(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten • 227,596 subscribers

Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories. https://t.co/9MdpDsMxJd

Live Cam

(((Harry Enten)))

Shorts

My reaction to the snow...

Videos

Watch Anya Live

Despite all the talk of climate change, voters, simply put, don't care. Climate ranks 14th on list of top issue for the midterm vote (at 3%). Those who say it's a very big problem is the same as in 2016 (~40%). Not even a majority agree humans cause any climate change.

Non-college voters, the base of the MAGA movement, are abandoning the GOP. MAGA's net favorability is -22 pts (down 28 pts) with them. Trump's now at -19 pt net approval with them. Dems actually lead in the race for Congress with them. This is what blue waves are built on.

Dems' chances in Mich Senate are down dramatically since earlier this year. On Tuesday, El-Sayed showed little working class appeal (e.g. lost all 15 counties with lowest % of coll. degrees). The big polling miss makes me wonder: will general election polls overestimate him?

This is the best polling Texas Dems have had in a Senate race this century. Talarico's chances are very real. He's polling ~10 pts better than O'Rourke (2018) was at this pt. Paxton's net favorable is ~15 pts lower than Cruz was (2018). Trump's much less popular than in 2018.

El-Sayed is a huge favorite to deliver the biggest blow to the Dem establishment so far. What's it mean? Most Dems (57%) want at least major changes in their party (vs. 33% in 2022). Dem party energy is on the left with 80% of very liberals extremely motivated to vote in 2026.

The LA mayor stuff is the dumbest conspiracy theory I've ever heard &amp; makes no sense. Dem establishment/Bass wanted Pratt, not Raman, to advance. Bass crushes Pratt in a 1-on-1 by 18 pt, while Raman beat Bass by 4. Pratt's the rarity in LA less popular than the unpopular Bass!

In a word, "yikes": Trump's moderate GOP support is collapsing. He led them by 69 pt vs Harris in 2024. His net approval now is +10 pt. A 59 pt shift. He was more trusted vs Harris on the economy by 80 pt. Net approval now? +3 pt. A 77 pt shift! On inflation, he's at -17 pt!

Tucker Carlson has been in absolute free fall among the GOP. His net favorable has dropped by 47 points. Meanwhile, Trump crushes Tucker among the GOP. Trump's net favorable is 54 pts higher than Carlson's. When you up against Trump, you in the grinder to quote Good Burger.

What happened in NYC tonight represents a larger trend among Dems... 1. Dem Socialists (+17 pt net fav) are more popular than Dems in Congress (+4 pt net fav) with Dems. 2. Socialism's popularity with Dems is way up in the last 15 years &amp; is far more popular than capitalism.

John Fetterman's had a 108 pt drop in his net approval with PA Dems since 2023. His net rating is -40 pt net approval with them. His net popularity with his own party is worse than all senators who lost a primary this century. There's no historical analog to his unpopularity.

The Dems midterm warning sign is pretty clear: There are high quality polls (Ipsos, MU Law, &amp; NBC), which show Dems shy of their generic ballot benchmark in past wave years. Their Dems avg. lead is just 3 pts... &amp; Dems need a 3-4 pt win to take the House given redistricting.

Trump's not the only one who gets the vapors around Mamdani. Mamdani's net favorable rating is up to +48 pts in NYC (up from +14 in Sept). Mamdani's the most popular Dem statewide in NY too. GOP had wanted to run against Mamdani in the midterms, but they can't right now.

Well it's official: the final polls of 2024 project out an electoral map that is the closest since at least 1972 with the leader (Harris) getting 270 electoral votes. The polls were tight at the end of 2000 too, but final map projected by the final polls was Gore at 281 votes.

Voters are with Trump when comes to needing a photo id to vote (77%)... with a clear majority of Dems, indies, and GOP for it. Americans are also with Trump in supporting a document proving citizenship to vote (54%). This includes the plurality of independents.

Trump's GOP is holding on to the generational gains they made with Black voters in the 2024 election. The GOP has gained 12 pts on the Dems on party id with African Americans vs. Trump term 1 at this point. Trump's approval with Black voters is higher than it was in term 1.

The big problem with these UFC fights for Trump is that they reinforce the idea that he's is out of touch with Americans. Just 16% say these fights are appropriate. Even just 31% of the GOP do. This comes as 60% of voters &amp; 80% of indies say the White House is out of touch.

Right now, Dems have a math problem in taking back the Senate. They need a net pickup of 4 seats &amp; lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP ahead. Problem is the fundamentals.... Median of key 6 states: GOP with +6 on generic ballot. 53% say Dem party too far left.

Talarico winning in Texas is no fantasy. He's polling better than any Dem Senate nominee at this point since 2002. Unlike O'Rourke in 2018, Talarico's ahead now. Paxton's much less popular than Cruz was. Trump is less popular now than in 2018. The GOP is right to be scared.

Trump's numbers on inflation aren't just the worst for him ever. They're the worst I've seen for any president. They're worse than Biden's worst &amp; worse than Carter's pre-1980 election. On the cost of living, just 9% of indies &amp; 39% (!) of the GOP say we're on the right track.

Trump's not on planet Earth if he thinks the real polls show him in a good position. It's the worst position he's been in term 2 (-21 pts net approval) &amp; on a steady slide down. He's the Cal Ripken of negative net approvals (494 days in a row where all polls have him negative)

The LA mayor stuff is the dumbest conspiracy theory I've ever heard & makes no sense. Dem establishment/Bass wanted Pratt, not Raman, to advance. Bass crushes Pratt in a 1-on-1 by 18 pt, while Raman beat Bass by 4. Pratt's the rarity in LA less popular than the unpopular Bass!

What happened in NYC tonight represents a larger trend among Dems... 1. Dem Socialists (+17 pt net fav) are more popular than Dems in Congress (+4 pt net fav) with Dems. 2. Socialism's popularity with Dems is way up in the last 15 years & is far more popular than capitalism.

The Dems midterm warning sign is pretty clear: There are high quality polls (Ipsos, MU Law, & NBC), which show Dems shy of their generic ballot benchmark in past wave years. Their Dems avg. lead is just 3 pts... & Dems need a 3-4 pt win to take the House given redistricting.

The big problem with these UFC fights for Trump is that they reinforce the idea that he's is out of touch with Americans. Just 16% say these fights are appropriate. Even just 31% of the GOP do. This comes as 60% of voters & 80% of indies say the White House is out of touch.

Right now, Dems have a math problem in taking back the Senate. They need a net pickup of 4 seats & lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP ahead. Problem is the fundamentals.... Median of key 6 states: GOP with +6 on generic ballot. 53% say Dem party too far left.

Trump's numbers on inflation aren't just the worst for him ever. They're the worst I've seen for any president. They're worse than Biden's worst & worse than Carter's pre-1980 election. On the cost of living, just 9% of indies & 39% (!) of the GOP say we're on the right track.

Trump's not on planet Earth if he thinks the real polls show him in a good position. It's the worst position he's been in term 2 (-21 pts net approval) & on a steady slide down. He's the Cal Ripken of negative net approvals (494 days in a row where all polls have him negative)