Jason D Farhang
@jason61987 • 16,654 subscribers
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Sunday August 30, 2026, 8:44 AM: The Latest EU1 and 6Z GFS this morning show an even clearer picture: September 5-7, 2026, a tropical system will move into Central and Southern California during Labor Day weekend. It will be welcomed by the positioning of the upper-level low axis off Northern California, which will draw this northward trajectory and gain even more traction just 36 hours ago. The monsoonal high axis position is a perfect position working in tandem with triple agreement. In addition, you have very warm sea surface temperature 77F - 80F off the Southern California coastline due to our strong El Nino. Everything that's been talked about this entire summer is falling into place. Not quite checkmate yet. I'm watching the next 4 days. #CAwx #HurricaneSeason2026 #ElNiño
Jason D Farhang1,352,816 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Monday, August 31, 2026, 5:44 AM: Let’s break down what’s happening atmospherically so you can understand how this tropical system is approaching Southern California by Labor Day weekend. I know many of you don’t understand what’s going on so I’m trying to explain the best way I can. So currently are two merging 564 DM Gulf of Alaskan lows axis that I’m watching that’s going be dropping southward latitude approximately 345 miles south of Humboldt County to Santa Cruz, California by early Friday at 3 AM at the same time. There’s also going to be a 594 DM monsoonal high axis that is going to reconnect in a perfect position over northern Arizona to southern Colorado by Friday at 12 PM. The combination of the two upper-level lows and the monsoonal high will create an unusually northward steering gradient right into Southern California for the pending tropical system this upcoming weekend. Our tropical system starts going under the start of its intensification process by Thursday at 10 PM just north of La Paz Mexico, approximately 200 miles west of this region. The system which will be known as Marie, should become a hurricane and will continue to move on a northward trajectory. and start showing up south of San Diego by Saturday at 6 AM, at least as a low-grade tropical system at this point or tropical storm status. There will be different variations with computer solutions in the next several days from Santa Barbara to San Diego back to Los Angeles back to Orange County. This is a very normal situation with a tropical system, especially in Southern California as we will watch in real time what actually happens with this system. Yes, these are unprecedented times ahead with a strong El Niño, but this is what is happening currently this is not fear-mongering; this is just what’s happening in our atmosphere this is not computer models anymore. This is the real-life situation we need to pay attention to for your holiday weekend. Yes, it’s been over 87 years since we’ve had a direct coastal impact from a tropical system, but we need to really pay attention to all the logistics of the system's atmospheric development. I will continue updating this as we go along. We always hope for the best, but we prepare for the worst. #CAwx #HurricaneSeason2026
Jason D Farhang191,672 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Wednesday, October 21, 2026, 9:48 AM: As promised, the beautifully displayed satellite view shows a powerful El Niño-driven storm bringing very heavy rain from San Luis Obispo to Los Angeles counties over the next several hours. This storm will also affect Orange, San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties, and it has already brought severe weather to Arizona, including Prescott, this morning. Severe thunderstorms and coastal flooding are possible, with 0.80 to 2.5 inches of rain projected. There’s also a possibility of isolated tornadoes along the coastal zones, also known as waterspouts. #CAwx #AZwx #Californiastorms #ElNiño
Jason D Farhang17,342 просмотров • 8 дней назад
Tuesday October 6, 2026, 8:19 AM: The latest EU1 consistent trending highly assertive and dynamic Gulf of Alaska low that is expected to move off of Santa Barbara by approximately 80 to 124 miles off the coast as early as Sunday afternoon to Sunday night. This complex system will interact with the unusually warm sea surface temperatures caused by the very strong El Niño, while also drawing large batches of tropical moisture from Rachel's axis around the large high-pressure ridge over Texas. Currently, our ongoing intense heatwave is likely to continue through Friday. Rainfall estimates over the last 36 hours between 1.5 to 3.5 inches by both the EU1 and GFS models are starting to come into better alignment. Disclaimer: These rainfall amounts may be adjusted in the next 24 to 42 hours and up to Saturday 7PM. The reason based on the precise movement of the Gulf of Alaskan low pressure system and the remnant moisture from Rachel’s timing and intensity for which part of Southern California gets the most rainfall. This early and aggressive storm marks the beginning of what promises to be a very wet rainy season. Anticipate above average rainfall in the coming winter months, as escalating warmer sea surface temperatures have the capacity to release substantial amounts of precipitation rapidly. Additionally, the recent heat wave has further warmed the local ocean waters, contributing to the potential for significant rainfall. I will continue to update you on this dynamic weather situation in the next 42 to 72 hours. #CAwx #Rachel #GulfofAlaskanlow #HurricaneSeason2026 #ElNiño
