Jason D Farhang
@jason61987 • 12,415 subscribers
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Thursday, May 28, 2026, 7:17 AM: It's not every day you wake up late in May and see a robust system that originated from off the coast of the Siberian peninsula three weeks ago now affecting California with a deep, unusually cold Siberian 552 DM low axis. Currently, this system is causing stormy weather in the Bay Area and unstable weather trending for a large part of our region with multiple embedded disturbances rotating around the parent low that is slowly moving throughout the state. There's a possible chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon in San Joaquin, Bakersfield, and maybe as far south as Santa Barbara County. One of these embedded disturbances may even reach as far south as western Los Angeles County by at least 7PM. However, the third low axis creates deep cyclonic flow there may be more showers due to a deep marine layer deck hovering 4,300 feet from Santa Barbara to San Diego counties. The temperatures will remain very March-like in the 67°F - 72°F range, and even colder in the mountains above 6,000 feet at 51°F - 54°F during the day, and at night 32°F - 35°F at higher elevations above 7,000 feet. The system will move into Texas by Friday at 4 PM and cause a new round of severe weather opportunities and flooding concerns. #CAwx #rain #May
Jason D Farhang104,368 görüntüleme • 13 gün önce
Sunday, April 19, 2026, 7:57 AM: The latest satellite imagery shows the 545 DM low axis has rapidly intensified over the very warm Pacific waters in the last 12 hours. The main storm energy has shifted southward by 200 miles in its trajectory. This gives a higher opportunity allowing for more impacts not just to Northern California but also Southern California by Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night to get even more rainfall and yes elevated thunderstorm development is not out of the question for San Luis Obispo to Los Angeles counties. I'm watching this evolving weather situation closely in the next 24 - 36 hours. Also, due to the placement of the low pressure, this could give a real significant severe weather threat for the Sacramento Valley and the Bay Area Monday night through Tuesday afternoon so this also may become even more convective than it was just 24 hours ago. This also gives a higher than 50% probability of low-grade tornadoes in the San Joaquin Valley by Tuesday afternoon or at least storm cells that could produce significant hail as well. Due to the warming of the Pacific, this will become more common as more storms will continue to develop at a rapid pace and become more severe across North America. Which you already saw in the upper Midwest last week. #CAwx
Jason D Farhang44,482 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Saturday March 14, 2026, 8:02 AM: There it is March 28 - 30, 2026 Latest 6Z GFS🍍. Showing rain back into California. This is the same storm currently in Hawaii. Once the Heat wave collapses after March 20, 2026, the pattern will start transitioning by March 25 and now for the 6th time showing in the last 2 weeks signal changes after March 25, 2026. This is beginning to look like a rinse and repeat situation of what we had from January was hot to February storms. Now March is hot, and the end of March to April brings storms. • Major Heat wave builds Monday 1PM - Thursday 7PM. Temps 96F - 101F this is happening. Drink plenty of water and electrolytes. It will feel like Summer time in March for: San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego counties. Honestly just head to the beach and enjoy this. #CAwx #Heat
Jason D Farhang47,827 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
Tuesday, April 14, 2026 at 6:52 AM: What you have witnessed yesterday and this past weekend across California and parts of Southern California is the birth pains of an El Niño development and the ongoing escalation the warming of the Pacific torrential rains came through the San Fernando Valley with such strong, thunderstorms that it caused significant flooding in the Sherman Oaks, Universal City area around 1:05 PM - 1:35 PM yesterday on April 13, 2026. This powerful storm packed winds gusts of over 50 mph and it’s a true testament that we are no longer in a pattern that brings rain in just winter time but is now extending into April and May and beyond with that said we have another storm on the heels that will be arriving very quickly on April 21 - 27, 2026. The next storm will also bring more heavy rain, thunder, and lightning, and yes, more snowfall to the local mountains. As the Pacific continues to warm, the weather will become more drastic with extreme heat waves and more unusual severe rain events for California. This situation will get quite scary if it continues to verify by the end of October and November with the super El Niño development and the atmosphere connecting something that we’ve not seen since 1982, 1997/ 1998. The main Marshall Islands low axis is already gearing up for this major event this year which you’ve seen an example already. The flooding in the Hawaiian islands. Typhoon Sinlaku has now hit the Guam region with a category five status this early in April all due to the warming of the Pacific and the emergence of El Niño. #CAwx
Jason D Farhang28,602 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Monday, March 10, 2025, 8:56 AM PDT: A storm is approaching Southern California. The weather will start changing later this afternoon at 3 PM as this cut-off low has now fixated its trajectory towards Los Angeles, California later on tonight mostly after 7 PM into Tuesday thunderstorms are starting to develop in the system. I’m closely watching this as this evolves for our region. As of right now, Santa Barbara to San Diego counties need to pay attention to the system very closely in the next 10 - 24 hours for heavier rainfall is trending. #CAwx #CaliforniaStorms #CutoffLow
Jason D Farhang158,184 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
On Tuesday, December 23, 2025, at 11:38 AM, a potent Pacific storm resulting from the warming of the Pacific Ocean is beginning to emerge. It is currently located approximately 145 miles off the coast of Santa Cruz, California. This storm system is expected to strengthen, leading to the formation of a robust frontal boundary by 4 PM today, bringing rain and potential thunderstorms to the area as early as 11 PM tonight. Moreover, a significant amount of moisture is being transported from the Hawaiian Islands, Fiji, and the Marshall Islands, which could result in an additional 4.5 to 9 inches of rainfall starting from 11 PM tonight through Christmas Eve, exacerbating the risk of flooding. Particularly hazardous conditions are anticipated for Santa Barbara, Ventura County, Los Angeles County, Orange County, Riverside County, San Bernardino County, and San Diego County, with a high potential for flooding in areas affected by recent wildfires. Precautions should be taken, as damaging winds of up to 55 to 80 miles per hour gusts are forecasted to impact San Francisco by late Tuesday night at 8 PM, and Los Angeles by 5 AM to 10 AM on Christmas Eve. This moisture-laden system is expected to bring perceptible water values of 1.3 to 1.6 inches of water, potentially making it the wettest storm since December 2004 or even December 2010. It is crucial to be prepared for this significant weather event, with further updates expected as conditions deteriorate over the next 24 to 48 hours. #CAwx
Jason D Farhang64,414 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce
On Friday, November 28, 2025, at 2:50 PM, the latest satellite shows a significant and quite dynamic 545 DM low axis located approximately 430 miles to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Influenced by the continuous warming of the Pacific Ocean. Additionally, there is a secondary 555 DM low axis situated off the coast of Oregon and Washington state, which is expected to retrogress by next Tuesday according to the latest guidance and atmospheric jet streak that undercuts a strong ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. The consistent forecast over the last five days of the CPC continues to forecast the Central and Southern California trajectory to be affected by these systems. However, I am closely monitoring the trajectory of the double low axis as it has the potential to develop into a robust cut-off low pattern 70 miles off the coast of Santa Barbara to Los Angeles counties, which could lead to a period of interesting and very unsettled weather conditions as we head into the next work week. More updated details to come in the next 24 - 72 hours. #CAwx
Jason D Farhang58,496 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce
Saturday, March 14, 2026 10:50 AM: The latest satellite imagery shows that the powerful Kona Low has tripled in size over the last 36 hours. You can clearly see that the teleconnection from the Marshall Islands is firmly in place. It is interesting to note that the 545 DM low axis is located about 200 miles northwest of Kauai, while a secondary stationary 535 DM low axis remains positioned near the Marshall Islands. A secondary disturbance continuing to train across the region next week, and in addition solutions hint that part of this secondary system may be waiting for the unseasonable 594 DM high pressure ridge over the Southwestern United States to slowly break down around March 21– 23, 2026. Shortly afterward, between March 25- 31, 2026, models are trending toward a possible disturbance from that secondary low axis potentially moving toward the Western United States perhaps Southern California, as indicated by the latest 6Z GFS run this morning. #CAwx
