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DoctorDueDiligence

@DueDoctor • 12,268 subscribers

Come for the memes, stay to learn and Investment Takes. 100+ Free articles, never charged one cent. NFA. Commentary. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Shorts

>Be $HIMS CEO >literally make tens of millions from copying injectable form of GLP-1 >tee-hee >FDA not taking action because newbies >company basically printing money >decide to copy oral version >leave out SNAC so basically inert new drug/pbo >forces FDA to take action >uh-oh

>Be $HIMS CEO >literally make tens of millions from copying injectable form of GLP-1 >tee-hee >FDA not taking action because newbies >company basically printing money >decide to copy oral version >leave out SNAC so basically inert new drug/pbo >forces FDA to take action >uh-oh

131,034 görüntüleme

$PFE CFO says $10BN to $15BN for Biotech buyouts in 2025! Who are they buying? 🤔

$PFE CFO says $10BN to $15BN for Biotech buyouts in 2025! Who are they buying? 🤔

26,581 görüntüleme

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$MRNA thoughts 1. We knew already about this data working (no stop at IA, prev phase 2) see NEJM post I had before, it seems to be not only the data but also *tinfoil hat* a concentrated move against the 14% of outstanding shares that are short 2. It is a small TAM, but current valuation is treating it as if it is a go ahead with all PEM 3. Shorts will unwind but slowly, this fades short term unless boomers buy in for two or three days 4. I’ll go more into the science in the next post but Melanoma is one of the easiest, it is not a guarantee of working against all cancers but those which are “hot” aka the ones high PD-L1 expression already (not a small TAM to be clear) 5. The real question (and reason why I closed short before) is not what is the next catalyst but what the level of reaction will be (this reaction actually completely blew my mind, totally unexpected this level but it’s because Moderna went from Covid company to cancer company - someone should tell Bancel to stop bringing up Covid). The generalists bid this up more than the specialists (same for $MRK) because the numbers don’t work for it unless you’re factoring in more TAMs What do I expect to happen? Likely it is a short term fade, but as we have seen multiple times this past year sometimes more generalists pile in a day or two late so my plan is to wait and see if it settles, if it does then plan to short for short term. This will be a momentum short imo and the direction isn’t clear right now, it’s not based on the TAM it’s based on this drug will work on many many many cancers, and this is not necessarily the case although I do expect it to work on more cancers but not all cancers. I do think if shorted this AM in $160s you’re probably good, and wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop below $120 near term.

$MRNA thoughts 1. We knew already about this data working (no stop at IA, prev phase 2) see NEJM post I had before, it seems to be not only the data but also tinfoil hat a concentrated move against the 14% of outstanding shares that are short 2. It is a small TAM, but current valuation is treating it as if it is a go ahead with all PEM 3. Shorts will unwind but slowly, this fades short term unless boomers buy in for two or three days 4. I’ll go more into the science in the next post but Melanoma is one of the easiest, it is not a guarantee of working against all cancers but those which are “hot” aka the ones high PD-L1 expression already (not a small TAM to be clear) 5. The real question (and reason why I closed short before) is not what is the next catalyst but what the level of reaction will be (this reaction actually completely blew my mind, totally unexpected this level but it’s because Moderna went from Covid company to cancer company - someone should tell Bancel to stop bringing up Covid). The generalists bid this up more than the specialists (same for $MRK) because the numbers don’t work for it unless you’re factoring in more TAMs What do I expect to happen? Likely it is a short term fade, but as we have seen multiple times this past year sometimes more generalists pile in a day or two late so my plan is to wait and see if it settles, if it does then plan to short for short term. This will be a momentum short imo and the direction isn’t clear right now, it’s not based on the TAM it’s based on this drug will work on many many many cancers, and this is not necessarily the case although I do expect it to work on more cancers but not all cancers. I do think if shorted this AM in $160s you’re probably good, and wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop below $120 near term.

DoctorDueDiligence

42,511 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

$ABVX CEO Marc giggled after induction data Now he’s laughing and smiling when asked about M&A “Top 10 drug” “Pharma needs revenue” “Efficacy second to none”

$ABVX CEO Marc giggled after induction data Now he’s laughing and smiling when asked about M&A “Top 10 drug” “Pharma needs revenue” “Efficacy second to none”

DoctorDueDiligence

38,386 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

$MRK CEO signals wants and NEEDS to do deals, even in uncertain macro environment, willing to be aggressive for value. 2025 could get exciting for Biotech

$MRK CEO signals wants and NEEDS to do deals, even in uncertain macro environment, willing to be aggressive for value. 2025 could get exciting for Biotech

DoctorDueDiligence

90,123 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

$MRK CEO again says DEALS on the way, Keytruda LOE too big! Hints at Oncology... Who are they buying?

$MRK CEO again says DEALS on the way, Keytruda LOE too big! Hints at Oncology... Who are they buying?

DoctorDueDiligence

76,446 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

$PFE CEO said it's TIME TO BUY! Biotech prices are LOW! Who is Pfizer buying?

$PFE CEO said it's TIME TO BUY! Biotech prices are LOW! Who is Pfizer buying?

DoctorDueDiligence

43,612 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

$BMY CEO hinting at the BUYOUT deals they want 1. Want revenue 2027-2030 = possibly earlier stage assets 2. Has to be 1st or 2nd in *quality* in class 3. Disease State Strategy Overlap (I read as Onc/Heme, Immunology, Cardio, Neuroscience)

$BMY CEO hinting at the BUYOUT deals they want 1. Want revenue 2027-2030 = possibly earlier stage assets 2. Has to be 1st or 2nd in quality in class 3. Disease State Strategy Overlap (I read as Onc/Heme, Immunology, Cardio, Neuroscience)

DoctorDueDiligence

23,786 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

$SRPT analyst asking Does noted Elondys Critic Vinay Prasad MD MPH at CBER a worse case scenario for the drug? Will it be pulled? CEO response:

$SRPT analyst asking Does noted Elondys Critic Vinay Prasad MD MPH at CBER a worse case scenario for the drug? Will it be pulled? CEO response:

DoctorDueDiligence

17,358 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

3. Rare Disease (cited 15 and 72 patients worldwide for example) may get approval based on mechanism of action only - then track and follow patients to see if drug works.

3. Rare Disease (cited 15 and 72 patients worldwide for example) may get approval based on mechanism of action only - then track and follow patients to see if drug works.

DoctorDueDiligence

17,680 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce