Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️
@FreightAlley • 109,941 subscribers
Freight affiliated media. Founder - FreightWaves: Freight market intelligence SONAR: High-frequency freight data Firecrown: enthusiast media esp. transport
Videos
You are not bullish enough. The trucking market is an 11 out of a 10 right now, with some the strongest charts since COVID. The resurgence of the US industrial economy and manufacturing renaissance is real, along with tightening capacity. I told Bloomberg Open Interest that I am an 11 out of 10 about how bullish the signals are in domestic freight.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️311,848 次观看 • 3 个月前
JB Hunt set the tone for earnings describing how shippers are accepting a massive shift and calling it a "structural change" and unlike other capacity-led market changes. Hunt's team made the case that we should not expect this market to correct anytime soon, as the regulatory crackdown continues and trucker balance sheets have been wrecked by the worst downturn in history. This makes the case that a trucking super cycle is on the way!
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️67,750 次观看 • 2 个月前
The American Manufacturing Renaissance is happening. We are now getting confirmation from multiple freight and supply chain datasets that the industrial recovery is real and manufacturing is on course to enjoy one of the best markets in years. The domestic freight market strength is not just capacity - its an industrial renaissance bringing real volumes to the freight industry. Its not just trucking data - the railroads are seeing strong volumes, with shipments up 4.5% YoY. Rail volumes are more stable than trucking, so this level of increase in remarkable. Carloads, excluding coal, are at the strongest March since 2008, and chemical shipments are the highest levels ever measured. Other datasets, which track trucking but lag SONAR's high frequency data, are also reporting strength. Truckstop - "Highest load board postings since 2022." ATA Truck Tonnage index - "Highest levels in 3 years" BoA Shipper Survey - "18% increase YoY and highest since 2022" ISM Manufacturing PMI - "Highest levels in 3 years" Bottom line: Flatbed + rail strength confirm that the US is experiencing some of the strongest industrial signals in years.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️73,961 次观看 • 3 个月前
$5/mile for truckload spot rates on the horizon? With 30% of the trucks in the market either having no safety-rating or a conditional safety rating, we could see a large percentage of those carriers drop out of the market. Rates are definitely going up - the question is how high? A trucking super cycle could bring $5/mile spot rates.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️39,884 次观看 • 1 个月前
The Administration dropped the hammer today on illegal immigration with its biggest announcement yet: It intends to go after financial institutions and money transmitters that allow illegal immigrants to transfer money back home. FinCEN, the criminal enforcement agency ran by Treasury, may be the most powerful of Federal agency because of its control of the banking system. This will have massive implications for immigrants.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️113,684 次观看 • 7 个月前
Freight continues it's epic collapse, with the Cass Shipment Index giving off some of the most significant warning signs about the state of the goods economy. The Cass Shipment Index, the benchmark freight index, has dropped to October 2009 levels, the height of the Great Financial Crisis. This is my breakdown on what this means for freight and the goods economy overall.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️94,925 次观看 • 7 个月前
Trump will sign an executive order mandating that all truck drivers in the US speak English proficiently. This is a positive development for safety, but it will have a significant impact on trucking capacity and could help the industry right-size from excess capacity.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️136,973 次观看 • 1 年前
Truckload spot rates hit all-time record of $3.69. RXO comes out with very bullish market update, talking about the significant amount of spot opportunities as shippers scramble for capacity in a tight market. Tender rejections hit new cycle high. Enterprise brokers are as bullish as I've seen them on the back of the SCOTUS decision and shippers are doing far more diligence on providers in the wake of increased liability.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️23,481 次观看 • 1 个月前
Truckload rejections pop to 14.01%, near the highest levels they've been in years. It is notable that this is happening in Mid-February, normally one of the worst months for freight. Shippers should prepare for significant rate increases this year and even if carriers participated in the RFP, expect higher rate concessions later in the year as fleet execs gain conviction.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️50,966 次观看 • 4 个月前
This is a carrier's market. There are zero signs that things are cooling, in fact, in recent days the market has firmed significantly. Many traffic managers at shippers have not seen a carrier's market and are unprepared. If they have refused rate concessions, they will find themselves without trucks this spring.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️29,506 次观看 • 3 个月前
Trucking conditions have improved, largely related to the compliance crunch, not volumes. But with record low inventories reported by the LMI, this could soon change. We could see COVID like freight conditions, without a capacity relief valve in 2026. This would be incredibly bullish for motor carriers, but destructive to shipper routing guides and budgets.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️40,333 次观看 • 6 个月前
The Defense Production Act Executive Order will be a driver of millions of truckloads over the next few years, particular in flatbed, but will also pay massive dividends for US manufacturing competitiveness. 38% of US manufacturing costs are tied to energy (according to Bloomberg's Chief US Economist per EIA), with natural gas serving as the preferred energy source but also the feedstock for things like petrochemicals and plastics. The issue today: US is swimming in natural gas, so much so, that producers either burn it off or pay someone to remove it from their fields. The other benefit for the Defense Production Act is in the form of electricity production and infrastructure, which is in serious neglect after decades of underinvestment and slow permitting. Every part of our future economy requires cheap and abundant energy and electricity. Building out natural gas and power infrastructure will make US industry far more competitive globally.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️20,758 次观看 • 2 个月前
Truckload spot rates hit new all-time high: this is not SCOTUS related, it is compliance crackdown + reindustrialization. We are week into SCOTUS and this is what we've learned (all over the board tbh): - Large brokers tell us they are getting more commitments from shippers, not less. Shippers are concerned that they are next and want protection. - Managed trans appears to be a massive winner. - Some shippers are reevaluating small carriers (due to compliance risks and cost) and looking to move more freight through large brokers, not less. While others have stopped loading brokers altogether. - Large shippers are already evaluating their brokers for financial viability and requesting larger insurance policies. - Asset-carriers tell us that what eats them alive isn't the big lawsuits, but the very small claims and wonder if brokers will be pulled into the small claims that are handled outside of insurance, which could result in 1-2 claims/1000 loads. At a cost of $20k each, that could result in $20-40/load just in administrative costs of dealing with small claims. - Insurance costs are going up for brokers, but no one really knows how much. Ranges we are hearing is 3-10x. - Conditional safety rating is really difficult for small carriers due to the slow resolution of those ratings at the FMCSA, which is overwhelmed and under resourced - We had our first lawsuit involving a large broker that was previously thrown out under summary judgement amended to include the freight broker
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️14,053 次观看 • 1 个月前
A Trucking Golden Age? Trucking spot rates hit the highest levels since early March 2022, before the Great Freight Recession was on anyone's mind and + $.15/mile in the past week. The spot rate surge is happening in the background of weakening diesel prices ($-.97/gallon on wholesale) since April 8th ($.14/mile). The drop in diesel + surging spot rates will tremendous for motor carriers that operate in the spot market, as they will experience significant increases in cash flow. With demand expected to firm over the coming months, but little capacity coming in to relieve tight markets, trucking could be entering a Golden Age - a long sustained period of high demand, high rates, and stable costs.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️20,122 次观看 • 2 个月前