Gustafsson

1/7 Built a Polymarket trading bot over 3 months. Here are the biggest mistakes that cost me real money > Went from v1 to v61. Every version fixed something painful. --- 2/7 Stop Loss killed more money than it saved. > Binary markets need room to breathe - fluctuations are normal. > Stop Loss was cutting positions on random noise and locking in losses right before the market flipped. > Removed it in v61. Immediately better. --- 3/7 Martingale + Stop Loss = a loss cascade. > Seemed logical: lost $5 -> bet $8, lost again -> bet $10. > In practice: a losing streak plus early exits = a hole in your balance in a single day. > Killed it. For good. --- 4/7 Smart Exit without Force Exit is a trap. > Token hits 90c (+75% profit), but the bot was waiting for a "BTC reversal" signal. > Market closes, token drops, profit gone. > Fix: hard Force Exit at 85c. No conditions, no waiting. --- 5/7 Blocking the 5:30-10:30 PM ET window felt safe. It wasn't. > NYSE open = sharp spikes = bad signals. Made sense to block it. > But the full block was also killing clean entries at 8-10:30 PM. > Had to split the zone into segments with different edge/move thresholds. --- 6/7 The Gamma API lies about market start time. > Start price ("price to beat") is the core input for every signal. > Gamma was returning stale data. Had to pull prices directly from Chainlink on-chain on Polygon. > That's its own adventure - polling a smart contract every 2 seconds at 2 AM. --- 7/7 The real lesson: don't overcomplicate what works. > v1: complex system, 10 indicators -> -$200/day > v61: "buy the expensive token for $5, exit at +30%" -> consistently green > Simpler logic = fewer failure points. > The bot runs 96 intervals a day. Every mistake shows up fast.

31,590 Aufrufe