Jason D Farhang31,589 просмотров • 23 дней назад
Tuesday September 1, 2026, 7:02 AM: Marie has formed off the coast of Acapulco, Mexico, and she looks quite mean. I’m going to continue monitoring this situation very closely over the next few days. I’m watching a low-pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska and the monsoonal high axis position. See if it has the right timing to bring the system towards Southern California that has been the discrepancy and debate here across all social media. No one is paying attention to those two key factors here: the timing of it, and sometimes computer models can have a difficult time determining those unusual anomalies, as occurred with Hillary, so let’s keep an eye on this. As we’re no longer in models anymore, we’re now looking at the actual atmosphere and how it truly behaves. #CAwx #HurricaneSeason2026
Jason D Farhang56,268 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Tuesday, September 15, 2026, 3:20 PM: A baja low axis has developed in the last 6 to 8 hours. This is a quickly developing situation that will bring very heavy flooding rain to much of Arizona and Utah in the next 24 to 36 hours in combination with the monsoon high axis over Texas and Louisiana. The combination of this will create a significant flash flooding threat for New Mexico, central and southern Arizona, including Phoenix and Tucson, Utah, and Colorado. There’s already a flash flood watch for all of Arizona and spreading into Utah as I speak. #AZwx #Monsoon #ElNiño
Jason D Farhang38,461 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Sunday, August 30, 2026, 10:30 PM: The most recent EU1 0Z Valid 8/31/2026 shows higher confidence trending for the latest tropical direct trajectory impacts on the Southern California region, specifically between Malibu and Long Beach approximately 45 to 80 miles off the coast of our region, early on Sunday, September 6, 2026, 5 AM to 11AM. This upcoming tropical weather event is shaping up to be significant, reminiscent of historical events like September 25, 1939, which was 87 years ago. Latest recent values continue show the strong wind potential with estimated gusts ranging from 55MPH to 85MPH. Many residents in Los Angeles County are encouraged to prepare for the likelihood of very heavy tropical rainfall across the Southwest U.S and all of Southern California and Central California with a potential landfall focus on Santa Barbara to San Diego counties this holiday weekend. In addition also the threat of mud and debris flows in all burn areas from the last 5 years. Especially in Pacific Palisades and Eaton major burn scar zones from the horrific January 7 - 8, 2025 firestorm residents need to remain vigilant. Estimated rainfall amounts and current trajectories are expected to exceed 3.0 to 5.0 inches, and rainfall amounts will continue to be adjusted for strength and trajectory over the course of the next 32 - 72 hours. There will be more critical updates this entire week will follow as this extremely rare situation unfolds due to the strong El Nino present. #CAwx #HurricaneSeason2026 #ElNiño
Jason D Farhang46,798 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Thursday, May 28, 2026, 7:17 AM: It's not every day you wake up late in May and see a robust system that originated from off the coast of the Siberian peninsula three weeks ago now affecting California with a deep, unusually cold Siberian 552 DM low axis. Currently, this system is causing stormy weather in the Bay Area and unstable weather trending for a large part of our region with multiple embedded disturbances rotating around the parent low that is slowly moving throughout the state. There's a possible chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon in San Joaquin, Bakersfield, and maybe as far south as Santa Barbara County. One of these embedded disturbances may even reach as far south as western Los Angeles County by at least 7PM. However, the third low axis creates deep cyclonic flow there may be more showers due to a deep marine layer deck hovering 4,300 feet from Santa Barbara to San Diego counties. The temperatures will remain very March-like in the 67°F - 72°F range, and even colder in the mountains above 6,000 feet at 51°F - 54°F during the day, and at night 32°F - 35°F at higher elevations above 7,000 feet. The system will move into Texas by Friday at 4 PM and cause a new round of severe weather opportunities and flooding concerns. #CAwx #rain #May
Jason D Farhang104,547 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
