tae kim
@firstadopter • 106,219 subscribers
"Key Context" Substack covering AI and chips. Reached #1 new bestseller first 24 hrs Subscribe https://t.co/3N2fHOXQfL "Be so good they can't ignore you"
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![Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says don't listen to CEOs with a god complex on AI (lol, Dario) $NVDA On AI destroying jobs: "these kind of comments are not helpful .. somehow they became CEOs, you adopt a god complex and before you know it, you know everything" "ground ourselves to talking about the facts" AI will "generate hundreds of thousands of jobs .. trillions of dollars [to the U.S. economy]"](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2050225746753331562/amplify_video_thumb/2050222712988090368/img/aN3lIIzWBRc5kB62.jpg)
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says don't listen to CEOs with a god complex on AI (lol, Dario) $NVDA On AI destroying jobs: "these kind of comments are not helpful .. somehow they became CEOs, you adopt a god complex and before you know it, you know everything" "ground ourselves to talking about the facts" AI will "generate hundreds of thousands of jobs .. trillions of dollars [to the U.S. economy]"
tae kim1,215,951 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад
![Sergey Brin on AI and Jeff Dean back in December when Gemini peaked: “I would say in some ways we for sure messed up in that we underinvested and sort of didn't take it as seriously as we should have, say, eight years ago when we published the Transformer paper. We actually didn't take it all that seriously and didn't necessarily invest in scaling the compute. And also we were too scared to bring it to people because chatbots say dumb things. And, you know, OpenAI ran with it, which is good for them. It was a super smart insight, and it was also our people like Ilya who went there to do that. But I do think we still have benefited from that long history. So we had a lot of the research and development of neural networks kind of going back to Google Brain. That was also kind of lucky. It wasn't luck that we hired Jeff Dean. I mean, we were lucky to get him. But we were in this sort of mindset that deep technical things matter. And so we hired him. We hired a lot of people from DEC, honestly, because they had the top research labs at the time. But he [Jeff Dean] was passionate about neural networks. And it stemmed, I think, from actually his college experiment. I don't know. He was like, whatever, curing third world disease and figuring out neural networks when he was like 16. He's done crazy things. But he was passionate about it. He built up a whole effort. And actually in my division at the time in Google X. We had him but I didn't I was like okay Jeff you do whatever you want. He's like oh we can tell cats from dogs. I'm like oh okay cool. But you know, you also trust your technical people and soon enough they were developing all these algorithms these neural nets that were doing some of our search. And then, you know, Noam came up with a transformer and we were able to do more and more. But yeah, I mean, so we had the underpinnings, we had the R&D. We did underinvest for a number of years and didn't take it as seriously as we should have.” Both Jeff Dean and Noam Shazeer left Google in the past two months.](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2086102523207684101/amplify_video_thumb/2086102131451232256/img/zwjuyTlmBay1CluH.jpg)
Sergey Brin on AI and Jeff Dean back in December when Gemini peaked: “I would say in some ways we for sure messed up in that we underinvested and sort of didn't take it as seriously as we should have, say, eight years ago when we published the Transformer paper. We actually didn't take it all that seriously and didn't necessarily invest in scaling the compute. And also we were too scared to bring it to people because chatbots say dumb things. And, you know, OpenAI ran with it, which is good for them. It was a super smart insight, and it was also our people like Ilya who went there to do that. But I do think we still have benefited from that long history. So we had a lot of the research and development of neural networks kind of going back to Google Brain. That was also kind of lucky. It wasn't luck that we hired Jeff Dean. I mean, we were lucky to get him. But we were in this sort of mindset that deep technical things matter. And so we hired him. We hired a lot of people from DEC, honestly, because they had the top research labs at the time. But he [Jeff Dean] was passionate about neural networks. And it stemmed, I think, from actually his college experiment. I don't know. He was like, whatever, curing third world disease and figuring out neural networks when he was like 16. He's done crazy things. But he was passionate about it. He built up a whole effort. And actually in my division at the time in Google X. We had him but I didn't I was like okay Jeff you do whatever you want. He's like oh we can tell cats from dogs. I'm like oh okay cool. But you know, you also trust your technical people and soon enough they were developing all these algorithms these neural nets that were doing some of our search. And then, you know, Noam came up with a transformer and we were able to do more and more. But yeah, I mean, so we had the underpinnings, we had the R&D. We did underinvest for a number of years and didn't take it as seriously as we should have.” Both Jeff Dean and Noam Shazeer left Google in the past two months.
tae kim249,117 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
How can OpenAI with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments? (Source: Bg2 Pod ) Sam Altman: “First of all. We’re doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. I just, enough. I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares. I think people who talk with a lot of breathless concern about our compute stuff or whatever, that would be thrilled to buy shares. So I think we could sell your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who are making the most noise on Twitter about this very quickly. We do plan for revenue to grow steeply. Revenue is growing steeply. We are taking a forward bet that it's going to continue to grow and that not only will ChatGPT keep growing, but we will be able to become one of the important AI clouds, that our consumer device business will be a significant and important thing, that AI that can automate science will create huge value. There are not many times that I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous OpenAI is about to go out of business. I would love to tell them they could just short the stock, and I would love to see them get burned on that. But we carefully plan. We understand where the technology, where the capability is going to grow and how the products we can build around that and the revenue we can generate. We might screw it up. This is the bet that we're making and we're taking a risk along with that. A certain risk is if we don't have the compute, we will not be able to generate the revenue or make the models at this kind of scale.” Satya Nadella: “And let me just say one thing as both a partner and an investor. There is not been a single business plan that I've seen from OpenAI that they've put in and not beaten it. So in some sense, this is the one place where in terms of their growth and just even the business, it's been unbelievable execution, quite frankly. I mean, obviously, OpenAI, everyone talks about all the success and the usage and what have you. But even I'd say all up, the business execution has been just pretty unbelievable.”
tae kim1,566,511 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад
"No HBM for you. I need HBM" - Jensen Fact check. True. $NVDA
tae kim366,536 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
This made me laugh. 25 year-old professional podcaster Dwarkesh Patel : I don't get it. If I were you and had country-of-geniuses-level AI, I'd be happy to buy $5 trillion of compute! Dario, founder of a $380B AI model company growing at 10X per year: Bro! $300 billion of compute per year in two years is a lot, OK? It's a lot! We don't want to go bankrupt if our forecasts are off by a year.
tae kim589,852 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
Look at the expression on Jensen’s face when a reporter asks if TSMC is going to make enough wafers for Nvidia this year. I'm not a CIA body language expert, but GOOD LUCK to da bears. $NVDA Reporter: "Jensen will TSMC be supplying enough for you guys this year?" Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: "TSMC needs to work very hard this year because I need a lot of wafers and CoWoS this year. ... So TSMC is doing an incredible job and they're working very, very hard. We have a lot of demand this year."
tae kim403,715 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
Here's my full TBPN interview from yesterday, where I explain why AI chip stocks are going to soar over the next 6–9 months due to the imminent RSI advances from OpenAI and Anthropic. RSI will drive a dramatic increase in AI model capabilities, which will consume exponentially more compute. Much of the recent FUD handwringing is misplaced, just like DeepSeek last year, especially when we're about to go vertical from RSI. Note: I was last on TBPN on March 30th, where I pitched CPU and HBM memory stocks on the agentic AI megatrend. They more than doubled in the months that followed.
