Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA
@HAOHONG_CFA • 347,753 subscribers
Person of the Year-Bloomberg BW;3xChina’s Most Influential Economist;3xEconomist of the Year-Asia Private Banker;“The man called China’s boom & bust”-Bloomberg
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Trump arriving in Beijing. CNY, rare earths, tech/AI cooperation, and geopolitics will be high on the agenda. CNY is one of the most undervalued currencies in the world and is poised for significant appreciation. Rising trade terms, FX reserves, and the currency’s real effective exchange rate all point toward this emerging secular trend. In early 2025, when the CNY was still around 7.5 and the consensus was unaware of the impending rise, we predicted that a substantial increase in the currency was coming. We expect it to rise beyond the 5 handle in the coming years. A rising CNY will be crucial for an economic shift toward consumption and will ease pressure on China’s trade partners. It will also add to Chinese asset valuation. A tacit “Beijing Consensus” could emerge without a formal announcement, as China would likely prefer to avoid being seen as pressured to revalue the CNY. Yesterday at CNBC International with Emily Chan Tan
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA55,201 次观看 • 29 天前
The Yuan is one of the most undervalued currencies in the world. Its weakness cools be misconstrued as a strategic valuation to help Chinese exports. An RMB appreciation is likely to initiate a revaluation in Chinese assets, similar to the episode in 2005. Yesterday at Bloomberg China Open 9:30am
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA217,287 次观看 • 6 个月前
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Being frugal is part of the Chinese culture. And “eat bitter” is a virtue and is against modern consumerism. At this juncture,Chinese households need all the help they could get, but fiscal deficit YTD actually shrank — it’s puzzling. It will be hard for Evergrande and Country Garden, two China’s biggest developers mired in trillions yuan of debt, to avoid default. With Dani Burger & Simone Foxman Full Surveillance show:
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA82,744 次观看 • 2 年前
China’s headline CPI beat, but mostly because of food supply issues and weather. As such, it’s not yet a sign of strengthening domestic demand. That said, recent import growth has surprised strongly on the upside. Recent thirty-point polices on consumption are a sign that to stimulate weak consumption is now a work focus. Last night the PBOC’s monetary policy report emphasizes “counter-cyclical policies 逆周期”, and removes the words “cross-cycle policies 跨周期”. This is the strongest hint yet to suggest policies are on their way. The PBOC has already cut 10bps interest rate ahead of the Fed. Chinese markets have been weathering the recent global market rout quite well. These initiatives must have helped. Of course, stimulus most likely can only produce one-off effects. To initiate secular changes, structural reforms will be needed. 09:30 Friday morning at CNBC International with TanvirGill
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA45,475 次观看 • 1 年前
Over the weekend, my annual outlook conference for my fans in Shanghai concluded. With this, this year’s annual outlook conferences in Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai have drawn the curtain. 000s attended my outlook conference this year. Thank you for your support. Wishing everyone More Money than God!
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA15,930 次观看 • 6 个月前