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Claude is Walter Cronkite for the stock market. Michael Mauboussin talks about how a breakdown in diversity leads to bubbles and crashes. Gavin thinks Claude might be causing that right now. ”Everyone I know in the public equity investment business, whether retail or institutional, everything immediately, every piece of news gets fed into Claude—Claude, Claude code, sometimes a Claude agent. Claude is probabilistic. There's probably not that much variation in the way it's interpreting this news. People talk about the fragmentation of media and how it used to be like Walter Cronkite was the only voice of truth, and now we don't have that anymore. It's like Claude is Walter Cronkite for the stock market, and everybody just believes whatever it says.”

Claude is Walter Cronkite for the stock market. Michael Mauboussin talks about how a breakdown in diversity leads to bubbles and crashes. Gavin thinks Claude might be causing that right now. ”Everyone I know in the public equity investment business, whether retail or institutional, everything immediately, every piece of news gets fed into Claude—Claude, Claude code, sometimes a Claude agent. Claude is probabilistic. There's probably not that much variation in the way it's interpreting this news. People talk about the fragmentation of media and how it used to be like Walter Cronkite was the only voice of truth, and now we don't have that anymore. It's like Claude is Walter Cronkite for the stock market, and everybody just believes whatever it says.”

Invest Like the Best

316,682 views • 9 days ago

Sam Altman on VCs: “The number of investors that actually show up and try to help you is unbelievably small. Josh Kushner (Joshua Kushner), absolute MVP investor, unbelievable, has worked around the clock for what feels like years to help us. He's the only investor that I could point to that is proactively incredibly helpful all of the time. The constant, just relentless all-in support is surprisingly rare…but I think founders really love that and it actually moves the needle.”

Sam Altman on VCs: “The number of investors that actually show up and try to help you is unbelievably small. Josh Kushner (Joshua Kushner), absolute MVP investor, unbelievable, has worked around the clock for what feels like years to help us. He's the only investor that I could point to that is proactively incredibly helpful all of the time. The constant, just relentless all-in support is surprisingly rare…but I think founders really love that and it actually moves the needle.”

Invest Like the Best

171,164 views • 15 days ago

Matthew forecasts an unprecedented natural gas shortage starting in 2028. He names four winners if he's right: gas producers, midstream, nuclear, and solar. (1) Natural gas producers in the U.S. and Canada should be clear winners, especially those with future inventory of wells to drill without infrastructure constraints. "Expand Energy is probably at the top of that list. They control 70% of remaining core Haynesville wells. The stock has dropped. The assets have not changed. It has some of the highest quality rock in the country." "Choosing the specific companies with real, rather than perceived or merely disclosed, high-return well inventory will matter. Ask to see engineered future wells on a map. Ask for the timelines." He also names $CRK, and $RRC ranks first in Appalachia. "Range has significant room to grow production and materially grow returns to investors." (2) Vital midstream assets should be well-positioned to benefit. "Natural gas infrastructure development has lagged the entire 'powering AI' thesis, the imminent 20 Bcf per day growth in supply, 20 Bcf per day of approved LNG project growth, and more than 5 Bcf per day of natural gas-fueled generation growth. The systems strategically positioned to grow throughput and deliverability will win." He names $KMI, TC Energy ($TRP), and Pembina ($PBA). (3) Large-scale nuclear is the only scalable path to avoiding acute baseload electricity shortages. "There's no bridge fuel other than solar and wind, because currently natural gas is the only flex fuel to get us to when we can bring on nuclear. Large scale nukes are the only solution that makes sense, which points us primarily to the AP1000 Westinghouse units. Westinghouse is deeply undervalued within Cameco today." "SMRs are a band-aid on a bullet wound. A nuclear renaissance is coming." Ha names Cameco ($CCJ) and $BWXT. (4) Solar and batteries are critical to the reliability of the U.S. grid. "Solar assets stand to benefit from a windfall. The marginal plant's fuel price is rising while sun costs the same. Residential solar is really one of the only ways to protect yourself from what you pay for electricity at your house once gas gets really tight. We think residential solar grows exponentially from here, even without tax incentives." "That margin expands. The market has not priced it." He names $XIFR and $CWEN at utility scale and $RUN in residential.

Matthew forecasts an unprecedented natural gas shortage starting in 2028. He names four winners if he's right: gas producers, midstream, nuclear, and solar. (1) Natural gas producers in the U.S. and Canada should be clear winners, especially those with future inventory of wells to drill without infrastructure constraints. "Expand Energy is probably at the top of that list. They control 70% of remaining core Haynesville wells. The stock has dropped. The assets have not changed. It has some of the highest quality rock in the country." "Choosing the specific companies with real, rather than perceived or merely disclosed, high-return well inventory will matter. Ask to see engineered future wells on a map. Ask for the timelines." He also names $CRK, and $RRC ranks first in Appalachia. "Range has significant room to grow production and materially grow returns to investors." (2) Vital midstream assets should be well-positioned to benefit. "Natural gas infrastructure development has lagged the entire 'powering AI' thesis, the imminent 20 Bcf per day growth in supply, 20 Bcf per day of approved LNG project growth, and more than 5 Bcf per day of natural gas-fueled generation growth. The systems strategically positioned to grow throughput and deliverability will win." He names $KMI, TC Energy ($TRP), and Pembina ($PBA). (3) Large-scale nuclear is the only scalable path to avoiding acute baseload electricity shortages. "There's no bridge fuel other than solar and wind, because currently natural gas is the only flex fuel to get us to when we can bring on nuclear. Large scale nukes are the only solution that makes sense, which points us primarily to the AP1000 Westinghouse units. Westinghouse is deeply undervalued within Cameco today." "SMRs are a band-aid on a bullet wound. A nuclear renaissance is coming." Ha names Cameco ($CCJ) and $BWXT. (4) Solar and batteries are critical to the reliability of the U.S. grid. "Solar assets stand to benefit from a windfall. The marginal plant's fuel price is rising while sun costs the same. Residential solar is really one of the only ways to protect yourself from what you pay for electricity at your house once gas gets really tight. We think residential solar grows exponentially from here, even without tax incentives." "That margin expands. The market has not priced it." He names $XIFR and $CWEN at utility scale and $RUN in residential.

Invest Like the Best

157,712 views • 23 days ago

Palantir alumni have gone on to found an unusual number of successful companies, and the talent density inside the company remains incredibly high. CTO Shyam Sankar on how they think about talent: "How did Bruce Banner become the Incredible Hulk? It wasn't progressive overload. It was a near fatal dose of gamma rays. There's absolutely an element where we're taking people and just irradiating them. You're not sure if they're going to come out the other end. A lot of environments don't have that by default. Really talented people are highly uneven. Particularly for high achieving people when they're young, they misattribute what their superpower is. They think it's this thing they do that requires a fair amount of effort, and therefore they get a dopamine hit when they succeed. Superpowers are effortless. This thing that's effortless for me, other people who are really smart can't seem to do. All of your contributions to the world are gonna come from your superpower. Everything else is basically a waste of time. There are some weaknesses you have where you're six standard deviations below average. It's not something you can work on. The only strategy for Superman around kryptonite was to avoid it."

Palantir alumni have gone on to found an unusual number of successful companies, and the talent density inside the company remains incredibly high. CTO Shyam Sankar on how they think about talent: "How did Bruce Banner become the Incredible Hulk? It wasn't progressive overload. It was a near fatal dose of gamma rays. There's absolutely an element where we're taking people and just irradiating them. You're not sure if they're going to come out the other end. A lot of environments don't have that by default. Really talented people are highly uneven. Particularly for high achieving people when they're young, they misattribute what their superpower is. They think it's this thing they do that requires a fair amount of effort, and therefore they get a dopamine hit when they succeed. Superpowers are effortless. This thing that's effortless for me, other people who are really smart can't seem to do. All of your contributions to the world are gonna come from your superpower. Everything else is basically a waste of time. There are some weaknesses you have where you're six standard deviations below average. It's not something you can work on. The only strategy for Superman around kryptonite was to avoid it."

