(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten • 228,888 subscribers
Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories. https://t.co/9MdpDsMxJd
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"Wow!" Trump's net approval rating with 18-29 year-olds is down 40 pts since the 2024 election... Stands at -47 pts now. Worse? He beat Harris on the economy with under age 30 by 11. Net approval now? -62 pts. 73 pt shift. Dems now doing 23 pts in race for Congress than 2024.
(((Harry Enten)))78,007 次观看 • 16 小时前
For Dem leaders, the call is coming from inside the house. Their own voters despise them. Dem Cong leadership's net approval with Dems is down 31 pts (to a negative 12 pts) from the last Trump Midterm. Schumer at -5 pts is the least like Dem Senate leader among Dems on record!
(((Harry Enten)))222,293 次观看 • 5 天前
Non-college voters, the base of the MAGA movement, are abandoning the GOP. MAGA's net favorability is -22 pts (down 28 pts) with them. Trump's now at -19 pt net approval with them. Dems actually lead in the race for Congress with them. This is what blue waves are built on.
(((Harry Enten)))973,143 次观看 • 1 个月前
Trump did historically well with non-college Latinos in 2024. Winning by 1. Now? His net approval is -42! Big reason? Immigration. They trusted him more than Harris by 9 on it. His net approval now? -47! Effect? Talarico may win cause of major gains w/ non-college Latinos.
(((Harry Enten)))206,682 次观看 • 13 天前
The LA mayor stuff is the dumbest conspiracy theory I've ever heard & makes no sense. Dem establishment/Bass wanted Pratt, not Raman, to advance. Bass crushes Pratt in a 1-on-1 by 18 pt, while Raman beat Bass by 4. Pratt's the rarity in LA less popular than the unpopular Bass!
(((Harry Enten)))2,036,947 次观看 • 3 个月前
It's amazing how Florida has basically been taken off the board for the Democrats. Yes, it's the Senate election this year... But the GOP has been winning all the major races. The GOP now has an 11 pt edge in party registration... in a state quickly gaining population!
(((Harry Enten)))614,631 次观看 • 1 个月前
Despite all the talk of climate change, voters, simply put, don't care. Climate ranks 14th on list of top issue for the midterm vote (at 3%). Those who say it's a very big problem is the same as in 2016 (~40%). Not even a majority agree humans cause any climate change.
(((Harry Enten)))677,205 次观看 • 1 个月前
Trump's rating on inflation with independents has gone 76 pts in the wrong direction! He's now 64 pt underwater vs. beating Harris on inflation by 12 pt. Midterm implications: Indies trusted GOP more on inflation in Aug 2022 by 27 pt. Now, Dems lead by 18 pt. A 45 pt shift!
(((Harry Enten)))336,362 次观看 • 28 天前
Tucker Carlson has been in absolute free fall among the GOP. His net favorable has dropped by 47 points. Meanwhile, Trump crushes Tucker among the GOP. Trump's net favorable is 54 pts higher than Carlson's. When you up against Trump, you in the grinder to quote Good Burger.
(((Harry Enten)))2,279,582 次观看 • 5 个月前
John Fetterman's had a 108 pt drop in his net approval with PA Dems since 2023. His net rating is -40 pt net approval with them. His net popularity with his own party is worse than all senators who lost a primary this century. There's no historical analog to his unpopularity.
(((Harry Enten)))2,438,298 次观看 • 6 个月前
Well it's official: the final polls of 2024 project out an electoral map that is the closest since at least 1972 with the leader (Harris) getting 270 electoral votes. The polls were tight at the end of 2000 too, but final map projected by the final polls was Gore at 281 votes.
(((Harry Enten)))9,313,920 次观看 • 1 年前
Trump's not the only one who gets the vapors around Mamdani. Mamdani's net favorable rating is up to +48 pts in NYC (up from +14 in Sept). Mamdani's the most popular Dem statewide in NY too. GOP had wanted to run against Mamdani in the midterms, but they can't right now.
(((Harry Enten)))2,520,907 次观看 • 7 个月前
JD Vance is making history as the least liked VP nominee (non-incumbent) since 1980 following his/her party's convention. He's the first to have a net negative favorable rating. Not surprising given how weak he ran in Ohio in 2022. Far worse than the average Ohio Republican.
(((Harry Enten)))7,242,303 次观看 • 2 年前
What happened in NYC tonight represents a larger trend among Dems... 1. Dem Socialists (+17 pt net fav) are more popular than Dems in Congress (+4 pt net fav) with Dems. 2. Socialism's popularity with Dems is way up in the last 15 years & is far more popular than capitalism.
(((Harry Enten)))764,756 次观看 • 3 个月前
The Dems midterm warning sign is pretty clear: There are high quality polls (Ipsos, MU Law, & NBC), which show Dems shy of their generic ballot benchmark in past wave years. Their Dems avg. lead is just 3 pts... & Dems need a 3-4 pt win to take the House given redistricting.
(((Harry Enten)))806,297 次观看 • 3 个月前
Trump's GOP is holding on to the generational gains they made with Black voters in the 2024 election. The GOP has gained 12 pts on the Dems on party id with African Americans vs. Trump term 1 at this point. Trump's approval with Black voters is higher than it was in term 1.
(((Harry Enten)))1,169,307 次观看 • 5 个月前
Democrats' chance of taking the House in 2026 have plummeted, while GOP chances have skyrocketed over the last 6 months... Why? 1. Dems aren't keeping up with the pace they set in 2017 on the generic ballot. 2. GOP may be looking at big gains from mid-decade redistricting.
(((Harry Enten)))2,607,048 次观看 • 11 个月前
Trump's mandate? It's very shallow. Trump's now under 50% in the popular vote. His margin ranks 44 of 51 since 1824. Weak coattails: 4 Dems won for Senate in states Trump won. (It was 0 in 2016 & 2020.) The GOP is on track for smallest House majority since there were 50 states.
(((Harry Enten)))4,977,608 次观看 • 1 年前
Trump's numbers on inflation aren't just the worst for him ever. They're the worst I've seen for any president. They're worse than Biden's worst & worse than Carter's pre-1980 election. On the cost of living, just 9% of indies & 39% (!) of the GOP say we're on the right track.
(((Harry Enten)))1,030,904 次观看 • 5 个月前
This is the best polling Texas Dems have had in a Senate race this century. Talarico's chances are very real. He's polling ~10 pts better than O'Rourke (2018) was at this pt. Paxton's net favorable is ~15 pts lower than Cruz was (2018). Trump's much less popular than in 2018.
(((Harry Enten)))347,194 次观看 • 1 个月前