
Excess Returns
@excessreturnpod • 4,268 subscribers
Where better questions lead to better decisions Ten shows dedicated to making you a better investor YouTube: https://t.co/pbf4lZ7t29
Videos

"That number is now accumulating to impact the largest US stocks by about eighteen percent a year." "Over fifty percent of Google's profits in this last quarter alone were tied directly to the price appreciation of its investment in Anthropic. People are putting a multiple on those gains. I mean, these are one-time gains." Mike Green on the impact of passive flows vs. fundamentals on the big tech stocks.
Excess Returns174,914 次观看 • 26 天前

“Growth, when it’s accompanied by huge amounts of reinvestment and substandard gross margins, might not just be neutral to value, but actually be value destructive.” Aswath Damodaran joined Kai Wu on The Intangible Economy to explain why the biggest stories in markets still have to become businesses. They discuss: ☑️ His detailed valuation of SpaceX and how it compares to the current market valuation ☑️ Why total addressable market can be a trap for investors ☑️ Why AI’s unit economics may matter more than the size of the opportunity ☑️ How growth can destroy value when it requires massive reinvestment ☑️ Why AI is turning parts of big tech from asset-light businesses into infrastructure companies ☑️ Why great companies can still be bad investments at the wrong price
Excess Returns135,825 次观看 • 21 天前

"I've seen 100 posts on how depreciation of AI CapEx is the big wild card. Come on, guys. If that's what you're focused on, you're missing the big picture. Depreciation for a young growth company is not even making my top 20 list of worries. Could it affect my cash flows? Yes. Is it going to affect the earnings? Absolutely. But this is not the big driver of whether AI is going to make it or not." Aswath Damodaran on why value investors need to stop looking for conspiracies.
Excess Returns57,106 次观看 • 16 天前

"I think honestly, every professional investor I know is suffering through a period of deep depression because there is just nothing you can actually say about what is happening other than, "Here we go again." "That's become the most interesting thing in markets right now, is this basic discussion around what sort of role should we expect passive to play? How should we expect it to impact it? It's a radical change from the discussion I was having a decade ago or even five years ago, which is people refusing to admit that indices had any impact whatsoever." Mike Green on the current investing environment and the acceptance of passive's impact.
Excess Returns34,902 次观看 • 15 天前

“Her portfolio has probably outperformed our fund by 500 basis points a year for almost 20 years. And you say, how's that possible? She doesn't own a single company that we don't own.” Chris Davis on how his mom outperformed him - and the investing lesson that comes from it.
Excess Returns91,510 次观看 • 2 个月前

"You can be pro-growth, like be optimistic. That's a different thing than saying, 'I think growth is gonna be higher than everybody else does.'" "I choose bonds because I could be wrong, and growth could be lower than anybody expects. In that case, bonds diversify. I choose commodities because they're pro-growth. I already own stocks, but I don't mind having something else that's pro-growth in my portfolio. I own gold because I want to be have a monetary debasement hedge." "Betting it all on growth is risky. Levering a diversified portfolio is less risky, and you can generate the same return." Andy Constan on the case for diversifying beyond stocks.
Excess Returns15,268 次观看 • 13 天前

"The best stock pickers in the world that he allocated to, they were right 49% of the time. Their hit rate was 49%. It's about a coin flip whether they're right or wrong on an individual investment." Even great investors are wrong almost as often as they are right. Ian Cassel on what Lee Freeman-Shor’s research showed about them.
Excess Returns28,962 次观看 • 2 个月前

"Two companies alone account for 50% of the earnings growth in the first quarter, Micron and Nvidia. Two companies. That's it. 50% of the earnings growth. And if you roll it forward to the full year of 2026, those two companies account for a third of the entirety of the earnings growth." Cameron Dawson on the narrow nature of S&P 500 earnings growth
Excess Returns31,361 次观看 • 2 个月前

“All we know is that we don't know.” Markets are pricing reacceleration. The data underneath is more nuanced. In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson explore positioning, liquidity, and why the headline may not be the whole story.
Excess Returns Podcast11,815 次观看 • 4 个月前
没有更多内容可加载