tae kim47,184 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
![Kevin Warsh on what he's going to the Federal Reserve's $6 trillion+ balance sheet. He's going to slash it. QE to QT. Bad news for trading sardine speculative assets like Bitcoin. QE has led to wealth inequality and the great inflation: "One of the consequences of this institutional drift [QE] is the inflation that we've witnessed over the course of the last five years .. 52% of our fellow Americans own no financial assets. .. They're living off their W-2 income and this surge in prices have destroyed them. It's the most regressive tax any government could ever come up with. Imagine if we had a central bank that had been deadly focused on that. I think we wouldn't have taken a divided country and made it more divided. When we have a big balance sheet, we're asking for the inflation that came." "My recommendation is a smaller balance sheet. Takes the Fed back to a more manageable size, more serious job." "I would say it is trillions larger than it needs to be."](https://image.24vids.com/tw-2018132908276437156/amplify_video_thumb/2018132659017318400/img/VohrrU95yA83PaMo.jpg)
Kevin Warsh on what he's going to the Federal Reserve's $6 trillion+ balance sheet. He's going to slash it. QE to QT. Bad news for trading sardine speculative assets like Bitcoin. QE has led to wealth inequality and the great inflation: "One of the consequences of this institutional drift [QE] is the inflation that we've witnessed over the course of the last five years .. 52% of our fellow Americans own no financial assets. .. They're living off their W-2 income and this surge in prices have destroyed them. It's the most regressive tax any government could ever come up with. Imagine if we had a central bank that had been deadly focused on that. I think we wouldn't have taken a divided country and made it more divided. When we have a big balance sheet, we're asking for the inflation that came." "My recommendation is a smaller balance sheet. Takes the Fed back to a more manageable size, more serious job." "I would say it is trillions larger than it needs to be."
tae kim147,326 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
Jensen is pushing back on the AI will kill all software narrative just like he pushed back last year on the DeepSeek panic. He was right then. He will be right again. "There's this notion that .. the software industry is in decline and will be replaced by AI. You could tell because there's a whole bunch of software companies whose stock prices are under a lot of pressure. Because somehow AI is going to replace them. It is the most illogical thing in the world and time will prove itself. .. If you were an artificial general intelligence, would you use the tools like ServiceNow and SAP and Cadence and Synopsys? Or would you reinvent a calculator? Of course, you would just use a calculator."
tae kim112,469 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
Kevin Warsh hates QE. It is crystal clear. He quit the Fed over QE2. He’s going to slash the Fed’s balance sheet. “QE sort of took off without us. And what did we say then? We debated internally whether to do this. And the story goes something like this. Secretary Paulson, he's issuing bonds on Monday and Tuesday. What do you say we buy them on Thursday and Friday? And I don't believe in betraying the confidences of those that were sitting around table, but I recall one person saying, well that sounds like a Ponzi scheme.” “You're cleansing my biography, and I should be grateful. I resigned when QE2 was launched.”
tae kim101,486 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
When asked about report that Jensen is “not happy” with OpenAI: “That's nonsense. That's complete nonsense. We are going to make a huge investment in OpenAI” - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang $NVDA “I really love working with Sam” “We haven’t made the investment in them because they're closing their round. But we will definitely be involved in their next round.” “We will invest a great deal of money. Probably the largest investment we've ever made.”
tae kim85,627 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
![TSMC CEO C.C. Wei: “[Jensen] asked for wafers!” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: “Yes, business is very strong and it’s growing month by month, stronger and stronger” Even the vibes-based chirpy peanut gallery has to admit this a good sign for AI fundies, no?](https://image.24vids.com/tw-1987177510824448217/amplify_video_thumb/1987176143376551936/img/C6n33nx98XlcIbZi.jpg)
I was on CNBC yesterday to debate Nvidia GPUs vs. Google TPUs. It was a blast. Thank you CNBC and Kelly Evans for having me on again.
tae kim62,339 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад
AI leaders need to talk more about the incredible positive upside of AI, not the conflated downsides (yes, I'm looking at you Dario). $GOOGL $NVDA THANK YOU to Google's Amin Vahdat and Jeff Dean for their inspiring visions on what AI will enable. The video clip below is a MUST WATCH. Also: “No matter what, it’s going to take a lot of compute” It would be the dumbest thing ever to overregulate and cripple AI progress based on false, misleading AI doomer narratives.
tae kim24,578 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад