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Firas Maksad

@FirasMaksad • 20,917 subscribers

Managing Director for Middle East & North Africa @EurasiaGroup; Associate Fellow @MiddleEastInst; views my own.

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A brave Lebanese journalist 🇱🇧 • You can’t film here • I have approval from Lebanese army • Show me proof • Who are you to ask me? • I am Hezbollah • Ya so what?

A brave Lebanese journalist 🇱🇧 • You can’t film here • I have approval from Lebanese army • Show me proof • Who are you to ask me? • I am Hezbollah • Ya so what?

2,208,581 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Deplorable. You raise your flag on others land and they will rally and resist until you leave. Israeli soldiers raise their flag in Maroun Al Ras, Lebanon 🇱🇧

Deplorable. You raise your flag on others land and they will rally and resist until you leave. Israeli soldiers raise their flag in Maroun Al Ras, Lebanon 🇱🇧

4,533,968 просмотров • 1 год назад

“We’re no longer interested in being an American satellite state. We are a regional middle power. We are a partner, even if the junior one.” (Arab Foreign Minister on background) America’s inability to bring war with #Iran to a decisive victory will further diminish US standing in the region. The alternative is not China, but greater local agency, as new regional coalitions seek greater leverage to compensate for an increasingly unreliable American partner. The full discussion PBS Nick Schifrin

“We’re no longer interested in being an American satellite state. We are a regional middle power. We are a partner, even if the junior one.” (Arab Foreign Minister on background) America’s inability to bring war with #Iran to a decisive victory will further diminish US standing in the region. The alternative is not China, but greater local agency, as new regional coalitions seek greater leverage to compensate for an increasingly unreliable American partner. The full discussion PBS Nick Schifrin

49,140 просмотров • 15 дней назад

• The GCC is over as a political entity, polarized with #UAE on one end of the spectrum, #Oman on the other. • For the first time ever, #Israel defended an Arab country, while despite much promise, #Egypt’s vaunted Air Force remained absent. • This, and the aftermath of the #Iran war, will feed further fragmentation, despite all Gulf countries being US allies attacked by Iran. More with Becky Anderson

• The GCC is over as a political entity, polarized with #UAE on one end of the spectrum, #Oman on the other. • For the first time ever, #Israel defended an Arab country, while despite much promise, #Egypt’s vaunted Air Force remained absent. • This, and the aftermath of the #Iran war, will feed further fragmentation, despite all Gulf countries being US allies attacked by Iran. More with Becky Anderson

91,358 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

NOW Our view from a #Lebanon wedding. Those aren’t fireworks from #Iran to #Israel 🚀🚀

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NOW Our view from a #Lebanon wedding. Those aren’t fireworks from #Iran to #Israel 🚀🚀

744,809 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

Trump lumping the UAE together with Saudi & Qatar is an oversimplification & a pretext to backdown from unattractive military options. Saudi, coordinating closely with Pakistan, wants to midwife a diplomatic off-ramp. The risks on another round out-way the benefits for them. That much is clear. The UAE doesn’t seem to have reached that conclusion. Iran needs to be weakened further, as evidenced by ongoing intransigence, before they sign on to an acceptable deal. Even if/when Trump gets to a deal with Iran, GCC countries will be left to carry the burden on reaching difficult separate understandings with Tehran on drones, missiles and proxies. They are positioning to meet the day after challenge differently. Saudi is leveraging the emerging regional construct including Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt to deal collectively with the Iranian challenge. UAE is leveraging Israeli and American power. Reflecting on some of that with Becky Anderson earlier today.

Trump lumping the UAE together with Saudi & Qatar is an oversimplification & a pretext to backdown from unattractive military options. Saudi, coordinating closely with Pakistan, wants to midwife a diplomatic off-ramp. The risks on another round out-way the benefits for them. That much is clear. The UAE doesn’t seem to have reached that conclusion. Iran needs to be weakened further, as evidenced by ongoing intransigence, before they sign on to an acceptable deal. Even if/when Trump gets to a deal with Iran, GCC countries will be left to carry the burden on reaching difficult separate understandings with Tehran on drones, missiles and proxies. They are positioning to meet the day after challenge differently. Saudi is leveraging the emerging regional construct including Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt to deal collectively with the Iranian challenge. UAE is leveraging Israeli and American power. Reflecting on some of that with Becky Anderson earlier today.

