Firas Maksad
@FirasMaksad • 20,917 subscribers
Managing Director for Middle East & North Africa @EurasiaGroup; Associate Fellow @MiddleEastInst; views my own.
Videos
“We’re no longer interested in being an American satellite state. We are a regional middle power. We are a partner, even if the junior one.” (Arab Foreign Minister on background) America’s inability to bring war with #Iran to a decisive victory will further diminish US standing in the region. The alternative is not China, but greater local agency, as new regional coalitions seek greater leverage to compensate for an increasingly unreliable American partner. The full discussion PBS Nick Schifrin
Firas Maksad49,140 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen
• The GCC is over as a political entity, polarized with #UAE on one end of the spectrum, #Oman on the other. • For the first time ever, #Israel defended an Arab country, while despite much promise, #Egypt’s vaunted Air Force remained absent. • This, and the aftermath of the #Iran war, will feed further fragmentation, despite all Gulf countries being US allies attacked by Iran. More with Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad91,358 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
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NOW Our view from a #Lebanon wedding. Those aren’t fireworks from #Iran to #Israel 🚀🚀
Firas Maksad744,809 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten
Trump lumping the UAE together with Saudi & Qatar is an oversimplification & a pretext to backdown from unattractive military options. Saudi, coordinating closely with Pakistan, wants to midwife a diplomatic off-ramp. The risks on another round out-way the benefits for them. That much is clear. The UAE doesn’t seem to have reached that conclusion. Iran needs to be weakened further, as evidenced by ongoing intransigence, before they sign on to an acceptable deal. Even if/when Trump gets to a deal with Iran, GCC countries will be left to carry the burden on reaching difficult separate understandings with Tehran on drones, missiles and proxies. They are positioning to meet the day after challenge differently. Saudi is leveraging the emerging regional construct including Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt to deal collectively with the Iranian challenge. UAE is leveraging Israeli and American power. Reflecting on some of that with Becky Anderson earlier today.
Firas Maksad41,389 Aufrufe • vor 19 Tagen
Saudi - #Israel normalization is dead. Trump will proceed despite Bibi with the GCC, as he did on #Yemen ceasefire & negotiations with #Iran. Expecting big deals on president’s first foreign visit- including on issues key to US global dominance. More with the great Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad168,000 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
The fragile political construct in #Lebanon will not allow Netanyahu & Aoun to meet in the White House anytime soon. The ceasefire is set to come apart, as Hezbollah takes advantage of Trump publicly putting the cabash of Bibi. Hezbollah’s purposeful attacks on northern #Israel, not just occupation in the south, are a pressure cooker. ⏳💥 With Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad18,607 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
The message from Beirut: ▪️Current part war/part ceasefire benefiting #Iran, re-legitimizing Hezbollah ▪️Speaker Berri support for direct #Lebanon - #Israel talk in retreat as Hezbollah regains footing ▪️Trump - Aoun summit much more likely than one with Netanyahu ▪️Hezbollah’s disarmament will require regional understanding (#Saudi - Iran) translated locally via “new Taef.” Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad15,485 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
A ceasefire in #Lebanon will only come about as a result of a US-led process, not an #Iran precondition. The US pressed #Israel for deescalation, but a full ceasefire will become more likely after a US - Iran deal is achieved, not before. Washington is keen to see Beirut emerge from under Tehran’s shadow. This will be a lengthy and challenging process, but a worthy one nonetheless. Glad to discuss these issues and more with Bianna Golodryga Zain Asher
Firas Maksad17,319 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
An interceptor vs drone war doesn’t bode well for President Trump. Iran is low on missiles, but has some 80,000 drones & can manufacture more. To win, he needs to aggressively target production & delivery systems, and break #Iran’s will to fight ⏳ MS NOW Chris Jansing
Firas Maksad23,187 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
“Check your mineral table & let us know what you got,” senior US official to Saudi Arabia. There is no F-35 without critical minerals China weaponized against US. #Saudi securing mineral rights in Africa & processing is under appreciated aspect of MBS - Trump talks. Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad41,352 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten
Direct, high-level, talks is what #Lebanon is offering #Israel. Unprecedented. Here’s the catch. Its army is resisting government pressure to clampdown on Hezbollah. Lebanon will wait for Israel to degrade Hezbollah. For US to weaken #Iran. Maybe then it can act, not just talk. Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad19,174 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
The center of gravity of the #Iran conflict will shift further towards the GCC & away from #Israel in days ahead, with important implication for energy infrastructure. The USS Ford leaving the Mediterranean for the Gulf. Here’s why, in a conversation with Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad20,100 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
Progress in Geneva is limited & narrow. Support for striking #Iran is wall-to-wall in #Israel, across political spectrum, taking advantage of US military muscle to defend Israel. Whether it’s Israel-led, US-led, or Israel only, war remains the most likely outcome. w/ Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad18,671 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
Key risk ahead. Unless US does more to defend civilian & energy infrastructure in GCC, Arab voices will increasingly question if this was #Israel’s war, with #Saudi, #UAE, #Kuwait & #Qatar left with the bill. Full episode with Nick Schifrin PBS News:
Firas Maksad16,252 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten
This is an earthquake in the heart of the Middle East. What is happening in #Syria, won’t stay in Syria. But first/foremost, its a human moment for millions of Syrians, Lebanese & Palestinians the Ba’ath oppressed under mantra of freedom, unity & socialism. More CNN Omar Jimenez
Firas Maksad61,132 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr
US military action is NOT meant to bring about regime change in #Iran. Trump is looking for a deal, unlikely as it may be. The regime, however, is mortally wounded. It will be left to the Iranian people to eventually topple it. “The devil we know,” argument is loud in the region & beyond. Wide ranging discussion w/Carl Nasman BBC News (World)
Firas Maksad22,211 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten
Difficult for #Iran to proceed with ceasefire while abandoning Hezbollah to its fate in #Lebanon. #Israel’s decision to negotiate a ceasefire via the Lebanese government is clever. A ceasefire, but one empowering Beirut, not Tehran. Now will Iran accept & facilitate? Becky Anderson
Firas Maksad11,072 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat