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GuledWiliq

@GuledWiliq • 37,889 subscribers

Author & MEI Scholar @MiddleEastInst | Geopolitics & governance | Building crypto neobank & blockchain infra | Maritime security, Sanctions & illicit finance |

Shorts

Turkish-trained forces in Somalia are among the least effective in Somalia, second only to those trained by Eritrea. Here are the reasons why: 1. They have the highest number of desertion rates. 2. They struggle to hold territory. 3. Only 10% of the troops can read military maps. 4. They lack proficiency with the AK-47 and are only familiar with Turkish weapons, which are unsuitable for the Somalia environment. 5. Al-Shabaab refers to them as "birds" because they fail to hold territory even for short periods. This assessment comes from high-ranking Somali military officials who are not trained by the Turkish government.

Turkish-trained forces in Somalia are among the least effective in Somalia, second only to those trained by Eritrea. Here are the reasons why: 1. They have the highest number of desertion rates. 2. They struggle to hold territory. 3. Only 10% of the troops can read military maps. 4. They lack proficiency with the AK-47 and are only familiar with Turkish weapons, which are unsuitable for the Somalia environment. 5. Al-Shabaab refers to them as "birds" because they fail to hold territory even for short periods. This assessment comes from high-ranking Somali military officials who are not trained by the Turkish government.

42,624 Aufrufe

I created a digital animated infographic that explains Al-Shabaab's revenue based on 20 years of audited UN data and the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank of Somalia's domestic revenue since 2011. My three years of research shows that UN estimates of Al-Shabaab's revenue have remained unchanged at $120 million to $150 million from 2011 to 2024. In contrast, Somalia's domestic revenue has increased by an average of 25% each year since 2011. It is illogical to conclude that Al-Shabaab makes less than the Somali government, which relies 95% on domestic revenue from Mogadishu. I applied an 18% annual growth rate to Al-Shabaab's revenue from 2011 and found that by 2022, Al-Shabaab's revenue was at least 2.5 times that of Somalia's domestic revenue, exceeding $700 million. I welcome any feedback or comments and am happy to engage.

I created a digital animated infographic that explains Al-Shabaab's revenue based on 20 years of audited UN data and the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank of Somalia's domestic revenue since 2011. My three years of research shows that UN estimates of Al-Shabaab's revenue have remained unchanged at $120 million to $150 million from 2011 to 2024. In contrast, Somalia's domestic revenue has increased by an average of 25% each year since 2011. It is illogical to conclude that Al-Shabaab makes less than the Somali government, which relies 95% on domestic revenue from Mogadishu. I applied an 18% annual growth rate to Al-Shabaab's revenue from 2011 and found that by 2022, Al-Shabaab's revenue was at least 2.5 times that of Somalia's domestic revenue, exceeding $700 million. I welcome any feedback or comments and am happy to engage.

19,634 Aufrufe

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Wait—did the Turkish FM just admit that Somalia doesn’t control the Gulf of Aden or Bab el-Mandeb, but Somaliland does? That’s reality leaking through the rhetoric. Geography beats slogans—control follows coastline and security. Don’t be surprised when Ankara starts knocking on Hargeisa’s door.

Wait—did the Turkish FM just admit that Somalia doesn’t control the Gulf of Aden or Bab el-Mandeb, but Somaliland does? That’s reality leaking through the rhetoric. Geography beats slogans—control follows coastline and security. Don’t be surprised when Ankara starts knocking on Hargeisa’s door.

29,031 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🚨 New Development| BREAKING New Al-Shabaab media confirms an overt operational presence in/near Laascaanood, reinforcing last week’s reporting that fighters were deployed under Abdi Madoobe. A recent UN Panel report already documents Al-Shabaab deployments into the so-called “North-Eastern State” (2025), with objectives to expand influence and secure routes toward Sanaag/Ceerigaabo. Key judgment: The “North-Eastern State” construct is functioning as an Al-Qaeda–aligned proto-state, providing political and security cover for Al-Shabaab terrorist entrenchment. Implications: The U.S. should treat this as a new northern front. Somalia is transitioning from a failed state toward a state-enabled terrorism risk. The presence of the Turkish ambassador at the inauguration of this unconstitutional federal member state signals external political backing that risks legitimizing an Al-Shabaab-permissive structure. This front overlaps with documented Al-Shabaab–Houthis collaboration via Yemen, forming a Red Sea–Horn of Africa threat continuum that pressures Somaliland, counters Israel/UAE presence, and elevates risk to U.S. and international facilities.

🚨 New Development| BREAKING New Al-Shabaab media confirms an overt operational presence in/near Laascaanood, reinforcing last week’s reporting that fighters were deployed under Abdi Madoobe. A recent UN Panel report already documents Al-Shabaab deployments into the so-called “North-Eastern State” (2025), with objectives to expand influence and secure routes toward Sanaag/Ceerigaabo. Key judgment: The “North-Eastern State” construct is functioning as an Al-Qaeda–aligned proto-state, providing political and security cover for Al-Shabaab terrorist entrenchment. Implications: The U.S. should treat this as a new northern front. Somalia is transitioning from a failed state toward a state-enabled terrorism risk. The presence of the Turkish ambassador at the inauguration of this unconstitutional federal member state signals external political backing that risks legitimizing an Al-Shabaab-permissive structure. This front overlaps with documented Al-Shabaab–Houthis collaboration via Yemen, forming a Red Sea–Horn of Africa threat continuum that pressures Somaliland, counters Israel/UAE presence, and elevates risk to U.S. and international facilities.

25,581 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Breaking News& Update: As the first to break the news on February 28th about Al-Shabaab's plot to seize Mogadishu, I've witnessed the situation evolve at a staggering pace. Now, Al-Shabaab has infiltrated the city and is reportedly attempting an assassination of the Somali president. For those who dismissed this as fake news, it's time to reconsider the reality. Meanwhile, the Somali government has imposed a media blackout and adopted dictatorial measures against any reporting, labeling those who share the truth as Al-Shabaab sympathizers.

Breaking News& Update: As the first to break the news on February 28th about Al-Shabaab's plot to seize Mogadishu, I've witnessed the situation evolve at a staggering pace. Now, Al-Shabaab has infiltrated the city and is reportedly attempting an assassination of the Somali president. For those who dismissed this as fake news, it's time to reconsider the reality. Meanwhile, the Somali government has imposed a media blackout and adopted dictatorial measures against any reporting, labeling those who share the truth as Al-Shabaab sympathizers.

52,018 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Your #MondayMotivation Old remittance rails are dying. Stablecoins + HybridFi Web 2.5 are taking over. Sent USDC from Coinbase 🛡️ → E-Beeso → Equity Bank Kenya in seconds. No borders. No 12% fees. If you’re serious about crypto infra in Africa, let’s build. Brian Armstrong Rain Chuk Stephen Deng jack Dante Reminick Base - East Africa Jess Houlgrave Nik farooq 🌧 Wiza Jalakasi

Your #MondayMotivation Old remittance rails are dying. Stablecoins + HybridFi Web 2.5 are taking over. Sent USDC from Coinbase 🛡️ → E-Beeso → Equity Bank Kenya in seconds. No borders. No 12% fees. If you’re serious about crypto infra in Africa, let’s build. Brian Armstrong Rain Chuk Stephen Deng jack Dante Reminick Base - East Africa Jess Houlgrave Nik farooq 🌧 Wiza Jalakasi

24,597 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Holy f**k. Let’s be precise. The Turkish government is now saying: “We may have found oil in Somalia… but we still need to study the data.” The same seismic data they already bought from Norway. Then, in the same breath, they’re announcing drilling in 2026. That’s not energy exploratio, that’s contradiction. You don’t announce drilling if you haven’t confirmed a discovery. This is like saying you might have found gold, calling in a jeweler to verify it, and then booking a full mining operation before the jeweler even confirms it’s gold. I’ll be damned. 🤣🤣 This isn’t technical caution. It’s political theater dressed up as geology.

Holy f**k. Let’s be precise. The Turkish government is now saying: “We may have found oil in Somalia… but we still need to study the data.” The same seismic data they already bought from Norway. Then, in the same breath, they’re announcing drilling in 2026. That’s not energy exploratio, that’s contradiction. You don’t announce drilling if you haven’t confirmed a discovery. This is like saying you might have found gold, calling in a jeweler to verify it, and then booking a full mining operation before the jeweler even confirms it’s gold. I’ll be damned. 🤣🤣 This isn’t technical caution. It’s political theater dressed up as geology.

15,449 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Mogadishu road rage is next level - these Rikshaw drivers decided to settle their dispute like two goats headbutting each other-unbelievable.

Mogadishu road rage is next level - these Rikshaw drivers decided to settle their dispute like two goats headbutting each other-unbelievable.

39,764 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Irro is full-time Kacaan or what? How do you go from “I’m not from Somalia, I’m from Somaliland” to suddenly “I’m the first elected Somali leader” — whether in Mogadishu, Puntland, or Jubbaland. I believed Irro was elected by Somalilanders in Somaliland, not by the irredentists from Greater Somalia🤣 War nafta yar maxeey leedahay?

Irro is full-time Kacaan or what? How do you go from “I’m not from Somalia, I’m from Somaliland” to suddenly “I’m the first elected Somali leader” — whether in Mogadishu, Puntland, or Jubbaland. I believed Irro was elected by Somalilanders in Somaliland, not by the irredentists from Greater Somalia🤣 War nafta yar maxeey leedahay?

16,216 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Kobo Kutukade, the Al-Shabaab leader in Middle Shabelle, is now taunting the Chief of the Somali Army and the Military Court Judge, accusing them of cowardice for abandoning the Adan Yabaal district. It's worth noting that back in 2023, Kobo was ready to surrender, but Hassan Sheikh turned it into a political maneuver, causing Kobo Kutukade to back out of the deal. Let that sink in.

Kobo Kutukade, the Al-Shabaab leader in Middle Shabelle, is now taunting the Chief of the Somali Army and the Military Court Judge, accusing them of cowardice for abandoning the Adan Yabaal district. It's worth noting that back in 2023, Kobo was ready to surrender, but Hassan Sheikh turned it into a political maneuver, causing Kobo Kutukade to back out of the deal. Let that sink in.

17,827 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

As I have warned before, the governments of Djibouti and Somalia have conspired to instigate election violence and terrorism in Somaliland. In a revealing interview, Ahmed Fiqi, the Somali Foreign Minister and known Al-Shabaab liaison, has openly stated that their government is actively devising a scheme to deploy troops to the Awdal region. This nefarious mission is still in progress, despite Al-Shabaab's resurgence which is clear and present danger to Somalia-unbelievable.

As I have warned before, the governments of Djibouti and Somalia have conspired to instigate election violence and terrorism in Somaliland. In a revealing interview, Ahmed Fiqi, the Somali Foreign Minister and known Al-Shabaab liaison, has openly stated that their government is actively devising a scheme to deploy troops to the Awdal region. This nefarious mission is still in progress, despite Al-Shabaab's resurgence which is clear and present danger to Somalia-unbelievable.

10,139 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

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