41,389 просмотров • 19 дней назад

Saudi - #Israel normalization is dead. Trump will proceed despite Bibi with the GCC, as he did on #Yemen ceasefire & negotiations with #Iran. Expecting big deals on president’s first foreign visit- including on issues key to US global dominance. More with the great Becky Anderson

Saudi - #Israel normalization is dead. Trump will proceed despite Bibi with the GCC, as he did on #Yemen ceasefire & negotiations with #Iran. Expecting big deals on president’s first foreign visit- including on issues key to US global dominance. More with the great Becky Anderson

168,000 просмотров • 1 год назад

This is what remains of the South Beirut apartment of the woman who helped raise me. She & her family were never affilaited with Hezbollah. In fact, they were once openly opposed. She now has no where to go. Real lives. Real people. Real heartbreak ❤️‍🩹

This is what remains of the South Beirut apartment of the woman who helped raise me. She & her family were never affilaited with Hezbollah. In fact, they were once openly opposed. She now has no where to go. Real lives. Real people. Real heartbreak ❤️‍🩹

205,060 просмотров • 1 год назад

The fragile political construct in #Lebanon will not allow Netanyahu & Aoun to meet in the White House anytime soon. The ceasefire is set to come apart, as Hezbollah takes advantage of Trump publicly putting the cabash of Bibi. Hezbollah’s purposeful attacks on northern #Israel, not just occupation in the south, are a pressure cooker. ⏳💥 With Becky Anderson

The fragile political construct in #Lebanon will not allow Netanyahu & Aoun to meet in the White House anytime soon. The ceasefire is set to come apart, as Hezbollah takes advantage of Trump publicly putting the cabash of Bibi. Hezbollah’s purposeful attacks on northern #Israel, not just occupation in the south, are a pressure cooker. ⏳💥 With Becky Anderson

18,607 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The message from Beirut: ▪️Current part war/part ceasefire benefiting #Iran, re-legitimizing Hezbollah ▪️Speaker Berri support for direct #Lebanon - #Israel talk in retreat as Hezbollah regains footing ▪️Trump - Aoun summit much more likely than one with Netanyahu ▪️Hezbollah’s disarmament will require regional understanding (#Saudi - Iran) translated locally via “new Taef.” Becky Anderson

The message from Beirut: ▪️Current part war/part ceasefire benefiting #Iran, re-legitimizing Hezbollah ▪️Speaker Berri support for direct #Lebanon - #Israel talk in retreat as Hezbollah regains footing ▪️Trump - Aoun summit much more likely than one with Netanyahu ▪️Hezbollah’s disarmament will require regional understanding (#Saudi - Iran) translated locally via “new Taef.” Becky Anderson

15,485 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

A ceasefire in #Lebanon will only come about as a result of a US-led process, not an #Iran precondition. The US pressed #Israel for deescalation, but a full ceasefire will become more likely after a US - Iran deal is achieved, not before. Washington is keen to see Beirut emerge from under Tehran’s shadow. This will be a lengthy and challenging process, but a worthy one nonetheless. Glad to discuss these issues and more with Bianna Golodryga Zain Asher

A ceasefire in #Lebanon will only come about as a result of a US-led process, not an #Iran precondition. The US pressed #Israel for deescalation, but a full ceasefire will become more likely after a US - Iran deal is achieved, not before. Washington is keen to see Beirut emerge from under Tehran’s shadow. This will be a lengthy and challenging process, but a worthy one nonetheless. Glad to discuss these issues and more with Bianna Golodryga Zain Asher

17,319 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

An interceptor vs drone war doesn’t bode well for President Trump. Iran is low on missiles, but has some 80,000 drones & can manufacture more. To win, he needs to aggressively target production & delivery systems, and break #Iran’s will to fight ⏳ MS NOW Chris Jansing

An interceptor vs drone war doesn’t bode well for President Trump. Iran is low on missiles, but has some 80,000 drones & can manufacture more. To win, he needs to aggressively target production & delivery systems, and break #Iran’s will to fight ⏳ MS NOW Chris Jansing

23,187 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

“Check your mineral table & let us know what you got,” senior US official to Saudi Arabia. There is no F-35 without critical minerals China weaponized against US. #Saudi securing mineral rights in Africa & processing is under appreciated aspect of MBS - Trump talks. Becky Anderson

“Check your mineral table & let us know what you got,” senior US official to Saudi Arabia. There is no F-35 without critical minerals China weaponized against US. #Saudi securing mineral rights in Africa & processing is under appreciated aspect of MBS - Trump talks. Becky Anderson

41,352 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Direct, high-level, talks is what #Lebanon is offering #Israel. Unprecedented. Here’s the catch. Its army is resisting government pressure to clampdown on Hezbollah. Lebanon will wait for Israel to degrade Hezbollah. For US to weaken #Iran. Maybe then it can act, not just talk. Becky Anderson

Direct, high-level, talks is what #Lebanon is offering #Israel. Unprecedented. Here’s the catch. Its army is resisting government pressure to clampdown on Hezbollah. Lebanon will wait for Israel to degrade Hezbollah. For US to weaken #Iran. Maybe then it can act, not just talk. Becky Anderson

19,174 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

The center of gravity of the #Iran conflict will shift further towards the GCC & away from #Israel in days ahead, with important implication for energy infrastructure. The USS Ford leaving the Mediterranean for the Gulf. Here’s why, in a conversation with Becky Anderson

The center of gravity of the #Iran conflict will shift further towards the GCC & away from #Israel in days ahead, with important implication for energy infrastructure. The USS Ford leaving the Mediterranean for the Gulf. Here’s why, in a conversation with Becky Anderson

20,100 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Progress in Geneva is limited & narrow. Support for striking #Iran is wall-to-wall in #Israel, across political spectrum, taking advantage of US military muscle to defend Israel. Whether it’s Israel-led, US-led, or Israel only, war remains the most likely outcome. w/ Becky Anderson

Progress in Geneva is limited & narrow. Support for striking #Iran is wall-to-wall in #Israel, across political spectrum, taking advantage of US military muscle to defend Israel. Whether it’s Israel-led, US-led, or Israel only, war remains the most likely outcome. w/ Becky Anderson

18,671 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Key risk ahead. Unless US does more to defend civilian & energy infrastructure in GCC, Arab voices will increasingly question if this was #Israel’s war, with #Saudi, #UAE, #Kuwait & #Qatar left with the bill. Full episode with Nick Schifrin PBS News:

Key risk ahead. Unless US does more to defend civilian & energy infrastructure in GCC, Arab voices will increasingly question if this was #Israel’s war, with #Saudi, #UAE, #Kuwait & #Qatar left with the bill. Full episode with Nick Schifrin PBS News:

16,252 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

This is an earthquake in the heart of the Middle East. What is happening in #Syria, won’t stay in Syria. But first/foremost, its a human moment for millions of Syrians, Lebanese & Palestinians the Ba’ath oppressed under mantra of freedom, unity & socialism. More CNN Omar Jimenez

This is an earthquake in the heart of the Middle East. What is happening in #Syria, won’t stay in Syria. But first/foremost, its a human moment for millions of Syrians, Lebanese & Palestinians the Ba’ath oppressed under mantra of freedom, unity & socialism. More CNN Omar Jimenez

61,132 просмотров • 1 год назад

US military action is NOT meant to bring about regime change in #Iran. Trump is looking for a deal, unlikely as it may be. The regime, however, is mortally wounded. It will be left to the Iranian people to eventually topple it. “The devil we know,” argument is loud in the region & beyond. Wide ranging discussion w/Carl Nasman BBC News (World)

US military action is NOT meant to bring about regime change in #Iran. Trump is looking for a deal, unlikely as it may be. The regime, however, is mortally wounded. It will be left to the Iranian people to eventually topple it. “The devil we know,” argument is loud in the region & beyond. Wide ranging discussion w/Carl Nasman BBC News (World)

22,211 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Difficult for #Iran to proceed with ceasefire while abandoning Hezbollah to its fate in #Lebanon. #Israel’s decision to negotiate a ceasefire via the Lebanese government is clever. A ceasefire, but one empowering Beirut, not Tehran. Now will Iran accept & facilitate? Becky Anderson

Difficult for #Iran to proceed with ceasefire while abandoning Hezbollah to its fate in #Lebanon. #Israel’s decision to negotiate a ceasefire via the Lebanese government is clever. A ceasefire, but one empowering Beirut, not Tehran. Now will Iran accept & facilitate? Becky Anderson

11,072 просмотров • 1 месяц назад