Monday, July 27, 2026, 5:33 AM PDT/ 8:33 AM EDT: Hurricane Genevieve has become the most powerful storm on Earth, currently with sustained winds of 160 miles per hour. It is currently located 545 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, and is moving west-northwest at 13 miles an hour with this latest update. This eastern Pacific hurricane season, many months ago, was warned as a harbinger for major concern due to the strong progressive intensification, strong El Niño, and ongoing marine heat wave, which is a prime example of how the weather conditions were ready for a sudden rapid intensification process from a mere tropical storm to an unforgiving category five in less than 24 hours. Current sea surface temperatures range from 86°F to 94°F for optimal strength and little to no shearing in the mid levels and upper levels of the atmosphere to let the storm continue to plow through the eastern Pacific like an ox. #CAwx #AZwx #Genevieve #Cabo #ElNiño
Jason D Farhang65,026 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад
Friday October 9, 2026, 9:46 PM: The latest HRRR 0Z shows an even more northward trajectory, with very heavy rainfall for all of Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, and San Diego counties starting Saturday at 7 PM through - Monday 11AM. Rainfall amounts of 0.95 inches to 3.0 inches look solid with this tropical event for the region. Rainfall amounts may trend higher in the next few updates with Rachel. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are likely with this combo system of the Gulf of Alaska low axis off of Santa Barbara, California by 80 to 110 miles and Rachel close to TJ. More details will continue to be updated in the next 6 to 12 hours as this continues to get more significant as we head into the upcoming weekend. #CAwx #Rachel #HurricaneSeason2026
Jason D Farhang17,280 просмотров • 20 дней назад
Saturday September 5, 2026, 6:30 PM: The latest water vapor shows Marie moving northwest at 5 MPH. This moisture slowly progresses into Southern California particularly Los Angeles County from Sunday 10AM - 7PM. Marie's center is not expected to enter Southern California. Rainfall amounts are variable in the next 24 - 36 hours. #CAwx #Marie
Jason D Farhang31,959 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Sunday, September 13, 2026 10:27 AM: The latest water vapor satellite shows two 564 DM Gulf of Alaskan Low’s approximately 300 miles apart one off of Washington and Oregon and another in the central Pacific is an indication that our weather is starting to change to that late fall and winter pattern very shortly, influenced by our ongoing strong El Niño development. The current Gulf of Alaskan Low’s are influencing much cooler welcoming weather for the majority of the Western United States for the next four-day period. The monsoonal high axis will move back over central and Northern Arizona and eastern sections of Southern California, including Nevada by this upcoming weekend. Unfortunately, most likely another 592 to 594 DM high-pressure axis is still being looked at closely in our region. This will trend to bring back the uncomfortable heat index and high humidity and that includes dew points 55F - 64F with temperatures of 95° to 103° possible especially for the Inland valleys and desert locations and perhaps isolated parts of the coastal plain are in question. Depending on the exact position of the high-pressure axis on this upcoming Friday at 2 AM, reinforcement of Gulf of Alaska lows will also play a critical role with the ongoing active tropics and it’s teleconnecting moisture and trajectory outlook for the region. Simultaneously have the eastern Pacific hurricane season is in prime peak time. In addition more tropical systems off Acapulco, Mexico current 97E, and a new disturbance for a secondary tropical system taking shape by Thursday at 4 PM. More details are developing and I am continuing to watch this over the next 32 to 72 hours, with complex weather situations developing for our region. #CAwx #heatwave #HurricaneSeason2026 #ElNiño
Jason D Farhang26,416 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Sunday September 27, 2026, 8:05 AM: Latest satellite shows Polo nearing Baja, California, and Odalyis remnants of moisture into Southern California with a weak cold front far to the north in San Francisco. This type of atmospheric setup will allow lower levels of the atmosphere to moisten up with some daytime heating and possible convection. Humidty levels this morning are 85% to 95% with dew points 70F to 74F quite humid tropical air mass in our region. It is quite surreal to see a powerful hurricane, just to the south of Southern California of that intensity definitely showing up were already in a very strong El Nino. #CAwx #HurricaneSeason2026 #ElNiño
Jason D Farhang17,243 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
The latest EU1 0Z 8/29/2026 6:00 AM: Look at the surface observation. This is how you know that something’s up the main surface high is removed northwestward and a moderate surface low-pressure system that is off Northern California between September 4 - 10, 2026 is going to be pulling this named system and its moisture northward trajectory with the monsoonal axis providing favorable steering just like Hillary has been talking about all summer long. Interesting times ahead. #CAwx #hurricaneseason #ElNiño