Jason D Farhang29,677 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
Thursday November 27, 2025, 4:00 PM: A series of storm systems is currently forming over the unusually warm Pacific Ocean on this Thanksgiving Day. I’m observing an exponential increase in robust storm activity as the Pacific jet extension stream strengthens over the next 72 - 96 hours. The atmospheric conditions are growing with higher confidence showing across EU1 and CPC now satellite view showing the full display of these storms for December 4 - 10, 2025. I will continue to closely monitor the situation over the next 24 - 42 hours as this system #CAwx
Jason D Farhang48,684 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce
Friday, November 7, 2025, at 8:00 AM PDT: There it is folks the storm is brewing off of central portion of the Pacific right now. Significant rainfall for Southern California starting as early as Wednesday night through Saturday, but this is a progressive storm pattern that’s going to continue to escalate due to the warming of the Pacific so this is just the start of what’s to come. We need to be prepared for potential mudslides in recent major burn areas such as Easton and Pacific Palisades burn scar zones. Next Thursday through next Sunday now the potential for the system to have more major impacts such as road flooding, high wind potential, and possibly even isolated power outages with some strong to severe thunderstorms that could be embedded with the system. The two moisture sources originate from the Marshall Islands, and the Hawaiian Islands are trending now. Before this big weather shift all comes about we are going to be seeing again 92 to 95° temperatures a light Santa Ana wind event and offshore flow majority of Santa Barbara to San Diego counties, this upcoming Saturday to Monday. We are going to get pretty toasty across our region and then the rains will come almost similar to November 1997 all over again. #CAwx
Jason D Farhang32,026 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce
On Tuesday, February 3, 2026, at 1:46 PM, the most recent CPC report confirms what has been predicted throughout January 2026. It is anticipated that February will bring wet weather conditions. With the weakening of the polar vortex, the storm door is expected to reopen for California. #CAwx
Jason D Farhang19,758 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
February 19, 2026, at 4:53 PM: Latest EU1 shows another trending storm taking shape but this one is a warm base origin around March 4 - 10, 2026. We will get a little bit of a break from rains next week. It will warm back up into the 75F to 80 degree possibly due to a brief 582 DM high axis building into Central and Southern California on February 26 to March 3, 2026. Then the weather will come roaring back in, but this time possibly, and it is still being looked at from the Hawaiian islands stay tuned. #CAwx
Jason D Farhang17,564 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Thursday, March 28, 2024, 9:06 AM PST: According to the most recent HRRR values, a remarkably powerful storm is projected to impact the entirety of California. This storm has the potential to impede the initial forceful cold front moving toward Santa Barbara and Los Angeles counties. This, in turn, may result in the utilization of subtropical moisture originating from the Marshall Islands. Consequently, an extended period of continuous moderate to heavy rainfall, lasting longer than 3 to 8 hours, is anticipated. Additionally, the presence of embedded thunderstorms and gusty southerly winds, reaching speeds of 45 to 50 mph, is expected. These intensifying rainfall rates could escalate the risk of mudslides, landslides, and urban flooding during the timeframe of Saturday, from 3 AM to 4 PM. Stay informed and prepared for the California storms during the upcoming Easter Weekend. Please take the necessary precautions. #EasterWeekend #ElNino #Californiastorms
Jason D Farhang74,173 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce
Wednesday, March 4, 2026, 6:55 AM: A series of strong to moderate wind events. The first wind event will impact not just Northern California but also Central and Southern California in the next 72 hours. Let me explain. The initial wind event will affect Northern California as a surface cold front crashes through, with north winds gusts reaching 45 to 60 mph. This particular wind event will impact the Napa, Santa Rosa, and San Francisco regions from Wednesday noon through about 1 PM Thursday, when the cold front moves down into Bakersfield, kicking up dust and debris and potentially causing issues on the 5 Freeway and 99. This will likely have impacts later tonight through Thursday. Meanwhile, in Southern California, northwest wind gusts are projected to reach 40 to 55 mph, possibly causing trees to fall and powerlines to collapse early Thursday morning and continuing through Thursday night. This will also affect Long Beach, California, which is quite unusual for these events. A secondary low-pressure axis will take shape, arriving on Saturday at 4AM to Sunday at 12PM positioning itself near Yuma, Arizona. This atmospheric setup with allow asurface high over Santa Cruz, California of a 1025 millibar high will create ideal conditions for a strong and potentially strong Santa Ana wind event for Southern California particularly the corridor from Santa Clarita to Camarillo around 55 to 65 mph, creating potential for destructive power lines to come down. Unfortunately, this very strong wind will cause mountain waves in the San Fernando Valley and Malibu region. The good news is that we will not see significant fire activity due to the recent tremendous rainfall we experienced in mid February 2026 and in December 2025. However, Saturday 2AM - 9AM there is concern that we could see even isolated stronger winds in Altadena and Pasadena that could exceed 65 MPH gusts. I am closely monitoring the situation, as this very windy period will also affect Las Vegas and parts of Arizona with gusts of 45MPH - 65 MPH. If you are traveling in those areas, please be aware of blowing dust and debris on highways. #CAwx
Jason D Farhang14,923 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Wednesday February 11, 2026, 5:50 AM: Ferocious Siberian storm and deep central Pacific moisture axis arrive in Northern California on Sunday 6AM - Wednesday 9PM. Impactful widespread heavy rainfall 2.8 to 6.7 inches of rain for all SoCal, from San Luis Obispo to San Diego counties and that includes Northern California and Central California we all have impactful storm issues.  Bullseye heaviest severe impact is from Santa Barbara to Los Angeles Counties up to 3.7 to 8.5 inches of rainfall. This includes the Eaton fire burn scar zone and the Pacific Palisades burn scar zone. For the potential for higher confidence in mudslides. Accompanied by the storm are gusty powerful winds up to 65 MPH. Due to the cold nature of the system low elevation snowfall is projected at 2,500 feet least 2 - 6 inches expected this includes Antelope, Apple, and Lucerne valleys. Possible northernmost foothills of the Simi Valley, Santa Clarita, and San Fernando Valley. Still watching the details on the snow level for the northern valleys that’s still being looked at closely as a storm approaches in the next 24 to 36 hours so that part is not set in stone yet. Central and Northern California will have a 30% chance of sea level snowfall between Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Higher confidence snowfall at 4,500 feet is projected to range from 6 to 12 inches of fresh powder. Higher accumulations of at 18 - 46 inches of snowfall in the local mountains of San Gabriel and San Bernardino starting at 5,500 feet Lake Arrowhead, Crestline, Big Bear may have a déjà vu moment of potential significant snow issues are trending be aware of this. This is just for cautionary purposes. Northern California Sierra Mountains: Truckee, Lake, Tahoe, Mount Shasta, and the Central Sierra’s of Yosemite and Mammoth Mountain will end up with 4 - 8 feet of snowfall if not isolated higher amounts are not out of the question. Strong winds gusting above 6,000 feet of 45 to 70 mph could cause whiteout conditions and deplorable travel conditions. The storm will have impacts on the five corridor Grapevine and Cajon Pass interstate 15 to Las Vegas please prepare for winter travel if you must travel expect closures and lengthy delays. Flooding will severely impact all freeways and highways and urban flooding is high confidence across much of Southern California, Central California, and Northern California, and is certain during this period. Please give yourself at least 2 to 3 hours before your travel time to work or school especially on Monday 6AM - 11AM This is critically important for the state of California. Trending confidence this is the biggest storm at this point to February 1 - 4, 2024, and February 24 - March 1, 2023, are the most recent trending similar storm impacts with this upcoming storm. Be safe everyone more detailed updates will continue over the next several days on this high-profile storm event. #CAwx #Califorinastorms J. Mesh, AMS 🇺🇸 SoCalWeather.net Rick Dickert L.A. in a Minute Ginger Zee Cece Woods SnowPals.org SF, CA 🌨️⛷️🏂 Drone Daddy News, OC Western Mogollon Rim Weather Josh Morgerman Rob Mayeda Edgar McGregor
Jason D Farhang16,565 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
On Tuesday, February 3, 2026, at 7:14 AM, the relentless weeks of historic harsh polar vortex that has kept two thirds of the nation below zero temperatures for more than three weeks have finally begun to show signs of very slight weakening in the eastern and Midwestern regions, leading to a gradual breakdown of the barrier block ridge in the western United States and Greenland block axis. For the last several weeks I have mentioned that once the atmospheric blocking pattern eases up. The main storm opportunities across the Pacific Ocean are continuing build stronger due to warming of the Pacific and now since Sunday the last few CPC forecasts have finally increased precipitation probability for our area; however, further details are still emerging. Currently, it appears that a colder storm from the Gulf of Alaska is approaching, bringing the possibility of hints of much-needed local snowfall and a return to winter rainfall to the valleys and basin between February 9 - 14, 2026. Rainfall and snowfall amounts are still being looked at extremely closely. Despite these much needed looming significant changes next week. This week will still have continuous offshore flow and moderate Santa Ana winds from Santa Clarita to Camarillo N/NE gusts 35MPH - 45MPH will persist until Saturday, with elevated temperatures ranging from 85F to 89F across much of Southern California on Wednesday to Friday. The Windiest day will be on February 4, 2026, mostly from Ventura to Western L.A Counties and Cajon Pass to coastal Orange Counties moderate offshore flow as well. #CAwx
Jason D Farhang16,057 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce
Tuesday, March 31, 2026, 7:44 AM: Latest infrared satellite shows the healthy plume of moisture extending from the Hawaiian Islands directly to California. However, why are we getting lighter rainfall, and why isn’t anyone talking about it? There’s a surface high we’ve had this last year with one or two storms where the surface high is south of San Diego. Currently, this surface high axis 1019mb has been extremely stubborn the last 24 hours, it’s finally starting to move southward on a trajectory into Rosarito Mexico, which is allowing for the plume axis to deepen and moisten lower and mid levels of the atmosphere a little bit throughout the afternoon and evening. The reason is so dry here with a constant offshore flow pattern for the whole month of March 2026 due to the recent historic major heat wave that we just experienced this atmospheric process takes time to cultivate. The main frontal boundary timing will be making its way into Northern and Central California from 9AM to 4PM. Secondary journey of the front will make it into Central and Southern California by 5 PM through 1 AM Wednesday. Now as the atmosphere moistens up a bit there’s also an embedded two impulses that will be associated with this frontal boundary that will move into western Santa Barbara to Western Los Angeles counties Tuesday 5PM through 4 AM Wednesday that could boost rainfall totals a little bit higher. In addition, there will definitely be a lot of stronger onshore gradients for the development of westerly winds into the Apple, Lucerne, and Antelope Valleys. This includes Las Vegas with gusts up to 35MPH - 50MPH by this late afternoon into early evening. Possible blowing dust is not out of the question on the I-15 corridor and the 1-10 freeway through Palm Springs and the Coachella Valley, beware of this hazard today. Temperatures will remain 65F - 72F the coolest it’s been since mid-February so a little taste of winter is back in our region. I’m still watching the main surface high axis movement to the south as well as all parameters to see if they fall into place by 8PM. Still a very tricky forecast even on this Tuesday. That's why I wanted to explain the atmospheric anatomy of why this forecast is so difficult not just looking at the modeling and ensembles, but the whole atmospheric picture of this forecast. #CAwx
Jason D Farhang10,243 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