Invest Like the Best

116,721 views • 28 days ago

SK Hynix recently reached a $1 trillion market cap. SanDisk started the year at $35B and is now worth $230B. Dylan (Dylan Patel) on why memory prices will still double or triple from here: "People are like, the memory story is overplayed. No, you don't get it. DRAM will double or triple from here still, because that's how much capacity is required. Memory can only grow capacity low double digit percentages a year. 20-30% a year, even less for NAND, a little bit higher for DRAM. Even though the demand signal was very strong at the end of 2025, the memory companies immediately started reacting. None of that incremental capacity really gets here until 2028, even if they wanted to build as fast as possible. So the result is memory prices have gone through the roof. They're going to double and triple again. DRAM, especially. And they have to steal capacity from somewhere else. And the only way to steal capacity from somewhere else in a capitalist economy is demand destruction via higher pricing." Publish date: April 23, 2026

SK Hynix recently reached a $1 trillion market cap. SanDisk started the year at $35B and is now worth $230B. Dylan (Dylan Patel) on why memory prices will still double or triple from here: "People are like, the memory story is overplayed. No, you don't get it. DRAM will double or triple from here still, because that's how much capacity is required. Memory can only grow capacity low double digit percentages a year. 20-30% a year, even less for NAND, a little bit higher for DRAM. Even though the demand signal was very strong at the end of 2025, the memory companies immediately started reacting. None of that incremental capacity really gets here until 2028, even if they wanted to build as fast as possible. So the result is memory prices have gone through the roof. They're going to double and triple again. DRAM, especially. And they have to steal capacity from somewhere else. And the only way to steal capacity from somewhere else in a capitalist economy is demand destruction via higher pricing." Publish date: April 23, 2026

Invest Like the Best

105,024 views • 29 days ago

Gavin Baker (Gavin Baker) says the disaggregation of inference can extend GPU useful lives from 3-4 years to 10-15. That may single-handedly save private credit and reduce the financing rates for GPUs, which will drive demand and help finance the build-out. "The disaggregation of prefill and inference is going to be amazing for the useful lives of GPU and may single-handedly save private credit. Private credit is in pain from these SaaS loans. But there's a lot of private credit in GPUs too. They were underwriting that to 3-4. The disaggregation of inference means that these GPUs are going to have 10 or 15-year lives. The AI skeptics are like, "Oh, these companies are all cooking their books. The useful life of a GPU is only a year or two. The useful life of a CPU is only four years because the rapid technological change." No. What rapid technological change has done with the disaggregation of prefill and inference is you can put a Cerebras system or Groq LPUs effectively in front of a Hopper or even an Ampere, use that Hopper and Ampere for prefill, and extend the useful life of that GPU until it melts. This is going to be really good for the whole private credit industry. It's gonna help finance the AI build-out. Because if you can start to finance GPUs at 5% or 6% instead of – I think CoreWeave's lowest financing was low sevens – that actually mathematically changes the cost to finance this build-out."

Gavin Baker (Gavin Baker) says the disaggregation of inference can extend GPU useful lives from 3-4 years to 10-15. That may single-handedly save private credit and reduce the financing rates for GPUs, which will drive demand and help finance the build-out. "The disaggregation of prefill and inference is going to be amazing for the useful lives of GPU and may single-handedly save private credit. Private credit is in pain from these SaaS loans. But there's a lot of private credit in GPUs too. They were underwriting that to 3-4. The disaggregation of inference means that these GPUs are going to have 10 or 15-year lives. The AI skeptics are like, "Oh, these companies are all cooking their books. The useful life of a GPU is only a year or two. The useful life of a CPU is only four years because the rapid technological change." No. What rapid technological change has done with the disaggregation of prefill and inference is you can put a Cerebras system or Groq LPUs effectively in front of a Hopper or even an Ampere, use that Hopper and Ampere for prefill, and extend the useful life of that GPU until it melts. This is going to be really good for the whole private credit industry. It's gonna help finance the AI build-out. Because if you can start to finance GPUs at 5% or 6% instead of – I think CoreWeave's lowest financing was low sevens – that actually mathematically changes the cost to finance this build-out."

Invest Like the Best

211,336 views • 2 months ago

SpaceX reportedly accounts for ~45% of D1 Capital's venture and private equity book. At a $1.75T IPO valuation, that stake would be worth about $20B. When we spoke with Dan Sundheim in February, here's how he described the investment: "SpaceX was pretty obvious to me that the launch business, at a minimum, was going to be a very good business. What they had achieved, just from an engineering perspective, was insane. If I could buy a company that had achieved the most amazing engineering feat I'd ever seen, at some multiple of revenue with very little cash burn at that point, I didn't know what was going to come, I just knew that the skew was very good. The initial prognosis was just always that they were going to be a low cost provider of launch. Starship is a game changer, which we knew about fairly early on, but didn't know if it would work. And what that means, very simply, is that the cost of launching everything goes down dramatically, 97% or whatever. And the engineering that they've done with the satellites to harness solar power and be able to deliver really high-speed bandwidth has surprised me to the upside. And there's a lot of software that goes into that too, just given these networks of satellites are all communicating. The ramification of that is that the telecom market globally is now the TAM. They've come so far down the cost curve, I think that in a relatively short amount of time they're going to be dramatically cheaper than any other form of delivering broadband."

SpaceX reportedly accounts for ~45% of D1 Capital's venture and private equity book. At a $1.75T IPO valuation, that stake would be worth about $20B. When we spoke with Dan Sundheim in February, here's how he described the investment: "SpaceX was pretty obvious to me that the launch business, at a minimum, was going to be a very good business. What they had achieved, just from an engineering perspective, was insane. If I could buy a company that had achieved the most amazing engineering feat I'd ever seen, at some multiple of revenue with very little cash burn at that point, I didn't know what was going to come, I just knew that the skew was very good. The initial prognosis was just always that they were going to be a low cost provider of launch. Starship is a game changer, which we knew about fairly early on, but didn't know if it would work. And what that means, very simply, is that the cost of launching everything goes down dramatically, 97% or whatever. And the engineering that they've done with the satellites to harness solar power and be able to deliver really high-speed bandwidth has surprised me to the upside. And there's a lot of software that goes into that too, just given these networks of satellites are all communicating. The ramification of that is that the telecom market globally is now the TAM. They've come so far down the cost curve, I think that in a relatively short amount of time they're going to be dramatically cheaper than any other form of delivering broadband."

Invest Like the Best

138,372 views • 2 months ago

Gavin on why people misunderstand what makes TSMC so valuable: "One of the most undervalued pieces of the supply chain story is that almost none of these things are buy it once and never talk to the vendor again. You have to go collaborate. That is the most important part of being successful in chips. People look at the tech, and the tech is the best in the world. But the real value is all in the service. TSMC's customer service is way better than I've seen at any company in any industry. If you say, we think you can improve your yield by making this change, they will go run an experiment on their own dime to see if they can get the higher yield. When we found we were right and it worked, they moved it over to the rest of the line. If I go to a steelworks plant and say I want you to change the composition of the steel, they'll say screw you. Not TSMC. It's why they're number one, and why they're going to win."

Gavin on why people misunderstand what makes TSMC so valuable: "One of the most undervalued pieces of the supply chain story is that almost none of these things are buy it once and never talk to the vendor again. You have to go collaborate. That is the most important part of being successful in chips. People look at the tech, and the tech is the best in the world. But the real value is all in the service. TSMC's customer service is way better than I've seen at any company in any industry. If you say, we think you can improve your yield by making this change, they will go run an experiment on their own dime to see if they can get the higher yield. When we found we were right and it worked, they moved it over to the rest of the line. If I go to a steelworks plant and say I want you to change the composition of the steel, they'll say screw you. Not TSMC. It's why they're number one, and why they're going to win."

Invest Like the Best

71,350 views • 1 month ago

Sam Altman: "I'm not a jobs doomer at all. I think there are gonna be tons of jobs.” If we could go back to 2019 and show people our latest model, not only would they say that it's AGI, they would say that the economy would have been completely upended. And that has not happened. Anytime you're that wrong and that confident, which I think we were as a field, you have to update. AI is just very jagged. It's like superhuman genius in some ways, like dumb toddler in others. And people have, so far, extremely complementary skills to AI. It’s not taste…the world may need a new kind of word for the kind of judgment that people are very good at that AIs seem to really deeply struggle with. You can go hire an AI consultant right now or talk to an AI sales rep or hire an AI engineer. And somehow most people seem to still really prefer interacting with a human. I definitely would rather engage with a person than engage with an AI for almost everything. Human values have value because they're human. We are deeply hardwired to care about people.”

Sam Altman: "I'm not a jobs doomer at all. I think there are gonna be tons of jobs.” If we could go back to 2019 and show people our latest model, not only would they say that it's AGI, they would say that the economy would have been completely upended. And that has not happened. Anytime you're that wrong and that confident, which I think we were as a field, you have to update. AI is just very jagged. It's like superhuman genius in some ways, like dumb toddler in others. And people have, so far, extremely complementary skills to AI. It’s not taste…the world may need a new kind of word for the kind of judgment that people are very good at that AIs seem to really deeply struggle with. You can go hire an AI consultant right now or talk to an AI sales rep or hire an AI engineer. And somehow most people seem to still really prefer interacting with a human. I definitely would rather engage with a person than engage with an AI for almost everything. Human values have value because they're human. We are deeply hardwired to care about people.”

Invest Like the Best

20,730 views • 16 days ago

Gavin's takes on Microsoft, Google, Meta, & Amazon: Microsoft ($MSFT): "I like Satya, I admire him. He's an exceptional CEO, and I give him a lot of credit for the decisions he's made. But he did go from, "We're going to make Google dance," to being the product manager of Copilot in 3 years. The decision Satya is making now, which the market has punished him for, but I think is the right decision — who knows how fast Azure could be growing if they were willing to just sell GPUs to OpenAI. 'We're going to use our compute internally to make our own products better.' One reason Copilot was so bad, or has been so bad, is that there wasn't enough compute available. They're fixing that. He's making good decisions that are risky decisions, to position Microsoft for this world where frontier models are no longer API-accessible. It's a really courageous decision that I give him a lot of credit for. Microsoft probably would be an $800 stock today if they were using their GPUs to serve solely OpenAI and Anthropic's capacity instead of using them for their own products." Google ($GOOG): "Google was incredible last year because they had that TPU advantage, which is now gone. The reason I think they're still in a great position is they have the most compute of everyone. We talked about the value of installed bases being higher as a result of shortages — they have the biggest installed base of compute. Google I/O is this week. If they don't release something that even slightly leapfrogs OpenAI and/or Claude, that's interesting. It's not a disaster for Google, it's just interesting. Between the amount of data they have, the YouTube data, the amount of compute, the search business — Google's never not going to be in a good position. You see that with GCP going crazy." Meta ($META): "You've got to give Zuckerberg immense credit, for what he's done in terms of making Meta an AI-first company internally. He is the only one of those true internet giants to have done that. I give him a lot of credit for paying up when he did for contracts, that talent. And Muse was a really big upside surprise. It was the first model from MSL, and it's not on the Pareto frontier with xAI, Google's one entrant, OpenAI and Claude, but it's pretty close. That was very impressive to me. So Meta is in a better position — still not as strong of an absolute position as Google, but a better position." Amazon ($AMZN): "Amazon is in a really strong position because of Trainium. You're going to see real P&L efficiencies from robotics over the next 18 months in their retail business. I actually think Nova — their internal models are not where Muse is, but they're better than they get credit for. The two companies who are the most deeply engaged with startups are Amazon and Nvidia by a mile. It's going to end up being a pretty big advantage for Nvidia and Amazon — with Google right behind them — to have this engagement that you just don't see from these other hyperscalers."

Gavin's takes on Microsoft, Google, Meta, & Amazon: Microsoft ($MSFT): "I like Satya, I admire him. He's an exceptional CEO, and I give him a lot of credit for the decisions he's made. But he did go from, "We're going to make Google dance," to being the product manager of Copilot in 3 years. The decision Satya is making now, which the market has punished him for, but I think is the right decision — who knows how fast Azure could be growing if they were willing to just sell GPUs to OpenAI. 'We're going to use our compute internally to make our own products better.' One reason Copilot was so bad, or has been so bad, is that there wasn't enough compute available. They're fixing that. He's making good decisions that are risky decisions, to position Microsoft for this world where frontier models are no longer API-accessible. It's a really courageous decision that I give him a lot of credit for. Microsoft probably would be an $800 stock today if they were using their GPUs to serve solely OpenAI and Anthropic's capacity instead of using them for their own products." Google ($GOOG): "Google was incredible last year because they had that TPU advantage, which is now gone. The reason I think they're still in a great position is they have the most compute of everyone. We talked about the value of installed bases being higher as a result of shortages — they have the biggest installed base of compute. Google I/O is this week. If they don't release something that even slightly leapfrogs OpenAI and/or Claude, that's interesting. It's not a disaster for Google, it's just interesting. Between the amount of data they have, the YouTube data, the amount of compute, the search business — Google's never not going to be in a good position. You see that with GCP going crazy." Meta ($META): "You've got to give Zuckerberg immense credit, for what he's done in terms of making Meta an AI-first company internally. He is the only one of those true internet giants to have done that. I give him a lot of credit for paying up when he did for contracts, that talent. And Muse was a really big upside surprise. It was the first model from MSL, and it's not on the Pareto frontier with xAI, Google's one entrant, OpenAI and Claude, but it's pretty close. That was very impressive to me. So Meta is in a better position — still not as strong of an absolute position as Google, but a better position." Amazon ($AMZN): "Amazon is in a really strong position because of Trainium. You're going to see real P&L efficiencies from robotics over the next 18 months in their retail business. I actually think Nova — their internal models are not where Muse is, but they're better than they get credit for. The two companies who are the most deeply engaged with startups are Amazon and Nvidia by a mile. It's going to end up being a pretty big advantage for Nvidia and Amazon — with Google right behind them — to have this engagement that you just don't see from these other hyperscalers."

Invest Like the Best

52,492 views • 2 months ago

A truly memorable response to Patrick's final question. @buhrman_rick

A truly memorable response to Patrick's final question. @buhrman_rick

Invest Like the Best

249,642 views • 2 years ago

Shyam explains how China thinks about conflict: "It's not enough for China to be prosperous. America must fail." "There a formidable adversary in the sense that their conception of war is deception. Our conception of war is kinetic. It's the lone heroic cowboy against the odds winning through heroism." "If you look at agriculture, it's a business decision whether you want to buy American soybeans or not. It's a different thing when you're trying to smuggle in agricultural funguses, so we can't grow soybeans. That's the shape of what's happening." "A lot of the things that are happening are below what we would consider the threshold of conflict, but it absolutely is conflict. It is system destruction warfare." "There'll be some point at which we just react. The best quote I have from Admiral is it's no longer John Boyd's OODA loop -- observe, orient, decide, act -- it's the American OODA loop -- observe, overreact, destroy, apologize."

Shyam explains how China thinks about conflict: "It's not enough for China to be prosperous. America must fail." "There a formidable adversary in the sense that their conception of war is deception. Our conception of war is kinetic. It's the lone heroic cowboy against the odds winning through heroism." "If you look at agriculture, it's a business decision whether you want to buy American soybeans or not. It's a different thing when you're trying to smuggle in agricultural funguses, so we can't grow soybeans. That's the shape of what's happening." "A lot of the things that are happening are below what we would consider the threshold of conflict, but it absolutely is conflict. It is system destruction warfare." "There'll be some point at which we just react. The best quote I have from Admiral is it's no longer John Boyd's OODA loop -- observe, orient, decide, act -- it's the American OODA loop -- observe, overreact, destroy, apologize."

Invest Like the Best

18,828 views • 5 months ago

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