. You can't be impulsive. "That's why not many people are great traders. If anybody could be a great trader, you could easily get to a billion dollars in your personal account, but it's very hard." "Bad traders will either change their mind too quickly, or never at all. Eventually, enough stubbornness will lead you to bankruptcy. But if you unloosen that screw too much, that's not very good for stocks you really believe in that could go up 10 or 20 or 30X." "Good traders know when to get off the ride and not overstay their welcome, which I recommend after a 10x, 20x, 30x. You don't need the last 2x, you got most of it." "You're not paid to calculate, analyzing, channel checks, modeling, research. You're paid to make this line of PnL go up. That's the only part of the job that matters. It doesn't matter if you were right in the long run. All that matters is this line going up."

Martin Shkreli reveals what separates great traders from everyone else "Traders are risk managers, fundamentally. Alpha is critical, but you cannot be a trader without excellent risk management." "You have to be able to get out of a losing position, which for so many people is really hard to do. To a great trader, it's very easy. But you also have to be able to resist lots of different impulses. You can't be impulsive. "That's why not many people are great traders. If anybody could be a great trader, you could easily get to a billion dollars in your personal account, but it's very hard." "Bad traders will either change their mind too quickly, or never at all. Eventually, enough stubbornness will lead you to bankruptcy. But if you unloosen that screw too much, that's not very good for stocks you really believe in that could go up 10 or 20 or 30X." "Good traders know when to get off the ride and not overstay their welcome, which I recommend after a 10x, 20x, 30x. You don't need the last 2x, you got most of it." "You're not paid to calculate, analyzing, channel checks, modeling, research. You're paid to make this line of PnL go up. That's the only part of the job that matters. It doesn't matter if you were right in the long run. All that matters is this line going up."

211,926 görüntüleme • 14 gün önce

Gavin Baker reveals the investing advice he always comes back to: "panic early or double down late" "If you're losing money, you're wrong. It's not that the market is being stupid. It's not that people are missing something. You're wrong. What decision do you make?" "Jennifer Urig, who was such a good friend and mentor, she had this phrase that I always think about. Ultimately, as an investor, you either have to panic early or double down late. Essentially no one does both. And know thyself." "I am not a panic early person. I am a double down late person. And I think knowing that is something that kind of helps me go through a drawdown or a tough period of performance."

Gavin Baker reveals the investing advice he always comes back to: "panic early or double down late" "If you're losing money, you're wrong. It's not that the market is being stupid. It's not that people are missing something. You're wrong. What decision do you make?" "Jennifer Urig, who was such a good friend and mentor, she had this phrase that I always think about. Ultimately, as an investor, you either have to panic early or double down late. Essentially no one does both. And know thyself." "I am not a panic early person. I am a double down late person. And I think knowing that is something that kind of helps me go through a drawdown or a tough period of performance."

270,891 görüntüleme • 19 gün önce

Brad Gerstner says he's talked to Sam Altman, Dario and Elon Musk about giving 1-5% of their company directly to every American "I totally disagree with Bernie's suggestion that you're just going to take 50% of these companies. But, if they want to voluntarily give 1%, 2%, 5% of their shares..." "It should be voluntary and then distributed directly into citizen accounts. I've talked with Sam about it. I've talked with Elon about it. I've talked with Dario about it." "Intel was really struggling as a company. The US government smartly said, 'We need to rebuild our entire semiconductor stack here in America, not dependent exclusively on Taiwan.' They invested dollars and got shares in return. It's been a massive success for the federal government." "I do not believe the government should be in the business of shaking down companies, taking shares like Bernie is suggesting. That is totally a socialist idea."

Brad Gerstner says he's talked to Sam Altman, Dario and Elon Musk about giving 1-5% of their company directly to every American "I totally disagree with Bernie's suggestion that you're just going to take 50% of these companies. But, if they want to voluntarily give 1%, 2%, 5% of their shares..." "It should be voluntary and then distributed directly into citizen accounts. I've talked with Sam about it. I've talked with Elon about it. I've talked with Dario about it." "Intel was really struggling as a company. The US government smartly said, 'We need to rebuild our entire semiconductor stack here in America, not dependent exclusively on Taiwan.' They invested dollars and got shares in return. It's been a massive success for the federal government." "I do not believe the government should be in the business of shaking down companies, taking shares like Bernie is suggesting. That is totally a socialist idea."

260,679 görüntüleme • 19 gün önce

David Friedberg says Anthropic asked big pharma for their data and nearly everyone said no "There's been an effort by Anthropic to sign up life sciences companies to contribute to a new life sciences focused model. They're approaching these large companies with large proprietary data sets and saying, if you share your data, we will give you early access, some sort of proprietary value. Sign this NDA and you can participate with us." "I think nearly everyone I've spoken with has woken up to the fact that they are trying to commoditize everyone's business. If all of the tens of billions of dollars you have invested in experiments and product development, and you've generated all of this proprietary data along the way, that data is a true asset of your organization. It's an asset that you've spent billions of dollars developing." "And by handing it over to a model company to then combine with other people's data, you are commoditizing the one core differentiation that you have. And so everyone is largely saying no." "I think what everyone's realizing is they're better off developing their own weights and their own models using either an open source basis or there might be some intermediary business model that evolves."

