Herbert Ong
@herbertong • 107,645 subscribers
Follow me for daily interviews of Tesla experts, $TSLA Milestones and Humanoid Bots
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🚨 Cathie Wood’s Starship math gets crazy very quickly! Larry Goldberg Larry Goldberg breaks down ARK’s estimate that a single Starship launch could eventually generate around $1 BILLION in connectivity revenue. Now combine that with Elon’s goal of 10,000 Starship flights per year. The theoretical math? Up to $10 TRILLION in annual revenue. Of course, there are huge assumptions here. Bandwidth demand, launch cadence, pricing, and network capacity all have to scale. But that’s the bigger point. If Starship goes from occasional launches to multiple flights per day, SpaceX starts looking like something very different from a rocket company. And orbital data centers could add another layer on top. The numbers are speculative. The scale of the idea isn’t. $SPCX
Herbert Ong3,782,317 次观看 • 1 个月前
Elon Musk: "It is absolutely insane to be deploying, providing the power and all of the electrical equipment, the cooling, the batteries, the networking, and everything else that's needed to turn on 220,000 GB300s a month. But that is actually what we're doing right now." SpaceX is "highly confident" of 13 GW of compute by end of 2027, and 23 GW is possible. It also casts its own turbine blades to skip a 12 to 18 month wait. $SPCX
Herbert Ong193,291 次观看 • 4 天前
🚀 Ron Baron now has roughly $25 billion invested in SpaceX, making it the largest position across his funds. After speaking with Elon Musk, Baron says Musk believes SpaceX is still "just getting started." The long-term vision is enormous: Starlink, reusable rockets, AI infrastructure, compute, chips, and a global communications network that few competitors can match. Ron Baron believes SpaceX is years ahead in several key industries and expects the investment to generate hundreds of billions of dollars over time. The most interesting part? SpaceX generated about $19 billion in revenue last year, yet some projections see a path toward $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030! That's the kind of scale investors are trying to wrap their heads around. 👀 $SPCX
Herbert Ong8,774,879 次观看 • 4 个月前
Data centers on the ground are limited by permits and power. SpaceX's answer is Starmind, orbital AI data centers with about 72 Nvidia chips and up to 175 kW per satellite. That's about 5,700 satellites per gigawatt. Terafab builds the chips, and Starship launches them. Jo Bhakdi thinks it goes from gigawatts to terawatts by 2028 or 2029. $SPCX
Herbert Ong496,967 次观看 • 24 天前
SpaceX's CFO says Starlink demand is unprecedented. The interesting part is who's driving it! Larry Goldberg Larry Goldberg breaks down the Goldman conference interview. Bret Johnsen reiterated a coming $100M revenue run rate and pinned the demand on AI! Think about it. People use data in bursts. Robots, robotaxis, and AI agents use it nonstop, and they need coverage everywhere. Starship is what makes it scale. Bigger payloads mean direct-to-cell, and satellites with extra solar and radiators could handle orbital compute. Throw in reported Nvidia chips and Starlink starts looking less like a pipe and more like a compute layer! For cars, that means Grok that never loses signal. $SPCX
Herbert Ong454,961 次观看 • 27 天前
Tesla VP for Vehicle Engineering Lars walked Henry Catchpole through how the Roadster beats the tire limit. Rubber tops out around 1.0 mu of grip. Four 20 kW fans, built on the heat pump's compressor motor, suck the car onto the road with skirts, so it holds over 2 g in corners even below 50 mph. The wing actuators are borrowed Optimus leg actuators. A 200-liter tank at 10,000 psi feeds cold-gas thrusters with more than 80 kN of thrust, about what a single fighter jet engine puts out. 0–60 takes 0.55 seconds as a rollout figure. Full interview from Hagerty. $TSLA $SPCX
Herbert Ong121,533 次观看 • 8 天前
TSMC is exploring a role in Terafab, Elon's Texas chip project. Elon's reply was "Just discussions, but something may come of it." Jeff Lutz 🔋 calls it the battery playbook again. Build at a scale nobody else will, and suppliers can't afford to sit out. Intel's already in, Samsung's at the table, and now TSMC. The likeliest deal has TSMC owning and running the fab, with SpaceX investing or committing to buy chips. C.C. Wei says a new fab takes 2–3 years, plus 1–2 more to ramp. Elon got the leverage before a single wafer shipped. 👀 $TSLA $SPCX
Herbert Ong247,998 次观看 • 18 天前
75% of new North American Tesla buyers subscribed to FSD at delivery in Q3, up from 55% in Q2. That's even with a free first month. Tesla now has more than 1.7 million paying FSD customers worldwide, and about half are on subscriptions. FutureAzA estimates that's roughly $1B a year in extra recurring revenue, and he calls it a wake-up call for competitors. If you want a car you can buy in the US that drives itself, there's one choice. $TSLA
Herbert Ong35,716 次观看 • 2 天前
Starship just loaded ship and booster with liquid oxygen and liquid methane in about 30 minutes, reportedly faster than a Falcon 9! But fueling isn't the limit. Turnaround is. Larry Larry Goldberg breaks down the reported schedule. Flight 15 is targeting Oct. 19 and Flight 16 is targeting Oct. 30, carrying Starlink 30-1 with possibly up to 60 V3 satellites. That's an 11-day gap between flights. Getting to one flight per day would mean compressing it by about 11x. Pad refurbishment, booster reflight, and range availability are where that gets decided. If Oct. 30 holds, Starship stops being a test vehicle and becomes a revenue-generating launch system. $SPCX
Herbert Ong174,831 次观看 • 27 天前
The Roadster's battery is the fastest-charging pack Tesla has built, going from 15 to 80% in 10 minutes. That's 65% of the pack in 10 minutes, or 6.5% a minute. Range is claimed at over 300 miles. On track, that means about 25 to 30 minutes of full performance, then a quick recharge, and you can keep going all day. As Lars put it, the driver needs a break before the car does. Most of the aero is hidden. Barge boards, vents and front wings that pivot up to 90 degrees stay tucked away for low drag until the car needs them. Via Hagerty. $TSLA
Herbert Ong35,887 次观看 • 8 天前
Elon Just Put Rocket Thrusters On A Tesla? Tesla Roadster 2.0 Unveiling | Supercut Pauses and dead silences removed to save you time, plus timestamps included so you can jump to key sections easily. 0:00 Welcome from SpaceX McGregor 1:21 Elon takes the stage 3:50 Countdown to first flight demo 6:29 Fan suction for upside-down driving 8:05 Thrusters and longer flight demo 10:03 Air tank and thruster specs 11:27 Up-close look at new Roadster 16:21 0-60 in 0.81 seconds 17:39 Evel Knievel canyon jump challenge 18:40 Production planned for 2028 $TSLA $SPCX
Herbert Ong37,389 次观看 • 9 天前
" I know Elon's attitude towards AI, and he's very optimistic about its future. And obviously he's working on some of the most important AI areas. xAI is working on foundation cognitive intelligence AI, Tesla's working on autonomous vehicles, and Optimus is for humanoid robotics. These three areas of AI are the three most important areas of AI. And so I think he's working on exactly the right things," says Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on Elon Musk and AI Ed Ludlow Bloomberg Technology $TSLA $NVDA
Herbert Ong1,979,780 次观看 • 1 年前
🚨 Tesla FSD v14.3.3 may be one of the biggest feeling upgrades yet 👀 Jeff Lutz 🔋 says early testers are seeing: • Much less driver-monitoring nagging • Smoother, more human-like driving • Faster Smart Summon (up to 8 mph) • “Hey Grok” support • Better visualizations Some users are reportedly going over a minute with no nags at all! $TSLA
Herbert Ong476,712 次观看 • 5 个月前
🚨 It feels like a bunch of Elon’s “coming soon” projects are suddenly becoming real at the same time! Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet is now estimated at 900+ cars, Cybercab has its big Sept. 3 event, and the Semi rollout follows on Sept. 24. Meanwhile, Tesla is building out Optimus production, expanding autonomy into more cities, and SpaceX is planning a massive $100B Starbase Louisiana project. Any one of these would be a big story on its own. Having them all ramp around the same time is what makes this interesting. The promises are turning into actual factories, vehicles and launch dates. Now comes the hard part: scaling them. $TSLA $SPCX
Herbert Ong160,584 次观看 • 1 个月前
Six months into Cybercab production, the factory doesn't look like the limit anymore. Jeff Lutz 🔋 points out how unusual that is for an all-new product. It has a new assembly system, reaction-injection-molded panels, a new motor, and brake-by-wire. A steady ramp of hundreds to about a thousand a week, built in pulses so engineers can fix yield and cycle time, is a dream case. Rushing a new product risks scrapping the first thousand. Now the slope is changing. Texas registrations went from 169 to 319 in one day on Oct 8, and 150 in a day beats the old record of 43. Cars also go from registration to the street quickly. The slow parts now are safety sign-off, keep-out zones, and hand-done charging and cleaning. Ashok says Dallas is next. $TSLA
Herbert Ong34,992 次观看 • 12 天前
Aerial shots of SpaceX's new Brownsville site show a building with no windows or loading docks, and a second level inside. That's data center layout, with compute on top and infrastructure below. A matching foundation is going in right next to it. Cern Basher points to the real tell: about 400 MW of gas turbines already on site, with a pipeline running in. A warehouse never needs that. Each of these centers takes 400 to 500 MW. $SPCX
Herbert Ong20,481 次观看 • 7 天前
Optimus V3 still hasn't been shown, but plenty around it is moving. A Tesla supplier's IPO filing says V3 hardware is "essentially frozen." Tesla is hiring for high-volume Optimus assembly in Austin and a fleet coordinator across multiple sites. And Elon cut AI5's RAM in half to get enough volume for Optimus. The holdup is the hand. Elon's test is driving a tiny screw into wood and opening a pickle jar. Earnings Wednesday, 2:30pm PT / 4:30pm CT / 5:30pm ET. $TSLA
Herbert Ong15,718 次观看 • 5 天前
Brian Wang thinks $SPCX hits a $500B revenue run rate in 2027. He says each mini yard adds about $26B in annual ARR, and that number triples if 2027 is a "Reuben" year. Tesla took 20-plus years to reach $100B a year. Brian's answer is that $500B at Adam Jonas's 30x PE gets you to about $1,119 a share. His own model is even higher. A report says SpaceX keeps 60% of its planned 10 GW for itself. nextbigfuture's math on that is $50B per gigawatt per year of monetization, which is CFO-level money. The stock debate isn't whether the revenue shows up. It's whether the market pays a growth multiple or a cash-machine multiple. $SPCX $TSLA
Herbert Ong38,998 次观看 • 16 天前