(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten • 231,819 subscribers
Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. CNN’s Chief Data Analyst. Go Bills.
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The data to me says that if anything the issue of Israel is helpful to El-Sayed in Michigan. He does better among voters who say it's extremely impt to their vote than overall. Most Mich voters & indies want military aid ended or reduced to Israel. AIPAC is deeply unpopular.
(((Harry Enten)))666,469 просмотров • 19 дней назад
Ton of copium was being drunk by Trump & some GOP leaders pre-election. Polls showed Dems were favored to win the Senate with room to spare. Many polls showed a 10+ pt win for the Dems in the national house vote. Polls had Trump as the most unpopular prez ever pre-midterm.
(((Harry Enten)))107,602 просмотров • 5 дней назад
We'll see, but the polls out of Texas are earthquake stuff. No TX Dem has polled as well as Talarico at the end of a Senate campaign since 1988. No TX GOP Sen nominee in the 2000s has been as unpopular as Paxton. Trump's the most unpopular GOP pres pre-midterm in the 2000s.
(((Harry Enten)))313,786 просмотров • 17 дней назад
A bright spot for the GOP... In the state (NY) with the most Jewish voters, the GOP has historically strong midterm polling with them. Hochul's polling 38 pts worse among them than in 2022. On the House ballot, Dems are doing 36 pts worse. Mamdani's image is well underwater.
(((Harry Enten)))575,841 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Tuesday was a mandate for Dems. See House vote. It was wide. (Shift to Dems in all 50 states vs. 2024.) It was deep. (Shift was 14 pts in avg. state.) It was historic. (Largest House vote margin 50 years?) Democrats won the House vote in states with 399 electoral votes.
(((Harry Enten)))102,478 просмотров • 10 дней назад
The LA mayor stuff is the dumbest conspiracy theory I've ever heard & makes no sense. Dem establishment/Bass wanted Pratt, not Raman, to advance. Bass crushes Pratt in a 1-on-1 by 18 pt, while Raman beat Bass by 4. Pratt's the rarity in LA less popular than the unpopular Bass!
(((Harry Enten)))2,037,587 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
Well it's official: the final polls of 2024 project out an electoral map that is the closest since at least 1972 with the leader (Harris) getting 270 electoral votes. The polls were tight at the end of 2000 too, but final map projected by the final polls was Gore at 281 votes.
(((Harry Enten)))9,315,072 просмотров • 2 лет назад
Dems have had a lot of very good polls from Iowa, Mich & Ohio. But are polls underestimating the GOP again? In all 3 states, GOP did better by 5+ pt in 2024 than polls had at this point. Same thing in Trump's 1st midterm. Same happens in 2026? GOP probably holds the Senate.
(((Harry Enten)))452,873 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Tucker Carlson has been in absolute free fall among the GOP. His net favorable has dropped by 47 points. Meanwhile, Trump crushes Tucker among the GOP. Trump's net favorable is 54 pts higher than Carlson's. When you up against Trump, you in the grinder to quote Good Burger.
(((Harry Enten)))2,280,096 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
Non-college voters, the base of the MAGA movement, are abandoning the GOP. MAGA's net favorability is -22 pts (down 28 pts) with them. Trump's now at -19 pt net approval with them. Dems actually lead in the race for Congress with them. This is what blue waves are built on.
(((Harry Enten)))974,550 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
John Fetterman's had a 108 pt drop in his net approval with PA Dems since 2023. His net rating is -40 pt net approval with them. His net popularity with his own party is worse than all senators who lost a primary this century. There's no historical analog to his unpopularity.
(((Harry Enten)))2,438,727 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад
Trump's not the only one who gets the vapors around Mamdani. Mamdani's net favorable rating is up to +48 pts in NYC (up from +14 in Sept). Mamdani's the most popular Dem statewide in NY too. GOP had wanted to run against Mamdani in the midterms, but they can't right now.
(((Harry Enten)))2,520,907 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад
The GOP shouldn't be counting on a poll miss to win the Senate (though it's possible!). Dems have actually been slightly more likely to outperform the polls in close Senate races since 1998. Same in 2018 (Trump's 1st midterm) & Dems outperformed in all 2022 close races.
(((Harry Enten)))146,900 просмотров • 20 дней назад
Should note the GOP is in its best position on party registration (i.e. not polls) going into a midterm in 20+ years. In total, the Dems have not gained ground since 2024 in key swing states (AZ, NV, NC, or PA). The GOP has gained big ground since Trump's 1st midterm in all 4.
(((Harry Enten)))293,593 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
JD Vance is making history as the least liked VP nominee (non-incumbent) since 1980 following his/her party's convention. He's the first to have a net negative favorable rating. Not surprising given how weak he ran in Ohio in 2022. Far worse than the average Ohio Republican.
(((Harry Enten)))7,242,548 просмотров • 2 лет назад
It's amazing how Florida has basically been taken off the board for the Democrats. Yes, it's the Senate election this year... But the GOP has been winning all the major races. The GOP now has an 11 pt edge in party registration... in a state quickly gaining population!
(((Harry Enten)))615,253 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Despite all the talk of climate change, voters, simply put, don't care. Climate ranks 14th on list of top issue for the midterm vote (at 3%). Those who say it's a very big problem is the same as in 2016 (~40%). Not even a majority agree humans cause any climate change.
(((Harry Enten)))678,218 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
By my count, the Texas Sen polls are the same as ever. Talarico +3 in the avg every month since the end of July. He's the 1st Dem TX Sen nominee to be up in the polls this late since 1988. Very different from O'Rourke in 2018 who was down 8 at this pt. Still a close race tho.
(((Harry Enten)))149,701 просмотров • 24 дней назад
Trump's mandate? It's very shallow. Trump's now under 50% in the popular vote. His margin ranks 44 of 51 since 1824. Weak coattails: 4 Dems won for Senate in states Trump won. (It was 0 in 2016 & 2020.) The GOP is on track for smallest House majority since there were 50 states.
(((Harry Enten)))4,977,743 просмотров • 2 лет назад
Re: Ohio gov... Pre-today, Ramaswamy has clearly been losing momentum. He was up by 4 pts a year ago, but now Acton is up by 4 pts. Moreover, Ramaswamy's net favorable rating (-25 pts) with independents is the worst of any GOP gov nominee in the 2000s.
(((Harry Enten)))154,477 просмотров • 26 дней назад