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Frans Bakker

@FransBakker9812 • 30,209 subscribers

Investor in $IREN, $EOSE, $CIFR, $STUB, $KRKNF, Metaplanet and Bitcoin. Entrepeneur, Libertarian, Skateboarder. Investing for the future of my son.

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$IREN Has officially broken ground on Sweetwater 2 Ahead of site civil works, a substation and construction warehouse are to be build. With just 15~17 months until energization, grading of the first part of the site is now in progress.

$IREN Has officially broken ground on Sweetwater 2 Ahead of site civil works, a substation and construction warehouse are to be build. With just 15~17 months until energization, grading of the first part of the site is now in progress.

75,687 просмотров

$IREN "we haven't disclosed the specific amount of GPUs" 1. 🤮 reminds me of $NBIS 2. Setting a terrible precedent here for future deals 3. Making it purposely difficult, to not let analysts properly value your 2027 revenue 4. Increasing the polarized view on IREN by the market However: "approximately 60MW of air-cooled Blackwells" 1. You typically don't talk about gross capacity in a deployment like this 2. If it would be gross capacity, the GPU hour rate at IT level would be crazy high (at PUE 1.2, $680m / 50 = 13.6m/MW) 3. At 60MW IT load, and ~14kW draw at DGX server level, we can get to ~4,286 DGX systems with 8 GPUs per. 4. Based on this we can conclude that 60MW of IT load can run approximately 34k DGX B300. 5. 34k DGX B300 at $680m/yr, would represent a GPU hour price of $2.28 Now this is the problem with not disclosing your GPU quantity. You purposely make your business model look bad, because by approach, you get to a GPU hour price that would imply a payback period of 4 years, where only the last year of the contract is 100% margin. But of course, we can also take "the glass is half full" approach. IREN has ordered 50K B300s from Dell. They have 2 purchase orders for this, 1 between Dell Canada and IE CA Leasing Ltd for 4 phases, and 1 between Dell USA and IE US Hardware 1 Inc (amended from IE US Hardware 4 Inc on April 27, 2026). The order for Canada is divided in 4 phases, and are going to Mackenzie for 80MW of gross capacity, which happens to be 4 buildings of 20MW. The order for Childress is divided in 2 phases, and are going to DC35 and DC36, (as depicted in the earnings presentation) and those are 50MW gross. The purchase price of the order for Childress was $1.2B, and for Canada it was $2.3B If we go with 50,000 B300s for a total of $3.5B then $1.2 would represent 34.285% of the 50,000 GPUs, or 17,140 B300s rounded down. For this calculation I will consider that $IREN will deploy 17,140 GPUs in 50MW gross capacity in DC35 and DC36 of block 3 in Childress.. That would imply at 1.2 PUE, IREN can run 17,140 B300s in 41.67MW IT load. Now by that ratio, they can run 24,680 GPUs in 60MW IT load — a massive difference with 34k units through the Nvidia DGX reference calculation. If common sense is applied, you can still get to 2 completely different outcomes, that show a difference of more than 9k GPUs. The GPU hour rate at 24.68k GPUs would be $3.145 per B300, as MASSIVE difference from the earlier calculated $2.28. Sure, the DGX system may be a factor here. And I'm sure that the reality is somewhere in the middle. But I personally hate this as an investor, to be unable to calculate profitability on unit economic basis. After all, contracts are signed on a $/GPU hour basis. Why hide this from your investors? Not being able to calculate payback periods, unable to calculate ROIC. And most importantly, we cannot properly assess the $NVDA deal on a contract basis. I really hope the payback period of this contract is not 4 years. I want the glass to be half full, but by starting to censor the purchases, IREN is taking a step in the wrong direction. Not a fan of this.

$IREN "we haven't disclosed the specific amount of GPUs" 1. 🤮 reminds me of $NBIS 2. Setting a terrible precedent here for future deals 3. Making it purposely difficult, to not let analysts properly value your 2027 revenue 4. Increasing the polarized view on IREN by the market However: "approximately 60MW of air-cooled Blackwells" 1. You typically don't talk about gross capacity in a deployment like this 2. If it would be gross capacity, the GPU hour rate at IT level would be crazy high (at PUE 1.2, $680m / 50 = 13.6m/MW) 3. At 60MW IT load, and ~14kW draw at DGX server level, we can get to ~4,286 DGX systems with 8 GPUs per. 4. Based on this we can conclude that 60MW of IT load can run approximately 34k DGX B300. 5. 34k DGX B300 at $680m/yr, would represent a GPU hour price of $2.28 Now this is the problem with not disclosing your GPU quantity. You purposely make your business model look bad, because by approach, you get to a GPU hour price that would imply a payback period of 4 years, where only the last year of the contract is 100% margin. But of course, we can also take "the glass is half full" approach. IREN has ordered 50K B300s from Dell. They have 2 purchase orders for this, 1 between Dell Canada and IE CA Leasing Ltd for 4 phases, and 1 between Dell USA and IE US Hardware 1 Inc (amended from IE US Hardware 4 Inc on April 27, 2026). The order for Canada is divided in 4 phases, and are going to Mackenzie for 80MW of gross capacity, which happens to be 4 buildings of 20MW. The order for Childress is divided in 2 phases, and are going to DC35 and DC36, (as depicted in the earnings presentation) and those are 50MW gross. The purchase price of the order for Childress was $1.2B, and for Canada it was $2.3B If we go with 50,000 B300s for a total of $3.5B then $1.2 would represent 34.285% of the 50,000 GPUs, or 17,140 B300s rounded down. For this calculation I will consider that $IREN will deploy 17,140 GPUs in 50MW gross capacity in DC35 and DC36 of block 3 in Childress.. That would imply at 1.2 PUE, IREN can run 17,140 B300s in 41.67MW IT load. Now by that ratio, they can run 24,680 GPUs in 60MW IT load — a massive difference with 34k units through the Nvidia DGX reference calculation. If common sense is applied, you can still get to 2 completely different outcomes, that show a difference of more than 9k GPUs. The GPU hour rate at 24.68k GPUs would be $3.145 per B300, as MASSIVE difference from the earlier calculated $2.28. Sure, the DGX system may be a factor here. And I'm sure that the reality is somewhere in the middle. But I personally hate this as an investor, to be unable to calculate profitability on unit economic basis. After all, contracts are signed on a $/GPU hour basis. Why hide this from your investors? Not being able to calculate payback periods, unable to calculate ROIC. And most importantly, we cannot properly assess the $NVDA deal on a contract basis. I really hope the payback period of this contract is not 4 years. I want the glass to be half full, but by starting to censor the purchases, IREN is taking a step in the wrong direction. Not a fan of this.

146,717 просмотров

Air permit or not, $NBIS Vineland is not standing still. 6 days between these 2 pictures, and noticable differences.

Air permit or not, $NBIS Vineland is not standing still. 6 days between these 2 pictures, and noticable differences.

69,264 просмотров

$IREN builds faster than Stargate. With less than 600 workers, now up to 1,100, they managed to build 500MW of data centers in just 14 months — in the absolute middle of nowhere. Sure, these were air-cooled data centers, with "just" 80kW racks. But the execution was flawless, within budget, and within the guided time frame. What's going to happen, when there are 2,500 workers at Sweetwater, 1,100 at Childress, and there is no supercluster, an abundance of LLI's, and the best EPC's of the world wanting to work with you? That's right, a culmination of expertise, experience, and blazing speed will be unleased on West Texas. Fade at your own peril.

$IREN builds faster than Stargate. With less than 600 workers, now up to 1,100, they managed to build 500MW of data centers in just 14 months — in the absolute middle of nowhere. Sure, these were air-cooled data centers, with "just" 80kW racks. But the execution was flawless, within budget, and within the guided time frame. What's going to happen, when there are 2,500 workers at Sweetwater, 1,100 at Childress, and there is no supercluster, an abundance of LLI's, and the best EPC's of the world wanting to work with you? That's right, a culmination of expertise, experience, and blazing speed will be unleased on West Texas. Fade at your own peril.

139,208 просмотров

Taking a break from X today! Renting a boat that I could buy in a few months with $IREN proceeds 😏 Have a nice weekend fam!

Taking a break from X today! Renting a boat that I could buy in a few months with $IREN proceeds 😏 Have a nice weekend fam!

12,860 просмотров

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$IREN at RAISE Summit Kent Draper: 3 layers of AI compute 1. Physical Infrastructure 2. Compute 3. Software & Services Layers 1 and 2 are the key foundation, without those, your ceiling is capped. I have been pounding the table on the superior model of a bottom-up approach. Kent Draper confirms that IREN sees it the same. Having a strong foundation of land, power, grid connections, substations, owned GPUs, network core buildings, and storage, will unlock the amount of GPU hours that can be monetized up the stack. It's very simple: with an abundance of physical infrastructure and chips — software is the layer that can be added when needed. The foundation of the thesis rests on physical assets and power being scarce, and those are the limiting factors in your ability to grow faster than peers.

$IREN at RAISE Summit Kent Draper: 3 layers of AI compute 1. Physical Infrastructure 2. Compute 3. Software & Services Layers 1 and 2 are the key foundation, without those, your ceiling is capped. I have been pounding the table on the superior model of a bottom-up approach. Kent Draper confirms that IREN sees it the same. Having a strong foundation of land, power, grid connections, substations, owned GPUs, network core buildings, and storage, will unlock the amount of GPU hours that can be monetized up the stack. It's very simple: with an abundance of physical infrastructure and chips — software is the layer that can be added when needed. The foundation of the thesis rests on physical assets and power being scarce, and those are the limiting factors in your ability to grow faster than peers.

39,005 просмотров • 6 дней назад

$IREN Dan on YahooFinance Dan was a Giga-Chad with Giga-Watts First part fell off, most is in there. "We can't build fast enough" 😎

$IREN Dan on YahooFinance Dan was a Giga-Chad with Giga-Watts First part fell off, most is in there. "We can't build fast enough" 😎

273,447 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

$IREN My Earnings Wishlist pt1 Since many have posted their wishlist before me, I will take a different approach, and will just write down anything that I think is likely to happen in the coming 6-12 months, which interests me, and hasn't been talked about yet, or not into much detail. Chapter 1: New Sites IREN has always said they have a >1 GW pipeline. Last year, Dan Roberts said: "And that can be any number above 1GW". More recent communication mentioned "Multi-GW Pipeline", which brings the bare minimum to 2GW, and that's on top of 2.91GW of disclosed, contracted power. Yesterday, Mike Alfred said that the current 200MW deal with $MSFT is a "tiny part" of their total portfolio. He has also made comments like "Just wait until you see the entire pipeline". Also yesterday, we heard Dan mention "Outside of Texas & Globally", for the locations of their other sites. Within my subscriber group, we keep track of the land that is being optioned and bought by $IREN. Amongst these sites, we try to assess which one is the most likely to be a candidate for a connection agreement, and subsequent energization approval. Currently, the interest has shifted outside of Texas, and I believe that's why more recently we have heard the "global" pipeline come back into the picture. This is also why Dan said "Outside of Texas and Globally". Now, I wasn't going to really talk about development sites. And I think your guess is as good as mine, if you would have the information that I have. So I will not be speculating on particular sites. But will give my realistic expectation for these earnings, or at the latest, somewhere in the coming 6-12 months. Because we know that the 2025-2027 window is the most valuable when it comes to Megawatts, and we have some information that indicates a choice will have to be made before the end of this year with regards to a specific new project — I think a general expectation is in order for the wishlist of the earnings of Thursday. Prediction: $IREN's first new project will either be in Asia-Pacific ("Globally"), or in Oklahoma ("Outside of Texas"). Now I promised not to speculate on particular sites, so I will mostly focus on explaining why I think Asia-Pacific is the most likely to be next. Thanks to one of my best $IREN informers, I was notified of a new job listing by a recruiter in Sydney that is specficially looking for commercial jobs. You may be aware of IREN's job listings on HiBob or LinkedIn, but despite there being 93 open positions listed there, it's still not all that they are looking to hire. But lo and behold: there is a new listing at their commercial recruit which mentions the following: Senior Manager, Corporate Development (AI Data centres - Sydney & Vancouver Our client is a global operator in the digital infrastructure sector, developing and managing high-performance computing (HPC) facilities powered by renewable energy. The business owns and operates large-scale data-centre campuses across North America, with active expansion into the Asia-Pacific region. By combining low-cost renewable power with advanced compute infrastructure, the company is helping accelerate the global energy transition and support the next generation of AI and HPC applications. Now it gets even more interesting when we read the job description: We are seeking two commercially focused professionals to lead M&A transactions from origination through execution. Sitting at the intersection of corporate development, project development, and investment execution, these roles will drive complex deals that underpin the company’s global expansion pipeline. End-to-end transaction management: Lead or co-lead M&A processes including initial engagement with counterparties, structuring, due diligence, negotiation of binding documentation, and execution. Financial and risk analysis: Build and review models to evaluate potential returns, sensitivities, and risk exposures across acquisition, partnership, and joint-venture structures. Now, you may remember I made a post last week about IREN's ARS: One interesting paragraph that I didn't talk about yet, was the M&A paragraph: Consider pursuing strategic acquisitions and other value enhancing opportunities We may strategically assess acquisition opportunities where we believe such transactions can accelerate our strategic roadmap through horizontal or vertical integration, expanding capacity, or gaining intellectual property that may help strengthen our competitive advantage. In addition, we may from time to time, seek to dispose of, or monetize, assets where we believe we can receive value from any such disposition, or monetization, that is accretive to the business. Now before I close this topic, and give my final words on the expectations I have for the announcement of a new site, I want to shortly address the McNallie Money interview with Patrick Fleury that was released yesterday. I think it's one thing to be proud of your own customers and partners by calling them "the best in the world", it's also fine if you think that everyone is imitating your "first ever financial engineering". But I think it's not very classy to throw shade on Texas data center companies, especially peers, that have a pipeline, and long standing relationships with T(D)SP's, and have a realistic line of sight to power. Just because there is 200GW of queued capacity, doesn't mean that seasoned operators like $CIFR and $IREN are making things up. I have evidence in my possession that demonstrates that the companies I am invested in that operate in Texas, have all the means and connections to get these new sites energized. But for the sake of this notion that "having all your sites in Texas is a concentration risk", I am happy to reiterate that $IREN has in fact got a pipeline that expands outside of Texas, and most likely will see an announcement in Asia Pacific, or Oklahoma, within the coming 6-12 months. So let's see if we get something tomorrow, or if it will just be some extra power coming to Childress or Canada. But almost 1 year after the announcement of Sweetwater 2 — I am confident that the time is near that we hear from a new site, potentially outside of Texas or globally.

$IREN My Earnings Wishlist pt1 Since many have posted their wishlist before me, I will take a different approach, and will just write down anything that I think is likely to happen in the coming 6-12 months, which interests me, and hasn't been talked about yet, or not into much detail. Chapter 1: New Sites IREN has always said they have a >1 GW pipeline. Last year, Dan Roberts said: "And that can be any number above 1GW". More recent communication mentioned "Multi-GW Pipeline", which brings the bare minimum to 2GW, and that's on top of 2.91GW of disclosed, contracted power. Yesterday, Mike Alfred said that the current 200MW deal with $MSFT is a "tiny part" of their total portfolio. He has also made comments like "Just wait until you see the entire pipeline". Also yesterday, we heard Dan mention "Outside of Texas & Globally", for the locations of their other sites. Within my subscriber group, we keep track of the land that is being optioned and bought by $IREN. Amongst these sites, we try to assess which one is the most likely to be a candidate for a connection agreement, and subsequent energization approval. Currently, the interest has shifted outside of Texas, and I believe that's why more recently we have heard the "global" pipeline come back into the picture. This is also why Dan said "Outside of Texas and Globally". Now, I wasn't going to really talk about development sites. And I think your guess is as good as mine, if you would have the information that I have. So I will not be speculating on particular sites. But will give my realistic expectation for these earnings, or at the latest, somewhere in the coming 6-12 months. Because we know that the 2025-2027 window is the most valuable when it comes to Megawatts, and we have some information that indicates a choice will have to be made before the end of this year with regards to a specific new project — I think a general expectation is in order for the wishlist of the earnings of Thursday. Prediction: $IREN's first new project will either be in Asia-Pacific ("Globally"), or in Oklahoma ("Outside of Texas"). Now I promised not to speculate on particular sites, so I will mostly focus on explaining why I think Asia-Pacific is the most likely to be next. Thanks to one of my best $IREN informers, I was notified of a new job listing by a recruiter in Sydney that is specficially looking for commercial jobs. You may be aware of IREN's job listings on HiBob or LinkedIn, but despite there being 93 open positions listed there, it's still not all that they are looking to hire. But lo and behold: there is a new listing at their commercial recruit which mentions the following: Senior Manager, Corporate Development (AI Data centres - Sydney & Vancouver Our client is a global operator in the digital infrastructure sector, developing and managing high-performance computing (HPC) facilities powered by renewable energy. The business owns and operates large-scale data-centre campuses across North America, with active expansion into the Asia-Pacific region. By combining low-cost renewable power with advanced compute infrastructure, the company is helping accelerate the global energy transition and support the next generation of AI and HPC applications. Now it gets even more interesting when we read the job description: We are seeking two commercially focused professionals to lead M&A transactions from origination through execution. Sitting at the intersection of corporate development, project development, and investment execution, these roles will drive complex deals that underpin the company’s global expansion pipeline. End-to-end transaction management: Lead or co-lead M&A processes including initial engagement with counterparties, structuring, due diligence, negotiation of binding documentation, and execution. Financial and risk analysis: Build and review models to evaluate potential returns, sensitivities, and risk exposures across acquisition, partnership, and joint-venture structures. Now, you may remember I made a post last week about IREN's ARS: One interesting paragraph that I didn't talk about yet, was the M&A paragraph: Consider pursuing strategic acquisitions and other value enhancing opportunities We may strategically assess acquisition opportunities where we believe such transactions can accelerate our strategic roadmap through horizontal or vertical integration, expanding capacity, or gaining intellectual property that may help strengthen our competitive advantage. In addition, we may from time to time, seek to dispose of, or monetize, assets where we believe we can receive value from any such disposition, or monetization, that is accretive to the business. Now before I close this topic, and give my final words on the expectations I have for the announcement of a new site, I want to shortly address the McNallie Money interview with Patrick Fleury that was released yesterday. I think it's one thing to be proud of your own customers and partners by calling them "the best in the world", it's also fine if you think that everyone is imitating your "first ever financial engineering". But I think it's not very classy to throw shade on Texas data center companies, especially peers, that have a pipeline, and long standing relationships with T(D)SP's, and have a realistic line of sight to power. Just because there is 200GW of queued capacity, doesn't mean that seasoned operators like $CIFR and $IREN are making things up. I have evidence in my possession that demonstrates that the companies I am invested in that operate in Texas, have all the means and connections to get these new sites energized. But for the sake of this notion that "having all your sites in Texas is a concentration risk", I am happy to reiterate that $IREN has in fact got a pipeline that expands outside of Texas, and most likely will see an announcement in Asia Pacific, or Oklahoma, within the coming 6-12 months. So let's see if we get something tomorrow, or if it will just be some extra power coming to Childress or Canada. But almost 1 year after the announcement of Sweetwater 2 — I am confident that the time is near that we hear from a new site, potentially outside of Texas or globally.

142,502 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

$IREN Cantor: IREN Always Hits Their Targets Nobody cares about HC Wainwright. Brett Knoblauch explains why his renowned firm has a $100 price target for the company. "Everything that IREN has said, from a target perspective — they have gone out and delivered"

$IREN Cantor: IREN Always Hits Their Targets Nobody cares about HC Wainwright. Brett Knoblauch explains why his renowned firm has a $100 price target for the company. "Everything that IREN has said, from a target perspective — they have gone out and delivered"

139,050 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

$IREN "IREN is Next" amit just gave us his opinion (NFA) on what the street thinks is the next $HIMS. Are you bullish yet, anon?

$IREN "IREN is Next" amit just gave us his opinion (NFA) on what the street thinks is the next $HIMS. Are you bullish yet, anon?

120,044 просмотров • 1 год назад

What is the real bottleneck for compute? Anjney Midha explains it in the latest episode of Moonshots: - Demand is uncapped - Compute providers outbid each other for energy supply - We don't have enough electricity to power the chips. Bullish $IREN h/t Mike Hillier

What is the real bottleneck for compute? Anjney Midha explains it in the latest episode of Moonshots: - Demand is uncapped - Compute providers outbid each other for energy supply - We don't have enough electricity to power the chips. Bullish $IREN h/t Mike Hillier

35,988 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

$CLSK Well, well, well. Guess who will be rotating to $CIFR soon? "Farmers don't yell at their crops and remove them when they don't think they're growing fast enough". Maybe not, but this farmer has kerosine to grow his new crops. The new crops are called AI.

$CLSK Well, well, well. Guess who will be rotating to $CIFR soon? "Farmers don't yell at their crops and remove them when they don't think they're growing fast enough". Maybe not, but this farmer has kerosine to grow his new crops. The new crops are called AI.

44,245 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

$IREN $DELL $NVDA Throwback to last year, when IREN featured on Dell's website as customer story with their H100 Dell AI Factory with NVIDIA. Yes, that's right. IREN has been operating the AI factory concept for over a year now. I bet you didn't see this video before.

$IREN $DELL $NVDA Throwback to last year, when IREN featured on Dell's website as customer story with their H100 Dell AI Factory with NVIDIA. Yes, that's right. IREN has been operating the AI factory concept for over a year now. I bet you didn't see this video before.

14,690 просмотров • 1 год назад

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