Jason D Farhang28,295 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Friday, September 18, 2026, 4:47 AM: The most recent EU1 and GFS 6Z models indicate early indications of tropical activity in the eastern Pacific is developing, with a potential positioning and axis of the Gulf of Alaska low in the Southwest U.S. around Monday September 28 to Wednesday September 30, 2026 is closely being analyzed. Especially since we have sea surface temperatures of 78 to 82° across Southern California down to Ensenada, Mexico due to our very strong El Niño continues to get stronger. Disclaimer: It is important to note that the presence of a tropical teleconnection does not necessarily imply a direct threat of a tropical system to Southern California. Drawing parallels to previous weather events, such as the interaction between the Gulf of Alaska low and remnants of Marie which brought increased moisture to parts of LA County over Labor Day weekend, I am closely monitoring this new weather situation. The specific areas of Southern California that may be affected remain uncertain at this time. This will be evolving depending on the position again on the positioning of the Gulf of Alaska low. It is crucial to emphasize that my forecast is still in its very early preliminary stages for our region. #CAwx
Jason D Farhang20,273 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
Monday, March 10, 2025, 8:56 AM PDT: A storm is approaching Southern California. The weather will start changing later this afternoon at 3 PM as this cut-off low has now fixated its trajectory towards Los Angeles, California later on tonight mostly after 7 PM into Tuesday thunderstorms are starting to develop in the system. I’m closely watching this as this evolves for our region. As of right now, Santa Barbara to San Diego counties need to pay attention to the system very closely in the next 10 - 24 hours for heavier rainfall is trending. #CAwx #CaliforniaStorms #CutoffLow
Jason D Farhang158,184 просмотров • 1 год назад
On Monday, June 1, 2026, at 8:29 AM, it is noted that today marks the commencement of meteorological summer and the official commencement of hurricane season. However, a new Siberian low is currently forming off the coast of the Siberian Peninsula and is now moving towards the Gulf of Alaska region. This may potentially impact the weather later this week in the Pacific Northwest, Oregon, and potentially parts of California. Therefore, I am closely monitoring the situation as forecast solutions are indicating the possibility of increased precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, and maybe as far south as Western Los Angeles counties. This low axis could cause strengthening of onshore flow gradients which in turn amplifies the intensification of the June gloom marine layer deck along the coastal areas from Pismo Beach to San Diego possibly causing drizzle or light rain once again. #CAwx
Jason D Farhang50,752 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
Monday August 24, 2026, 1:40 PM: Latest EU1 and 0Z show an uptick in eastern Pacific hurricane activity September 2 - 9, 2026 as an area low-latitude strong low-pressure axis off the coast of Central and Northern California and a tropical system moving northward trajectory from Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. potentially bring moisture in the desert southwest and Southern California is still up for grabs. More details are still being looked at this upcoming week and early next week for more updates to come. Again as I said before multiple times during this summer 2026. The best time for tropical activity in tandem with a strong monsoonal easterly wave is late August to early October is the best time to see the atmospheric alignment come into play with a strong El Nino. Remember the peak of hurricane season from August 26 through September 15, 2026. I'm watching the next 24 - 48 hours on this weather situation. In the meantime, we have to get through this very dangerous heatwave that is upon us and on the peripheral edge of the monsoonal high axis giving that high humidity and heat index to our region. #CAwx #hurricaneseason #Monsoon #ElNiño
Jason D Farhang25,619 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Friday August 14, 2026, 10:10 PM: Lala is about to become a full-fledged hurricane and hit the southern end of the Big Island of Hawaii, with rainfall amounts of 12.5 to 27 inches by Saturday at 9 PM. The storm is expected to rapidly strengthen in the next 6 to 12 hours to a Category 1 storm. Also, Maui and Oahu will see 4.5 to 8.0 inches of rainfall by Sunday 12PM. This tropical system will have large waves up to 15 feet especially for the Southern and eastern sections of the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui. This system will have high threshold rainfall rates of 2.5 to 3.0 inches an hour which will cause mudslides and down trees and power lines through Sunday at 7 PM. A state of emergency has been declared for Hawaii due to this rare tropical system that influenced by the ongoing strengthening of El Nino allowing more favorable trajectories to the Hawaiian islands. #Lala #hawaii #ElNiño
Jason D Farhang27,674 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад