Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA
@HAOHONG_CFA • 355,067 subscribers
Person of the Year-Bloomberg BW;3xChina’s Most Influential Economist;3xEconomist of the Year-Asia Private Banker;“The man called China’s boom & bust”-Bloomberg
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在这个八月初的半小时演讲中，我讨论了泡沫如何产生，如何见顶，如何破灭；我六月中旬如何在预测全球半导体泡沫见顶崩裂。 泡沫亙古不变，人性难移使然。以前如此，以后也一样。 如果我们从历史中可以学到什么，那么就是我们其实什么都没有学到。 In this Chinese Ted Talk presentation recorded in early August, I discussed how I forecasted the crash of Global Semi/Kospi, and my call about the Chinese bubble burst in June 2015. $FXI
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA36,327 次观看 • 20 天前
The Yuan is one of the most undervalued currencies in the world. Its weakness cools be misconstrued as a strategic valuation to help Chinese exports. An RMB appreciation is likely to initiate a revaluation in Chinese assets, similar to the episode in 2005. Yesterday at Bloomberg China Open 9:30am
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA217,536 次观看 • 9 个月前
Trump arriving in Beijing. CNY, rare earths, tech/AI cooperation, and geopolitics will be high on the agenda. CNY is one of the most undervalued currencies in the world and is poised for significant appreciation. Rising trade terms, FX reserves, and the currency’s real effective exchange rate all point toward this emerging secular trend. In early 2025, when the CNY was still around 7.5 and the consensus was unaware of the impending rise, we predicted that a substantial increase in the currency was coming. We expect it to rise beyond the 5 handle in the coming years. A rising CNY will be crucial for an economic shift toward consumption and will ease pressure on China’s trade partners. It will also add to Chinese asset valuation. A tacit “Beijing Consensus” could emerge without a formal announcement, as China would likely prefer to avoid being seen as pressured to revalue the CNY. Yesterday at CNBC International with @EmilyCNBC
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA56,792 次观看 • 4 个月前
China showed hospitality to Trump and his entourage upon his arrival in Beijing. Given the conciliatory signs from both sides, markets are expecting favorable news on trade, the Yuan, rare earths, and Iran. Overnight, Chinese ADRs soared with huge volume. $HXC $KWEB $BABA $BIDU $ASHR $FXI $JD
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA28,615 次观看 • 4 个月前
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Being frugal is part of the Chinese culture. And “eat bitter” is a virtue and is against modern consumerism. At this juncture,Chinese households need all the help they could get, but fiscal deficit YTD actually shrank — it’s puzzling. It will be hard for Evergrande and Country Garden, two China’s biggest developers mired in trillions yuan of debt, to avoid default. With Dani Burger & Simone Foxman Full Surveillance show:
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA82,757 次观看 • 3 年前