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The Kobeissi Letter

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Official X account for The Kobeissi Letter, an industry leading commentary on the global capital markets. Email us: [email protected]

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The Japanese Yen is broken. Intervention to support the Yen has become a near-monthly occurrence, with the US now even stepping in to help stabilize the currency. In the analysis below, we break down every major Yen intervention of 2026 so far. Japan is a preview of what will happen to the US if we do not control deficit spending and inflation immediately. No healthy market sees regular "intervention."

The Japanese Yen is broken. Intervention to support the Yen has become a near-monthly occurrence, with the US now even stepping in to help stabilize the currency. In the analysis below, we break down every major Yen intervention of 2026 so far. Japan is a preview of what will happen to the US if we do not control deficit spending and inflation immediately. No healthy market sees regular "intervention."

414,103 просмотров

If Nvidia, $NVDA, actually reports $108 billion in revenue for Q3 as they are guiding, that would mark +1,730% growth in 4 years. Never in history has a company of this size grown at such a fast pace. Once again, we are witnessing history.

If Nvidia, $NVDA, actually reports $108 billion in revenue for Q3 as they are guiding, that would mark +1,730% growth in 4 years. Never in history has a company of this size grown at such a fast pace. Once again, we are witnessing history.

713,549 просмотров

15 months ago, Micron, $MU, was worth just $60 billion producing $8.1 billion in quarterly revenue. Today, it's worth $1.3 trillion and producing $41.5 billion in quarterly revenue. Rarely ever does the world experience a revolution like we are seeing right now now.

15 months ago, Micron, $MU, was worth just $60 billion producing $8.1 billion in quarterly revenue. Today, it's worth $1.3 trillion and producing $41.5 billion in quarterly revenue. Rarely ever does the world experience a revolution like we are seeing right now now.

1,188,128 просмотров

American consumers are now facing 7%+ mortgage rates, 4.2%+ inflation, and a 30% loss in the purchasing power of the US Dollar since 2020. Meanwhile, US CPI inflation continues to follow a similar trajectory as the late 1970s. Will history repeat itself?

American consumers are now facing 7%+ mortgage rates, 4.2%+ inflation, and a 30% loss in the purchasing power of the US Dollar since 2020. Meanwhile, US CPI inflation continues to follow a similar trajectory as the late 1970s. Will history repeat itself?

1,241,068 просмотров

The biggest lesson of the AI era: never get comfortable. On June 2nd, IBM, $IBM, was up +13% for the year and trading at its highest level on record. Today, just 42 days later, $IBM fell -25% posting its biggest daily decline since 1968. The stock is now down -35% in 42 days erasing over -$100 billion in market cap. AI is rapidly transforming the global economy. Adapt or be left behind.

The biggest lesson of the AI era: never get comfortable. On June 2nd, IBM, $IBM, was up +13% for the year and trading at its highest level on record. Today, just 42 days later, $IBM fell -25% posting its biggest daily decline since 1968. The stock is now down -35% in 42 days erasing over -$100 billion in market cap. AI is rapidly transforming the global economy. Adapt or be left behind.

569,924 просмотров

Exactly 4 days ago: "Boy, Micron is great... they could invest over $100 billion in New York." Micron stock, $MU, has now added +$160 BILLION in market cap today alone. The stock is now up +1,350% since April 2025.

Exactly 4 days ago: "Boy, Micron is great... they could invest over $100 billion in New York." Micron stock, $MU, has now added +$160 BILLION in market cap today alone. The stock is now up +1,350% since April 2025.

954,690 просмотров

Inflation in the US is now up to levels that were last seen after $4 trillion in pandemic stimulus was handed out for "free." The worst part? Most Americans have no idea that it is happening.

Inflation in the US is now up to levels that were last seen after $4 trillion in pandemic stimulus was handed out for "free." The worst part? Most Americans have no idea that it is happening.

630,769 просмотров

It was a historic day for markets. Over 500 million shares of SpaceX, $SPCX, were traded today, with volume exceeding $80 BILLION. SpaceX is now the 7th largest public company in the world. Congratulations to all!

It was a historic day for markets. Over 500 million shares of SpaceX, $SPCX, were traded today, with volume exceeding $80 BILLION. SpaceX is now the 7th largest public company in the world. Congratulations to all!

613,752 просмотров

The 10Y Note Yield is now nearing 4.70% and a fresh 52-week high. This puts the 10Y Note Yield up over +70 basis points since the Iran War began. The market continues to brace for an energy shock.

The 10Y Note Yield is now nearing 4.70% and a fresh 52-week high. This puts the 10Y Note Yield up over +70 basis points since the Iran War began. The market continues to brace for an energy shock.

281,326 просмотров

BREAKING: President Trump says the US will be "selling large amounts of oil" pumped from Venezuela. Trump also says US oil companies will be "reimbursed" for spending billions to build new infrastructure in Venezuela.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US will be "selling large amounts of oil" pumped from Venezuela. Trump also says US oil companies will be "reimbursed" for spending billions to build new infrastructure in Venezuela.

1,417,714 просмотров

Crypto markets have now seen their largest ever 8-month decline in market cap, at -$2.3 trillion.

Crypto markets have now seen their largest ever 8-month decline in market cap, at -$2.3 trillion.

410,661 просмотров

President Trump effectively announces that Kevin Hassett will be the next Fed Chair. 2026 is going to be a wild year.

President Trump effectively announces that Kevin Hassett will be the next Fed Chair. 2026 is going to be a wild year.

1,219,288 просмотров

BREAKING: President Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries who opposite his plan for the US to acquire Greenland.

BREAKING: President Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries who opposite his plan for the US to acquire Greenland.

679,831 просмотров

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has shut down Ras Tanura, its largest oil refinery, following an Iranian drone strike. Ras Tanura processes 550,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has shut down Ras Tanura, its largest oil refinery, following an Iranian drone strike. Ras Tanura processes 550,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

507,249 просмотров

BREAKING: President Trump says he is announcing his new Fed Chair pick tomorrow morning.

BREAKING: President Trump says he is announcing his new Fed Chair pick tomorrow morning.

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Jim Cramer warns of a potential "Black Monday" scenario this week and suggests the S&P 500 could fall 22% on Monday.

Jim Cramer warns of a potential "Black Monday" scenario this week and suggests the S&P 500 could fall 22% on Monday.

1,140,531 просмотров

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Nobody convinced me [to not strike Iran]. I convinced myself."

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Nobody convinced me [to not strike Iran]. I convinced myself."

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BREAKING: President Trump says the US just received 80 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US just received 80 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil.

351,966 просмотров

BREAKING: President Trump reportedly tells CNN that the "big wave is yet to come" regarding US military operations in Iran.

BREAKING: President Trump reportedly tells CNN that the "big wave is yet to come" regarding US military operations in Iran.

300,047 просмотров

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You are not watching the bond market closely enough. President Trump is now threatening that the US Military could be utilized for further intervention to lower US Treasury yields. "The ultimate intervention is our military, and if we have to use that we will." Watch bonds.

You are not watching the bond market closely enough. President Trump is now threatening that the US Military could be utilized for further intervention to lower US Treasury yields. "The ultimate intervention is our military, and if we have to use that we will." Watch bonds.

The Kobeissi Letter

1,481,349 просмотров • 16 дней назад

New footage captures the moment the Iranian delegation supposedly left the negotiation venue in Switzerland in "protest" over President Trump's threats VP JD Vance proceeds to speak with Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif following the Iranians' exit.

New footage captures the moment the Iranian delegation supposedly left the negotiation venue in Switzerland in "protest" over President Trump's threats VP JD Vance proceeds to speak with Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif following the Iranians' exit.

The Kobeissi Letter

2,992,431 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

BREAKING: President Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is "over." "I don't want to deal with them anymore, they are scum," Trump says.

BREAKING: President Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is "over." "I don't want to deal with them anymore, they are scum," Trump says.

The Kobeissi Letter

1,871,029 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

What's happening now in gold and crypto should not come as a surprise. If it does come as a surprise, you are likely not following the correct leading indicators. This is the era of US Treasury intervention, elevated inflation, and record deficit spending. Below is a clip of our founder, Adam Kobeissi, on Fox Business with Charles V Payne exactly 37 days ago. As gold fell below $4,000/oz, we began calling for a rally to $4,500+ as market conditions were clearly shifting. Since then, gold has added +$4.5 trillion in market cap, Bitcoin is up +30%, and yields are roughly unchanged. Keep following the leading indicators. Asset owners are the only winners in this market.

What's happening now in gold and crypto should not come as a surprise. If it does come as a surprise, you are likely not following the correct leading indicators. This is the era of US Treasury intervention, elevated inflation, and record deficit spending. Below is a clip of our founder, Adam Kobeissi, on Fox Business with Charles V Payne exactly 37 days ago. As gold fell below $4,000/oz, we began calling for a rally to $4,500+ as market conditions were clearly shifting. Since then, gold has added +$4.5 trillion in market cap, Bitcoin is up +30%, and yields are roughly unchanged. Keep following the leading indicators. Asset owners are the only winners in this market.

The Kobeissi Letter

353,609 просмотров • 17 дней назад

A historic rotation is underway. On July 15th, Adam Kobeissi joined Fox Business and called for a rotation back into the Magnificent 7 to lead the S&P 500 to 8,000. The recent market leadership of chip stocks allowed the Magnificent 7 to correct, while still seeing historic earnings growth, without dragging the broader S&P 500 index lower. This was the largest such divergence between the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 since 2022. Less than 3 weeks since this clip with Adam Kobeissi and Charles V Payne, the S&P 500 is now above 7,700, Microsoft and Amazon are up +25% in 5 days, and the S&P 500 is worth a record $70 trillion. Many of these large cap technology names are now trading CHEAPER than the S&P 500 on a Forward P/E basis. Ironically, many stocks in this market are getting cheaper as they go up. Own assets or be left behind.

A historic rotation is underway. On July 15th, Adam Kobeissi joined Fox Business and called for a rotation back into the Magnificent 7 to lead the S&P 500 to 8,000. The recent market leadership of chip stocks allowed the Magnificent 7 to correct, while still seeing historic earnings growth, without dragging the broader S&P 500 index lower. This was the largest such divergence between the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 since 2022. Less than 3 weeks since this clip with Adam Kobeissi and Charles V Payne, the S&P 500 is now above 7,700, Microsoft and Amazon are up +25% in 5 days, and the S&P 500 is worth a record $70 trillion. Many of these large cap technology names are now trading CHEAPER than the S&P 500 on a Forward P/E basis. Ironically, many stocks in this market are getting cheaper as they go up. Own assets or be left behind.

The Kobeissi Letter

683,676 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

BREAKING: Crypto markets have now erased -$1 TRILLION in market cap since January 14th. That's -$1 trillion in market cap in 22 days, or -$45 billion per day. There has never been more noise in capital markets than now. Eliminate the noise.

BREAKING: Crypto markets have now erased -$1 TRILLION in market cap since January 14th. That's -$1 trillion in market cap in 22 days, or -$45 billion per day. There has never been more noise in capital markets than now. Eliminate the noise.

The Kobeissi Letter

5,405,789 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

BREAKING: President Trump says "I love the inflation" and explains why after US CPI inflation rises to 4.2%. Trump also announces that the US has been taking oil from Iran, including 22 ships of oil "last night."

BREAKING: President Trump says "I love the inflation" and explains why after US CPI inflation rises to 4.2%. Trump also announces that the US has been taking oil from Iran, including 22 ships of oil "last night."

The Kobeissi Letter

1,824,948 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "We are winning so much, that we really don't know what to do about it. People are asking me, please, please, please Mr. President, we are winning too much, we can't take it anymore."

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "We are winning so much, that we really don't know what to do about it. People are asking me, please, please, please Mr. President, we are winning too much, we can't take it anymore."

The Kobeissi Letter

3,305,286 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Absolutely incredible. ALL 7 hourly candlesticks on today's Nasdaq 100 chart were red as tech stocks fell in a literal straight-line lower. Biggest drop since "Liberation Day."

Absolutely incredible. ALL 7 hourly candlesticks on today's Nasdaq 100 chart were red as tech stocks fell in a literal straight-line lower. Biggest drop since "Liberation Day."