David Friedberg says Anthropic asked big pharma for their data and nearly everyone said no "There's been an effort by Anthropic to sign up life sciences companies to contribute to a new life sciences focused model. They're approaching these large companies with large proprietary data sets and saying, if you share your data, we will give you early access, some sort of proprietary value. Sign this NDA and you can participate with us." "I think nearly everyone I've spoken with has woken up to the fact that they are trying to commoditize everyone's business. If all of the tens of billions of dollars you have invested in experiments and product development, and you've generated all of this proprietary data along the way, that data is a true asset of your organization. It's an asset that you've spent billions of dollars developing." "And by handing it over to a model company to then combine with other people's data, you are commoditizing the one core differentiation that you have. And so everyone is largely saying no." "I think what everyone's realizing is they're better off developing their own weights and their own models using either an open source basis or there might be some intermediary business model that evolves."

286,036 görüntüleme • 21 gün önce

Bill Ackman explains why he bought 5% of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange with his wife "A couple months after October 7th, I got a call from Rich Handler from Jefferies. He says, Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. I said, well, we actually haven't invested in Israel before." "He said the most you can invest is 25 million. It's just hard in the context of Pershing Square to make a $25 million investment. He says, Bill, take the meeting. Fine. I met these guys and I thought, wow, this is pretty interesting." "I pitched the team and the team said, Bill, we can't make a $25 million investment because it's going to take time and energy. Doesn't fit into a 12 stock portfolio and $20 billion of assets." "So I said, you know what? I want to be supportive of Israel. What better way to support capitalism in Israel than investing in the exchange. The only due diligence I did was I met the team." "I had to get approval from my compliance officer. So I bought 5% with my wife of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange."

Bill Ackman explains why he bought 5% of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange with his wife "A couple months after October 7th, I got a call from Rich Handler from Jefferies. He says, Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. I said, well, we actually haven't invested in Israel before." "He said the most you can invest is 25 million. It's just hard in the context of Pershing Square to make a $25 million investment. He says, Bill, take the meeting. Fine. I met these guys and I thought, wow, this is pretty interesting." "I pitched the team and the team said, Bill, we can't make a $25 million investment because it's going to take time and energy. Doesn't fit into a 12 stock portfolio and $20 billion of assets." "So I said, you know what? I want to be supportive of Israel. What better way to support capitalism in Israel than investing in the exchange. The only due diligence I did was I met the team." "I had to get approval from my compliance officer. So I bought 5% with my wife of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange."

242,401 görüntüleme • 21 gün önce

Bill Ackman says Israel is Silicon Valley as a country and explains why he's bullish "I'm very bullish on Israel from an economic perspective. Imagine if Silicon Valley was a country. That's what Israel is." "You have this incredible density of talent and IP and IQ in a very small country. And you have now a generation of 24, 25, 28 year old people that went through a pretty brutal war. What happens when you go through that and you survive it, you develop grit. And also, the Israeli military is very technologically savvy." "All the top venture capital firms have opened offices in Israel. And the mistake Israeli entrepreneurs used to make was they would sell their companies when Google showed up and offered a hundred million or two hundred million. Now, Wiz sold to Google for $32 billion." "I think you're going to see a trillion-dollar company come out of Israel in the not too distant future. It'll probably be an AI company or a cybersecurity company. And the value of that company will be amortized over this relatively small economy, which means it's one of the best economies in the world."

Bill Ackman says Israel is Silicon Valley as a country and explains why he's bullish "I'm very bullish on Israel from an economic perspective. Imagine if Silicon Valley was a country. That's what Israel is." "You have this incredible density of talent and IP and IQ in a very small country. And you have now a generation of 24, 25, 28 year old people that went through a pretty brutal war. What happens when you go through that and you survive it, you develop grit. And also, the Israeli military is very technologically savvy." "All the top venture capital firms have opened offices in Israel. And the mistake Israeli entrepreneurs used to make was they would sell their companies when Google showed up and offered a hundred million or two hundred million. Now, Wiz sold to Google for $32 billion." "I think you're going to see a trillion-dollar company come out of Israel in the not too distant future. It'll probably be an AI company or a cybersecurity company. And the value of that company will be amortized over this relatively small economy, which means it's one of the best economies in the world."

202,950 görüntüleme • 20 gün önce

Chamath reveals that the real ROI of AI is just 0-2% for companies in the S&P 500 "The problem with enterprise revenue is that at some point, the person who's spending it has to see an ROI. I asked Fable, what is the lift of the S&P 500 earnings per share growth since 2024 from AI?" "Fable answered, oh it's 50%. Then I looked through it and I said well no, you're including the money that NVIDIA makes from selling chips." "I asked a different question; what was the EPS growth of the S&P 493? The answer was 9%. The overwhelming majority of that was from pricing power sitting on top of inflation, and then the other 3% was from buybacks." "So the answer, as far as all publicly available data shows, was that the actual ROI was somewhere between zero and 2%."

Chamath reveals that the real ROI of AI is just 0-2% for companies in the S&P 500 "The problem with enterprise revenue is that at some point, the person who's spending it has to see an ROI. I asked Fable, what is the lift of the S&P 500 earnings per share growth since 2024 from AI?" "Fable answered, oh it's 50%. Then I looked through it and I said well no, you're including the money that NVIDIA makes from selling chips." "I asked a different question; what was the EPS growth of the S&P 493? The answer was 9%. The overwhelming majority of that was from pricing power sitting on top of inflation, and then the other 3% was from buybacks." "So the answer, as far as all publicly available data shows, was that the actual ROI was somewhere between zero and 2%."

124,778 görüntüleme • 16 gün önce

David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."

David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."

110,354 görüntüleme • 15 gün önce

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