The Kobeissi Letter

1,190,582 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

BREAKING: President Trump says the US is "cutting off all trade with Spain." "I don't want anything to do with Spain," Trump says.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US is "cutting off all trade with Spain." "I don't want anything to do with Spain," Trump says.

The Kobeissi Letter

675,827 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Our stock market dip is peanuts, that stock market is going to be doubled." Trump says the Dow is "going to hit 50,000" and double to 100,000 "in a relatively short period of time."

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Our stock market dip is peanuts, that stock market is going to be doubled." Trump says the Dow is "going to hit 50,000" and double to 100,000 "in a relatively short period of time."

The Kobeissi Letter

2,779,307 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Absolutely incredible: Over the last 6 years, the S&P 500 has risen +130% while US Consumer Sentiment has collapsed by -55%, to its lowest since data began in 1952. We are witnessing the formation of the biggest wealth divide in modern history.

Absolutely incredible: Over the last 6 years, the S&P 500 has risen +130% while US Consumer Sentiment has collapsed by -55%, to its lowest since data began in 1952. We are witnessing the formation of the biggest wealth divide in modern history.

The Kobeissi Letter

1,020,559 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW: Trump: "Colombia is run by a sick man, he's not going to be doing it for very long." Reporter: "So there will be an operation by the US in Colombia?" Trump: "Sounds good to me."

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW: Trump: "Colombia is run by a sick man, he's not going to be doing it for very long." Reporter: "So there will be an operation by the US in Colombia?" Trump: "Sounds good to me."

The Kobeissi Letter

2,304,354 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

There has rarely been a market with more opportunity than now. The key to winning in this market? Tune out the noise. As shown in our below, our strategy has returned nearly 5 TIMES the S&P 500 since 2020, at +516.3%. And, we expect a highly eventful second half of 2026.

There has rarely been a market with more opportunity than now. The key to winning in this market? Tune out the noise. As shown in our below, our strategy has returned nearly 5 TIMES the S&P 500 since 2020, at +516.3%. And, we expect a highly eventful second half of 2026.

The Kobeissi Letter

786,153 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

The most costly trade of the last 12 months was investing in crypto over AI. Will that change?

The most costly trade of the last 12 months was investing in crypto over AI. Will that change?

The Kobeissi Letter

648,045 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Absolutely insane. Micron's, $MU, rally over the last 12 months makes the S&P 500's historic run look like a rounding error. What a time to be an investor.

Absolutely insane. Micron's, $MU, rally over the last 12 months makes the S&P 500's historic run look like a rounding error. What a time to be an investor.

The Kobeissi Letter

691,328 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

PRESIDENT TRUMP: “When the market goes up, the Fed should lower interest rates.” Fed Chair Powell “kills every rally,” Trump adds. You do not own enough assets.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: “When the market goes up, the Fed should lower interest rates.” Fed Chair Powell “kills every rally,” Trump adds. You do not own enough assets.

The Kobeissi Letter

1,626,577 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

BREAKING: President Trump says he will NOT take military action on Greenland. "I don't have to use force, I won't use force," Trump says. We are nearing step #8 of our tariff playbook.

BREAKING: President Trump says he will NOT take military action on Greenland. "I don't have to use force, I won't use force," Trump says. We are nearing step #8 of our tariff playbook.

The Kobeissi Letter

1,451,261 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

BREAKING: President Trump addresses the people of Iran: "Stay sheltered, don't leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside, bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. This will be probably your only chance for generations."

BREAKING: President Trump addresses the people of Iran: "Stay sheltered, don't leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside, bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. This will be probably your only chance for generations."

The Kobeissi Letter

930,334 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

There is a near-perfect correlation between US oil prices and US CPI inflation, as shown in our below analysis. Oil prices have averaged near $100/barrel since March 6th, or 79 days. The longer this persists, the more inflation we will see. Asset owners are the only winners.

There is a near-perfect correlation between US oil prices and US CPI inflation, as shown in our below analysis. Oil prices have averaged near $100/barrel since March 6th, or 79 days. The longer this persists, the more inflation we will see. Asset owners are the only winners.

The Kobeissi Letter

488,635 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад